Collierville, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

775
FXUS64 KMEG 250413
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1113 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are expected over the next
  7 days, capable of producing heavy rainfall and localized flash
  flooding.

- Temperatures will trend near normal with highs in the upper 70s
  to mid 80s and lows in the 60s through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

00Z upper air analysis and GOES Water Vapor satellite trends show
a cutoff upper-level low over the Southern Plains with a northern
stream trough extending along the Mississippi Valley. Afternoon
and evening rain showers have ended across the area with the loss
of daytime instability. Mostly cloudy skies prevail across the
Mid-South late this evening with temperatures in the lower 70s at
most locations.

A moist atmosphere, combined with temperatures nearing saturation
and nearly calm winds, supports at least medium confidence (40-
60% chance) for patchy fog to areas of fog development overnight,
especially east of the Mississippi River. A cutoff upper-level
low over the Southern Plains will gradually drift east into the
Lower Mississippi Valley through Wednesday. This will bring a
gradual increase in shower and thunderstorm chances across the
Mid-South. Convective Allowing Models (CAMs) indicate the best
coverage will occur during peak heating each day. With overall
shear remaining weak (less than 15 kts) and precipitable water
values rising to around 1.9 inches (95th percentile for late
May), localized rainfall will be the predominant threat with any
stronger storms.

Long range ensemble and deterministic model trends show a
northern stream upper-level trough eventually spreading into the
Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys towards late week into
next weekend. This will bring a continuation of rain chances to
the Mid-South through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Tricky TAF set remains in this issuance as a few low pressure
systems rotate in across the Lower Mississippi Valley. IFR and
pockets of LIFR conditions will soon begin to take precedence
across the airspace. Fog is also expected across all TAF sites
with reduced visibility along narrow dewpoint depressions and
saturated soils. Fog should lift shortly after sunrise as
ceilings also begin to rise to MVFR and eventually VFR, west to
east. Isolated to scattered -SHRA is expected across JBR/MEM/MKL
in the afternoon, warranting PROB30s. Prevailing -SHRA is
expected at TUP as the aforementioned upper-low rotates over NE
MS. Fog is expected again overnight Tuesday.

AEH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

No major fire danger concerns are expected for the foreseeable
future. Showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast
through at least the end of the work week as a wet and unsettled
pattern persists across the Mid-South.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...AEH