Saratoga Springs, Utah 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

124
FXUS65 KSLC 141908
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
108 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.UPDATE...Afternoon convection continues to develop across
southern Utah early this afternoon. Thunderstorm motions have been
relatively slow, allowing for some gauges to report rates around
0.10" in 10 minutes, especially near the France Canyon Burn Scar.
CAMS indicate convection will continue to develop across the
southern third of the state through the afternoon, diminishing
between 03-06Z. Gusty microburst winds are most likely along the
northern periphery of the convection, with a 5% chance of wind
gusts in excess of 55 mph.

Otherwise, hot, dry and windy conditions will develop across the
region Monday into Tuesday. Fire Weather Watches have been issued
for the central and southern mountains as well as the eastern
valleys Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...


- Thunderstorms will bring the threat of gusty, microburst winds
  in excess of 40 mph and localized flash flooding to southern
  Utah through this evening.

- Locally elevated fire weather conditions will impact the eastern
  valleys Monday, with critical fire weather conditions impacting
  the eastern valleys and central and southern mountains Tuesday
  and Wednesday. There is a moderate probability conditions will
  continue through at least Friday for much of Utah where fuels
  are critical or near-critical.

- There is a greater than 50 percent chance HeatRisk will reject
  the major category across the lower deserts of southern Utah
  including Zion National Park and St George Tuesday and
  Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION, Issued 1015 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026...
 Currently, a midlevel shortwave trough is progressing
southeast across the MT/ID border with another weaker shortwave
stalled over the CA coastline providing persistent SW`erly flow
across southern UT. With time, these two waves will phase together
into tomorrow afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will persist in
some capacity across southern UT into central UT keeping the airmass
moist and reinforcing a thermal boundary further north. This moist
and unstable airmass will favor thunderstorm development across
central and southern UT tomorrow afternoon as midlevel ascent
increases with the troughs phasing together as they move southeast.
With CAPE on the order of 500-750J/kg amidst steep 0-3km LR`s and
DCAPE in excess of 1200J/kg, strong to severe gusts and potentially
small hail cannot be ruled out with any storm that forms.
Additionally, PWATs ranging from 0.6-0.9" may yield a localized
flash flood threat for any slow-moving or terrain enhanced storms.
High LCL`s on the order of 2500m+ yield some uncertainty with how
much precip will make it to the ground, though storm coverage may
compensate and moisten the PBL potentially resulting in training
storms yielding a heightened flash flooding threat.

Overnight into Monday morning, a dry front will traverse the state
as midlevel ridging begins to nudge into the area. Some residual
moisture may result in some terrain driven thunderstorms across
central and southern UT Monday afternoon, though these will be quite
transient and isolated at best.

Throughout the remainder of the period, an upper jet will progress
south from Canada into the central plains, establishing a persistent
troughing pattern across the central and eastern U.S.. This will
keep much of the west underneath a building ridge, amplifying across
each passing day. Hot and dry conditions are forecast to develop
once again through the long term, potentially persisting into
Saturday and beyond. HeatRisk will see an increase as this occurs,
with the highest confidence of heat related issues developing
Tuesday and Wednesday as HeatRisk enters the moderate range across
most valleys.

Additionally, as ridging builds in and tightens the pressure
gradient Tuesday and Wednesday, midlevel northwesterly winds are
forecast to see an enhancement. Given preceding dry conditions,
these winds will mix to the surface with enhanced dry northwest
winds overspreading much of UT Tuesday through Wednesday. As such,
critical fire weather conditions are expected to return to the state
Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons due to gusty surface winds.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions under clear skies will prevail
over the KSLC terminal through the valid TAF period. Light
northerly winds will persist through the day, returning to a
southerly drainage flow later this evening.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions and clear
skies prevail across the northern area through the valid TAF
period while central and southern Utah remain under cloud cover
with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Breezy west to northwest
winds are expected in northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming, with
the remainder of the area largely influenced by diurnally driven
flows. Showers and thunderstorms will bring potential for gusty
and erratic outflow winds in excess of 40kts, as well as temporary
reductions to VIS in locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Convection across southern Utah has trended wetter,
with areas under slow moving thunderstorms increasingly likely to
see wetting rains. A drier pattern will build into the region
Monday, with locally elevated to locally critical fire weather
conditions across the eastern valleys Monday afternoon and
evening. Winds will increase further Tuesday, with critical fire
weather conditions expected across the eastern valleys as well as
the central and southern mountains. Winds will increase a bit more
on Wednesday...which may spread critical fire weather conditions
into the Grand Staircase. While winds will decrease Thursday a
bit, eastern valleys, and the central and southern mountains will
likely remain in critical fire weather conditions through Friday.
Overnight recoveries in these areas will become quite poor Tuesday
night through at least Thursday night.

As a system approaches the Pacific Coast Thursday into Friday,
winds will also increase across the western valleys, bringing a
threat of critical fire weather conditions to these locations as
well.

Bottom line, the threat of wetting rains will end
today...followed by an extended hot, dry, and gusty period for
most of the next week.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for UTZ482-488-489-493-496.

WY...None.

&&

$$

Kruse/Webber/Worster

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity