Brownsville, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

925
FXUS64 KBRO 141935
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
235 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 226 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- A Flood Watch is in effect from Monday afternoon through
  Wednesday morning.

- There is a Marginal (level 1 of 4) to Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk
  of Excessive Rainfall across Deep South Texas Sunday into
  Wednesday.

- A Moderate to Major (levels 2-3 of 4) Heat Risk is forecast
  Thursday into Saturday. Heat Advisories may be needed Thursday
  and Friday.

- The National Hurricane Center continues a low chance (30%) of
  tropical development over the northwestern Gulf over the next 7
  days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

A low-level jet along the Gulf coast will continue to advect
tropical moisture into the region. PWAT values are forecast to
remain above 2 inches with peak amounts exceeding 2.5 inches. Weak
forcing aloft associated with a broad mid-level low pressure
system over eastern Mexico will likely support isolated scattered
showers and thunderstorms through Monday. Additional activity is
possible along the sea breeze Sunday and Monday afternoons.

The mid level low is forecast to tighten with a stronger surface
low developing over Northern Mexico Monday evening. This low will
likely slowly track east across South Texas Tuesday and Wednesday,
increasing PWAT values to 2.7 inches and supporting widespread
heavy rainfall. The heaviest period of rain will likely occur
Monday morning through Wednesday morning, with 48 hour rainfall
accumulations of 3-6 inches likely across most of the area and
locally higher amounts exceeding 8 inches possible. The Weather
Prediction Center has all of Deep South Texas except for the
immediate coast and barrier islands under a Slight Risk for
Excessive Rainfall (level 2 of 4) Monday, with a Marginal Risk
(level 1 of 4) along the coast. There is a Slight Risk across the
CWA Tuesday, and on Wednesday a Slight Risk will cover the eastern
third of the CWA with a Marginal Risk across the central portions
of the CWA. A Flood Watch is in effect for all of Deep South
Texas Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning.

As the low pressure system moves into the Gulf the National
Hurricane Center has a 30% chance for tropical development through
day 7. Any development at that point would likely have minimal
impact on Deep South Texas, though some increased swell along the
coast is possible, which could result in minor coastal flooding
and increased rip current risk.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Predominately VFR conditions are forecast to continue this
afternoon. Scattered showers moving through the area this
afternoon may briefly impact the airfields, though visibilities
and ceilings will likely remain VFR.

Rain chances subside slightly this evening with VFR to MVFR
ceilings likely overnight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will likely develop Monday morning, and may produce MVFR to IFR
ceilings and visibilities if any convection moves over an
airfield.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Marine conditions are forecast to continue improving this
afternoon with light to moderate winds and moderate seas
persisting through Tuesday. Winds and seas are forecast to
increase through the later half of the week with adverse to
hazardous conditions likely Wednesday and Thursday.

Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will be likely
through Wednesday as a low pressure system moves across Deep South
Texas and into the Western Gulf. The National Hurricane Center has
a 30% chance for tropical development with this system. If the
system does develop, impacts along the Lower Texas Coast will
likely be limited to increased swell.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             81  90  79  86 /  60  60  80  80
HARLINGEN               78  90  76  85 /  60  70  80  90
MCALLEN                 79  91  78  86 /  50  70  90  90
RIO GRANDE CITY         77  91  75  85 /  40  60  90  90
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      83  88  81  86 /  70  50  70  80
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     80  89  78  86 /  60  60  80  80

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning for
     TXZ248>255-351-353>355-451-454-455.

     High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...60