Frisco, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

282
FXUS64 KFWD 120541
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1241 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of heavy rainfall will continue tonight through Friday.
  Areas across Central Texas near/west of the I-35 corridor have
  the highest flash flooding threat tonight. The highest flood
  threat will shift near/east of the I-35 corridor Thursday
  morning.

- Isolated strong storms are possible tonight and Thursday. Small
  hail and gusty winds are the main threats. An isolated tornado
  can`t be ruled out in far Central/Southeast Texas through
  Thursday morning.

- Rain chances will decrease over the weekend and early next week,
  but a warming trend will begin with highs in the 90s returning.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday/

Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase in coverage along
and west of the I-35 corridor late this evening, with this trend
expected to continue for the remainder of the night. Slow storm
motions and cell training will attribute to a threat for flash
flooding tonight. The latest WoFS runs continue to advertise a
few 5-7+" bullseyes across portions of Central Texas through
approximately 4 am this morning generally south of I-20 and
near/west of I-35/Highway 6. The ongoing convective activity will
likely merge into an MCS through the remainder of the night, which
will continue to slowly move east across the forecast area during
the day today. Shortly after sunrise this morning, the main flash
flood threat will shift east of the I-35 corridor. In these
areas, an additional 2-4" of rain can be expected on average
today, with isolated areas (10% coverage) seeing rainfall totals
between 5-7". The severe weather threat will remain low overnight
and Thursday, but isolated strong to marginally severe storms
can`t be ruled out. Small hail and gusty winds would be the main
threats. The tornado threat will also remain low but not entirely
zero. The main area to watch for an isolated tornado will be
across Central/Southeast Texas later tonight and into Tuesday
morning.

The upper low responsible for this period of active weather and
heavy rain will become increasingly displaced from North and
Central Texas Thursday night into Friday, shunting the best rain
chances into the Deep South. However, mid-level ridging will
remain well to our west, with a couple of weak shortwaves expected
to pass overhead. With moisture and instability both still in
abundance, we`ll maintain some low storm chances through Friday,
primarily east of the I-35 corridor. This activity could pose a
threat for isolated severe hail and damaging winds, especially
Friday afternoon. A lack of any noteworthy forcing mechanisms
will keep storm coverage fairly isolated. Otherwise, below normal
temperatures will continue today with highs in the upper 70s to
mid 80s. A warming trend will begin on Friday as highs return to
the 90s across portions of the area, but temperatures will still
be near or slightly below normal for most locations.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 213 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025/
Update:
Not much has changed in the long-term period as we wrap-up the
week with a chance of showers and storms. The best chances (30%)
will be for East Texas as the upper level low finally moves
northeastward out of our area over the weekend. A warming trend
will also take places into early next week as temperatures return
to the 90s.

Sanchez

Previous Discussion:
/Thursday Night Onward/

An upper low over eastern Oklahoma at the start of the period will
lift northeast across Missouri Thursday night into Friday,
shunting the better moisture and lift into Arkansas/Louisiana and
East Texas. This will shift the better rain chances east of North
and Central Texas in time for the weekend. Before this happens,
however, it is possible that we get one last training band of
convection (as advertised by recent higher resolution guidance),
which would maintain a threat of localized flash flooding through
Friday. We will continue to monitor this potential, which will
also depend on the mesoscale environment later this week, and
adjust the Flash Flood Watch temporally and/or geographically if
needed.

A mid level ridge will then attempt to bolster itself across the
central part of the CONUS, starting a warming trend this weekend.
With that said, the exiting low will leave a distinct weakness
aloft in the ridge, allowing for isolated thunderstorm development
each afternoon this weekend into the first part of next week. The
better rain and storm chances will be east of I-35 where the
lowest mid level heights and highest moisture content will exist,
but a lack of a forcing mechanism warrants capping POPs in the
chance to slight chance range. Weak flow aloft will keep any
convection which develops disorganized and sub-severe.

The ridge aloft will weaken by Tuesday as a shortwave approaches
from the west. The shortwave will dampen as it approaches due to
interacting with the ridge, but should still keep at least a
slight chance of storms going through the middle of next week.


30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

Widespread showers and storms are ongoing near/south of I-20 and
west of I-35. This activity will slowly move east through the
remainder of the night and into Thursday. Most of this activity
will remain across Central Texas, with only showers currently
expected across the DFW Metroplex/North Texas for the next
several hours. There is a low potential for scattered storms to
develop along the I-35 corridor this afternoon, but there is low
confidence whether this will occur and where. Otherwise, MVFR
ceilings are expected to deteriorate to IFR within the next couple
of hours. Conditions should slightly improve mid to late morning,
with VFR likely returning early to mid afternoon. MVFR ceilings
may develop once again Thursday night into Friday morning, but
there is still quite a bit of uncertainty in timing and location.
Winds will remain out of the south to southeast near 5-10 knots
through the period.

Barnes

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    69  83  72  90  75 /  70  40   5  10  20
Waco                69  82  71  88  73 /  80  50   5  20  10
Paris               68  76  69  86  71 /  90  80  30  40  30
Denton              67  83  69  91  73 /  60  40   5  10  20
McKinney            69  80  70  89  73 /  80  60  10  20  20
Dallas              69  82  71  91  75 /  80  50   5  10  20
Terrell             69  80  70  88  73 /  90  70  10  20  20
Corsicana           71  82  73  89  75 /  90  70  10  20  10
Temple              69  84  71  90  74 /  80  50   5  20  10
Mineral Wells       67  85  69  93  72 /  60  10   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday evening for TXZ093>095-103>107-
117>123-130>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$