Lubbock, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

915
FXUS64 KLUB 050331
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1031 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

 - Additional thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening, some
   severe.

 - Chances for storms continue almost every afternoon and evening
   next week.

 - Hot temperatures next week with possible Heat Advisories by
   late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

The regional surface map at 10 PM featured at least three outflow
boundaries; one bisecting the South Plains, another in the far
southeast Texas Panhandle, and a more prominent example along
I-40. All of these outflows were in advance of a weak front in the
northern Texas Panhandle preceding a broad sector of ENE breezes.
This front is scheduled to continue its southward push overnight
and reach the South Plains and Rolling Plains by mid-morning,
before stalling nearby or even retreating thereafter. The latest
NBM did lower high temps across the board which fits well with
this weak front and its light E-NE winds.

Following any leftover morning showers or brief storms with the
front, the next and bigger bout of storms should develop by early
afternoon near the decaying front. There is also a signal for an MCV
or two loitering nearby in light northerly flow aloft, so PoPs
remain broad in coverage with a general preference for locations
nearest the front. The degree of CAPE is in question more than usual
as some models mix out dewpoints on the Caprock into the 40s
resulting in miniscule CAPEs. Will opt for an ensemble mean that
depicts 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE (highest off the Caprock), with
DCAPEs equal to even greater given a deep and dry sub-cloud layer.
As such, downbursts would be the greatest severe storm threat.
These storms are likely to move with a bit more conviction thanks
to a deeper and more uniform northerly flow in the cloud-bearing
layer, so PoPs tapering overnight from north-to-south look good.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Additional storms remains in the offing at times next week as the
forecast area remains on the eastern flank of a sprawling dome of
high pressure over southern New Mexico and Arizona. The main
exception to storms occurs Tuesday through Thursday as the ridge
axis trends more zonal while expanding over the Texas Panhandle and
northern South Plains, effectively suppressing deep convection. No
coincidence, these days are also host to our hottest numbers of the
forecast with some locales off the Caprock pushing Heat Advisory
levels (105-109 degrees). Thereafter, the upper high retreats and
eventually amplifies over the northern Rockies. This process opens
our doors to what looks like an unsettled northerly flow regime from
Thursday night into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue at all TAF sites through
the remainder of the period. There is a small chance VCTS creeps
into the KPVW terminal late this evening, although confidence in
this remains too low for a TAF mention.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...12