Columbia, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

431
FXUS64 KOHX 231742
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1142 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1114 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

The clouds are getting an `A` for effort, that`s for sure. They
managed to keep half of Middle TN blanketed in relative warmth last
night, only allowing areas south of I-40 and west of I-65 to drop
below freezing. Most everybody else saw morning lows in the 40s.
Since the sun came up, they are getting more than just a
participation trophy for clearing out of here. It`s a little slow,
but all of Middle TN should be basking in sunshine by early this
afternoon. This will leave us with highs in the low to middle 50s
before sunset. I haven`t messed with the NBM`s overnight
temperatures much. We`ll be clear with calm winds tonight, which
will lead to more people seeing below freezing temperatures, but the
bulk of spots that see the mercury fall below 32 will be
sheltered/valley locations across our south and east. After the cool
morning, tomorrow should be pretty fantastic with very mild
afternoon highs and more sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1114 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

The upcoming week will be headlined by two weather systems. The
first should make its appearance in the mid-state Monday afternoon
and evening, preceded by breezy pressure gradient winds. With a
lack of instability associated with this system, thunder should be
non-existent and rainfall totals should relatively light. Cold
air similar to tonight will filter in behind Monday`s system, but
I don`t think it`ll touch the airmass coming in behind the second
system of the week.

Speaking of the second system of the week, there are still some
significant model differences regarding the placement of the surface
low. Depending on its trajectory, we could see a little thunder in
our southern counties Wednesday evening. However, I`ve leaned away
from this, so we can expect a good dousing of rain Wednesday night
through Thanksgiving Day. The bulk of ensembles suggest 1 to 2
inches for this holiday system, but there are about 15-20%
showing slightly more than that. Bottom line, this system is
going to be a real turkey.

There has been a little chatter about what the cold air behind this
system will do. It`s going to be chasing the precipitation. This
scenario is by far the most often occurring winterish scenario in
Middle TN: showers being chased by cold air and the big question
being whether they`ll meeting up for snow chances. For now, I`ll say
no. Forecast soundings dry out before cold enough air can get in
here, leaving everything we see liquidy. However, it`s pretty
stinkin` cold air behind this system. A big CP airmass is being seen
in all models and will likely bring us our coldest temperatures of
the season. Yes, it`s a week out, but next Saturday`s forecast
morning lows current sit in the low to mid 20s. If you`re counting,
that means if the first colder airmass of the week doesn`t get BNA
to freezing, we`ll break the record for the latest first fall freeze
currently November 27th, set in 2009.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

The low cloud deck has become a bit more patchy over the last few
hours, but MVFR cigs are persisting. Expect broken low clouds to
continue through the early afternoon hours, then gradually give
way to VFR skies as we head toward nightfall. Winds will remain
light out of the west and southwest and become calm overnight
tonight. Fog is most likely at CSV and SRB early Sunday morning.
Left out mention of fog at other terminals for now. Mostly clear
skies expected on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      56  36  66  51 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    54  34  64  51 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     51  28  61  42 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       56  32  65  49 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     51  33  61  46 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      50  30  62  45 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   56  32  64  49 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   55  32  65  50 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        54  36  64  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Whitehead