Saratoga Springs, Utah 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

093
FXUS65 KSLC 141040
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
340 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure building over the weekend will result in dry
  conditions and increasing temperatures.

- By Sunday, southwesterly winds will begin to increase ahead of a
  series of storm systems that will bring plentiful mountain
  snowfall and even minor valley snow accumulations between Monday
  evening and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Largely quiescent conditions are in place early
this morning as high pressure continues to build across Utah and
southwest Wyoming. Low stratus appears to be hanging around over
and adjacent to the higher terrain of northern/central Utah,
though reduced visibilities can only be found at a couple of
observation sites.

As heights build this weekend, temperatures will rebound to 5-15
degrees above normal by Monday, particularly as breezy southwesterly
winds develop on Sunday and Monday afternoons. High clouds are
already beginning to stream into northwestern Utah well ahead of
the next storm system.

Speaking of...southwesterly flow will steadily increase over the
forecast area as a potent trough continues to strengthen just off
of the west coast. While current guidance suggest winds peak on
Monday afternoon, 700-mb flow will remain quite strong really
through Thursday, with the highest winds along ridgelines and
across western Millard and Iron counties.

Looking at the large scale, this storm system will bring two
strong shortwave troughs through the area; the first of which will
swing through on Monday night into Tuesday morning, followed by
the second late Wednesday into Thursday. Each will bring a
temporary surge of moisture as well as colder temperatures. The
system as a whole looks very impressive dynamically, with a couple
of dynamic tropopause intrusions and a 170kt jet to our south.
Moisture is a little less impressive, but still could reach
150-200% of normal during peak times.

With long-duration strong southwesterly flow persisting until the
second wave swings through, expect plentiful orographic
enhancement in favored areas such as Brian Head and Provo Canyon,
which could end up on the high-end of forecast amounts, pending
finer scale details. With the second wave, winds will transition
to westerly or northwesterly, favoring other areas such as the
Cottonwoods, Bear River Range, or even higher valleys along I-15.
Uncertainties in this flow direction as well as when/if there is a
break in mountain snow between waves has resulted in a large
spread in QPF/snowfall at this time, particularly for Wednesday
and Thursday. Will also need to monitor the lake-effect potential
given 700-mb temperatures dropping to around -12C to -15C by
Thursday. In summary, mountain snow amounts are likely to be
measured by feet, rather than inches...despite wide spread in
forecast amounts.

As far as valley snow...given better dynamics across southern
Utah, southern valleys (except St. George) may see higher snow
amounts than northern valleys. For example, there is currently a
60% chance of greater than 4 inches of snow in Cedar City, while
that chance is only 10% in Salt Lake City (higher on benches).
Most valleys are likely to transition to snow by Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...There is a very low (less than 10%) chance of
decreased VIS below 4SM near sunrise Saturday. Otherwise, VIS/CIGS
to remain VFR with an increase in high level clouds by Saturday
evening. Winds expected to remain light (generally less than 10 kts)
at least into Saturday evening, with magnitudes likely increasing
slightly Sunday morning. Any wind shift is likely to be delayed
until after 21Z Saturday, and guidance is 50/50 on potential for any
diurnal northwest directional shift at all.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...There is a low (10% or less)
chance of decreased VIS below 4SM at northern valley terminals, with
highest potential noted at LGU/EVW. Any such decreases will clear up
after sunrise, with VFR conditions expected to hold thereafter. High
level clouds will increase areawide Saturday evening onward. Winds
Saturday will favor a diurnally normal directional pattern with
magnitudes generally light (less than 10 kts). Winds will
increasingly favor a south to southwesterly component and increase
after sunrise Sunday ahead of the next system.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Cunningham/Warthen

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity