San Antonio, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

625
FXUS64 KEWX 300632
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
132 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 131 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025

Key Messages:

- A complex of thunderstorms for the overnight into early this morning
  with potential of isolated to scattered severe storms

- Pockets of heavy rainfall could lead to instances of isolated to
  scattered flash flooding

- North-northeasterly flow with slightly cooler, drier air behind the
  storm complex and frontal boundary from Friday night into Saturday

An organized complex of thunderstorms from earlier convection over
West and Central Texas is on its final southeastward approach on
entering our CWA along a frontal boundary. At the time of this
writing, most of the activity has remained below severe limits but
continues to produce moderate to heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and
small hail. Some short term guidance shows the possibility of some
re-intensification of storms overnight across our region, mainly
across our western areas, where the local instability is a tad bit
higher. Isolated to scattered severe storms remain possible as a
result with the threat of damaging winds and large hail. Rainfall
rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour in the storms could also result in
some instances of flash flooding, especially across any locations
that have seen greater rainfall throughout the last few days. The
complex should clear the I-35 corridor by the mid-morning before
weakening and/or clearing the coastal plains through the early
afternoon.

North-northeasterly winds arrive in wake of this storm complex and
the front. This will funnel in some slightly drier and cooler air
across the region. The front is likely to get hung up to the south
across portions of Corpus Christi`s CWA and to the west along the
Mexico higher terrain. This is where the highest PWATs will pool
through the remainder of the short term period. Enough moisture is
expected to remain with enough diurnal heating for low to medium
rain/storm chances across our southern and western most areas from
Friday night through Saturday, with the best chances peaking late
Friday night into early Saturday across the Rio Grande Plains.
Elsewhere, conditions look to stay primarily dry and stable.

Behind the complex, expect for high temperatures to only peak into
the low to mid 80s across the northern half of the region during
this afternoon while southern reaches of the region still could
reach up into the 90s. Overnight lows into Saturday morning range
from the mid 60s across the Hill Country to the low to mid 70s
elsewhere. Saturday is expected to feature afternoon highs mainly
in the 80s to near 90 degrees across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 131 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025

Key Message:

- Low chances for isolated showers and storms into early next week.

The leftover mid-level moisture associated with TS Alvin in the
eastern Pacific is forecast to thin out Saturday night, resulting in
lessening rain chances moving into Sunday in concert with an
approaching upper-level ridge. Southerly return flow is forecast to
develop beneath this ridge, so dew points look to trend upwards
heading into next week. While the ridge should keep most of our
region free of rain Sunday, a late afternoon shortwave diving south
along the ridge`s eastern periphery over East Texas could spark some
isolated shower and storm activity mainly over the eastern half of
our CWA Sunday afternoon and evening, with possible contributions to
lift from the onshore flow of Gulf air and divergence ahead of the
trough. Given the broader ridging, coverage should be low, so for
now rain chances of 15 to 20 percent are portrayed mainly for the I-
35 corridor eastward late Sunday.

More of the ridge shifts over our area Monday, which should keep
most of early part of the day quiet. A trough is forecast to impinge
on the ridge`s western flanks later in the day, with medium range
guidance indicating a corresponding increase of convective activity
along the dry line over West Texas and atop high terrain over
Mexico. Warm air aloft associated with the ridge will favor more
stable conditions over our area, but a few storms could sustain into
the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains later in the day
into the evening before weakening overnight. With several
disturbances embedded within the broader troughing over the Rockies,
a similar pattern could play out again Tuesday, perhaps shifted
slightly northeast depending on the timing of the individual
disturbances. With the shortwaves ejecting out over the Four Corners
region into the Central Plains, the focus of lift looks to be mainly
north of our area, so rain chances both days currently reach 25
percent at most. Upper-level ridging strengthens midweek, causing
the subtropical jet the bow outwards north of our area. This will
tend to put storm tracks mainly north of our area, but not much
would need to change for rain chances to continue mainly for the
northern half of the CWA.

Southerly flow under ridging aloft means temperatures will be on the
upswing heading into next week. Sunday afternoon marks a return to
the 90s for South Central Texas, and continued southerly flow should
get most locations into the upper 90s by midweek with low 100s along
the Rio Grande. Lows are forecast to be in the 70s throughout next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025

VFR flight conditions begin the period but a storm complex across
Central and West Texas will advance southeastward with potential
impacts overnight through early morning at the area terminals.
This thunderstorm activity could impact the terminals between 09Z
and 15Z. Some showers could precede or linger behind the complex
for a couple of hours. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, heavy
rainfall, and small hail could be associated with activity. Winds
turn northerly behind the front and bring MVFR ceilings through
mid to late morning at KAUS and KSAT. Ceilings lift into and
through the afternoon to VFR levels. Winds decrease in speed and
become variable into Friday night.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              86  69  89  69 /  30  10  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  86  68  88  68 /  30  10  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     88  69  89  70 /  40  10  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            82  66  87  69 /  30  10  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           88  73  91  74 /  50  30  20  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        82  66  88  68 /  30  10  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             89  71  89  70 /  40  20  20  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        87  68  89  68 /  40  10  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   87  70  88  69 /  40  10  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       88  71  89  72 /  40  10  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           90  72  90  73 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              86  69  89  69 /  30  10  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  86  68  88  68 /  30  10  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     88  69  89  70 /  40  10  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            82  66  87  69 /  30  10  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           88  73  91  74 /  50  30  20  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        82  66  88  68 /  30  10  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             89  71  89  70 /  40  20  20  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        87  68  89  68 /  40  10  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   87  70  88  69 /  40  10  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       88  71  89  72 /  40  10  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           90  72  90  73 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...Tran
Aviation...Brady