Nashville, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

039
FXUS64 KOHX 191724
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1224 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1213 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

- Daily scattered storms continue this weekend with localized
  flooding, frequent lightning, and gusty winds possible.

- A hot week is upon us with daily heat index values near or just
  above 105 for areas west of the Cumberland Plateau.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of western Middle TN
  Sunday from 11AM-8PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

We are under a good deal of cloud cover this morning, resulting
in slightly cooler temperatures than we`ve experienced at this
time of day recently. Most of Middle TN is in the low 80s this
morning with VERY muggy conditions...dew point temps well into the
70s. The 12Z OHX sounding revealed PWAT values still over 2".
2.03 to be exact, exceeding the 90th percentile climatology. With
that, flash flooding potential remains top of mind. There is a
boundary currently extending across mid MS up through north AL
that is gradually moving north. Eventually, CAMs show this
boundary draping across our southwest counties up through the
Cumberland Plateau. This feature will provide focus for training
thunderstorm potential and in turn, a higher threat for flash
flooding as the NBM is painting a few 3+ inch bullseyes along the
plateau today. Scattered storms capable of producing intense
rainfall will remain a possibilty for everyone in Middle TN today,
but if you`re south of I-40/east of I-65, be on the lookout for
any flooding today. Activity will dwindle down later this evening,
leaving us with another muggy night.

Sunday will feature a slight shift in our upper air pattern as
ridging aloft amplifies, leading to hotter temperatures. A Heat
Advisory has been issued for roughly the western half of Middle TN
tomorrow from 11AM-8PM for heat index values of 105+. Scattered
thunderstorms posing a flash flood and gusty wind threat will
remain possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

The extended period looks HOT. Let`s start with Monday. The upper
level high over the gulf will shift west while the dome of high
pressure across the midwest shifts east, pushing a trough across the
northeast. A front will be associated with this trough off to our
northeast that will provide forcing for additional thunderstorm
development Monday. The severe threat remains very low as
parameters and the overall airmass remain largely unchanged,
meaning gusty winds and localized flooding will be the primary
threats. Moving into Tuesday and beyond, the upper level high
will move further into our area, further suppressing our rain
chances. PWATs also drop back to around 1.50", which is near
normal. Deterministic models are showing a 597 High setting up
across the Ohio River Valley, really driving temperatures up
through the remainder of the week. Highs across Middle TN next
week will likely be in the mid 90s each day with dew point
temperatures in the 70s. This combination will result in heat
index values of 105+ for several days in a row. Low PoP chances
remain each day with moisture still present, but the heat will
certainly be the most impactful feature next week. This is your
reminder to take it easy out there if you work outdoors or have to
be outside for a prolonged period of time during the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Radar trends indicate showers with isolated thunderstorms continue
to progress across southern Middle TN, likely impacting BNA, MQY,
and especially SRB and CSV. CKV might not see anything until later
this evening per model guidance, with activity greatly diminishing
around 04Z. Will have to watch for low CIGS and VIS reductions at
SRB and CSV overnight, then VFR conditions after 14Z. Areas east
of I-65 could see storms develop after 18Z tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      76  96  77  96 /  20  30  20  40
Clarksville    77  94  77  94 /  10  20  20  30
Crossville     70  87  70  88 /  30  60  20  70
Columbia       74  93  74  95 /  10  30  10  40
Cookeville     72  89  72  90 /  20  50  40  60
Jamestown      71  88  71  87 /  30  60  40  70
Lawrenceburg   72  91  73  94 /  10  30  10  50
Murfreesboro   74  94  74  95 /  20  30  10  50
Waverly        74  93  74  94 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ005>009-
023>029-056>062-075-093>095.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....05