El Paso, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

892
FXUS64 KEPZ 250434
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1034 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1030 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect much of the
   area on Memorial Day. A few storms could be severe. Storms
   will be capable of strong wind gusts, localized downpours, and
   of course lightning. Patchy blowing dust is also possible.

 - Dry southwest flow aloft will keep skies mostly clear
   Wednesday through Saturday, with seasonable temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1030 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

Lots of outdoor activities planned tomorrow, I`m not saying cancel
any of them, but definitely have a backup indoor plan just to be
safe. An approaching upper level trough will bring a chance for
showers to locations west of the Rio Grande by early Monday
morning and then as the better lift and dynamics approach the
region we will see scattered thunderstorms develop for much of
the area by late morning into the early evening hours. It won`t be
raining the whole time, but we could see a couple of rounds of
thunderstorms. The main threat will be strong outflow winds
associated with the thunderstorms. Localized damaging winds are
not out of the question Monday afternoon. By late Monday night
most of the energy and thunderstorm threat will have moved to the
east.

On Tuesday, the upper level trough will continue to linger near
the area, but drier air will quickly be rolling into the region
from the west. We will see a slight chance for rain, but it will
be mainly for locations north and east of Las Cruces. For
Wednesday through Sunday we will have a zonal (west to east) flow
which will slowly transition to a southwest flow. This pattern
will keep us dry and help keep afternoon high temperatures near
seasonal averages. Something to keep an eye on for the weekend;
deeper moisture will lurk just to the east of the region. Right
now the extended models keep the moisture to our east, but if some
moisture slips across the mountains we could see some rain chances
return to next weekends forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

We will have a quiet night east of the Rio Grande tonight, but
there will be some isolated showers west of the Rio Grande through
the overnight hours. Better rain chances and even thunderstorm
chances arrive mid day into the early evening hours on Monday.
The main threat will be strong and gusty outflow winds which can
travel great distances from their parent thunderstorms. For
tonight, ceilings will be unlimited east of the river, but mid and
high ceilings will rule things west of the river. Those mid and
even lower ceilings will spread across the area in the afternoon;
SCT-BKN080-120. Later into Monday evening we will have high
ceilings of BKN250. Away from thunderstorms we will see another
afternoon of low end gusty winds generally from the southeast. Be
on the look out for those gusty outflow winds which in addition to
the strong wind gusts could produce patchy areas of blowing dust.
The thunderstorms and rain chances will wrap up by late evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

Easterly flow will increase low level moisture tonight, mainly
east of the Rio Grande. A shortwave trough will move SW to NE
across the area Monday, bringing showers and thunderstorms, mainly
to the Gila Region and areas near and east of the Rio Grande.
Wetting rain is likely, but also lightning strikes and gusty and
erratic winds.

Aside from some residual showers in the Sacramento Mountains
Tuesday, a dry southwest flow regime will set back up across the
region through the remainder of the work week with the return of
daily elevated fire weather conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  71  90  61  86 /   0  90  40  10
Sierra Blanca            61  87  55  81 /   0  50  70  20
Las Cruces               61  84  53  83 /   0  80  40  10
Alamogordo               64  87  55  80 /   0  80  60  40
Cloudcroft               47  66  41  58 /   0  80  80  60
Truth or Consequences    62  81  56  81 /   0  70  60  30
Silver City              57  77  50  77 /   0  80  20  10
Deming                   61  88  54  88 /   0  60  20   0
Lordsburg                61  85  55  84 /  10  60  10   0
West El Paso Metro       69  87  61  85 /   0  90  40  10
Dell City                59  90  55  81 /   0  60  80  40
Fort Hancock             67  94  60  89 /   0  80  70  10
Loma Linda               63  83  55  78 /   0  80  60  20
Fabens                   66  91  58  88 /   0  80  60   0
Santa Teresa             63  86  55  84 /   0  80  30  10
White Sands HQ           71  86  61  82 /   0  80  50  20
Jornada Range            62  85  53  82 /   0  80  50  20
Hatch                    62  86  54  86 /   0  70  50  10
Columbus                 67  88  59  88 /   0  50  10   0
Orogrande                63  86  55  80 /   0  80  50  30
Mayhill                  52  78  46  68 /   0  70  80  80
Mescalero                51  76  45  68 /   0  80  80  60
Timberon                 49  74  43  66 /   0  70  70  60
Winston                  51  73  44  73 /   0  80  60  50
Hillsboro                62  80  53  80 /   0  70  40  30
Spaceport                59  82  51  81 /   0  80  60  20
Lake Roberts             52  77  45  77 /   0  90  20  10
Hurley                   57  80  49  80 /   0  70  20  10
Cliff                    57  83  51  84 /  10  80  20   0
Mule Creek               54  79  49  80 /  30  70  10   0
Faywood                  59  79  50  79 /   0  70  20  10
Animas                   60  86  54  85 /  20  40   0   0
Hachita                  61  86  54  85 /  10  50  10   0
Antelope Wells           60  87  55  85 /  10  20   0   0
Cloverdale               58  81  53  79 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice