Murfreesboro, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

119
FXUS64 KOHX 190103
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
Issued by National Weather Service Morristown TN
803 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 751 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

- Active pattern will bring shower and thunderstorm chances
  through late Tuesday.

- Another severe weather event will be possible Tuesday afternoon
  and evening.

- Much cooler and drier air will push across the area by mid-week
  continuing into the first half of next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 751 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

We will see quiet weather into the overnight with mid to high
level clouds working over the region. Lows will fall into the low
to mid 60s. A stationary front that is currently along the TN/AL
boarder will start to lift north overnight and should lift through
Middle TN by the mid morning Monday. Thunderstorm complexes are
starting to develop over the Plains. These will push east
overnight and they should weaken some by the time they reach
Middle TN by daybreak or so. They will continue to work east
through Middle TN during the morning hours into the early
afternoon. By the mid morning we should see enough CAPE build in
along with bulk shear 35-45 knots. This will be enough to see
storms intensify and possible become strong to severe. A lack of
low level wind shear will keep the tornado threat very low with
wind and hail the primary threat. As with decaying MCS`s there is
always a lot of uncertainty with them in regards to timing and how
widespread convection will be when it gets here. This forecast
may very well change by the morning but it at least looks like
strong storms are not out of the question mid morning into the mid
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1142 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

There are plenty of clouds across the area this morning. A
stationary frontal boundary is draped across the TN/AL state line
with some light returns showing up on radar in West TN. There is a
low chance of scattered showers and possibly a storm this
afternoon developing across the south in closer proximity to the
surface boundary. Models show a shortwave disturbance approaching
the area Monday morning which could bring additional showers and
storms. Models are not in great agreement with the coverage and
timing on Monday but generally chances increase in the afternoon.
Looking at soundings Monday afternoon there will be ample
instability and 40 kts or greater of Effective Bulk Shear which
means a severe storm can not be ruled out during the afternoon if
storms manage to develop. The low level helicity is very low so I
do not expect tornadoes to be a threat. Instead, gusty winds and
large hail will be the primary threats.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1142 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

We continue to look at a more organized severe setup on Tuesday as
a trough pivots out of the Mountain West. Storms are expected to
develop Tuesday afternoon ahead of a strong cold front. Storms may
start with a cellular mode and then grow into a line or two as
they move east. Right now, all threats of damaging straight line
winds, large hail, and tornadoes look possible. The general timing
for the severe threat will be mid afternoon through the early
overnight hours.

Behind the front, cooler conditions will work into the area as a
large eastern CONUS upper trough takes hold. Highs for the
majority of the area on Thursday and Friday will struggle to reach
70 degrees with lows dropping into the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 746 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

VFR conditions through the overnight with dry weather. Showers
and thunderstorms will start to move in from the west after 10z
and will work east through the morning hours. IFR/LIFR can be
expected in any thunderstorms with low vis and low cigs. Gusty
winds will also be possible with thunderstorms. The majority of
the thunderstorm chances will exit the area by 21z. Light
northerly winds under 5 knots shifting southerly by 12z 5-10
knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      67  86  71  87 /  20  60  40  90
Clarksville    65  84  70  84 /  30  60  60  90
Crossville     59  79  64  81 /  10  70  30  80
Columbia       66  87  71  85 /  30  60  30  90
Cookeville     62  81  67  83 /  10  70  30  90
Jamestown      58  78  64  83 /   0  70  30  90
Lawrenceburg   65  85  70  85 /  30  50  20  80
Murfreesboro   65  86  70  87 /  20  60  30  90
Waverly        65  86  69  83 /  40  60  50  90

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Mueller
SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Mueller