Irving, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

037
FXUS64 KFWD 171811
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
111 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and breezy weather will continue through Friday afternoon.

- Storm chances return late Friday evening and continue through
  Easter morning. A few storms could be strong or severe. Some
  locations across North Texas may also see periods of heavy rain
  Saturday and Sunday.

- Additional rounds of showers and storms will arrive towards the
  middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday/

A deepening upper trough over the Intermountain West will keep
strong southerly low-level flow over North and Central Texas
through the end of the work week. Expect sustained southerly winds
at 15-25 mph gusting to 30 mph at times through Friday. This
southerly flow regime will maintain above-average temperatures and
continue to draw greater quality moisture northward into our
region. Surface dewpoints will inch into the mid 60s across much
of our forecast area by Friday morning with afternoon highs
largely in the mid to upper 80s both today and Friday. Another
round of morning stratus is likely across much of the region
Friday morning with ample mid/upper-level cloud cover streaming
overhead by midday Friday in the strengthening southwest flow
aloft. Isolated to scattered high-based showers may start to
develop during the afternoon and evening hours on Friday,
primarily across parts of North Texas. A relatively dry sub-cloud
layer beneath ~9-10kft will keep much of this precipitation from
reaching the ground, but do expect some virga and maybe even some
35-45 mph wind gusts beneath these mid-level showers. Deep
convection and thunderstorm chances will arrive later Friday night
into the weekend.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Friday Night and Beyond/

The base of the aforementioned trough will pass over the Four
Corners region Friday night. Ahead of this system, surface low
pressure will develop over far southwestern Oklahoma and the
eastern Texas Panhandle Friday evening with a cold front extending
northeast toward the Missouri Ozarks. Scattered thunderstorm
development is likely near the triple point and south along the
dryline late Friday evening into Friday night in the southwest
Oklahoma-Childress-Wichita Falls area. Initial development will
pose a large hail risk with storms evolving into more of a wind
threat through the overnight. Most of this activity should remain
northwest of our forecast area, but we cannot rule out a storm
cluster or two nudging into our far northwestern counties,
including Montague, Stephens, Jack, and Young, during the
overnight.

More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday
into early Sunday. By Saturday morning, the upper trough/low will
shift over New Mexico with a cold front pushing into North Texas.
Thunderstorm coverage will very gradually increase from west-
northwest to east-southeast through the day Saturday as the front
makes slow progress through our forecast area. Much of the
Saturday activity should remain along and west of the I-35/I-35W
corridor. Expansive mid/high-level cloud cover will inhibit the
degree of diurnal destabilization keeping the severe weather
threat on the lower end. However, modest instability and strong
shear will promote the potential for a couple stronger storms
capable of producing small hail and gusty winds through the day.

Thunderstorm coverage and intensity will likely peak Saturday
night into Sunday morning as the upper trough enters the Southern
Plains and the front shifts toward the I-35 corridor and east.
Very moist atmospheric profiles (PWATs in the 1.4-1.7" range
nearing max climatological values), strong synoptic scale lift,
and a 40-45 kt low-level jet will promote widespread thunderstorm
development and locally heavy rainfall near and behind the front
through the overnight into Sunday morning. Rainfall totals will
start to stack up during this time frame, especially over
locations that experience training thunderstorms. A widespread 1-2
inches northwest of a Paris to Goldthwaite line remains likely
with isolated 3-4+" totals primarily north of the I-20 corridor.
Lesser totals in the 0.25-0.75" range are expected southeast of a
Canton-Killeen line. The severe threat will remain on the lower
end with primarily a isolated hail and damaging wind threat. There
may be a several hour period during the late evening into early
overnight period where strong low-level wind shear overlaps with
sufficient instability which could briefly increase the tornado
threat, primarily along/north of I-20 and east of I-35. This
threat will be largely dependent on the available instability
though.

Precipitation will exit to the east by midday Sunday with dry
conditions prevailing through at least Monday. Looking ahead,
extended guidance continues to paint an active pattern over the
Southern Plains with rain chances everyday starting late Tuesday
through at least Friday of next week.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail through this evening with BKN high
clouds streaming over North and Central Texas. South winds at
15-20 kts gusting to 30 kts at times will persist through the
overnight and into Friday. Another round of MVFR stratus near
~2kft is likely for several hours Friday morning (~08Z-17Z at KACT
and ~10Z-15Z over D10).

Langfeld

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    88  67  86  67  79 /   0   0  10  30  70
Waco                87  67  87  69  82 /   0   0  10  10  60
Paris               83  64  84  68  79 /   0   0  10  20  50
Denton              87  63  85  63  77 /   0   0  20  60  80
McKinney            85  65  84  66  79 /   0   0  10  30  70
Dallas              88  67  87  68  79 /   0   0  10  30  70
Terrell             85  66  85  68  80 /   0   0  10  20  60
Corsicana           87  68  88  70  84 /   0   0  10  10  60
Temple              89  67  89  68  84 /   0   5   5  10  60
Mineral Wells       92  64  89  64  79 /   0   5  20  60  80

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$