Dallas, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

299
FXUS64 KFWD 241123
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
523 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will continue to trend warmer today with highs
  around 15-20 degrees above average for late November.

- The first in a series of dry cold fronts will arrive Monday,
  bringing temperatures back to near seasonal normals.

- Another cold front arrives Wednesday night bringing cooler
  temperatures for Thanksgiving Day.

- North Texas`s first widespread freeze is becoming more likely
  Thursday night into Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Morning IR satellite imagery shows a plume of low clouds
spreading into North Texas as WAA continues in earnest this
morning. Trends in temperatures for the rest of the day and
through FROPA tomorrow remain in line with new guidance.
Adjustments made with this update were minimal. The previous
discussion is appended below for reference.

12

Previous Discussion:
/Through Monday Afternoon/

Northwest flow aloft will continue to become more zonal tonight
as the mid/upper-level subtropical ridge shifts further east. This
is in response to a shortwave trough emerging from the nearly
stationary upper-level low over the Pacific NW. A surface low
resulting from the enhanced cross flow overtop of the Rockies will
work to amplify the recent changes to our sensible weather today.

As returning low-level moisture surges toward the ArkLaTex
through the pre-dawn hours, there will likely be some morning
stratus drawn northeastward across the region. This increase in
moisture, combined with moderately breezy winds, will also result
in noticeably warmer temperatures than we`ve seen the last couple
of mornings with lows in the mid/upper 50s in most areas.

Later this morning, surface winds will begin to subtly veer to
the southwest in response to the strengthening lee troughing
located initially over Kansas. This is a known pattern for
unseasonably warm temperatures. NBM temperature probabilities show
a 30-70% chance of afternoon temperatures reaching 80F across the
southern two-thirds of our forecast area (including the
Metroplex) and a 10-25% chance in the northern third of the
region. These temperatures are a whopping 15-20 degrees above
1991-2020 averages but still several degrees shy of daily
temperature records.

Additionally, the tightening surface pressure gradient will lead
to increasingly breezy/gusty winds this afternoon with sustained
speeds to 15-20 mph (below the criteria for a Wind Advisory) and
gusts nearing 30 mph. By daybreak Monday, the cold front trailing
behind the surface low that will be pivoting from the Mississippi
Valley towards the Great Lakes should reach the Red River Valley.
The timing of this strong cold frontal passage will create a
rather pronounced temperature gradient on Monday. Post frontal
stratus and cold air advection will keep much of North Texas (near
and north of the I-20 corridor) in the 50s on Monday with the
daily high temperature realized very early in the day. Conversely,
Central Texas will still see temperatures climb into the 70s and
lower 80s before the front arrives in the late afternoon.

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 223 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024/
/Monday Night through Next Weekend/

Monday night will be noticeably cooler as a surface high pressure
moves over the region. Sufficient radiational cooling in addition
to the light northerly winds should allow temperatures to drop to
the mid 30s to lower 40s by Tuesday morning. Plenty of sunshine
and dry air will result in afternoon temperatures mainly in the
60s. Winds will also begin to shift to the south during the day
as the high moves east of us.

A brief warm up will occur on Wednesday ahead of the next
longwave trough. At this time, we are looking at forecast highs
in the mid/upper 70s for North Texas to lower 80s for Central
Texas. Breezy conditions are also expected on Wednesday given the
tight pressure gradient between the ridge to our east and the
approaching low pressure system to our west. This system will
send in a stronger cold front Wednesday night. No rain is
anticipated with this front with the majority of the
precipitation staying far to our east and north.

As for Thanksgiving Day... the main headline will be the much
cooler conditions. Daytime temperatures will stay in the 50s to
lower 60s with breezy northerly winds. The potential for many
locations to see freezing temperatures Friday morning continues
to increase with the latest suite of guidance. Outside of the
immediate Metroplex, most of North Texas and some locations in
Central Texas have a 50-70% chance of seeing 32F Friday morning.
Looking beyond, the dry and cooler weather will stay with us
through the weekend.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12z TAFs/

Morning IR imagery shows MVFR ceilings (15-27 kft AGL) developing
northeastward from the Hill Country. These lowered ceilings will
continue steadily expanding towards the Red River Valley over the
next several hours. Current satellite trends support cigs
expanding across the Metroplex airports within the next hour.
Morning guidance continues to show that the probability of
ceilings falling below 1 kft remains low (<10%).

Stratus should still scatter out around 16-18Z with VFR flight
conditions expected the rest of the period. A deepening area of
low pressure near Kansas will lead to increasingly gusty south
winds (170-190) across the region this afternoon. Sustained speeds
to 15-20 kts and gusts to 25-30 kts are expected. Wind speeds
should become less gusty around or shortly after 00Z/25. The wind
shift associated with the next cold front is currently projected
to reach the North TX TAF sites after 12Z/25. FROPA has been
introduced at DFW with this update and will be added to the
remaining TAFs in subsequent updates.

12

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  59  64  42  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                82  62  76  42  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               77  60  68  38  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              80  54  63  35  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            78  57  64  37  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              79  60  68  42  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             79  61  69  39  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           80  63  74  43  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              82  59  79  42  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       83  52  62  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$