Lubbock, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

281
FXUS64 KLUB 201757
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1257 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1255 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

 - Isolated high-based storms mainly west of I-27/Highway 87 late
   this afternoon and evening which could produce strong wind
   gusts.

 - Temperatures cool slightly to values near normal during the
   middle of the week, warming above average again by next
   weekend.

 - Thunderstorm chances return each afternoon and evening from
   Monday through Thursday, the severe threat remains low.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

An upper-ridge extending from the Mid-MS VLy westward over NW TX
remains the most prominent feature for us. Late morning temperatures
according to the West Texas Mesonet are running generally 2 to 5
degrees warmer than yesterday at this time, which supports the trend
of many locations pushing 100 degrees this afternoon, perhaps
including Lubbock. While temperatures have warmed, dewpoints remain
steady, which means we`ll see a little higher theta-e values this
afternoon. Forecast sounding suggest that the strong heating will
exceed the convective temps across the west and we should see at
least isolated t-storms develop. Convergence is pretty weak within
the surface trough along the TX/NM state line but that should be the
preferred area for development. Forecast sounding profiles show very
high lcls, with roughly 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE, 1000-1500 J/kg of
DCAPE, PWATs around 1-1.2 inches, and very weak deep-layer
flow/shear. This argues for slow-moving, poorly organized storms
capable of hybrid microbursts and perhaps some isolated heavy
downpours. A bit uncertain if the developing LLJ tonight will be
able to sustain any activity or if the inversion will be become too
strong shortly after sunset, but in general we think the activity
should die off by midnight. On Monday, a subtle weakness in the
upper ridge develops across eastern NM and this should result in a
little better chance for late day storm development across our
western counties. Deep-layer shear and moisture values should also
increase slightly which means that there may be a locally heavy rain
threat. Temperatures should remain relatively unchanged with highs
in the mid 90s to near 100 on the Caprock and upper 90s to about 103
in the Rolling Plains. Apparent Temps should be near the ambient
temperatures so we should remain shy of heat advisory criteria,
although we could get closest in the far southern Panhandle/Caprock
Canyons area and the excessive heat risk is elevated in that area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

The long term forecast remains on track this morning, with water
vapor imagery showing the upper level ridge dominating  much of the
southern half of the US. This ridge is expected to begin a slight
shift eastward Monday as an upper level trough over the PacNW digs
into portions of northern California. Thus, amplifying the ridge
over the eastern CONUS which in return will allow flow aloft over
the region to shift out of the southwest. This synoptic pattern will
favor the return of showers and thunderstorms in addition to cooler
temperatures through at least mid-week, before we see the return of
drier and warmer conditions this weekend as the upper high moves
back over the region.

At the surface, southwest surface winds will begin to veer more out
of the south-southeast by early Tuesday as a lee trough deepens
over eastern New Mexico and a surface high pressure anchors over the
Gulf States region. These moist southerly winds from the surface to
mid-levels, combined with the corridor of monsoonal moisture
streaming into the region around the H3 to H7 levels, will support
efficient moisture set up. PWATs are forecast to range from 1.25" to
1.60", well above seasonal normals for this time of year, while
dewpoints steadily climb into the upper 50s and 60s through mid-week
as this surface pattern prevails. Although forcing for ascent
remains modest, a few embedded perturbations moving through in
addition to isentropic ascent noted at the 315K level should be
enough for shower and thunderstorms to develop. PoPs during this
time period look to remain confined generally to areas along and
west of the I-27 corridor, really favoring the TX/NM state line, a
result from the H5 ridge still clipping portions of our eastern CWA,
and where we will likely see moisture convergence and instability
maximized. The overall severe threat remains low, however locally
gusty winds cannot be ruled out with any stronger storm that
develops given the well mixed boundary layer and dry sub cloud layer
denoted on forecast soundings. Locally heavy rainfall and efficient
rainfall rates could also lead to localized areas of flash flooding,
with soundings also denoting long skinny CAPE profiles and a well
saturated column of moisture. However the heavy rainfall threat
looks confined to the late Tuesday evening through early Wednesday
morning time period, when the LLJ ramps up supporting upscale storm
growth and sustained convection through the overnight period.
Something that we see quite a bit during this time of the year. As
mentioned already, showers and thunderstorms will be possible each
afternoon and evening through Thursday. By the end of the week,
drier and warmer conditions will likely return as an upper level
ridge amplifies over much of the Central and Southern Plains, with
ensemble guidance projecting the center of the H5 high pressure
system over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

VFR conditions will predominate at all terminals for the
next 24 hours. There is a low chance of TSRA in the vicinity of KLBB
and KPVW this evening - and again late Monday afternoon. The LLJ
will once again pick up tonight and lead to some choppiness for
takeoffs and landings through Sunday morning. Also recommend
checking density altitude with the hot temperatures across the area
this afternoon and again Monday afternoon.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...33