Johnson City, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for 2 Miles ENE Mountain Home TN
National Weather Service Forecast for:
2 Miles ENE Mountain Home TN
Issued by: National Weather Service Morristown, TN |
Updated: 1:44 pm EDT Aug 12, 2025 |
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This Afternoon
 Heavy Rain
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Tonight
 Heavy Rain
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Wednesday
 Heavy Rain
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Wednesday Night
 T-storms Likely then Showers Likely
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Thursday
 Chance Showers then Showers Likely
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Thursday Night
 Showers Likely then Partly Cloudy
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Friday
 Partly Sunny then Chance T-storms
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Friday Night
 Chance T-storms then Mostly Clear
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Saturday
 Sunny then Chance T-storms
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Hi 82 °F |
Lo 69 °F |
Hi 84 °F |
Lo 68 °F |
Hi 86 °F |
Lo 67 °F |
Hi 89 °F |
Lo 67 °F |
Hi 90 °F |
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Hazardous Weather Outlook
Special Weather Statement
This Afternoon
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 82. Southwest wind around 5 mph. |
Tonight
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Showers and thunderstorms before 4am, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly after 4am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 69. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. |
Wednesday
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Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 5pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 5pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. |
Wednesday Night
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Showers and thunderstorms likely before 7pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 7pm and 2am, then a chance of showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. |
Thursday
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A chance of showers before 11am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 2pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. |
Thursday Night
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Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. |
Friday
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Calm wind. |
Friday Night
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 67. |
Saturday
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Sunny and hot, with a high near 90. |
Saturday Night
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 67. |
Sunday
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sunny and hot, with a high near 90. |
Sunday Night
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A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly clear, with a low around 67. |
Monday
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sunny and hot, with a high near 91. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for 2 Miles ENE Mountain Home TN.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
242
FXUS64 KMRX 121813
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
213 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025
...New DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall, high rainfall rates, and localized flash
flooding are possible from this afternoon through Wednesday.
2. Scattered to widespread showers and embedded storms.
3. Reduced converage of storms for the latter half of the week
through early next week. Return to hot and muggy conditions as
well with heat indices increasing to mid 90s to near 100 degrees
across much of the Tennessee and Sequatchie valleys.
Discussion:
...Localized Excessive Rainfall and Flash Flooding Possible from
this Afternoon through Wednesday...
A tropical wave across the northern Gulf and southwest flow into
the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians will pull abundant
tropical moisture into the region. Ensemble and deterministic
models show PWs increasing to 2.1 to possibly 2.3 inches which is
2-3 standard deviations above normal or 99th percentile. There is
also weak 850mb moisture transport. A series of weak vorts/shear
axis will move north into the periphery of the ridge into the
Appalachians enhancing convection. Also, local terrain will also
focus potential of enhanced rainfall.
The REFS and HREF are in agreement with the potential of locally
heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Ensemble mean has a more
defined 3"+ in localized areas. On the fence for issuing a flash
flood watch. Would feel much more confident to issue a watch is a
boundary was evident across the region focusing the convection.
Held off issuing a watch given collaboration with the surrounding
WFOs but will send out DSS briefing and SPS highlighting the
threat.
Besides the potential of heavy rains, plenty of tropical moisture
will keep sky mostly cloudy and keep temperatures below normal
through mid-week.
For Thursday, upper trough will move into the area and weaken.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be expected with the main
concern being localized flash flooding.
For Friday into early next week, ensemble cluster analysis shows
increasing heights with upper ridge building into the mid-section
of the nation. End result will be decreasing chances of mainly
afternoon and early evening storms. Most of the convection will be
confined to the higher terrain, especially far east Tennessee
mountains and southwest North Carolina which is farther away from
upper ridge axis.
Also temperatures will increase with highs in the lower and middle
90s and heat indices of 95 to 100 over much of the Tennessee and
Sequatchie valleys.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025
Will have showers and thunderstorms around through the period, and
timing at any given site is not possible to pin down. Will carry a
lot of VCSH and VCTS with a tempo and prob30 group at each site
trying to time the higher probability periods. Expect VFR and
MVFR conditions for the most part all sites, but lower conditions
can be expected in heavier precipitation.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 86 72 89 / 70 70 40 50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 86 72 88 / 60 70 50 40
Oak Ridge, TN 72 85 71 88 / 70 70 50 40
Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 83 69 84 / 80 70 60 60
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...
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