Colchester, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

891
FXUS61 KBTV 030456
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
Issued by National Weather Service Albany NY
1256 AM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail across our region through Wednesday
as surface ridge edges into the north country from the south.
This will bring warm and dry weather through mid week. A series
of frontal passages will bring showers to the region in the
Thursday through Saturday timeframe.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1249 AM EDT Tuesday...Clear skies and light winds have
allowed temps to cool quickly early this morning. Have updated
to lower temps and add some patchy frost into the grids for SLK
and parts of the NEK. SLK already at 36F as of 1225AM. Also,
weak area of showers earlier in the evening has helped in the
development of patchy fog acrs the lower White River and CT
River Valleys this morning, so have added patchy fog into the
grids. Rest of fcst in good shape.

Previous discussion below:
As surface high pressure ridges into our area from the south, a
good radiational cooling night will set up for tonight.
Clearing skies and light winds will lead to temperatures
dropping into the mid 30s to mid 40s, coldest in the Dacks and
Northeast kingdom of Vermont. There may be just enough boundary
layer wind to prevent the surface from completely decoupling.
Pockets of very isolated frost are possible in the coldest
hollows of the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. Temperatures
will warm quickly on Tuesday as flow becomes more southerly, and
temps should rise into the 70s to around 80. Westerly flow will
likely again cause some additional warming along the eastern
Adirondacks from downsloping, so some of the lower elevations
there could approach the mid 80s. Upper level ridge will build
into the region on Tuesday, therefore Tuesday night not looking
as cold as tonight. Minimum temperatures will be in the 50s to
around 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 347 PM EDT Monday...Wednesday is looking to be quite warm
with high temperatures reaching the mid 80s to around 90 as
surface and upper level ridges will both be in place over the
area, as well as southerly flow with surface ridge beginning to
slowly slide eastward. HRRR continues to show some smoke in the
upper levels on Wed and possible Tue, and this could limit how
warm it gets. Wednesday night should mostly remain dry, but we
will have an increase in clouds from the west towards early
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 347 PM EDT Monday...Weather pattern becomes more active
from Thursday onward with progressive upper level flow in place.
A cold front will approach and cross our region on Thursday,
warm humid air will be in place ahead of the frontal passage,
and showers with possible thunderstorms are expected for Thu.
After the front crosses the area, it will stall out to our
south, and a series of shortwaves will track along the front
bringing additional chances for showers. Because some of the
shower activity will be driven by shortwave passages, tricky to
nail down the timing this far out. At this time, Sunday and
Monday look drier with upper level ridging over our area once
again.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06z Wednesday...Sfc high pressure will result in VFR
conditions for the next 12 to 24 hours at our taf sites. The
only exception maybe a couple 10 to 20 minute intervals of some
patchy/shallow ground fog at SLK, as the temp/dwpt spread is
very small. The probability is 25 to 30% given crnt conditions,
so have placed tempo group for MVFR conditions for several hours
around sunrise. Otherwise, light and trrn driven winds become
south/southwest at 5 to 10 knots after sunrise on Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles/Taber
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Taber