Brownsville, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

074
FXUS64 KBRO 112328 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
628 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Key Message: Main weather concern for tonight and potentially again
Saturday night is the potential for some patchy fog/low status
developing.

Dry and tranquil weather conditions are expected to persist through
the short term forecast period or through Saturday night, courtesy
of a persistent sfc high pressure system and weak upper level
ridging in place. On the backside of a sfc high pressure system and
cool front, a return flow out of the southeast is expected to
develop on Saturday. This will yield additional low level moisture
and warm air advection (WAA) into the region.

That said, the only main weather concern of note during the short
term period will be the potential for some patchy fog/low stratus
developing tonight and then possibly again on Saturday night due to
a combination of adequate radiational cooling, light winds, and
mainly clear skies, as advertised earlier. For tonight, the Grand
Ensemble from DESI is highlighting a medium (40-60%) chance for fog
developing tonight across a vast majority of Deep South Texas.
Slightly higher uncertainty for Saturday night due to slightly
stronger winds. That said, given the amount of low level moisture
advection taking place and radiational cooling from mainly clear
skies, we have to keep an eye on trends for additional fog, mist,
and low stratus developing again on Saturday night.

Temperature anomalies will be near normal levels for mid April
standards during the short term forecast period or through Saturday
night. High temperatures on Saturday are progged to reach the upper
80s to mid 90s (with 90s mainly confined to areas along and west of
IH-69E). Mid to upper 70s for highs along South Padre Island due to
onshore flow influences. For tonight, moderate to strong radiational
cooling amid clear skies and light winds will allow for overnight
lows to dip into the upper 50s over parts of the Northern Ranchlands
to lower 60s along the Rio Grande Valley (just slightly cooler than
normal levels). For Saturday night, slight winds out of the
southeast will result in slightly warmer and humid conditions. That
said, overnight lows are expected to be in the lower to mid 60s
across Deep South Texas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Rain-free conditions, warm temperatures, and breezy winds will
prevail through the long term period across Deep South Texas.
Mid-level ridging will be centered over the state of Texas, with
surface high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf and Southern
US, maintaining south to southeast winds and slightly above normal
temperatures. A weak frontal boundary associated with an upper
level system translating across the Northern US will attempt to
reach Deep South Texas by early Tuesday, but most guidance
indicates this boundary will likely stall just north of our region
or along the Northern Ranchlands. This will likely only result in
a wind shift to the east and northeast on Tuesday, with winds
shifting back to the southeast by Tuesday night. Towards the end
of the week, an upper level system and attendant surface features
will translate across the Plains, which will result in continued
breezy conditions as the pressure gradient tightens. There may be
some elevated fire weather concerns, mainly along and west of
US-281 due to the combination of warm temperatures, low afternoon
humidity, and breezy winds. Otherwise, expect near to slightly
above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

VFR conditions are expected to give way to MVFR and IFR
visibilities late tonight as winds diminish and patchy fog
develops across the Rio Grande Valley. Conditions improve after
sunrise with a southeast breeze returning by the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Tonight through Saturday Night...Favorable marine conditions with
light to moderate winds and low seas are expected to prevail through
Saturday night.

Sunday through next Friday...Generally favorable marine conditions
will prevail with generally low seas and low to moderate south to
southeast winds. There is a potential for borderline Small Craft
Exercise Caution conditions will prevail each afternoon through
the period due to an enhanced pressure gradient.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             61  86  66  84 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               59  88  64  88 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 63  93  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         60  93  63  93 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      65  78  68  77 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     61  83  65  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...56-Hallman