Cleveland, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

148
FXUS64 KMRX 141903
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
303 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

Key Messages:

1. Low-end marginal severe weather threat today primarily for hail
and damaging winds. Isolated flooding cannot be ruled out either.

2. Hotter temperatures expected Thursday.

.SHORT TERM...

Currently a few showers and storms present across southwest VA and
additional ones trying to develop back into TN as a trough continues
to move through the southern Appalachians. Convection across east
Tennessee has thus far struggled to develop and maintain, but if
convection is able to fire off later this afternoon and evening
there will be enough instability to produce strong to possibly
severe thunderstorms. Moderate shear, ample DCAPE with the dry mid-
layer, and CAPE 1,000+ J/kg means the atmosphere would be supportive
of strong to severe thunderstorms.. But there is very little in the
way of synoptic forcing. Weak synoptic forcing maintains overnight
once the inversion begins to set up and the lower levels of the
atmosphere become less favorable for storm development. Primary
threats continue to be damaging wind gusts or hail in the storms
that do develop during the afternoon/evening hours. With the
widespread rain we`ve received recently, if a location gets hit by
multiple rounds of storms we could see quick, but brief, flooding of
low lying areas tonight.

Once we move into the overnight hours storms that have already
developed will have the opportunity to maintain their strength, but
it will likely be harder for new development to form unless it`s
along outflow boundaries from previous storms. Best chances for
storms still looks to be for areas north of Interstate 40. As we
approach sunrise any locations that got widespread rain will have a
decent chance to see fog form as the skies to try clear out on the
back side of the system.

Generally quiet weather can be expected on Thursday as ridging
begins to build in, but cannot totally rule out some isolated shower
activity in southwest VA on the periphery of the building ridge.
Thursday`s biggest weather story will be the return of the 80+
degree temperatures for much of the southern Appalachians.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

Key Messages:

1. Strong to severe thunderstorms possible late Thursday
night/Friday morning and again late Friday night/Saturday morning.
Damaging winds and hail are the main concern.

2. Unsettled weather will continue for Saturday through early next
week with isolated strong to severe storms possible.  Initially
across the southern Plateau and southeast Tennessee then lifting
northeast.

3. Another round of severe storms possible Wednesday even though
confidence is low.

Discussion:

For Thursday night and Friday morning, increasing jet dynamics will
move across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys with broad divergence.
Toward daybreak, an area of convection will move into southwest
Virginia, northern Plateau and northeast Tennessee. Cluster analysis
shows and deterministic models show favorable mid-level lapse rates
with values of 7.5 degrees and effective shear of 55-60 knots.
Overall CAPE will be from 500 to 1000. Main concern will be large
hail up to quarter size hail and damaging winds. Per NBM
precipitation probabilities, highest chances will be along and north
of interstate 40.

For Friday night and Saturday, an upper trough will move across the
Great Lakes pulling a frontal boundary toward the Tennessee valley
and southern Appalachians. Once again upper forcing increases by
daybreak with increasing coverage of convection. Airmass is similar
to Friday with mid-level lapse rate of 7.5 degree and effective
shear of 40-45 knots. Hodograph shows mainly a uni-directional flow
but with speed shear.  Overall CAPE of 500-1000. Depending on timing
of main band of convection there is a potential of severe storms
with the main risk being damaging winds and hail.

For Saturday and Sunday, the frontal will become quasi-stationary
near the Tennessee state-line (Alabama-Georgia). Strong to possibly
severe storms will be possible across the southern counties
depending on the proximity of this boundary.

For Monday and Tuesday, the quasi-stationary boundary will lift
north and wash-out. Again, can not rule out strong to possibly
severe storms near the proximity of this boundary.

For Wednesday, another upper trough will lift northeast across the
Plain states with a frontal boundary moving across the Tennessee
valley. Cluster analysis shows plenty of CAPE/Shear for an outbreak
of severe storms. Confidence is low on timing and potential since
this event is several days out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

Afternoon storms could develop at all sites, but coverage and
certainty of impacts is much higher in northeast TN and southwest
VA closer to the trough. Expect coverage and strength of storms to
peak in the afternoon/evening hours, but chances will linger
overnight near KTRI. Low certainty on fog overnight, but if mid
level clouds clear out KTRI will likely drop to IFR or lower
before sunrise.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             65  87  70  88 /  10   0   0  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  65  85  70  86 /  20  10  10  30
Oak Ridge, TN                       65  85  69  86 /  20  10  10  30
Tri Cities Airport, TN              61  83  66  84 /  40  10  20  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....DH
AVIATION...