Lubbock, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

780
FXUS64 KLUB 200526
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1226 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1225 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

 - Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected through the first half
   of this weekend.

 - Chances for monsoonal thunderstorms remain forecast late Sunday and
   through the middle of next week, mainly to the west of I-27.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

01Z upper air analysis reveals a subtropical ridge arcing over the
southern tranche of the U.S., with the center of the mid-level
anticyclone located over central N TX on water-vapor imagery. An
amplifying, positively-tilted trough was also digging into the
Pacific Northwest, which will continue to cause the subtropical to
shift towards the Mississippi River Valley throughout the next 24
hours. A small field of towering cu over Briscoe County earlier has
since failed from the strong subsidence associated with the ridging
and lack of low-level convergence, and the shallow cu field is
otherwise eroding as vertical mixing begins to cease.

At the surface, southeasterly winds were breezy and will remain so
throughout the overnight hours, as leeward pressure falls generated
by a 250 mb jet streak approaching 100 kt emerges over the northern
Rocky Mountains. A surface trough was located west of the NM state
line, keeping the entire CWA within the moist sector. Temperatures
for tomorrow morning were raised a few degrees, as the breezy,
southerly winds and moist airmass will restrict the full of effects
of radiational cooling from coming to fruition. Surface winds will
accelerate by the late morning hours Friday, with sustained speeds
between 20-30 mph and gusts to 30-35 mph forecast area-wide. High
temperatures will be similar to today, in the middle 90s, as the
rising geopotential heights will eventually neutralize by Friday
evening as the apex of the ridge moves east of the I-35 corridor.

A high-based cu field will once again develop in concert with peak
boundary-layer mixing, but strong subsidence and the lack of any
convergence will preclude storm development Friday. The subtropical
ridge is expected to continue shifting eastward heading into the
beginning of the weekend, with the positively-tilted trough pivoting
into the northern Rocky Mountains. Surface winds will remain
elevated at around 20-30 mph tomorrow night into Saturday morning,
as leeward pressure falls will be maintained from cyclogenesis far
to the north of the CWA amidst a clear sky and warm temperatures.

Sincavage

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

The subtropical ridge is forecast to stall over the spine of the
Appalachian Mountains late this weekend and into next week, which
will slow the eastward progression of the positively-tilted trough
digging into the Intermountain West. The CWA will, therefore, be
sandwiched between these two amplified, large-scale features,
causing the monsoonal fetch, which is already present over the
southern Rocky Mountains, to deflect slightly eastward towards W TX
late Sunday night. The superposition of the monsoonal fetch is
forecast to be maintained through at least the middle part of next
week, as the subtropical ridge gradually sloshes towards the Eastern
Seaboard while continuing to amplify to near 598 dam.

Persistence forecasting has once again been applied for the weekend,
with similar high temperatures expected Saturday and Sunday, albeit
slightly cooler Sunday. Cyclogenesis of sub-1000 mb lows are
forecast to occur daily across the northern Great Plains, and will
maintain the strong, leeward pressure falls across the entire
region. Low-end windy conditions will persist through the weekend
before finally tapering off Monday, though still breezy, as the
northern-stream shortwave trough ejects into Manitoba. Prospects for
monsoonal thunderstorms continue to be forecast across portions of
the Caprock, primarily to the west of the I-27 corridor. The best
chances appear to be Monday night, as the CWA will be within close
proximity or entirely within the right entrance-region to the 250 mb
jet streak. The southerly component throughout the steering layer
(i.e., 700-300 mb wind) will facilitate the prolonged maintenance of
moist, isentropic ascent atop the moist and unstable airmass. Wind
shear throughout the deep- and cloud-bearing layers will be weak,
which will keep the risk low for severe-caliber storms. Locally
heavy rainfall and a few cases of flash flooding will be the primary
hazard, which is typical of monsoonal patterns. NBM PoPs have been
maintained with this prognostication, and temperatures are forecast
to be near seasonal norms throughout all of next week.

Sincavage

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

VFR conditions are expected to continue this TAF period. Light
winds early this morning will increase mid-morning and become
gusty from the south.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...07