West Jordan, Utah 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

269
FXUS65 KSLC 152153
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
353 PM MDT Tue Apr 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Another warm day, with high-based convection is
expected Wednesday across the region. A strong cold front will
cross into northern Utah Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Unsettled and unseasonably cool conditions, with the potential for
heavy snow across the southern mountains will continue into the
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Thursday)...Looks more late spring/early
summer across the CWA, with high-based convection across portions
of central and southern Utah this afternoon. Currently, a cut-off
low is off the southern California Coast, while a more
continental trough is dropping south across the Prairie
Provinces. This trough will continue to shift south into the
northern Intermountain Region through early Thursday morning.
Meanwhile, the upper level low off the coast will slowly shift
eastward toward southern California.

Expect any remaining high based convection to gradually diminish
near sunset this evening. Another round of relatively high-based
convection is expected across much of the state Wednesday
afternoon...with the attendant threat of gusty, microburst winds.

As the strong continental upper level low continues to drop south
into southern Idaho, the initial cold front will cross into
northern Utah late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. More
about this front and the potential ramifications in the long term
forecast discussion.

For the short term...temperatures will warm a few degrees over
Tuesday`s high for Wednesday. Cloud cover will hamper any further
warming.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Thursday)...An active period of weather
ramps up Thursday as we enter a prolonged period of western U.S.
troughing. A southern stream closed low will be pushing inland
over Southern California to start the period while another trough
will be diving south west of the Rockies due to a lobe of
vorticity breaking off of the northern stream, perhaps spinning up
into a closed low. By Friday, the two aforementioned closed lows
will phase together near the Four Corners Region as part of the
southern stream and begin to eject east within the mean flow.

A frontal boundary will be pushing through northwest Utah to
start the period on Thursday morning, continuing southeast
throughout the day. This will serve to bring relatively widespread
precipitation amounts throughout all of Utah and southwest
Wyoming. With the bulk of the precipitation across northern Utah
remaining associated with the frontal boundary, snow levels will
remain elevated at generally 5500-6500 keeping the majority of
valleys socked in with rain and snow up in the mountains. Snowfall
amounts across the Wasatch range, Uintas, and central Utah
mountains appear to reach advisory levels, though held off on the
issuance of an advisory at this time due to some concerns with
overall moisture quality across the northern side of Utah.

Additionally, around 30-40% of model guidance indicates a brief
switch to east-northeasterly winds across the Wasatch Front this
Friday. This wind direction is generally favorable for downsloping
winds with the directional change occurring late Friday morning
into the evening hours. There is still some uncertainty
surrounding this, though the signal is there and worth watching.

With the two closed lows phasing together, ample forcing for
ascent will exist across southern Utah from Thursday through
Saturday atop ample moisture. As such, there exists some concern
for some notable rainfall across the lower elevations and snowfall
across the higher elevations. Regarding rainfall, the Extreme
Forecast Index (EFI) has trended to become more bullish across
southern Utah, particularly across southwest Utah where the Shift
of Tails (SOT) contours now reach 2, indicating that some higher-
end solutions exist within the ECMWF model suite. Forecast PWAT`s
generally range from 0.5-0.7" across southern Utah which is
approaching the climatological maximum for this time of year. The
GFS is the drier solution, though it still supports values
approaching the aforementioned range. This results in some concern
for some localized nuisance flooding Thursday and Friday when the
bulk of the moisture is expected to arrive. Currently, the
Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has portions of southern Utah
outlined in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall
this Thursday.

Regarding snowfall, water amounts across higher elevations appear
to reach 1-1.5", with some areas seeing locally greater amounts.
This would translate to a good portion of our southern Utah
mountains seeing around 6-12" of snow at areas such as Brian Head.
However, the chances for amounts around 18-20" also appears
possible for areas such as the Boulder Mountain area and Tushar
Range where moisture appears more favorable at this time. As such,
a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for our southern Utah
mountains.

Following the phasing, the upper trough will continue ejecting east
throughout the weekend with transient ridging building in its wake.
Zonal flow appears to build in with multiple embedded shortwave
troughs clipping by northern Utah Sunday evening into Monday
bringing more unsettled weather to kick off the workweek.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Northwesterly winds will continue until a
transition to light and southeasterly around 02-03z. Northwest
winds will return around 18-19z, with high-based showers
developing in the area after 19-21z. These showers may be capable
of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds. VFR conditions will
prevail.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...High-based showers will
continue through roughly 01-03z across mainly southern Utah; any
showers will be capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow
winds, with winds up with 25-35kts already observed. Winds will be
terrain-driven overnight, increasing out of the southwest
Wednesday afternoon. Isolated-scattered showers are likely to
develop Wednesday afternoon across northern Utah and southwest
Wyoming.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday morning through Friday evening
     for UTZ125.

WY...None.
&&

$$

Kruse/Worster/Cunningham

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity