Corpus Christi, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

386
FXUS64 KCRP 070627
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1227 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1137 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

- Medium to high rain chances (50-90%) this weekend. A Marginal
  Risk (level 1 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall is in place for most
  of South Texas today, with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for the
  northern Brush Country into the Victoria Crossroads.

- A Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather is in place for
  Saturday over the northern portion of the area, with a Marginal
  Risk (level 1 of 2) for the remainder of South Texas. The main
  hazards will be large hail to very large hail possible and
  damaging winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1137 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

A few showers will develop this morning with deep moisture in
place. A cold front will continue to move toward South Texas
today, pushing under the warm, unstable, moist airmass today.
This will lead to convection this afternoon and tonight. Very
steep lapse rates will lead to the potential for large to very
large hail over the Brush Country. Currently, the Storm Prediction
Center has the majority of South Texas in a Slight Risk (level 2
of 5) for severe weather and has indicated a 10% or greater
probability of two inch or larger diameter hail. We urge all
residents and visitors to the area to monitor their weather.
Please ensure you have multiple ways to receive warnings as storms
today could be dangerous.

On top of severe weather, we are under a Marginal Risk (level 1
of 4) for Excessive Rainfall today and Sunday, with the northern
Brush Country under a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4). We will be
monitoring these storms for high rainfall rates which could lead
to flash flooding, especially if it falls over compacted soils or
in urban areas today and tonight. The rain chances will persist
through Saturday night and into Sunday as the cold front stalls
across South Texas, leading to more beneficial rain. Low rain
chances will continue through early next week, increasing again by
the middle of the week as another cold front moves across the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Gusty southeast winds continue, but should decrease slightly through
07-09Z. Winds will not be as strong Saturday as a cold front
approaches the region, allowing the pressure gradient to relax. The
main concern will be the potential for severe storms with heavy
rainfall by the afternoon into Sunday morning. Have gone with
prevailing -shra for COT and LRD beginning in the early afternoon.
The front and associated storms are expected to shift east and reach
the eastern TAF sites by mid to late afternoon. High rain chances
continue through Sunday morning. For now, there is no severe
elements in the TAFs, but may need to add them with later updates.
Otherwise, A mix of MVFR/IFR CIGs can be expected through Sunday
morning. A mix of IFR and VFR conditions expected as the convection
moves across S TX.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1137 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Moderate (BF 4) southeasterly flow is expected today. Winds will
diminish to a gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) Sunday night through
early next week. Winds will increase once again to a moderate to
fresh breeze (BF 4-5) Tuesday ahead of another cold front. A
medium to high (40-70%) chance of showers and thunderstorms will
develop this afternoon and tonight and continue through Sunday
before decreasing to a low (<25%) chance Sunday night and
persisting through early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1137 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Rain chances will increase to medium to high (50-90%) today as a
cold front moves into the area. Strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible, especially over the Brush Country. With expected
rainfall, increased moisture, and a decrease in the winds,
elevated fire weather conditions are not anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    71  84  66  79 /  10  20  70  70
Victoria          69  84  61  78 /  10  40  90  70
Laredo            72  94  64  74 /  10  20  90  90
Alice             69  89  65  81 /  10  20  80  80
Rockport          70  81  66  79 /  10  20  70  70
Cotulla           71  89  62  74 /  10  60  90  80
Kingsville        70  89  66  81 /  10  20  70  80
Navy Corpus       71  78  68  76 /  10  20  70  80

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


DISCUSSION...LS/77
AVIATION...TE/81