Frisco, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

760
FXUS64 KFWD 060552
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1252 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong thunderstorms will continue over parts of North
  Texas through sunrise Saturday. Lightning and downburst winds
  will be the main threats.

- Cooler weather and rain chances continue through Monday behind a
  cold front.

- Hotter and drier weather will return mid to late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today and Tonight/

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing at this time
across North and Central Texas as a disturbance moves overhead.
With the jet stream situated atop our region, continued impulses
will traverse across our sky, keeping rain chance ongoing through
the morning hours.

Overall, expect instability to gradually wane through sunrise,
however, there should still be enough CAPE for occasional claps
of thunder through the early morning hours. The threat for severe
weather will continue to diminish, leaving behind a lightning and
gusty wind threat through the mid-morning hours.

As dry air begins to filter in from the north, expect a gradual
southward shift in the showers and isolated storms during the day.
Although the threat for severe storms this afternoon will be low,
a few strong storms cannot be ruled out across Central Texas. The
main threat would be strong downburst winds.

Rain chances across our region will come to an end as we approach
sunset given a lack of forcing for ascent and increasing dry air
out of the northeast. Expect a relatively dry Saturday evening
with comfortable temperatures and light northeasterly winds.
Temperatures today will only make it to the mid to upper 70s
across North Texas with 80s in Central Texas.

Tonight, an incoming shortwave will tap into available moisture
across Central Texas. The latest guidance suggest rain showers
could develop as early as 4am Sunday across Central Texas. With
continued dry air in North Texas, rain chances will remain below
10% through sunrise Sunday.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Sunday Onward/

The ridge across Central Mexico responsible for advecting
disturbances atop our region will begin to retrograde westward.
This will turn our mid-level flow from zonal to northwesterly as
we begin a new week. The near-surface environment will be
influenced by a strong area of high pressure, located near the
Great Lakes region. This area of high pressure will reduce the
amount of available moisture across much of the region on Sunday.
The one exception will be across our Central Texas counties, where
the airmass will have slightly better moisture as a disturbance
moves overhead. This will lead to a few showers and isolated
storms on Sunday, mainly across Central Texas. By the latter half
of the week, the area of high pressure over the Great Lakes will
shift northeast, allowing for southerly winds to return to our
region. In addition, mid and upper level ridging will develop over
the Central and Southern Plains in response to an amplifying West
Coast trough. This will translate to a gradual increase in
afternoon temperatures with minimal to no rain chances through the
end of the week.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

A wave of thunderstorms has moved east of the TAF sites in North
Texas, however, Waco continues to experience intermittent rain
showers with isolated lightning. Expect an overall improving trend
for North Texas TAF sites through the early morning hours.
Additional thunderstorm development appears likely outside of the
TAF sites, however, still inside the D10 airspace. This activity
will persist through sunrise before exiting D10 closer to 14z.
Winds will remain out of the north through the day with a gradual
shift out of the northeast closer to 05z Sunday.

For Waco, rain chances will linger a bit longer given the
availability of better moisture. Most guidance is now hinting at a
cluster of showers with isolated lightning approaching from the
north at around 12z Saturday. The expectation is for convective
activity to migrate south of the KACT area by 15z, leaving behind
precipitation free conditions through the rest of this TAF cycle.

Hernandez

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    69  84  67  85  66 /  40  30  10  20  10
Waco                70  84  67  86  65 /  20  30  20  50  20
Paris               64  82  62  83  60 /  80  40  10  10   5
Denton              65  84  64  86  63 /  60  30  10  20  10
McKinney            66  84  64  85  63 /  50  30  10  20  10
Dallas              69  85  68  87  67 /  50  30  20  20  10
Terrell             67  83  64  84  63 /  50  40  20  20  10
Corsicana           70  84  67  86  65 /  30  30  20  40  10
Temple              68  84  67  87  64 /  10  20  20  50  20
Mineral Wells       65  83  65  86  64 /  40  30  10  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$