Austin, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

483
FXUS64 KEWX 300525
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1225 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025

Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered severe storms late tonight across the
southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, Rio Grande Plains and
portions of the I-35 corridor

- Pockets of heavy rainfall could lead to isolated instances of
flash flooding

A disturbance aloft will kick off scattered thunderstorms in West
Texas this afternoon and evening, eventually bringing a complex of
thunderstorms towards our area late tonight into Friday as a cold
front moves south. The majority of hi-res guidance develop an
organized complex of storms in Central Texas which will move
southeast and approach the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau
after midnight. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms within this
complex will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large
hail. In addition, heavy rainfall may also be seen which could lead
to isolated pockets of flash flooding, especially if storms move
over areas that have seen recent rains. As this complex of storms
progress southeast, there is a bit more uncertainty how strong it
will be and how far into our area this complex maintains itself. The
more robust models have started to favor the western areas over the
southern Edwards Plateau into the Rio Grande Plains for the heaviest
rainfall and strongest storms as noted by the HREF, while the
eastern portion of the line weakens. Granted, storms have continued
to over preform night after night this week so the I-35 corridor
should continue to be prepared for severe weather as much as our
western areas. The lowest confidence for rain and thunderstorms
remains over the coastal plains.

There remains uncertainty for Friday`s forecast given it will be
somewhat dependent on how things overnight play out. The front
should be somewhere in our southern CWA around sunrise with
lessening shower and storm activity over the area. Additional
activity Friday afternoon and evening is favored along the Rio
Grande and maybe the coastal plains, though chances remain low. It
will be cooler in the northern half of the area Friday afternoon
with highs mainly in the 80s, though the 90s remain further south.
Low to medium chances remain in the west Friday night into Saturday,
mainly with storms forming over Mexico and moving over the Rio
Grande into our area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025

Key Messages:

- Showers and thunderstorms possible Saturday and Monday. Not
  expecting any severe weather.

Northwesterly flow aloft will continue into the beginning of the
long term period. This will keep the unsettled pattern in place
Saturday. In addition, there may be an increase of mid-level
moisture from TS Alvin in the Pacific. An upper level ridge will
build over the Southern Plains Sunday bringing dry weather for the
first part of next week. Monday an upper level shortwave trough will
move over Texas and bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms
during the day. The best chances will be over the Southern Edwards
Plateau and Rio Grande Plains. Right now conditions don`t look
favorable for strong storms or excessive rainfall. Monday night
ridging will return bringing dry weather for the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025

VFR flight conditions begin the period but a storm complex across
Central and West Texas will advance southeastward with potential
impacts overnight through early morning at the area terminals.
This thunderstorm activity could impact the terminals between 09Z
and 15Z. Some showers could precede or linger behind the complex
for a couple of hours. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, heavy
rainfall, and small hail could be associated with activity. Winds
turn northerly behind the front and bring MVFR ceilings through
mid to late morning at KAUS and KSAT. Ceilings lift into and
through the afternoon to VFR levels. Winds decrease in speed and
become variable into Friday night.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              86  69  89  69 /  30  10  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  86  68  88  68 /  30  10  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     88  69  89  70 /  40  10  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            82  66  87  69 /  30  10  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           88  73  91  74 /  50  30  20  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        82  66  88  68 /  30  10  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             89  71  89  70 /  40  20  20  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        87  68  89  68 /  40  10  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   87  70  88  69 /  40  10  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       88  71  89  72 /  40  10  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           90  72  90  73 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...27
Long-Term...05
Aviation...Brady