El Paso, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

239
FXUS64 KEPZ 070440
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
940 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 849 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

 - A weak cold front arrives from the east Saturday morning, with
   gusty east winds but minimal changes to temperature.

 - Rain chances return early next week, with scattered rain
   showers Monday evening and Tuesday.

-  Drier and warmer weather will return for the middle and end of
   next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 930 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

Our weather this weekend, will be quiet and seasonal as the next
upper level storm system gets organized off the west coast of Baja
California. The only weather of note this weekend will be a weak
back door (east to west) cold front that will push across the
region Saturday morning. I hesitate to call it a weak cold front
since there is almost no change in temperatures from Friday to
Saturday. What will be noticeable about the cold front will be
the brisk east winds that come in with the front. We will see
gusty winds from the east Saturday afternoon, with the strongest
gust along the west slopes of area mountains. Saturday`s highs
will run near seasonal averages, and Sunday`s highs will be a few
degrees above average.

On Monday the upper level trough off the west coast of Baja
California will begin to move in our direction. Initially we will
be too dry for any rain chances, but as we move into Monday night
we will see a chance for rain showers, mainly west of the Rio
Grande. Tuesday will be our active weather day. As the low moves
pretty much right over our region, we will see a chance for some
rain showers and maybe even some high elevation light snow. Along
with the precipitation chances we will see some breezy to windy
(but not too windy) conditions Tuesday afternoon. High
temperatures on Monday will run 10 degrees above average, but
highs on Tuesday, with the clouds and rain chances, will run a
little below average.

For Wednesday and Thursday, a flat upper level ridge will try and
push into the desert southwest. The ridge will return us to our
normally dry conditions for this time of year and it will keep us
clear of any high wind afternoons. High temperatures will run 5
degrees above average on Wednesday and then 8 to 12 degrees above
average for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 930 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

We will have VFR conditions tonight and Saturday. Our low end
gusty winds have dropped off and we will have light and variable
or light north winds tonight. Our winds will come around to the
east on Saturday morning as a weak back door cold front moves
across the area. We could see another round of low end gusty
winds, but from the east Saturday afternoon. We will see off and
on high clouds (more off than on), so our ceilings tonight and
Saturday will be unlimited.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1000 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

Near Critical Fire Danger today with breezy west winds 15 to 25
mph and Min RH 10-15%. Red Flag Warning in effect for
Capitan/Sacramento Mountains until 7 PM where conditions are
meeting Critical thresholds for a few hours this afternoon.

Cold front arrives out of the northeast Saturday morning,
shifting winds 180 degrees from today. East winds 10 to 20 mph
tomorrow afternoon with gusty conditions over mountain ridges and
west slopes. Ventilation remains Good to Very Good. Higher
moisture with Min RH 15-25% will lead to Elevated Fire Danger. No
Red Flags expected tomorrow.

Low Fire Danger on Sunday due to light winds and higher moisture.
Scattered rain showers Monday/Tuesday will also keep fire danger
low and may provide some wetting rains over the local forests.
Winds becoming breezy out of the west again by Tuesday, but no
fire headlines expected at this time. Dry and warmer conditions
return Wednesday into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  42  71  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            40  66  40  71 /   0   0  20  20
Las Cruces               35  68  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               34  68  36  72 /   0   0   0  10
Cloudcroft               23  45  28  52 /   0   0   0  10
Truth or Consequences    35  65  39  72 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              30  60  38  66 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   35  70  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                31  66  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       45  70  47  74 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                37  68  36  73 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Hancock             42  75  43  78 /   0  10  20  10
Loma Linda               41  63  42  69 /   0   0   0  10
Fabens                   42  73  46  78 /   0   0  10  10
Santa Teresa             39  69  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           41  68  44  73 /   0   0   0  10
Jornada Range            31  68  35  73 /   0   0   0  10
Hatch                    32  70  35  75 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 38  71  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                37  66  38  72 /   0   0   0  10
Mayhill                  27  54  30  65 /   0   0   0  10
Mescalero                26  56  30  63 /   0   0   0  10
Timberon                 30  53  33  60 /   0   0   0  10
Winston                  22  56  27  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                34  63  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                30  66  33  72 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             25  58  31  67 /   0   0   0  10
Hurley                   29  62  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    27  66  34  75 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               27  63  34  71 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  35  62  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   33  68  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  32  67  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           34  69  39  73 /   0   0  10   0
Cloverdale               36  64  42  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice