Bartlett, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

129
FXUS64 KMEG 211141 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
541 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 323 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Chilly conditions will persist into the weekend with freezing
temperatures possible both Friday and Saturday mornings.
By Monday, expect temperatures to warm back into the 70s with rain
chances increasing on Tuesday. A tricky forecast emerges by
midweek with multiple rounds of rainfall possible through
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Cool and dry air continues to encompass the Mid-South this
morning, with 3AM surface observations reading temperatures in the
upper 30s to mid 40s areawide. Expect afternoon highs to remain
chilly, in the low to upper 50s.

Seasonable temperatures will continue through the weekend as a
surface low pressure system, currently situated north of Lake
Eerie, ejects a reinforcing cold front to the Mid-South this
afternoon. The probability for freezing temperatures increases
overnight, with areas in west Tennessee and north Mississippi
most likely to see temperatures at or below 32 degrees. Another
cold morning is forecast on Saturday with temperatures falling to
the low 30s in the aforementioned areas. Unfortunately, the
cooler temperatures will not last long as southerly winds return
on Sunday. By Monday afternoon, expect highs to rebound to the
70s.

Beyond Monday, the forecast becomes tricky due to the potential
for several frontal passages. Most guidance has backed off on a
cold front stalling over the Mid-South on Tuesday, instead
favoring a faster moving system that brings negligible rainfall
totals. For the Wednesday into Thursday time frame, both the
ECMWF and GEFS Ensembles depict a surface low pressure system
developing near the Texas Panhandle. The exact track this low
takes varies greatly between ensemble members. As a result,
impacts to the Mid-South at this time are too hard to tell. The
most reasonable scenario: a wet Thanksgiving Day.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Gusty northwest winds will remain the primary impact today.
The boundary layer will remain partially mixed overnight, but
wind speeds should prevail at or below 10 knots.

Gust potential should be lower on Friday, as surface high pressure
over the southern plains approaches the Midsouth during the day.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB