Provo, Utah 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

413
FXUS65 KSLC 250437 CCA
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1037 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will stay mild for Memorial Day, with scattered
  afternoon showers with a few thunderstorms developing over the
  higher terrain. Any storms that develop will be capable of
  producing gusty and erratic winds.

- Increasing winds will bring the potential of critical fire
  weather conditions to southwest Utah beginning Tuesday, with a
  medium chance of some gusts in excess of 40 mph over western
  Utah. Gusty winds will be more widespread across the state on
  Wednesday, with a higher potential for strong gusts. The
  potential for critical fire weather conditions will linger
  through at least Thursday over eastern Utah.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The ridge axis that has been over Utah and southwest
Wyoming is shifting eastward into Colorado this evening. Shortwave
energy moving over the top of the ridge into northern Utah brought
some scattered convection this afternoon that has mostly
diminished at this time. Temperatures were near seasonal normals
over southern Utah, with maxes running up to 10F above climo for
northern Utah.

A trough will be moving onshore along the Pacific Northwest coast
on Memorial Day as southerly flow develops over Utah and southwest
Wyoming. This flow will start to draw moisture and instability in
the form of some weak shortwaves into the area during the day.
Thus, another round of afternoon convection is expected, mainly
over the higher terrain, with coverage most widespread over
southern Utah. Lower levels are still on the dry side so the main
threat will remain gusty and erratic thunderstorms winds.

There is high confidence that the Pacific Northwest trough will
drop south into the Great Basin on Tuesday. The stouter pressure
gradient will bring increasing winds to western Utah, likely to
produce critical fire weather conditions were fuels are dry over
southwest Utah. For there and the remainder of western Utah, most
likely wind speeds have gone up a bit in this evening`s guidance,
with an approximately 50-50 chance of gusts in excess of 40 mph,
mainly across areas closer to the Utah/Nevada border.

As the low continues edging eastward for the middle of the week,
the areal extent of gusty winds is expected to increase for
Wednesday. Thus, the potential for critical fire weather
conditions will become more widespread, though increasing relative
humidities may be a bit of a limiting factor. Will also need to
continue to watch for the potential of wind gusts in excess of 40
mph, with latest guidance still showing about a 50-50 chance of
more widespread gusts in excess of 40 mph.

Beyond the midweek period, model spread increases with regard to
the evolution of the Pacific Northwest low, which is to be
expected as guidance typically struggles with weakening closed
lows, as this one is expected to be at that point. The most likely
scenario is for the low to track northeast over the area as it
opens up. Overall, moisture and instability look unimpressive at
this point, but the position of the upper jet over eastern Utah
may result in that area becoming a focus for convection late in
the work week. Drier conditions are expected to move in for the
upcoming weekend with high pressure moving in, with some guidance
indicating that this may be somewhat short lived.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Southeasterly winds will persist overnight,
likely transitioning to northwesterly between 19-21z. Developing
afternoon showers and thunderstorms nearby could cause periods of
gusty and erratic outflow winds in excess of 25kts between roughly
19-02z.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Winds will be largely
diurnally-driven overnight, with scattered showers and thunderstorms
redeveloping after 18z Monday. Any storms may be capable of
producing gusty and erratic outflow winds. VFR conditions will
prevail.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Moisture and instability will remain in place over
Utah for Memorial Day, bringing scattered showers with a few
thunderstorms during the afternoon, primarily over the higher
terrain and with the best coverage over southern Utah. The chance
of wetting rain is limited at best with gusty and erratic winds
likely with any storms that develop. The potential for critical
fire weather conditions will increase over southwest Utah on
Tuesday as a Pacific Northwest trough drops into the Great Basin,
bringing an increase in winds. The gusty winds will become more
widespread across the area on Wednesday, though relative
humidities will be increasing during this time. As the trough
crosses the area Thursday into Friday, the potential for critical
fire weather conditions will continue over eastern Utah.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan
AVIATION...Cunningham

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity