Nashville, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

914
FXUS64 KOHX 150022
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
722 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 715 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

- There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
  Thursday afternoon and night. Greatest chance for severe storms
  will be N of I-40. Strong winds and small hail are the main
  concerns.

- There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
  Friday evening into early Saturday morning. Damaging wind gusts
  and large hail are the main concerns.

- Hot weather arrives with high temperatures climbing into the
  upper 80s to near 90 through the end of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 715 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

There is significantly less active weather this evening than last
evening or the one before. The pesky upper low which sparked so
much convection in past days has finally pulled away and we
actually have an upper ridge building over Middle Tennessee. The
00Z sounding from OHX shows plenty of CAPE and a great deal of
moisture, but the instability is elevated owing to a big capping
inversion situated above 850 mb, and not much is getting past that
elevated warm layer. So we can enjoy minimal rain chances over the
forthcoming 24 hrs or so before the next round of active weather
gets going later tomorrow night and especially Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 959 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Our spinning surface low that has been parked over Middle TN has
now moved off to the east. We saw widespread fog and low clouds
this morning, but fog has lifted and clouds are beginning to
breakup with increased daytime mixing. By this afternoon, we will
be looking at a pleasant day with highs in the 80s and a steady
breeze, with winds gusting around 15 mph. That said, it will be a
little humid as increased SW flow keeps min RHs in the 60s. There
is also a low chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon, but coverage will be limited and mainly E of I-65.
There is a very low chance that any storms that do form become
severe.

Models have been pulling back slightly on Thursday`s severe
weather potential for Middle TN. I believe this is largely to do a
weak CAP that looks to remain over the region Thursday. As of
right now, SPC has areas N of I-40 (cooridor of better lapse
rates) under a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms.
The main threat looks to be strong winds and small hail. As for
timing, in general, Thursday afternoon looks the most favorable
for any storms to become severe. This will largely be driven by
warm surface temperatures increasing buoyancy combined with
increasing bulk wind shear through the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 959 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue through Thursday
night as a cold front pushes through the overnight hours. There
will remain a low chance for storms to become severe Thursday
night into early Friday morning, with moderate CAPE and sufficient
bulk shear.

There remains plenty of uncertainty on Friday`s severe weather
threat. The main areas of uncertainty revolve around exact timing
and location, but as of right now, Friday night looks the most
favorable for severe weather. There will be a favorable
environment, with models continuing to support CAPE values
between 2500-3500 J/kg, 50-60 kts of 0-6km bulk shear, and mid-
level lapse rates around 7 C/km Friday afternoon into Saturday
morning. The uncertainty revolves around the warm sector and how
far north the boundary can make it. That said, models continue to
support scattered storms, organized clusters, and even some
continue to depict a strong MCS structure developing to our north
along the boundary and pushing through sometime Friday night into
early Saturday.

As Friday approaches, we hope to have a better idea of potential
location and timing for Friday nights storms. Moving into the
weekend, an upper ridge begins to build in from the west.
Depending on how far east the ridge builds will decide our rain
chances going into early next week. As of now, looks like mostly
dry with some periods of showers and thunderstorms possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the taf period. There
is a low chance that MVFR stratocu develop around 12z at CSV/SRB
but confidence is low. In addition, there is a low chance CKV is
impacted by a light shower after 20z but chances are too low to
include. Winds will continue out of the S/SSW around 5 kts
overnight before increasing to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts after
15z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      70  89  73  88 /  10  10  40  50
Clarksville    69  88  72  86 /  10  10  60  50
Crossville     62  84  67  83 /  20  10  30  40
Columbia       67  86  72  86 /   0  10  20  30
Cookeville     65  84  70  83 /  10  10  40  50
Jamestown      63  86  67  84 /  20  10  40  50
Lawrenceburg   66  84  71  85 /   0  10  20  20
Murfreesboro   68  86  72  87 /  10  10  30  40
Waverly        68  87  70  85 /   0  10  50  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Rose
SHORT TERM...Cravens
LONG TERM....Cravens
AVIATION.....Reagan