Austin, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

138
FXUS64 KEWX 112320
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
620 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Key Message:

- Elevated to Near-Critical Fire Weather Saturday Afternoon across
  the Rio Grande Plains and Southern Edwards Plateau

A weak frontal system is located roughly from Rocksprings to
Kerrville to Giddings as of 1 PM CDT. The boundary is forecasted to
slightly push to the southwest for the rest of the afternoon and
evening and then washes out. A few hires models suggest for a few
isolated showers to develop across parts of the southern Edwards
Plateau late afternoon/early evening. They were more aggressive
showing isolated shower activity in previous runs. We will keep 10
percent or less over that area for consistency. Otherwise, a dry
airmass continues to push over parts of the Hill Country with dew
points in the mid 40s and the rest of the local area in the lower to
mid 50s to lower 60s along the coastal plains. Today`s highs to
reach the mid 80s to mid 90s along the Rio Grande.

A few high clouds are expected to move from aloft this evening while
low clouds and patchy fog are expected to develop overnight/dawn
along the coastal plains. Overnight lows are forecasted to range
from the mid 50s over the northeast to mid 60s over the Rio Grande.

Southerly wind flow increases on Saturday especially along the Rio
Grande and Southern Edwards Plateau. Minimum relative are forecasted
to range from the teens to lower 20 percent. That said, near to near
critical fire weather conditions are in store for those locations.
We will monitor closely new data for future weather packages in case
of needing a Fire Danger Statement for the above mentioned areas on
Saturday afternoon.

For Saturday night, expect clear skies during the evening with low
clouds developing overnight with lows in the lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Key Messages:

- Above Average Warmth and Rain Free Conditions Continue

- Breezy Sunday with Fire Weather Concerns Western Half of Area

A west-northwesterly flow aloft continues through the period across
South-Central Texas under a persistent ridging signal as the active
storm track favors the Midwest through the Mid-Atlantic region. A
surface low advancing from Kansas into Iowa on Sunday helps to keep
the pressure gradient tighter across our region and will yield to
breezy southerly winds across our region through sunset. The gusty
winds combined with low humidity yield to an increase in the fire
weather concerns across the western half of our region. Please see
the fire weather discussion for additional details. The arrival of a
weak cold front is then expected on Monday night. This front looks
to remain rain free and brings only a slight dip in the temperature
department by around 5 degrees under the modest east-northeast flow
from Tuesday into Wednesday. A southerly and even more humid flow
then returns and temperatures will respond by warming back up again
Through Thursday into Friday. The next cold front then may arrive
sometime from Friday afternoon into Friday night. Cloud coverage
increases next week, but will be mainly concentrated with bouts of
morning low stratus.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

VFR flying conditions expected tonight through Saturday evening.
FEW-SCT around FL070 will dissipate with loss of heating after
sunset with SKC prevailing through Saturday evening. Reduced
CIGs/VSBYs are possible beyond this forecast, late Saturday night
into Sunday morning. Winds decouple with sunset and become mostly
light from the SE through tonight. Mixing during the day on Saturday
allows S to SE winds to increase to 10 to 17 KTs with some gusts to
25+ KTs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 146 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions could develop for
Saturday afternoon across portions of the Edwards Plateau and Rio
Grande Plains. Sunday afternoon may see the fire weather concerns
become more widespread to where locations along and west of US
highway 281 could see near critical to critical fire weather
conditions. This will be the result of south winds around 15 to 25
mph with higher gusts, well above average temperatures, humidity
levels as low as 10 to 25 percent, critically dry fuels, and a
recent lack of wetting rains over the past week. Fire weather
product issuance (Fire Danger Statement, Fire Weather Watch and/or
Red Flag Warning) will be assessed in upcoming forecast cycles.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              58  88  62  91 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  55  88  59  91 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     56  89  59  92 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            57  88  62  92 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           65  95  64  99 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        56  88  60  92 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             57  90  56  95 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        56  88  58  92 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   54  86  59  90 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       60  88  60  92 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           60  90  60  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...04