Houston, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

015
FXUS64 KHGX 300522
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1222 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025

...New LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025

Visible satellite imagery shows the sea/bay breeze gradually working
its way inland along the coastal counties. With temperatures mainly
in the upper 80s and a nearly non-existent capping inversion (and
plenty of instability to work with), we`ll continue to monitor for
the potential for isolated showers/storms to develop along this
boundary through the afternoon. Low-level lapse rates are fairly
steep with DCAPE well over 1000 J/kg, but subsidence will be
increasing as 500mb heights will be on the rise. So, if a storm
manages to beat the odds, it could become capable of producing hail
and gusty winds...but the chances of that happening are fairly slim.
Our best chance for seeing storms will be on Friday beginning early
in the morning.

An embedded shortwave trough will push through beginning early
Friday and help provide the lift for a line of showers/storms moving
in from the northwest. As of right now, the highest confidence for
PoPs is around the Brazos Valley as the general consensus of the 12Z
CAMs is for the line to gradually dissipate as it moves further
southeastward. These storms will be ahead of an approaching weak
frontal boundary that will push through beginning Friday
morning...but will struggle to make it past the I-10 corridor till
later in the afternoon. As we get daytime heating going and another
potential sea breeze interaction, we could see additional convective
development in the afternoon mainly south of I-10. Speaking of
daytime heating, expect another day of high temperatures in the
upper 80s to low 90s. Some areas in the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods
could top out in just the low to mid 80s. With slightly drier air
behind the front, low temperatures will be able to drop into upper
60s to low 70s on Friday night. Still another warm night on tap for
tonight though with lows in the low to upper 70s...alongside another
round of patchy fog. Lovely!

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025

The long term portion of the forecast continues to be not the most
exciting bit of meteorology around. While there will be nuances
through next week (most of which don`t look to be easily forecast
at this range), the general vibe of next week will be
"seasonable". This entails warm temperatures, humid - but not
unusually so - conditions, and with ridging generally the more
dominant upper air feature, mostly fair weather but carrying the
potential for some isolated seabreeze showers/storms.

Okay, so, some of those nuances we can discuss a little bit, even
at long range. Sunday morning should still be relatively cool
farther inland. Onshore winds should be back sometime late
Saturday evening or in the overnight, but since these winds should
be pretty light, dewpoints will only be starting to rebound for
coastal areas. They, however, will probably already begin to see
the return of warmer nights.

Something that is showing up in the longer range ensemble
guidance, and also a bit in the NBM, is the potential for a
Tuesday that is a bit breezier than the other days of the week. I
suspect this is due to another weak cold front making its way into
the Red River Valley. I doubt this front even makes it to our
area, much less pushes through, but it seems it`s strong enough
and close enough that we`ll see the pressure gradient tighten
across our area, resulting in some more wind that day.

It is consistent enough in the Euro ensemble, that we actually
get a weak, 0.5 value in the Extreme Forecast Index for winds that
day! And this is where I keep in mind that by "extreme", that
refers to the high ends of the EPS climatology. And we are now
getting to a time of year where winds in the middle to upper teens
might manage to meet that threshold. So when the EFI says
"extreme", they mean "higher than most days this time of year" and
not "something to remind you of a tropical cyclone". Even here
where we`re on guard annually for tropical storms or hurricanes,
that kind of wind is a very rare event and doesn`t really show up
in these statistical analyses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025

The fate of the line of storms far to our west continue to bedevil
the TAFs. Continue to see potential for one or two rounds of
SHRA/TSRA - one more a morning to mid-day round, if (and this may
be a very BIG if) existing storms survive to our area. Guidance
has gotten very sour on this occurring, but models also known to
handle these situations poorly, so conservatively hold with a
PROB30. By 12Z cycle, should be high confidence as to how this
breaks as any storms that do exist should be on CLL`s doorstep.
Expect this PROB30 to go definitively to a prevailing/TEMPO or to
nothing. Higher confidence in seeing some MVFR CIGs, even if
storms don`t hold through.

Afternoon potential for SHRA/TSRA extremely dependent on how first
potential round evolves, so stick with PROB30s again here. A
stronger morning to mid-day round will temper, though likely not
eliminate afternoon showers/storms. However, if morning storms do
not materialize, confidence should increase markedly in afternoon
SHRA/TSRA, and these PROB30s may well get to step up in the 12Z
cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025

Light onshore flow should prevail until the arrival of the next
cold front on Friday, along with continued opportunities for
showers and a few storms punctuating stretches of fair weather. A
period of east to northeast winds is expected in the front`s wake
on Saturday, but become onshore again by Sunday. This onshore
flow will persist deep into the new week, and though it will help
support some isolated seabreeze showers/storms, any of this
activity will be quite muted. Swell and onshore flow are expected
to gradually increase during the first half of next week. Along
with this, tides and rip current potential at Gulf-facing beaches
also look to gradually drift upwards towards the middle of next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  67  86  67  91 /  10  10   0  10
Houston (IAH)  72  88  70  92 /  10  10   0  20
Galveston (GLS)  76  84  77  87 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Luchs