Lubbock, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

968
FXUS64 KLUB 180850
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
250 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 250 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

 - Light snow accumulations possible for the Far Southern Texas
   Panhandle and northern portions of the South Plains late this
   afternoon and evening.

 - Below-freezing temps for many areas beginning this evening and
   continuing through Tuesday morning.

 - Wind chills of 0 to 10 tonight and Sunday night, then single
   digits below zero for Monday and Tuesday mornings.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

The arctic front decided to slow last evening but has finally
pushed through the region. The strong westerly winds have
diminished and shifted northeasterly following the FROPA along
with the first surge of cold air. This first surge will bring
lower than normal temperatures today with highs in the 30s to 40s.
NBM came in too warm with the arctic air, therefore bumped high
temperatures down to NBM25th. Mid to upper level troughing has set
up over central CONUS and will move southeastward pumping more
cold air into our region by late afternoon and evening. By mid-
day, the trough will bring a jet max overhead and some low level
frontogenetical forcing will increase cloud cover and bring snow
chances to northern portions of the South Plains although only
light accumulations are expected with most areas only getting a
dusting. With the second surge of cold air tonight, we will see
the lowest low temperatures for this season in the single digits
to upper teens. Wind chills overnight will reach single digits,
especially on the Caprock.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 250 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

Modified arctic air will continue draining into the region on
Sunday morning with 850 mb temps hovering between -10C and -14C
shortly after sunrise. These temps will undergo some warming by
the afternoon as the surface ridge shifts east and curls winds
more easterly; however, the source region of these winds will
remain downright cold so NBM`s high temps were once again
discarded in favor of its 25th percentile. Lows Sunday night
don`t look to be as bitter thanks to an increase in mid and high
clouds tied to a shortwave trough curling our way from the
Colorado Plateau. This wave encourages a southerly LLJ of 30-35
knots by Sunday night complete with thicker low and mid-level
clouds that linger through Monday. These clouds should hold most
areas below freezing for a second day even as the parent impulse
shears out to our north.

Monday night features a sharper shortwave trough in N-NW flow that
drags a cold front through the region and switches our southeast
winds northeasterly. Models and ensembles have not completely ruled
out saturated ascent with this wave, although the mostly dry NBM
may need some revisiting in later forecasts if this wave keeps
trending more moist. Cooled Tuesday`s highs 2-5 degrees from NBM
as most models are overturning the arctic air too quickly even as
our easterlies swing around to light westerlies behind the
surface ridge. Have a sneaking suspicion that the ECMWF`s sub-
freezing highs for Tuesday may be on the money in this pattern,
especially off the Caprock where arctic air loves to loiter.
Stronger and deeper westerlies by Wednesday fuel an abrupt warmup
ahead of the next cold front arriving that night from a
meridional trough.

&&

.AVIATION...Turbulence aloft should taper off toward sunrise
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1026 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

A complex frontal boundary has largely stalled between KPVW and
KLBB in a rather unexpected fashion resulting in a delayed shift
to northerly winds. Still, we expect the frontal surge to get
moving again shortly. Conditions should remain VFR tonight and
much of the day tomorrow before MVFR stratus moves in from the
north behind a secondary surge of a colder low-level airmass
Saturday evening.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...26