San Antonio, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

531
FXUS64 KEWX 070626
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1226 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled weather pattern today through the middle of next week with
  daily shower and storm chances. Strong to marginally severe
  storms and locally heavy rains are possible.

- Near widespread coverage of measurable rain by Sunday with possible
  exceptions over the counties along the Rio Grande.

- Above average temperatures most of the week with seasonably mild
  temperatures expected Sunday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1222 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

A typical spring cold front arrives today, bringing the best chance
of rain since Valentines Day and possibly the highest 2-day rainfall
amounts so far this year. As promising as the pattern looks, the
deterministic models paint a more uncertain picture than do the
consensus blends and ensembles. Thus we`ll have to go through the
careful wording of saying "not everyone will get rain" but also
"quality rainfall amounts over 1/4 inch can be expected over about
80 percent of our forecast area". This is stated here to provide
some guidance to all the agriculture and gardening interests out
there that are anxiously awaiting a soaking rain. Those missing out
of the higher totals would likely be areas west of Highway 83 and
especially along the Rio Grande.

An equally significant, if not moreso, concern with this pattern is
the threat for severe weather. The combination of the front,
moderate shear, and robust CAPE values exceeding 2000 J/kg at times
could lead to large hail and damaging winds with a few of the storms
nearest to the front capable of producing some hail sizes in excess
of 2 inches. It is March after all.

The front should reach our northern forecast area counties by around
10 AM and reach Austin and Del Rio by around noon as clusters of
mostly disorganized convection takes shape along and behind the
front. San Antonio is always tough to pick on spring front timing,
especially those moving through the midday hours. Various
deterministic runs are also showing a small surface low near San
Antonio which could further cloud the picture on when that cool air
wind shift takes place. Most recent model runs show the front
through San Antonio before 3 PM. If that timing is on point, it
would mean that San Antonio and areas east along and south of I-10
would have the potential to see the strongest of storms and
potentially the highest rainfall totals. Since training along the
front is possible, meso-scale models hint of an isolated total or
two over 4 inches, mainly over the Coastal Prairies and south of San
Antonio.

Scattered elevated convection could continue the mainly hail threat
well into the evening and well behind the front. Most model data
shows waning intensities just after midnight Sunday. Mostly light
elevated convection could continue through the daytime hours Sunday,
and the chance of measurable rains is forecast at a solid 50-80
percent. Typical QPF amounts for Sunday should be mainly under 1/4
inch. The convection an almost solid cloud cover behind the front
should give us a cool break from the recent warm pattern, but it
shouldn`t last long.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 1222 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

The broad trough and shortwave that brought today`s front will
separate from the north and south as a cut-off low sets up to the
west of TX Sunday. The low should nudge slowly east toward TX giving
the area another big rain chance by midweek.

Overrunning moisture and instability continues into Sunday night,
but rainfall coverage and amounts should continue to decrease as the
frontal layer dissolves. By midday Monday, the winds are expected to
turn back southerly over all areas. There should still be plenty of
clouds, but also plenty of breaks, and that will lead to a return
of warmer than normal highs in the upper 70s and 80s.

The model consensus from a couple days ago would have suggested a
direct hit from this cut-off low from Tuesday into as late as
Thursday. All this is pulling away in the last 24 hours worth of
model runs, and we should see a correction in the blended guidances
with a weaker convective picture and lowering QPF values for Tuesday
night and Wednesday. If the latest 00Z family of solutions were to
verify, it would still mean a good round of convection for South
Central TX, and near widespread coverage for the eastern 3/4 of the
area, similar to that of today through Sunday. If the dprog/dt trend
shift continues, we could end up with further disappointment, as the
long-term drought continues to worsen.

The remainder of the 7-day forecast leaves no opportunity for rain.
The departing low should leave us at least 1 day of seasonably cool
temperatures, but hot temperatures in the 80s to near 90 are
suggested to return by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

MVFR ceilings are in place over I-35 terminals and continue to build
west towards KDRT arriving in the next few hours. Southerly wind
continues overnight with some occasional gusts to 20 knots though
this morning. A cold front moves across across South Central Texas
as early as late morning, but reaches terminals in the afternoon.
Wind shifts from the north to northeast behind this feature and may
initially be gusty. Showers and thunderstorms are expected along
this feature, some of which could be strong to severe with large
hail and damaging wind possible. Models favor I-35 terminals for
thunderstorms, though they could occur as far west as KDRT. Any
return to VFR conditions this afternoon will be short-lived  with
MVFR ceilings forecast to redevelop tonight into Sunday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              81  56  71  63 /  80  60  50  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  83  55  71  61 /  80  60  60  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     83  56  70  61 /  80  60  60  30
Burnet Muni Airport            73  52  68  60 /  90  50  50  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           82  57  68  62 /  50  40  70  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        78  53  70  60 /  90  60  40  20
Hondo Muni Airport             81  55  70  60 /  80  60  70  50
San Marcos Muni Airport        83  56  71  61 /  80  60  60  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   86  59  73  64 /  80  70  60  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       81  58  70  64 /  80  70  70  40
Stinson Muni Airport           84  60  71  64 /  70  70  70  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...27