El Paso, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

064
FXUS64 KEPZ 201651
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1051 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1045 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025

 - Daily thunderstorm chances continue through Wednesday with the
   highest chances on Monday and Tuesday.

 - Temperatures will be slightly above normal on Sunday, but will
   trend closer to normal or just below normal on Monday and
   Tuesday.

 - A drying trend looks to be lurking late in the week and into
   the weekend, and this will be accompanied by warming
   temperatures again, with low 100s possible in the lowlands.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1045 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Large UL high continues to cover much of the southeastern CONUS this
morning, including New Mexico. Monsoonal moisture continues to rotate
around the high. This morning`s sounding had 1.21" PWAT with some
warming/ subsidence noted near 500 mb and 400 mb, thanks to the
subtropical ridge. We can expected isolated to scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon with locally heavy rainfall, including
flash flooding the main concern.

By tomorrow afternoon, our area comes under the influence of a weak
UL low embedded within the broad subtropical ridge. The heart of the
low/cold pool will keep to our east, but increased PWAT, DPVA, and
height falls along with mid-level cooling will still overspread the
entire CWA courtesy of the low. This will lead to an increase in
shower and thunderstorm activity. The UL low and attendant trough
axis, extending well to its west, will be slow to clear the area,
roughly crossing the International Border Tuesday afternoon or
evening. This means shower and thunderstorm activity may last well
into the early morning hours on Monday with renewed activity on
Tuesday. The only thing that may dampen Tuesday`s chances/coverage
is loss of instability with the atmosphere well worked over.
Given the higher PWAT values and storm coverage, flash flooding is
the main concern. A review of the NBM 95th percentile shows
largely 0.50-1.00" totals, so not sure threat is high/widespread
enough for a watch. The exception is the Sacramento Mountains,
where the 00z HREF hits them particularly hard. 95th percentile
shows several areas with over 2". With the recent burn scars as
well recent flooding issues in Mescalero, I decided to join ABQ
in a flood watch for Monday afternoon into the evening.

The UL wave/low clears out late Tuesday commencing a drying trend.
Moisture will remain in place for Wednesday but loss of UL
forcing, subsidence from height rises, and possible stabilization
from previous day convection will result in a drop in storm
coverage/chances. Thursday sees a further decrease in storm
chances/coverage as UL ridging continues to build overhead while
PWAT values drop, specially for the western half of the CWA. By
Friday, lasting into the weekend, only the mountains have a low
shot for thunderstorms with the lowlands expected to be dry. With
the increased ridging and drying of the atmosphere, temperatures
will also be above normal though nothing exceptional.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1045 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025

VFR conditions are expected with FEW-SCT090-130 / 250. Winds will
generally be light throughout the period with top speeds around 10
knots along with a few gusts to 20 knots, mainly from the west or
southwest. ISO to perhaps SCT SHRA/TSRA is expected this afternoon
with better chances/coverage west of the Rio Grande. However, with
probability of occurrence 30% or lower, mention of thunder was
excluded from the TAFs. TSRA impacts would include heavy rainfall
and wind shifts/increases.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1045 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Monsoonal moisture remains in place, limiting fire weather
concerns. Thunderstorm chances will favor western areas this
afternoon before spreading across all areas Monday into Tuesday.
We begin a drying trend on Wednesday and especially Thursday.
Areas west of the Rio Grande are expected to see min RH values
below 15% by this weekend. Nevertheless, winds will be on the
lighter side. Venting will generally range good to very good daily
except for Tuesday when it will largely range fair to good.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  76  96  73  92 /  30  30  60  40
Sierra Blanca            68  89  65  85 /  40  70  70  60
Las Cruces               70  94  67  90 /  30  30  60  40
Alamogordo               70  94  67  89 /  10  40  40  50
Cloudcroft               52  71  50  67 /  20  70  40  80
Truth or Consequences    70  94  68  90 /  30  40  50  60
Silver City              62  86  61  82 /  50  50  50  70
Deming                   70  95  68  91 /  40  30  50  40
Lordsburg                67  91  66  88 /  50  40  60  60
West El Paso Metro       74  94  71  90 /  30  30  60  40
Dell City                71  95  69  90 /  20  40  40  30
Fort Hancock             75  96  72  91 /  50  70  70  60
Loma Linda               68  88  65  83 /  20  40  60  50
Fabens                   73  95  70  90 /  30  40  60  40
Santa Teresa             73  94  70  89 /  30  30  60  40
White Sands HQ           74  95  71  90 /  20  40  60  50
Jornada Range            70  94  68  90 /  30  40  60  50
Hatch                    70  96  67  92 /  30  40  60  50
Columbus                 73  94  71  90 /  40  30  60  40
Orogrande                70  92  67  87 /  20  40  50  50
Mayhill                  58  82  57  78 /  10  70  40  70
Mescalero                58  83  56  78 /  20  70  40  80
Timberon                 55  79  53  74 /  20  60  50  70
Winston                  58  86  57  82 /  40  60  50  70
Hillsboro                65  93  63  88 /  40  50  50  60
Spaceport                67  94  65  89 /  30  40  50  50
Lake Roberts             57  87  56  83 /  50  60  60  80
Hurley                   63  89  62  85 /  40  50  50  70
Cliff                    65  93  64  88 /  40  50  50  70
Mule Creek               62  89  62  84 /  30  40  40  70
Faywood                  64  89  63  84 /  40  50  50  70
Animas                   67  90  67  88 /  50  60  70  60
Hachita                  67  91  66  87 /  50  50  60  60
Antelope Wells           65  88  66  85 /  60  60  70  60
Cloverdale               63  83  62  81 /  60  70  70  70

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for
     East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento
     Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains
     Below 7500 Feet.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown