Arlington, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

023
FXUS64 KFWD 061048
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
548 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Above normal temperatures and dry weather will continue.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Light winds, clear skies and dry air has led to another morning of
varying temperatures across the region. Eastland was
unsurprisingly the cool spot at 55 while DFW and Ft Worth Alliance
were both 73 during the past hour. Another warm one is in store
today with highs mostly in the lower 90s. A weak front tonight
will bring a minor temperature drop, but readings will remain
well above normal through Monday.

30

Previous Discussion:
/Through Monday/

Water vapor satellite imagery currently indicates an impressive
upper low moving east from Manitoba into Ontario, which is
generating upper troughing across the Midwest and Great lakes
region. The attendant surface low is almost completely co-located
with the upper low. A cold front extending south/southwest from
the surface low (currently stretching from near St Louis to
Amarillo) will push slowly southward through North and Central
Texas Sunday night and Monday. The front itself will be barely
noticeable as northeast winds will already be in place ahead of
the boundary. A slight backing of the winds will occur, however,
along with a very slight drop in temperature. Monday`s highs will
likely end up 2 to 4 degrees below Sunday`s, but temperatures will
still remain above normal for October.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 244 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024/
/Monday Night through Next Weekend/

High pressure will prevail for the first part of the upcoming work
week, with dry air filtering into the region through Tuesday in
the wake of this evening`s cold front. Temperatures will remain
above normal but in the mid 80s to low 90s instead of the mid 90s.
A strong ridge will build to our west and establish northwest flow
aloft for most of the week. Weak shortwave troughs will approach
the area late in the week and next weekend, but the chance that
any of these produce measurable precip is less than 10%. Overall,
it looks like we`ll remain in a generally quiet weather pattern
for the next 7-10 days.

A downside to this stretch of warm and dry weather is that the
ongoing drought isn`t going to get any better. Some areas along
the Red River (mainly west of our forecast area) are already in
D3 or extreme drought, and I would expect this area to expand with
future drought monitor updates. As a result, we`ll have to
monitor the fire weather threat as vegetation continues to dry.

Bonnette

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Light and variable to light southeast winds will shift to the
northeast at 6 to 10 kt by midday ahead of a weak cold front. The
front will back winds to a more northerly direction this evening,
but speeds will remain fairly light tonight (4-8 kt). Conditions
will otherwise remain VFR through Monday.

30

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    91  69  89  64  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                92  66  91  62  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               91  64  86  56  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              92  62  89  58  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            92  64  90  58  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              93  69  90  63  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             92  64  90  58  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           94  66  92  61  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              93  64  92  60  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       91  61  89  59  90 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$