Barre, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

958
FXUS61 KBTV 202000
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
400 PM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Winds are beginning to taper off as cool high pressure builds
in. A round of scattered thunderstorms is expected Sunday
morning on the leading edge of a hot and humid air mass.
Potentially dangerous heat will develop, especially for Monday
and Tuesday, then temperatures will trend towards normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM EDT Friday...Very quiet and pleasant weather
continues to be the expectation through tomorrow. Seasonable
temperatures tonight dipping into the upper 40s to mid 50s will
be refreshing, and humidity will be low as temperatures climb
into the low to mid 80s during the day Saturday. Get out and
enjoy these conditions if you can, as chances for heavy
thunderstorms remain on track for late Saturday night followed
by hot and humid conditions for Sunday through Tuesday.

Focus of this period remains the details on potential severe
thunderstorms overnight Saturday. They will be associated with
a mesoscale convective system that will be traveling quickly
eastward along a strong thermal gradient, fueled by strong warm
advection as an anomalously hot air mass overruns relatively
cool air. By the time this system reaches southern Ontario, the
frontal boundary should weaken although a surface trough will
likely cross our region, triggering showers and thunderstorms.
The bulk of these storms, especially in Vermont, will likely be
sub-severe with lack of instability available out ahead of this
system. Primary threats with tall skinny CAPE profiles would be frequent
lightning and torrential rainfall rates. In northern New York,
especially western areas, a greater risk of damaging winds
exists, associated with the core of a fast moving, more robust
line of thunderstorms turning southward/anti-cyclonically. This
area has a lower chance of showers and thunderstorms than areas
to the east, and yet a higher risk of severe weather; stay
tuned as the evolution (timing, track, and severity) of this
system becomes more clear.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 328 PM EDT Friday...The forecast for Sunday will largely depend
on the evolution of the the MCS mentioned in the previous
discussion. Guidance continues to vary with how quickly this feature
moves out of the region, which some showing showers exiting early
Sunday morning and other keeping precipitation a bit longer into the
day. SPC currently has the area in a Marginal Risk for severe
weather on Sunday, mostly due the uncertainty of the MCS as it
pushes across. Conditions will gradually clear behind this system,
with hot and humid weather expected by the afternoon. High
temperatures are currently forecast to climb into the 80s, with some
locations reaching near 90 in the broader valleys. Conditions will
continue to stay warm and humid overnight, with low temperatures
only dropping into the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 328 PM EDT Friday...A period of dangerous heat continues to
look likely for the first portion of next week as high pressure
builds into the region. No large changes have been made from the
previous forecast, with high temperatures expected to climb into 90s
areawide, feeling even warming with heat indices in the upper 90s to
low 100s. Record high maximum and minimum temperatures for several
climate sites are likely to be broken, with more details in the
Climate section below. Both Monday and Tuesday have HeatRisk values
in the major category across the region, which means the heat will
be unusual enough to affect anyone without effective cooling and/or
adequate hydration. This is the hottest weather of the year so far,
so be sure to take necessary steps to prepare for the heat. Be sure
to stay hydrated and check on those more vulnerable to heat impacts.
A cold front will pass through Tuesday evening, bringing and end to
the extreme heat with increasing cloud cover and some precipitation.
Temperatures look to trend more seasonable towards the end of the
week, with occasional showers and thunderstorms possible.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...Aside from EFK where lingering low
overcast is producing MVFR ceilings, VFR conditions are present
across the airspace with winds generally out of the west-
northwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts 15 to 25 knots. Stronger
winds in eastern Vermont sites will be the last to subside as
high pressure continues to builds in; all sites will trend calm
after 00Z and remain light through the remainder of the period.

Patchy fog will likely develop tonight in some river valleys;
climatology suggests MPV and SLK may have a period of radiation
FG/BR in the 08Z to 12Z period, with slightly higher
probabilities at MPV. At this time, confidence in fog affecting
these sites is moderately low given drying low level conditions
today and some winds aloft lingering into the overnight hours.


Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high maximum and minimum temperatures are likely during an
upcoming hot spell. Below are the current daily records that could
be broken:

Max Temp Records
Date     KBTV     KMPV     KMSS     KPBG     KSLK
06-23  96|2020   90|1975  92|2020  95|1983  89|1964
06-24  96|2003   89|2003  91|1957  93|1975  90|2003

High Min Temp Records
DateKBTV      KMPV     KMSS     KPBG     KSLK
06-22  71|1976   67|1953  66|1976  68|1976  63|1976
06-23  75|1894   65|1985  71|1975  70|1975  64|1921

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Kutikoff
CLIMATE...Team BTV