Houston, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

615
FXUS64 KHGX 151137
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
637 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

- Low daytime relative humidity values and dry vegetation will
  lead to enhanced fire weather concerns today.

- Unseasonably warm weather continues as high temperatures in the
  upper 80s to lower 90s persist through the weekend.

- A slight chance of isolated showers and storms is back in the
  picture Friday and Saturday before a weak cold front moves into
  the area early Sunday ushering in a return of drier weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Remember back in the summer and we were looking forward to October
so that we could finally get some relief from the heat? Oh how naive
we were to think we`d have some fall-like weather for more than 2-3
days at a time. What do we even call this...Hot-ober, Summer-tober,
August 75th (yep I did the math)? With ridging remaining in place
going into Thursday, expect the heat to continue. Temperatures will
remain near or above normal during the daytime with highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s through the end of the work week. Low
temperatures will have quite a bit of variance depending on the
moisture of the airmass in place. A pocket of slightly drier air
moves overhead on Wednesday afternoon and lasting through the
evening hours, which will allow for temperatures to dip down into
the upper 50s to low 60s in the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods.
There will be more on the impacts of that drier air down in the Fire
Weather section down below. As onshore flow becomes firmly
established on Thursday, we`ll see low temperatures gradually
creeping upward towards the upper 60s to mid 70s by Friday night.

The ridge finally nudges eastward going into late Wednesday/early
Thursday as an inverted trough pushes in from south Texas while a
more robust upper level trough is pushing into the Plains. So, we
lose out on the subsidence on Thursday, but we won`t have enough
moisture in place yet for the PVA to generate much more than
increased cloud cover. It`ll be enough to shave off a degree or two
off of the high temperatures when compared to Wednesday. As onshore
flow continues to increase going into Friday, we`ll see PW values
surge into the 1.6-1.9" range. This will give us a better chance of
seeing isolated to scattered convection along the seabreeze, but we
could see that convection spread further inland as an embedded
shortwave trough remains overhead.

Going into Saturday, there will be a frontal boundary approaching
from the northwest, but FROPA timing still looks to be late Saturday
into early Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers/storms are expected
ahead of the frontal boundary on Saturday with the highest rain
chances along and east of I-45. Compressional heating ahead of the
front will lead to Saturday`s high temperatures reaching into the
low 90s for most locations. With humidity being on the high side,
heat index values are expected to peak in the mid to upper 90s...are
we sure we`re in October?! There are still some timing discrepancies
on exactly when the front pushes through, but once it does much
drier air will filter in behind it going into early next week. While
it will be drier, it won`t be much cooler...at least in the daytime.
Still expecting high temperatures to top out in the upper 80s to low
90s. On Sunday night, low temperatures will drop down into the upper
50s to mid 60s, but onshore flow returns late Monday leading to
gradually increasing overnight temperatures going into early next
week. This coincides with yet another ridge building in
overhead...so the wait continues on the first real cold front...

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

VFR conditions continue today with NE to E winds during the day,
becoming light and variable overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

The landbreeze/seabreeze cycle will prevail through today.
Onshore flow returns tonight and strengthens towards the end of
the work week. Seas will generally be around 1-2 ft through most
of the work week, then with the elevated onshore flow will rise to
3-4 ft Friday into Saturday. Expect risk of rip currents to
increase towards the end of the work week as well due to the
elevated onshore flow. Chances for shower/storms return as early
as late Thursday in the Gulf waters, but the best chances for rain
will be on Friday and Saturday as moisture steadily increases
ahead of a weak cold front. This frontal boundary looks to push
offshore early Sunday with drier air and a brief period of
northerly/northeasterly winds in its wake.

Batiste

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

With the dry conditions in place, we have another window through
Wednesday in which high fire danger is creeping into our portion
of Southeast Texas. The main concern here will be for an increased
number of fire starts. We`ll have low RH hitting minimums around
or below 30 percent today for inland areas. This will directly
impact fine fuel moistures, keeping them low, and prime a
"thirsty" atmosphere with a modestly high vapor pressure deficit
anomaly. With ERC values broadly in the 75-90th percentile
indicating drier than usual fuels, all it will take is a source of
ignition for a wildfire to begin. The latest update from the Texas
A&M Forest Service shows a moderate to high fire danger rating for
most of Southeast Texas with a very high fire danger rating for
portions of the Piney Woods for today.

The winds, on the other hand, appear to be a bit of a mitigating
factor. Winds less than 10 knots are anticipated through this dry
stretch. So, while we may be in an environment conducive to fire
starts, the lower winds should make them spread less quickly and
be more receptive to firefighting efforts. Still, it`s best not to
have the wildfire in the first place, so taking extra precaution
with flame and equipment that can generate sparks is the way to
go. Later in the week, we should see improvement in the situation
as winds become more onshore, and more humid air works back in
from the Gulf.

Luchs/Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  90  59  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  88  66  87  71 /   0   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  83  76  84  76 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Batiste