Smyrna, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

901
FXUS64 KOHX 081739
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1239 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1229 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

- There is a slight (level 2 out of 5) risk for severe weather in
  middle Tennessee tomorrow. The main threat is damaging wind
  gusts.

- Temperatures will warm into the work week, with the possibility
  of hitting 90 degrees entering the forecast once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Lower level clouds are entering middle Tennessee from the north this
morning, circling around a surface low centered around Indiana and
Ohio. Thankfully, no rain or thunderstorms expected today. Expect
quiet weather for the rest of your Sunday, with highs in the 80s.

Tomorrow, the activity returns to start the work week. As a
shortwave pivots into the area around the southern portion of an UL
low, another shot at severe weather returns to middle Tennessee. The
biggest threat is damaging wind gusts, given the forecast soundings
that show a dry pocket around 700mb. DCAPE is a bit lower than what
we would want to see, but it`s close enough that any storm that
becomes severe will pose a wind threat. There is a slight hail
threat as well, but it is much lower than the wind threat. Most
guidance shows convection beginning to intensify in the afternoon
hours, as the boundary layer destabilizes. One disadvantage storms
have is as the CAPE increases into the afternoon and evening hours,
mid-level lapse rates start to plummet in most forecast soundings I
looked at. This is probably helping the hail threat stay low and our
overall severe threat stay low as well, as storms could have a
harder time getting tall. Storm mode is looking more discrete in the
guidance, which is supported by the slight risk. Storms could
continue into the evening; that part is a little bit more uncertain
in the guidance. For now, pay attention to the forecast and remain
weather aware if you have any outdoor plans on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Once we get past the start of the week, things level out for at
least a few days. Aside from a low chance for patchy fog, Tuesday
and Wednesday look quiet. Temperatures will continue on their
warming trend, and given weak UL flow, diurnal thunderstorms will be
possible into the weekend. Some could be strong, but as of now, not
expecting anything more than that. Thursday and Friday look to be
the warmest days of the week, as highs flirt with 90 degrees both
days in middle Tennessee.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Scattered to broken mid-level clouds have been streaming overhead
early this afternoon. Latest obs and satellite imagery support an
improving trend in CIGs, with mid-level clouds becoming for
scattered and lifting above 3,500 ft. Widespread VFR conditions
are expected to prevail through the afternoon and evening as sky
conditions continue to improve. Tonight, there is a medium chance
for SRB/CSV to see a brief period of reduced VIS between 06z-12z
due to BR. As for wind, gusty conditions will mature this
afternoon, between 15-22kts before diminishing through the
evening. They will also shift from NW today, to SSW tonight. By
18z tomorrow, forecast guidance suggest a layer of low to mid CIGs
move back over Middle TN, progressing west to east.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      67  85  63  84 /   0  80  20   0
Clarksville    65  81  61  82 /  10  70   0   0
Crossville     59  81  57  77 /   0  70  50  10
Columbia       64  84  60  83 /   0  80  20   0
Cookeville     62  81  59  78 /   0  80  40  10
Jamestown      59  81  58  78 /   0  80  40  10
Lawrenceburg   64  83  60  82 /   0  80  30   0
Murfreesboro   63  85  61  84 /   0  80  20   0
Waverly        64  78  59  82 /   0  80   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Cravens