Laredo, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

801
FXUS64 KCRP 061120
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
620 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Key Messages:

- Tropical Storm Milton in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Milton
is not expected to have any direct impacts to South Texas, other
than increasing swells over the coastal waters by early in the week.

- Minor coastal Flooding expected during times of high tide through
Monday in response to a strengthening northeast wind across the
coastal waters and increasing swell periods.

- Moderate rip current risk on Monday.

There is a low (15%) chance of rain showers and thunderstorms along
the Middle Texas Coast for the day, as Milton continues to move
slowly east and the old boundary over the Gulf, continues to produce
convection. This sfc trough is filling and a new area of high
pressure in the N Plains will continue to move to the southeast,
with its tail end building into the South Texas. The models show the
rain showers mainly this morning, before Milton moves east toward
the Yucatan Peninsula, and begins to help reinforce the north to
northeast flow on tonight and Monday. The dry air associated with
the sfc high looks rather dry with PWAT values of around 1.00" for
Monday. Looking upstream, where the dry air is now, skies will
remain mostly sunny today, and sunny on Monday. High temperatures
will remain in the 90-95F range through Monday before any
temperatures changes are to occur (see the Long Term section).

While Milton isn`t expected to affect the region directly, the
cyclone will produce NE winds that will begin to increase the risk
of rip currently to moderate on Monday. Not to mention that the
Swell periods are expected to increase to 7-8 seconds on Monday as
well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Key Messages:

- Increasing risk of minor coastal flooding and rip currents through
  the middle of next week associated with Tropical Storm Milton

A mid to upper level ridge will move over the southern Great Plains
from the west while Tropical Storm Milton moves eastward across the
Gulf of Mexico. A weak cold front early this week will stall just
north of the area across the Hill Country, eventually pushing
through South Texas mid-week as a reinforcing northerly flow Milton
moves across the Florida Peninsula. The weak cold front won`t drop
our temperatures much, but it will usher in significantly drier air
which will our heat index (feels like temperature) near 90 degrees
from mid-week through next weekend.

Our greatest concern through the middle of next week will be
hazardous marine and beach conditions. Swell periods of 8-10
seconds, wave heights of 4-6 feet, and persistent northeasterly flow
promoting Ekman forcing, will likely cause water to reach the dunes
during high tide. In addition, there will be an increasing risk of
rip currents.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

VCT is the only site that currently is MVFR (5sm) this morning,
although ALI still has a 40% chance of being below 5 SM over the
next hour or two. Otherwise spotty convection (10-15% coverage)
over the Gulf, which should remain south of CRP and ALI. LRD and
COT are expected to remain free of restrictions this morning. For
the afternoon and overnight, expect VFR CIGs and VSBYs over the
region.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

East to northeast weak to moderate flow this morning will increase
to moderate to strong during the afternoon offshore with a Small
Craft Advisory. The winds tonight will diminish this evening to
moderate, so that Small Craft Exercise Caution tonight, and then
back to weak to moderate flow Monday. Weak to moderate northeasterly
flow will remain in place Monday night through Thursday before
winds shift back to the east Thursday night. Rain chances will be
near zero for much of the week before increasing to just under 10%
late this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    91  72  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          95  67  96  65 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            94  71  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             93  69  94  67 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          92  74  93  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           97  71  96  68 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        91  71  92  69 /  10   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       87  77  88  75 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CDT Monday for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for GMZ270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM....JCP
AVIATION...JSL/86