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Knoxville, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for 2 Miles ESE Knoxville TN
National Weather Service Forecast for: 2 Miles ESE Knoxville TN
Issued by: National Weather Service Morristown, TN
Updated: 1:44 pm EDT Aug 12, 2025
 
This
Afternoon
This Afternoon: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall.  High near 87. Southwest wind around 5 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Heavy Rain

Tonight

Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after midnight. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm.  Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Heavy Rain

Wednesday

Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall.  Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. Southwest wind around 5 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Heavy Rain

Wednesday
Night
Wednesday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am, then a chance of showers after 2am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.  Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Heavy Rain
then Chance
T-storms
Thursday

Thursday: A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am.  Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Calm wind.  Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Chance
T-storms

Thursday
Night
Thursday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Calm wind.
Chance
T-storms then
Partly Cloudy
Friday

Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm.  Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 91. Calm wind.
Mostly Sunny
then Slight
Chance
T-storms
Friday
Night
Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 72.
Mostly Clear

Saturday

Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm.  Sunny and hot, with a high near 93.
Mostly Sunny
then Slight
Chance
T-storms
Hi 87 °F Lo 72 °F Hi 85 °F Lo 71 °F Hi 88 °F Lo 71 °F Hi 91 °F Lo 72 °F Hi 93 °F

Hazardous Weather Outlook
Special Weather Statement
 

This Afternoon
 
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 87. Southwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after midnight. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Wednesday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. Southwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night
 
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am, then a chance of showers after 2am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday
 
A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Thursday Night
 
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Calm wind.
Friday
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 91. Calm wind.
Friday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 72.
Saturday
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Sunny and hot, with a high near 93.
Saturday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 72.
Sunday
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sunny and hot, with a high near 93.
Sunday Night
 
A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly clear, with a low around 72.
Monday
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sunny and hot, with a high near 93.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for 2 Miles ESE Knoxville TN.

Weather Forecast Discussion
242
FXUS64 KMRX 121813
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
213 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall, high rainfall rates, and localized flash
flooding are possible from this afternoon through Wednesday.

2. Scattered to widespread showers and embedded storms.

3. Reduced converage of storms for the latter half of the week
through early next week. Return to hot and muggy conditions as
well with heat indices increasing to mid 90s to near 100 degrees
across much of the Tennessee and Sequatchie valleys.

Discussion:

...Localized Excessive Rainfall and Flash Flooding Possible from
this Afternoon through Wednesday...

A tropical wave across the northern Gulf and southwest flow into
the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians will pull abundant
tropical moisture into the region. Ensemble and deterministic
models show PWs increasing to 2.1 to possibly 2.3 inches which is
2-3 standard deviations above normal or 99th percentile. There is
also weak 850mb moisture transport. A series of weak vorts/shear
axis will move north into the periphery of the ridge into the
Appalachians enhancing convection. Also, local terrain will also
focus potential of enhanced rainfall.

The REFS and HREF are in agreement with the potential of locally
heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Ensemble mean has a more
defined 3"+ in localized areas. On the fence for issuing a flash
flood watch. Would feel much more confident to issue a watch is a
boundary was evident across the region focusing the convection.

Held off issuing a watch given collaboration with the surrounding
WFOs but will send out DSS briefing and SPS highlighting the
threat.

Besides the potential of heavy rains, plenty of tropical moisture
will keep sky mostly cloudy and keep temperatures below normal
through mid-week.

For Thursday, upper trough will move into the area and weaken.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be expected with the main
concern being localized flash flooding.

For Friday into early next week, ensemble cluster analysis shows
increasing heights with upper ridge building into the mid-section
of the nation. End result will be decreasing chances of mainly
afternoon and early evening storms. Most of the convection will be
confined to the higher terrain, especially far east Tennessee
mountains and southwest North Carolina which is farther away from
upper ridge axis.

Also temperatures will increase with highs in the lower and middle
90s and heat indices of 95 to 100 over much of the Tennessee and
Sequatchie valleys.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Will have showers and thunderstorms around through the period, and
timing at any given site is not possible to pin down. Will carry a
lot of VCSH and VCTS with a tempo and prob30 group at each site
trying to time the higher probability periods. Expect VFR and
MVFR conditions for the most part all sites, but lower conditions
can be expected in heavier precipitation.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             73  86  72  89 /  70  70  40  50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  72  86  72  88 /  60  70  50  40
Oak Ridge, TN                       72  85  71  88 /  70  70  50  40
Tri Cities Airport, TN              69  83  69  84 /  80  70  60  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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