Houston, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

871
FXUS64 KHGX 141057
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
457 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog, some locally dense are expected through early this
  morning. Drive with caution and be sure to slow down if you
  encounter fog.

- Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
  on Saturday. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are
  possible in the afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and small
  hail are the main hazards, while a brief tornado or two cannot
  be ruled out.

- After a weak cold front passes, conditions will turn drier and
  warmer Monday and continuing into the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1224 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Two main weather concerns exist in the short-term period: fog
tonight and the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms later today.
In the near term, the environment continues to be favorable for fog
development, though confidence in how far inland it will spread
remains moderate. Based on observations and short-term guidance, the
highest chances will occur over the coastal counties, and portions
east of the I-45 corridor. A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect
for portions of coastal counties. It might be expanded further
inland if conditions worsen before winds start to pick up.

The next concern will be increasing showers and thunderstorms ahead
and along of a strong upper-level trough and its associated cold
front. No significant changes have been made to the previous
forecast package.

Per water vapor satellite imagery, the trough is currently
spinning across the Desert Southwest, pushing a rich plume of
Pacific moisture at mid to high levels of the atmosphere. At the
surface, southerly winds continue to surge deep Gulf moisture into
the region. In fact, 850mb moisture transport and theta-e advection
have started to fill in across central TX late this evening. In
addition, a broad area of isentropic ascent on the 295-300 K
surfaces will enhance in the coming hours, resulting in increased
rain chances as the day progresses. So, we`ll likely see light to
moderate showers starting overnight, but the real concern arrives
late this afternoon into the evening hours when the cold front
pushes a line of storms across the region.

Ahead of and near this boundary, latest HREF and RAP analysis show 0-
6km deep layer shear in the 45 to 60 kt range with MLCAPE values
gradually increasing in the afternoon between 420 - 1000 J/kg. This
would support the risk for hail with any initial, stronger updrafts.
It is worth noting that, 0-3km helicity increases into the 250 to
350 m^2sec^-2 in the afternoon; therefore, isolated strong updrafts
with some mesovortices are possible. As the boundary reaches our
western counties (Brazos Valley area) by mid-late afternoon,
orientation of shear vectors suggests some growth in the convective
mode and with DCAPE values between 500-1000 J/kg, the primary threat
will likely transition to more of a damaging wind threat. As
mentioned before, a ribbon of low-level vorticity remains in place
and near the boundary, so isolated tornadoes remain the secondary
threat.

There are still a few features in place that could potentially
impact the strength and progression of this squall line. If the sun
comes out during the day, it will fuel the atmosphere, increasing
the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms. However, if it stays
cloudy and rainy, that could help weaken the storms before they
reach us.

Overall, expect scattered to widespread showers with a few
thunderstorms beginning to move across the region early today. By
the afternoon, rain and storms will increase in intensity and
coverage, with the greatest threat of severe weather arriving by mid-
late afternoon from west to east. Excessive rainfall potential is
minimal as the boundary seems to be progressive; however, pockets of
heavy rain in thunderstorms may lead to minor flooding/ponding. Stay
weather aware today, especially if you have outdoor plans and make
sure to have a Plan B or delay your plans.

The front should be moving across the region by early evening and
along the coast after 8 - 10 PM. Skies will become mostly clear from
west to east late tonight; before some wraparound (low) clouds
return by Sunday morning. Sunday will be slightly cooler under
breezy northerly winds. High temperatures will range from the upper
60s to mid 70s and it will feel comfortable/less humid as dewpoints
remain in the 50s.

Ridging aloft will build in early next week, resulting in drier
conditions. With persistent southwest flow aloft, and 850
temperatures rising into the upper teens to low 20s degC by mid-
week, above normal temperatures are expected. Continued with
slightly warmer conditions as NBM guidance suggests...temperatures in
the low to mid 80s by the end of the long-term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 457 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

A mixed bag of IFR, MVFR, VFR ceilings and visibilities this
morning. By the late morning hours, ceilings will be predominantly
in the MVFR range as coverage of rain showers gradually increases
from west to east. Southeasterly to southerly winds will be on the
gusty side through the afternoon with gusts up to 25-30 kt at
times. Ceilings remain either near MVFR or borderline MVFR through
the afternoon. Some isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the
afternoon, but chances for thunderstorms increases in the late
afternoon through the evening hours as a line of storms develops
along a frontal boundary. Some of these storms could become
strong to severe with the potential to bring strong wind gusts.
The timing of these storms have been captured by the TEMPO groups.

In the wake of the front, there are some hints in the model
guidance for a brief window of reduced ceilings and visibilities
late tonight into early Sunday morning. There may be a brief lift
to VFR for some locations followed by wraparound cloud cover
bringing another period of MVFR clouds for northern terminals
going into the mid-morning hours. Winds will initially be westerly
behind the front and becoming northwesterly by Sunday morning.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1224 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Areas of dense fog will continue overnight and will persist into at
least sunrise. Lowest visibility continue to be at Galveston Bay and
nearshore waters from High Island to Freeport. A Dense Fog Advisory
remains in effect. While the lowest visibility is expected over this
region; cannot rule out reduced visibility as low as 2 - 3 NM near
Matagorda Bay and the adjacent Gulf waters through early morning.
Winds and seas will be increasing today ahead of the next
disturbance and associated cold front. Expect increasing rain and
storm chances from early this morning, with the highest
probabilities late this afternoon and evening. Some strong to severe
storms will be possible with brief heavy rain, damaging winds as the
main threats. Small hail and waterspouts are also possible. Elevated
winds and building seas up to 7 ft are also expected.Small Craft
Advisory will likely be issued at some point this morning and will
likely continue through late Sunday. Moderate to occasional offshore
winds can be expected in the wake of the front on Sunday. Drier
conditions and light onshore winds return early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  75  56  69  49 /  90  80   0   0
Houston (IAH)  75  60  73  53 /  80  90   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  69  60  69  57 /  50  80   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for TXZ200-
     213-214-238-300-313-338-438-439.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ335-
     355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...JM