Lubbock, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

444
FXUS64 KLUB 111856
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
156 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Near-record high temperatures are forecast tomorrow.

 - Record high temperatures are forecast Sunday, followed by a
   cooldown for the start of the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Currently, an upper level ridge is centered over the southwest with
an upper level trough over the eastern US. Breezy southwesterly
winds continue across the region underneath clear skies. A low level
jet will keep winds slightly breezy overnight.

The ridge is expected to move to the east while flattening to zonal
flow over the next couple days. Zonal flow over the rockies, coupled
with upper level divergence in the right entrance of a jet streak
centered over Wyoming will favor pressure falls and lee cyclogenesis
in eastern New Mexico/Colorado tomorrow afternoon. This will
strengthen winds over the area tomorrow to southwesterly 20-25
knots. While elevated fire conditions may be possible, fuel
conditions are only marginally favorable after the recent
precipitation this past weekend. Otherwise, quiet, hot, and calm
conditions are expected through Saturday evening.

-BT/AB/KL

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

In the mid/upper-levels, a split-flow pattern will persist across
the Lower 48, with the CWA located within the inflection point of a
shortwave trough ejecting into the northern Great Plains and the
subtropical ridge centered over central Mexico. Geopotential height
tendencies will become slightly negative as the northern-stream
shortwave trough impinges on the apex of the subtropical ridge,
facilitating the maintenance of the leeward pressure falls. The
surface trough will shuffle eastward while transitioning into a
diffuse dryline, and should near or cross the 100th meridian by peak
mixing. Westerly winds, combined with full insolation, will result
in very deep mixing of the boundary-layer, with forecast soundings
indicating superadiabatic lapse rates evolving by solar noon. High
temperatures will soar into record territory at LBB and CDS, with
highs ranging from near 90 degrees at the TX/NM state line to near
100 degrees in the Rolling Plains. Elevated-to-near-critical fire
weather conditions are forecast to develop Sunday, as the airmass
will be very dry, but the long-duration precipitation event from
last weekend has caused a significant green-up of vegetation across
the Caprock and into the Rolling Plains, which should mitigate a
more-substantial fire weather risk from evolving Sunday.

Temperatures at the start of the work week will be knocked back down
to seasonal norms following the passage of the polar cold front
spawned from the shortwave trough pivoting over the northern Great
Plains. The cold front is forecast to arrive shortly after midnight
CDT Monday, though an earlier timing will be possible, particularly
across the Caprock Escarpment. Meanwhile, a cirrus shield will
continue to thicken as the subtropical jet streak noses into the
region, which will further shunt boundary-layer depths within the
post-frontal environment Monday. The post-frontal breeze will
steadily veer northeastward throughout the day, becoming easterly
into the nighttime hours. There will not be much in the way of
moistening, as return flow will be slow to be re-established heading
into Tuesday. Tuesday morning is forecast to be the coolest of the
week, and is set to be followed by a rapid warm-up as shortwave
ridging is restored within the southern tranche of the split-flow
regime still encompassing the Lower 48 ahead of an amplifying trough
offshore Southern California.

PoPs for mid-week across the northern zones have been further
reduced, as the subtle shortwave trough is forecast to remain north
of the CWA while ejecting quickly into the central Great Plains,
causing the dryline to mix to or east of the 100th meridian. The
small area of PoPs across the far southeastern TX PH generated by
the NBM have been maintained, but the trends in the guidance are
indicating that the bulk of the moist, isentropic ascent will be
displaced northeast of the CWA. Global NWP guidance remains slightly
divergent on whether or not the embedded closed low within the
positively-tilted trough to the west becomes cut-off, which will
dictate when the trough is able to eject inland by the end of next
week. The arrival of this system is beyond the scope of this
forecast period, which ends next Friday, but bears watching for the
next potential for PoPs/thunderstorms.

Record high temperature table for this weekend:
_______________________________________________________________

       Lubbock Airport           Childress Airport
      Forecast  Record           Forecast   Record

Sat      95       96 (1972)         92       102 (2018)
Sun      96       91 (2006)         97        96 (1936)

_______________________________________________________________

Sincavage

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail. Breezy southerly winds will continue
over the next 24 hours with clear skies.

-AB/BT/KL

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...26