Layton, Utah 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

245
FXUS65 KSLC 112132
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
332 PM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A mostly dry but strong cold front will cross the area
Saturday into Saturday night, knocking temperatures to more seasonal
levels. After the return of high pressure, another weak system then
shows potential to lift through Utah towards the middle of next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Saturday)...A very mild and dry day
ongoing across the forecast region as a strong ridge remains the
dominant influence. GOES-W WV imagery shows the axis of this ridge
starting to slip slightly eastward, with increasingly southwesterly
flow overhead in turn. The 12Z KSLC upper air analysis sampled H7
temperatures of 8.35C, which per SPC sounding climatology would be
the daily record. Forecast H7 temperatures this afternoon sit
generally in the 9C to 12C range, so efficient mixing will help
further drive anomalous warming with many afternoon record high
marks likely to be set at many locations. That said, seeing a denser
patch of mid/upper level cloud cover filtering through, which along
with any local influences (such as the lake breeze near the Great
Salt Lake) could halt warming. Still, in any case, temperatures are
running around 15F to 25F above climatological normal, so plenty
warm out there regardless.

The stout ridge will continue its eastward progression overnight
into Saturday, with a trough and associated cold frontal boundary
approaching the area from the northwest by morning. Given the speed
of the boundary, temperatures overnight will once again be quite
mild. The frontal boundary will then gradually sweep from northwest
to southeast Saturday onward into Saturday night. Temperatures ahead
of the front across the southern half of the forecast region will
remain quite mild, whereas the northern half will see more temperate
conditions in the post-frontal environment. Additionally, H7 flow of
30-40 kts will continue to mix some strong gusts down ahead of the
frontal boundary in the southern portion of Utah. Despite the
expectation of moderately gusty conditions, guidance maintains a
less than 10% chance of advisory/headline criteria winds. Some gusty
post-frontal winds are also expected elsewhere across the northern
portion of the region, though to more modest levels than that of the
south. Despite the front being fairly strong, guidance continues to
maintain that it`ll be relatively starved of moisture. Still, high
resolution models do pick up on potential to pull a few isolated to
scattered showers out as the stronger forcing remains overhead, but
overall not anticipating any sort of impactful precipitation.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Sunday)...A weak cold front will be moving
through northern and central Utah on Sunday. A few showers are
possible along the front, but these will primarily be confined to
the terrain as synoptic forcing will be rather weak. This front will
struggle to get completely through southern Utah. As a result,
temperatures will remain about 10 degrees above normal towards the
Arizona border. Elsewhere, temperatures will be near normal.

High pressure will quickly build back into the area with
temperatures climbing back above normal 10-15 degrees for the
remainder of the week. A cutoff low will meander off the California
coast. This low looks to track inland, only to be replaced by a
secondary cutoff low. The exact track of this inland moving low
pressure remains a bit uncertain, but it does introduce some low end
PoPs into southern and central Utah by the middle of next week. Mid
and upper level moisture will get advected into the area to help
spur some convection, particularly across the terrain and adjacent
valleys. Drier low levels will bring a threat for some microburst
winds for any storms that do develop.

Some of the deterministic guidance, such as the CAN and EC are
starting to suggest a more potent cold front by the end of the week
that could bring more widespread precipitation to northern Utah.
However, this is only reflected in about 15% of the ensemble
members. The remaining members keep this trough to our east, but it
has been a trend that has recently emerged amongst the guidance, so
it`s worth keeping on eye on to see if more members shift to this
solution.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Light northwest winds will transition to
southeast around 03Z with scattered to broken high clouds through
the TAF period. Light southeast winds will last through around 15Z,
when winds transition to northwest as a dry cold front pushes
through. Northwest winds will gust around 20 knots much of the day.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Gusty southwest winds
throughout southwest Wyoming and southwest Utah will diminish
between 00-03Z. Scattered to broken high clouds are likely through
the TAF period. A dry cold front will bring northwest wind gusts
around 20-30 knots throughout southwest Wyoming and portions of
northern Utah from around 15Z through much of the day. Southwest
wind gusts of 20-30 knots are likely throughout southern Utah from
around 17-03Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Warthen
LONG TERM...Mahan
AVIATION...Wilson

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity