McKinney, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

584
FXUS64 KFWD 300640
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
140 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will bring numerous showers and storms across North
  and Central Texas early this morning. A few storms may contain
  damaging winds and hail.

- Following a dry Friday and Saturday, thunderstorm chances return
  Saturday night into Sunday, with frequent storm chances from
  Monday night through the rest of next week. Some storms could be
  strong or possibly severe, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday.



&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today through Tonight/

Radar this morning shows widespread showers and thunderstorms have
developed across much of North Texas and western Central Texas in
association with a passing H5 shortwave trough and associated
weak surface cold front. This activity will continue southeastward
through 14-15Z or so before exiting off to the east. As we have
seen already early this morning, a storm or two could briefly
become severe with a hail and wind threat. However, most of the
activity will remain sub-severe. Once the storm activity exits, a
cooler and dry Friday is anticipated with highs only in the upper
70s to low 80s. Tonight looks quite nice for late May thanks to
the somewhat cooler and drier airmass behind the front, with lows
mostly in the 60s.


Shamburger

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 219 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025/
/Saturday Onward/

In the wake of the late week cold front, Saturday should be fairly
cool by late May standards with highs in the 80s while rain
chances remain confined to areas south of the CWA near the
gradually dissipating frontal zone. Flow aloft will become
increasingly northwesterly over the weekend as an upper ridge
amplifies to our west, with perhaps a fast-moving disturbance
traversing portions of the Central Plains into the Mississippi
Valley. This may initiate and support a southward-moving
convective complex late in the weekend which could affect some
of our northeast/east zones on Sunday, but this is such a
mesoscale-driven scenario that it remains highly uncertain being
beyond the day 3 forecast period. We`ll keep PoPs at 10% or less
for now.

Heading into next week, the upper ridge just to our west will
rapidly break down as broad western CONUS troughing becomes
established. This will allow multiple disturbances to ignite a few
rounds of convection during the remainder of the extended
forecast period as we remain placed within a unstable warm sector
ahead of a West Texas dryline. Each afternoon/evening, convection
will likely initiate just to our west or even within our CWA and
spread eastward. Coverage may be most widespread on
Tuesday/Wednesday as a frontal zone also impinges on North Texas,
aiding with ascent. All activity during this time period will
have the potential to be strong or severe with ample instability
and moderate shear. The persistent troughiness and convective
activity (along with increased cloud cover) will keep temperatures
near or slightly below normal through most of next week as we
move into meteorological summer.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

Difficult TAFs this forecast period due to scattered SHRA/TSRA
early this morning with predominate VFR/MVFR conditions but tempo
IFR between 06-09Z. All SHRA/TSRA expected to move out by 09-10Z
but MVFR cigs will continue through 14Z at Metroplex airports, and
17Z at KACT, before improving back to VFR. North winds 5-10 knots
are anticipated through the TAF period.

Shamburger

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  65  86  69  90 /  20   0   0   5  10
Waco                80  62  83  67  90 /  20   5   5   5  10
Paris               79  58  82  64  85 /  10   0   0   5   5
Denton              79  59  85  64  89 /  20   0   0   5  10
McKinney            79  60  84  65  88 /  20   0   0   5  10
Dallas              80  64  86  68  91 /  20   0   0   5  10
Terrell             79  60  84  65  88 /  20   0   0   5  10
Corsicana           81  63  85  67  90 /  20   5   0   0  10
Temple              81  64  85  66  92 /  30   5   5   0  10
Mineral Wells       79  61  86  65  92 /  20   5   0   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$