Essex Junction, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

435
FXUS61 KBTV 152313
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
713 PM EDT Tue Apr 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and breezy conditions will continue this evening
as a surface front pushes eastward, bringing colder conditions.
Upslope snow showers will develop tonight and continue through
Wednesday, allowing for accumulating snow in portions of the
Adirondacks and northern Green Mountains. Dry conditions and warming
temperatures are favored for the end of the work week before another
system is expected to move through bringing more widespread rain
chances over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 712 PM EDT Tuesday...Minimal updates to the forecast this
evening as temperatures remain slightly warmer and dew points
slightly cooler than forecast. Otherwise, forecast on track with
the pattern shifting to more upslope snow showers.

Previous discussion...A surface front will continue to push
eastward across the region this evening, continuing to bring
some scattered showers and gusty winds to the region. Behind the
front, temperatures will continue to cool and a favorable
upslope regime will set up and continue through the day
tomorrow, bringing showery and cloudy conditions. Accumulating
snowfall will primarily be confined to the higher elevations of
the Adirondacks and Green Mountains, especially given the April
sun angle and limited snowfall rates. As the previous forecast
mentioned, given the limited impacts and extent over a longer
duration of time, no winter headlines have been issued although
some locally slick conditions may be possible. With the colder
air filtering in overnight, overnight lows tonight will be in
the 20s and 30s. High temperatures will struggle to warm
tomorrow as well, with highs only reaching the mid 30s and 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 326 PM EDT Tuesday...Once mountain snow showers come to an end
Thursday morning, the remainder of Thursday into Thursday night will
feature a quiet stretch of weather with deep-layer ridging cresting
overhead. Some afternoon breezes are expected as mixing height
increases to 850 mb, though breezes will be capped at 15 to 20 mph
due to light winds under the ridge. Highs will reach into the mid
40s to low 50s, but skies becoming mostly sunny through the
afternoon will bring the feeling of a little more spring warmth.
Clear skies and ridging overnight will allow lows Thursday night to
dip down to the low 20s to low 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 326 PM EDT Tuesday...As the ridge axis slides northeastward, a
low pressure system lifting northeastward out of the central US will
drive our weather Friday into Saturday. Rain showers will spread
into the area from west to east late Friday and become most numerous
in coverage Friday night/Saturday morning. Forecast soundings
continue to suggest some modest elevated instability will be present
across much of our forecast area Friday night into Saturday morning,
so have slight chance of thunderstorms mentioned in the forecast
during that time. Given the elevated nature of the instability, no
overnight severe weather threat anticipated at this time.

Rain showers with some embedded thunderstorms will continue into
Saturday. Some gusty winds are also expected, with gusts in the 15
to 25 mph range. Given some marginal surface instability during the
daytime coupled with 40 to 50 knot low level jet, some showers may
be accompanied by slightly stronger gusty winds. In additional,
marginal instability may help to increase rainfall rates. While our
QPF forecast doesn`t go out through the end of the system, a look a
probabilistic guidance suggests most reasonable range for expected
QPF out of this system will generally be between 0.1 and 0.5 inches.
Locally higher amounts will be locally possible within thunderstorms
and over favoured terrain of upslope locations. Showers will
diminish in coverage through Sunday, but additional chances for rain
return early in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR conditions, with occasional MVFR
ceilings and visibilities, will prevail across all terminals
for the next several hours with more widespread MVFR conditions
possible overnight, especially across mountain terminals. A cold
front pushing eastward is bringing isolated to scattered showers
to the region, with a stray thunderstorm possible. While most
terminals will remain VFR, occasional MVFR conditions may be
possible within any showers. After 00Z, showers will become more
focused to favored upslope areas and mountain terminals,
bringing more widespread MVFR conditions overnight. Winds will
generally be westerly throughout the forecast period, with gusts
of 25 to 30 knots possible.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance RA.
Friday Night: MVFR. Definite RA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA, Chance
SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer/Storm
SHORT TERM...Duell
LONG TERM...Duell
AVIATION...Kremer