Denton, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

571
FXUS64 KFWD 292337
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
637 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...


- A cold front will bring increased chances for showers and storms
  back to North Texas late this evening into early Friday morning.
  A few storms may contain damaging wind gusts and hail.

- Following a warmer and mostly rain-free weekend, daily chances
  for thunderstorms will return next week beginning on Monday
  evening.


&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday/

We are currently monitoring two areas for very isolated
thunderstorm potential through the remainder of this evening. The
first along an outflow boundary from this morning`s convection
that is currently placed near the I-30 corridor. Mid-level height
rises have kept any convection from initiating thus far, but
slightly higher convergence and more rigorous Cu can be noted
from northern Dallas County to Hopkins County. The second area is
west of Highway 281 over the Big Country and near Abilene`s
surrounding locations where the nose of a theta-E ridge currently
resides. A brief stronger core capable of producing small hail and
gusty downburst winds is not out of the question, but a general
lack of synoptic-scale forcing and modest wind shear will limit
the life time of these evening storms.

Greater thunderstorm chances will arrive first across our western
counties generally after 9-10PM tonight. Scattered severe
thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of West Texas and eastern
New Mexico along and south of a cold front. These storms will
likely grow upscale into a couple clusters or thunderstorm
complexes later this evening and progress east-southeastward
through the overnight. By the time storms reach our Big Country
counties, isolated damaging wind gusts will be the primary storm
hazard. The latest suite of high-res guidance places this activity
near the I-35 corridor just after midnight shifting into East and
Southeast Texas before daybreak Friday morning. The greatest
potential for damaging wind gusts greater than 60 mph will remain
constrained to our western Central Texas counties in the 11PM-4AM
timeframe where higher MLCAPE will reside south of the frontal
boundary.

Post-frontal stratus will fill in behind this complex late tonight
into Friday morning with all thunderstorm and shower activity
exiting our forecast area to the east by 7-8AM. Low clouds will
lift and scatter out by midday Friday leaving dry conditions and
partly sunny skies across the region for the remainder of the
afternoon. Expect pleasant highs in the upper 70s to low 80s
tomorrow.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 219 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025/
/Saturday Onward/

In the wake of the late week cold front, Saturday should be fairly
cool by late May standards with highs in the 80s while rain
chances remain confined to areas south of the CWA near the
gradually dissipating frontal zone. Flow aloft will become
increasingly northwesterly over the weekend as an upper ridge
amplifies to our west, with perhaps a fast-moving disturbance
traversing portions of the Central Plains into the Mississippi
Valley. This may initiate and support a southward-moving
convective complex late in the weekend which could affect some
of our northeast/east zones on Sunday, but this is such a
mesoscale-driven scenario that it remains highly uncertain being
beyond the day 3 forecast period. We`ll keep PoPs at 10% or less
for now.

Heading into next week, the upper ridge just to our west will
rapidly break down as broad western CONUS troughing becomes
established. This will allow multiple disturbances to ignite a few
rounds of convection during the remainder of the extended
forecast period as we remain placed within a unstable warm sector
ahead of a West Texas dryline. Each afternoon/evening, convection
will likely initiate just to our west or even within our CWA and
spread eastward. Coverage may be most widespread on
Tuesday/Wednesday as a frontal zone also impinges on North Texas,
aiding with ascent. All activity during this time period will
have the potential to be strong or severe with ample instability
and moderate shear. The persistent troughiness and convective
activity (along with increased cloud cover) will keep temperatures
near or slightly below normal through most of next week as we
move into meteorological summer.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

An outflow boundary is currently pushing through DFW and DAL
shifting winds out of the north-northeast. There is a very low
chance (less than 15%) that a storm or shower develops off this
boundary in the next few hours. This boundary will slowly make
its way through the Metroplex this evening with a weak cold front
reinforcing light north winds later tonight through the remainder
of the TAF period. This northerly wind shift will not reach KACT
until after ~11PM tonight.

Greater thunderstorm chances will arrive later tonight as a couple
clusters or storm complexes shift out of West Texas impacting the
I-35 corridor in the 05Z-09Z timeframe. There is a low potential
for damaging wind gusts at KACT. MVFR stratus will develop behind
the frontal boundary later tonight and linger through much of
Friday morning. There is a low chance for a couple hours of IFR
cigs around daybreak Friday morning, but they will be kept out of
the TAFs for now.

Langfeld

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Limited spotter activation may be requested this evening. Even if
activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous
weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    66  80  64  86  69 /  50  10   5   0   5
Waco                69  80  63  83  67 /  40  20   5   5   5
Paris               63  78  58  82  64 /  30  10   0   0   5
Denton              61  79  59  85  64 /  60  10   0   0   5
McKinney            64  79  60  84  65 /  50  10   0   0   5
Dallas              67  80  64  86  68 /  50  10   5   0   5
Terrell             65  80  60  84  65 /  40  10   0   0   5
Corsicana           69  82  63  85  67 /  30  20   5   0   0
Temple              69  82  63  85  66 /  30  20  10   5   0
Mineral Wells       63  79  61  86  65 /  60  10   5   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$