Brentwood, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

335
FXUS64 KOHX 121737
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1237 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1233 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

- Medium to high rain chances (50 - 80%) through Thursday, with
  the wettest day looking to be Wednesday. No severe weather is
  expected.

- Heat returns this weekend, with high temperatures in the mid to
  upper 90s. Heat indices will get into the low triple digits, but
  are expected to stay below advisory criteria.&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Showers continue to blossom on radar this morning, with puffy clouds
overtaking the skies on satellite. Some guidance is picking up on
the showers becoming more widespread like they are, but others are
struggling. Today, the rain chances will be highest south of I-40
and east of I-24, with our lowest rain chances being around the land
between the lakes. Heading into Wednesday, everyone has a 50/50 shot
of seeing at least some rain, with most likely places being south of
I-40 and east of I-65. This air mass is incredibly moist, with PWATs
around 2 inches on this morning`s 12z sounding. Guidance shows PWATs
right around 2" to 2.2" through Wednesday night, when a front begins
to push south out of the midwest and dry us out a bit. With that
amount of moisture though, heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out from
any showers or thunderstorms that develop and take advantage of
that. Severe weather is not expected with these precipitation
chances, and frequent lightning and heavy rainfall are the biggest
threats through mid-week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Showers continue to blossom on radar this morning, with puffy clouds
overtaking the skies on satellite. Some guidance is picking up on
the showers becoming more widespread like they are, but others are
struggling. Today, the rain chances will be highest south of I-40
and east of I-24, with our lowest rain chances being around the land
between the lakes. Heading into Wednesday, everyone has a 50/50 shot
of seeing at least some rain, with most likely places being south of
I-40 and east of I-65. This air mass is incredibly moist, with PWATs
around 2 inches on this morning`s 12z sounding. Guidance shows PWATs
right around 2" to 2.2" through Wednesday night, when a front begins
to push south out of the midwest and dry us out a bit. With that
amount of moisture though, heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out from
any showers or thunderstorms that develop and take advantage of
that. Severe weather is not expected with these precipitation
chances, and frequent lightning and heavy rainfall are the biggest
threats through mid-week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Rain chances begin to decrease on Thursday, as a front drops south
into middle Tennessee. Into the weekend, a high pressure system will
begin to take hold of the area, driving up our temperatures into the
start of the work week next week. Highs will climb into the mid to
upper 90s by Monday, with heat indices in the low triple digits. At
this time, heat advisories are not expected with heat indices
staying below 105 degrees. We will continue to monitor the situation
and possible need as we get closer to the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Deep low level moisture has moved into Middle Tennessee causing
sct to bkn MVFR cu field this morning and scattered showers and
storms. Cigs may bounce between VFR and MVFR at BNA/MQY through
22z before VFR conditions are established. The shower and storm
activity is scattered enough to only include Prob30 at BNA/MQY/CKV
this afternoon. The activity has been more widespread at CSV/SRB
so tempo groups were mentioned. There is a medium to high chance
MVFR cigs develop again after 09z at BNA/MQY/CKV while IFR cigs
develop at CSV/SRB. Winds will be southerly through the overnight
hours decreasing from 5-10 kts to less than 5 kts after 00z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      74  91  73  92 /  40  60  40  30
Clarksville    74  91  71  91 /  40  50  30  30
Crossville     69  83  68  84 /  60  70  40  50
Columbia       73  91  71  91 /  30  60  40  40
Cookeville     71  85  69  86 /  50  70  40  40
Jamestown      69  83  68  84 /  50  70  50  50
Lawrenceburg   72  88  71  89 /  40  60  40  40
Murfreesboro   73  91  71  92 /  40  70  40  40
Waverly        72  91  71  90 /  40  50  30  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Reagan