Knoxville, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

606
FXUS64 KMRX 061501
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1101 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1058 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Overall, little change was made to the forecast. Temperatures had
been rising slightly quicker than expected this morning due to
lessened fog and low clouds than was previously anticipated.
Hourly values were raised, but overall highs were kept largely the
same. Sky cover was also slightly decreased for the late morning
and early afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Key Messages:

1. Patchy dense fog early this morning. especially in the
northeast and southwest Virginia. Locally dense.

2. Unseasonably warm today with highs 5 to 10 degrees above
normal.

Discussion:

Satellite and observations show fog developing along the river
valleys in southwest Virginia/Plateau and northeast Tennessee.
Also, an area of 5kft scattered/broken clouds have developed over
southeast Tennessee and southwest North Carolina.

Fog is not widespread enough to warrant a dense fog advisory but
will message since some of the fog is dense.

Fog and area of cloud will dissipate this morning giving way to
mostly sunny sky and unseasonably warm temperatures. Highs will be
near 10 degrees above normal.

For tonight, an upper trough will move across the Great
Lakes/upper Ohio valley. Majority of the dynamic forcing will be
well north of the area but a frontal boundary will move across
late. HREF shows limited CAPE, generally less than 500 J/Kg. Will
mention a slight chance to chance of showers for mainly the
northern Plateau, southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. Most
locations will remain dry.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Key Messages:

1. Near to slightly below normal temperatures and dry conditions
will dominate the extended period.

Discussion:

Deep northwesterly to northerly flow is expected to develop across
the region following a frontal passage Monday morning. This will
mark the start of a cooling trend, with temperatures near to
slightly below normal expected for much of the upcoming work week.
Persistent influence from surface high pressure will keep conditions
dry. Strong radiational cooling will allow for overnight
temperatures to fall into the 40s for most locations each night.
Highest peaks in southwest Virginia & the East Tennessee mountains,
as well as favorable cold air drainage locations, may even see
temperatures encroach upper 30s. Minor H5 height increases into the
weekend translate to a very subtle warming trend. Dry weather will
continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 724 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

So far this morning fog has not developed at the TRI/TYS/CHA
airports. Satellite and observations show areas of fog near TRI so
will maintain a tempo there through 13Z.

Otherwise, VFR conditions. For tonight, a frontal boundary will
move toward the TAF sites. HREF shows and latest deterministic
models show a window of 5kft cloud cover at TRI and TYS. A few
showers may approach TRI but confidence is too low to include at
the airport.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             87  62  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  85  61  76  50 /   0  10   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       85  58  76  48 /   0  20   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              81  56  72  43 /   0  20   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM....KRS
AVIATION...DH