Orem, Utah 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

995
FXUS65 KSLC 012138
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
338 PM MDT Sun Jun 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...An active pattern will continue through the week.
There is a heightened threat of flash flooding across portions of
southern Utah Monday and again Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Feels more like July across the Beehive State than
the first day of June. Temperatures have surged into the mid-90s
across portions of the Wasatch Front. As of about 310 PM, KSLC has
hit 94F, typing the record for the date. Widespread convection has
developed across portions of western and southern Utah.

Early afternoon upper air and satellite analysis indicates a cut-
off upper level low with a semi-tropical moisture tap crossing
into northern Baja California. An upper level trough is crossing
the PACNW, with yet another upper level low slowly cutting off on
the south side of the trough near northern California.

The first upper level low will gradually shift across the Desert
Southwest over the next 24 hours or so before weakening and
lifting northeast into the central Rockies. As mentioned earlier,
convection is developing in advance of this low across much of
western and southern Utah. Given 50-60 degree dewpoint
depressions across western Utah, the most significant threat with
the convection today will be gusty and erratic microburst winds.
Several CAMS suggest wind gusts up to about 55 mph will shift
through portions of the Wasatch Front as part of a mature cluster
of convection between 5 and 8 PM.

As moisture advection continues in earnest across southern Utah
overnight, the threat will shift toward more of a flash flood
concern for Monday afternoon and evening. The initial band of
precipitation will shift into southern Utah Monday morning. While
earlier runs over the last few days suggested this band of
precipitation would shift well into Utah and perhaps disrupt any
later convective potential, the bulk of the CAMS/high resolution
models have shifted away from this solution. HREF SBCAPE values
increase to near 500-1000 J/kg across portions of eastern and
southern Utah by Monday afternoon. With deep layer shear around
10-15kts, the main focus of any convection in the deformation axis
of the upper level low will be heavy rain.

NAEFS PW anomalies reach the max for 12Z in the relative
climatology by Monday morning. This combined with storm motion
less than 10-15 kts and down drainage trajectories will support a
conditional threat of flash flooding...as long as the instability
is sufficient for convection (this is increasingly likely). CAMs
suggest convection will develop across the southern mountains and
then shift down the instability axis across the lower terrain of
Utah later afternoon into the evening Monday. HREF 1 hour rainfall
rates exceed 1"/hour in several of the members, with the heaviest
focus between Zion National Park and western portions of the
Grand Staircase (including Buckskin Gulch/Paria Canyon). Given
this, upgraded the flash flood potential to probable for Snow
Canyon, Zion National Park, and portions of the Grand Staircase.
While confidence is not high enough for a flood watch, those with
outdoor plans in slot canyons, normally dry washes, slickrock
areas, etc across southern Utah should consider a plan B for
Monday.

As the next upper level low approaches the region, Tuesday looks
to be a break in widespread convection across southern Utah, with
coverage expected to be more isolated to scattered. Noteably,
while the main moisture tap will be interrupted, PWs will still
remain above the 90th percentile along the Utah/Arizona border.
Any thunderstorms will be capable of heavy rain.

The next cut-off upper level low will cross the Desert Southwest
through the day Wednesday. With PW anomalies creeping back up
into the 97-99th percentile across southern Utah, continued slow
storm motion and sufficient instability, Wednesday afternoon and
evening look to be another period of heightened flash flood
threat. The Weather Prediction Center has added portions of
southern Utah to a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Wednesday
(in addition to the area for Monday). This is another to consider
a backup plan to outdoor plans that include slot canyons, etc.

While temperatures will cool considerably in this active pattern
after today, a reminder to be heat safe. Carry sufficient water
(0.5L to 1L per hour per person) and follow heat guidelines. Heat
can be deadly. There have been over a dozen rescues in the last
few days due to inadequately hydrated or prepared hikers. Be safe
out there!

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Light northwest winds will prevail through at
least 00Z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will track in after
00Z and influence winds. Although there will be little or no
precipitation, gusty, erratic outflow winds could gust to around
40 knots. Showers and thunderstorms along with gusty, erratic
outflow winds will diminish around 06Z. Light southeast winds will
prevail into early Monday, but northwest winds will build in by
12Z. Clouds will decrease through the day.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms for much of southern and western Utah will be
capable of gusty, erratic outflow winds through the evening. These
will track into the urban corridor of northern Utah after 00Z,
also capable of gusty, erratic outflow winds. Showers and
thunderstorms will taper off for much of Utah around 06Z, although
showers will continue for southern Utah into Monday. Showers and
thunderstorms for southern Utah will bring localized heavy rain
and gusty, erratic outflow winds after 20Z Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...An active pattern will continue to evolve across
the region. High-based showers and thunderstorms will bring the
threat of microbursts across mainly western and northern Utah this
afternoon and evening. As an upper level low shifts across the
Desert Southwest through Monday, deep moisture will build into
southern Utah. Depending on the degree of cloud cover...there is a
conditional threat of thunderstorms with very heavy rain,
particularly south and east of a line from Parowan to Loa.

Tuesday has trended toward less convective coverage. The next
upper level low will cross the Desert Southwest Wednesday into
Thursday, bringing another round of thunderstorms to southern utah
with the threat of heavy rain. The active pattern will continue
through the remainder of the week.

Expect deep mixing (largely 80th+ percentile across the state) to
shift toward more typical mixing around the 50th percentile for
Monday. Mixing will largely remain in the 50-70th percentile until
Saturday, when deeper mixing is once again forecast.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Kruse/Wilson

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