Houston, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

520
FXUS64 KHGX 221136
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
536 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 341 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

- Periods of rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms are expected over
  the weekend.

- Could not rule out a few sleet pellets and/or a little freezing
  drizzle early this morning in our Brazos Valley / northern counties.
  No significant impacts expected.

- Temperatures remain chilly through the weekend.

- Warmer weather expected next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 341 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

The weather this weekend will be dominated by a coastal low that will bring
periods of rain, gusty coastal winds, and potentially a few thunderstorms.
Cloud cover and continued CAA in the low levels will keep the near sfc cold
and stable. Periods of low clouds, drizzle, and reduced visibility are likely.
However, there may be enough lift aloft to allow for some elevated convection.
So a few thunderstorms this weekend are possible. Temperatures this morning
are near freezing across our northern / Brazos Valley counties. Could not
rule out a brief period of freezing drizzle and sleet pellets in these areas
during the early morning hours today. However, significant impacts from wintry
precip are unlikely. Rainfall will be heaviest near the coast, where totals over
an inch are likely. Rainfall rates should be manageable.

One uncertainty in the forecast is Sunday afternoon`s temperatures. Global guidance
suggest much of the CWA reaches the mid/upper 50s. That`s still colder than normal
but would be noticeably warmer than recent days. We are going with low/mid 50s for now.
But it`s not out of the question that we could eek out one more day that remains in the
40s before we enjoy a warm up. For more details on warmer temps, check out the long
term discussion below!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 341 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Hello, welcome to the long term, I hope you enjoyed our short
reminder that February is a winter month! Regardless of whether
you enjoyed it or not, it`s pretty much done from the very start
of the long term portion of the forecast. Once the sun rises
enough Monday morning to get temperatures above 40 degrees, that
will be the last time we see 30-anything for the rest of the
forecast period.

Zonal flow sets up aloft pretty quickly, which probably
precludes the return of the torchiness we saw early this month,
but low level and surface ridging should set up, giving us
persistent onshore flow. At the very least, that`s going to give
us a very solid, high temperature floor overnight, and set us up
for a gradual return to afternoon highs in the 70s. Maybe not
quite Monday afternoon, but definitely Tuesday and Wednesday.

Things should get chopped down modestly with a cold front very
late Wednesday night or very early Thursday morning. But, the
general picture in the model guidance is for an upper ridge to
pretty quickly build into the Four Corners region, and should
shunt the coldest of the cold pool into the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley, while we just get a bit of the fringe. Enough to modestly
cool things down, but likely only to something around seasonal
averages.

Some showers along this front are...not impossible. If you squint
really hard, you`ll see me bring PoPs from near zero to the 10-15
percent range, which still isn`t enough to trigger a slight
chance of rain in the resultant weather forecast. It`s just gonna
be real tough to get anything without much of an opportunity to
build moisture up. Both the NAEFS and Euro ensemble mean
precipitable water values only get to around three-quarters of an
inch when the front comes through. Probably enough that I can`t
rule out a light shower somewhere in the area entirely, but I`m
not gonna go advertising rain, either.

In fact, the better chance is probably just after the end of this
forecast period, when onshore flow resumes and we get Gulf air
riding up over any lingering frontal surface aloft. Even
then...I`m kinda stretching for a reason for rain here.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 501 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

SHRA activity is expected to become more widespread today while
vis/cigs gradually decrease. MVFR cigs are already pushing
northward from the coastal counties. Widespread MVFR with areas of
IFR expected by afternoon, with widespread IFR with areas of LIFR
by the evening. NE winds are expected. Winds will be gusty near
the coast. Locally heavy SHRA and even a few TSRA are possible by
tomorrow morning from Houston down to the coast. Confidence in
TSRA is low. We opted to put add a PROB30 for -TSRA from IAH south
to the coast.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 341 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Elevated winds and elevated seas will prevail into Sunday
afternoon as a coastal low tracks across the offshore Upper Texas
coastal waters. A Small Craft Advisory is now in place through
early Sunday morning on Matagorda Bay, and through Sunday
afternoon on the Gulf waters. Winds will be more east-
northeasterly to northeasterly through tonight as the low
approaches, then shift to northerly on Sunday when the low begins
to exit the area. Also look for rain to overspread the region
through the day, continue tonight, and gradually taper off from
west to east on Sunday.

A light onshore flow resumes late Monday. We`ll continue to
monitor the potential for some periods of sea fog late Tuesday
into Wednesday night until the next front pushes off the coast.
The main concern will be how cold the waters of the bays and
nearshore Gulf waters remain into mid-week, along with how warm
and humid the air above those waters are able to get.
Additionally, winds do look to veer a little more southerly than
typically occurs with significant fog events. Ultimately, the
coastal dewpoints, water temperatures, and wind direction will be
important forecast features to monitor into the new week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 341 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Thanks to extensive cloud cover, no record lows were broken
yesterday. However, those same clouds kept the day cold, and two
record low max temperatures were observed yesterday in the area.
Houston/Hobby only reached a high of 41 degrees, and College
Station only reached 40 degrees. These both eclipsed the previous
records by one degree (42 at Hobby and 41 at College Station),
which were both last set in 1955.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  42  38  55  39 /  40  50  30   0
Houston (IAH)  45  42  53  43 /  70  90  70   0
Galveston (GLS)  52  47  54  49 /  80  90  90  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Sunday for GMZ330.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from late tonight through
     Sunday afternoon for GMZ330.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Sunday afternoon for
     GMZ335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Sunday for GMZ350-355-370-
     375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Self