Frisco, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

781
FXUS64 KFWD 111046
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
546 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of heavy rainfall will be possible now through Friday.
  Areas generally along and south of I-20 into Central Texas will
  have the highest threat for flash flooding.

- Isolated strong to severe storms are possible, primarily in
  Central Texas, today and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Widespread showers and thunderstorms have developed as expected
and continue moving north. We`ve already seen a few instances of
training thunderstorms this morning that have resulted in a quick
1-2"+ of rain in isolated areas. Multiple additional rounds of
heavy rainfall will result in an increasing threat for flash
flooding today through Thursday. A Flood Watch is now in effect
for Central Texas and portions of North Texas through Thursday
evening. No other significant changes were made with this
morning`s update.

Barnes

Previous Discussion:
/Through Thursday/

Our brief rain-free lull has come to an end as a complex of
storms is slowly moving into our western zones. This activity
is expected to remain sub-severe as it drifts northeast through
the remainder of the night, though isolated instances of strong
wind gusts and small hail can`t be entirely ruled out. Another
blossoming of showers and thunderstorms in addition to the ongoing
convective complex is beginning to transpire across Central
Texas. Coverage will gradually increase as this band of showers
and storms moves north/northeast through the remainder of the
night into Wednesday morning. Severe weather is unlikely, but
isolated small hail and strong wind gusts will be possible.

Multiple additional rounds of showers and storms will develop and
move east/northeast across the region today, Wednesday night, and
Thursday as we remain in close proximity to an upper low. Some of
these storms will have the potential to produce isolated damaging
wind gusts and hail, though the overall severe weather threat
will be quite low and confined primarily to Central Texas during
the afternoon.

The greatest concern through Thursday is the increasing potential
for flash flooding. Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall and the
potential for cell training will likely result in several inches
of rain in portions of the forecast area through Thursday.
Widespread 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals are expected on average
through Thursday. However, there is a fairly consistent signal
that isolated areas (10% coverage) could receive as high as 5 to 7
inches of rain. The greatest potential for these high-end totals
will be south of I-20. However, this will ultimately depend on
where the rounds of heavy rain set up over the next couple of
days, which is still a bit uncertain at this time. A Flood Watch
will likely be issued later tonight after further coordination
with neighboring offices.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 333 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025/
/Thursday Night Onward/

An upper low over eastern Oklahoma at the start of the period will
lift northeast across Missouri Thursday night into Friday,
shunting the better moisture and lift into Arkansas/Louisiana and
East Texas. This will shift the better rain chances east of North
and Central Texas in time for the weekend. Before this happens,
however, it is possible that we get one last training band of
convection (as advertised by recent higher resolution guidance),
which would maintain a threat of localized flash flooding through
Friday. We will continue to monitor this potential, which will
also depend on the mesoscale environment later this week, and
adjust the Flash Flood Watch temporally and/or geographically if
needed.

A mid level ridge will then attempt to bolster itself across the
central part of the CONUS, starting a warming trend this weekend.
With that said, the exiting low will leave a distinct weakness
aloft in the ridge, allowing for isolated thunderstorm development
each afternoon this weekend into the first part of next week. The
better rain and storm chances will be east of I-35 where the
lowest mid level heights and highest moisture content will exist,
but a lack of a forcing mechanism warrants capping POPs in the
chance to slight chance range. Weak flow aloft will keep any
convection which develops disorganized and sub-severe.

The ridge aloft will weaken by Tuesday as a shortwave approaches
from the west. The shortwave will dampen as it approaches due to
interacting with the ridge, but should still keep at least a
slight chance of storms going through the middle of next week.


30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected today,
tonight, and Thursday. While some brief breaks in the storms are
possible, it is still uncertain exactly when these will occur.
Therefore, VCTS has been carried in the Metroplex TAFs through
the afternoon. For KACT, a brief rain-free period is possible once
this round of rain and storms moves out of the area. However,
additional storm development is expected this afternoon.
Additional rounds of storms are possible across all of North and
Central Texas overnight through Thursday. Isolated hail and
damaging winds may occur with any stronger storms, mainly in
Central Texas. However, the main concern will be heavy rainfall
with any of this activity.

Ceiling trends are a bit tricky. MVFR will prevail this morning,
but should improve to VFR for a few hours this afternoon (earlier
for KACT). MVFR ceilings will redevelop again this evening, with
IFR becoming increasingly likely after 04-06Z tonight. VFR likely
won`t return until Thursday afternoon. Winds will remain out of
the southeast through the period near 5 to 10 knots.

Barnes

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    82  70  81  72  89 /  90  80  70  40  30
Waco                82  68  81  72  87 /  80  80  80  20  30
Paris               81  68  79  69  84 /  70  70  90  50  50
Denton              81  67  81  70  89 /  80  70  70  30  30
McKinney            81  69  79  70  87 /  90  80  80  40  30
Dallas              82  69  81  72  89 /  90  80  70  40  30
Terrell             81  69  80  70  87 /  90  80  80  40  40
Corsicana           83  70  81  73  88 /  80  80  80  30  40
Temple              83  69  83  72  89 /  80  70  70  20  30
Mineral Wells       80  67  83  70  90 /  90  70  50  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday evening for TXZ105>107-117>123-
130>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$