Lubbock, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

408
FXUS64 KLUB 250505
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1205 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1205 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

 - A few isolated to scattered storms are expected Monday
   evening, mainly over western portions of the Caprock.

 - Showers and thunderstorms are expected to become more numerous
   across the entire region on Tuesday.

 - Storm chances gradually decrease Wednesday into Thursday before
   increasing again by next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

The upper ridge will continue to dominate our weather through Monday
although it will begin to loosen its grip later in the day on
Monday. The ridge axis will shift overhead early Monday morning
keeping large scale subsidence aloft. However, the axis will shift
east of the area in the afternoon. At the same time, a closed off
low will be moving onshore and into the southwestern US. Upper level
winds will be on the increase Monday afternoon as an upper level jet
streak moves across northern Mexico. A short wave rotating around
the parent low will emerge across central New Mexico in the
afternoon bringing substantial large scale ascent to that area.
Subsidence aloft will slowly be replaced increasing ascent in the
afternoon. Low level flow will remain southeasterly through the day
but deep boundary layer mixing will allow surface dew points to drop
into the 40s on the caprock. Low level forcing is therefore expected
to be weak with the upslope flow. Abundant convection is expected in
New Mexico closer to the aforementioned short wave trough. Any low
level forcing would likely have to arise from any residual
convective boundaries or newly created convective boundaries from
expected convection in New Mexico. We will see some modest
instability on Monday afternoon despite warming mid-level
temperatures. Mixed layer CAPE values will be on the order of up to
1000 J/kg on the caprock under the deeply mixed boundary layer.
Capping will weaken by late afternoon but warm surface temperatures
and the mixed boundary layer will create a high based cu field.
Temperatures are forecast to be around seasonal averages for Monday
afternoon with temperatures mostly in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Better chances of convection will emerge on Tuesday as another short
wave trough rotates around the longer wave western CONUS trough.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Tuesday will see more widespread convective chances across the FA as
a negatively tilted short wave trough rotates overhead around the
longer wave trough covering the western CONUS. At the moment, the
timing on the short wave would be optimal bringing the maximum
amount of large scale ascent during the afternoon on Tuesday. Upper
level jet winds are not expected to be that impressive with speeds
only around 40-60kt but will still bring wind divergence overhead. A
big wrinkle in the convective forecast will be the relatively cool
surface temperatures. Low stratus may encompass much of the region
through the entire daytime keeping the surface temperatures cool.
The surface pattern will also be made further unclear with potential
morning convection. The true potential for convective activity for
Tuesday afternoon will depend on the Tuesday morning evolution.
Another short wave trough will move over the area on Wednesday but
the trough axis will be directly overhead during the afternoon
leading to lift over the Rolling Plains and subsidence moving in
over the caprock. Short wave ridging will then push overhead on
Thursday allowing for at least one dry day. Southwest flow aloft
this weekend will keep convective chances going each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Isolated TSTMs ongoing west of KLBB continue to weaken and will
not affect the terminal. VFR prevails otherwise at KCDS, KLBB, and
KPVW, with light winds. TSTMs that develop west of KLBB and KPVW
this afternoon are forecast to remain west of the terminals. There
is a slim chance for some localized CIG/VSBY reductions at KCDS
this morning, but confidence is low. Trends are being monitored.

Sincavage

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...09