Sturgis, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

586
FXUS63 KUNR 191930
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
130 PM MDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chance (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms from about
  2-10pm this afternoon and evening, main concern is large hail.

- Daily chances for at least isolated thunderstorms, some of which
  may be strong to severe, are expected Sunday into next week

- Seasonably warm temperatures next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Saturday)
Issued at 129 PM MDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Recent visible satellite imagery shows clearing skies over
northeastern WY into far western and southwestern SD. Low level
cloud cover stubbornly persists across much of the western SD
plains, keeping temperatures cooler (in the 60s to 70s). Narrow
corridor of 1500+ J/kg SB CAPE has developed across far
northeastern WY into far western and southwestern SD where the
clouds have cleared up and temperatures have climbed into the 80s.
Boundary associated with lee sfc trof extends from MT into
northeastern WY. A few storms have developed across North Dakota
while showers still linger across the western SD plains. Storm
development this afternoon will depend on how much we clear out in
western SD. The most recent HRRR runs still show storms
developing over northeastern WY by 22-23z and pushing across the
Black Hills into western SD by 00-04z. Effective shear approaching
40-50kt and the moderately unstable airmass will support
organized convection and rotating updrafts with hail (some
potentially 2+") being the primary concern.

Isolated storms, some strong to severe, are possible Sunday
afternoon. Warm mid-level temps and lack of appreciable forcing
will limit convection. However as a theta-E ridge noses into
western SD Sunday afternoon, a corridor of 2000+ J/kg SB CAPE will
develop with 30-40 kt 0-6km shear overhead. This will be
supportive of a conditional severe threat across western SD.

Broad upper level ridge builds into the southern to eastern half
of the CONUS by early next week with attendant low level thermal
ridge building across the central and northern plains. This will
support a general warming trend and seasonable temperatures (highs
in the 80s to 90s) across the region. The CWA will sit under
southwest flow with periodic shortwaves along the flow bringing
chances for storms, though details on timing and any potential
severe threat remain murky.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Sunday)
Issued At 1045 AM MDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Scattered TSRA, with isolated strong/severe storms containing
erratic winds and hail, will develop after 21Z and last until
06Z. Storms will move to the east northeast. IFR conditions are
expected in and near stronger storms. Additionally, IFR stratus
will develop from 11Z to 16Z from K2WX to KPHP to KICR.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Wong
AVIATION...Smith