North Sioux City, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for 4 Miles NNE Vermillion SD
National Weather Service Forecast for:
4 Miles NNE Vermillion SD
Issued by: National Weather Service Sioux Falls, SD |
Updated: 12:26 pm CDT Aug 12, 2025 |
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This Afternoon
 Sunny
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Tonight
 Mostly Clear
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Wednesday
 Sunny
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Wednesday Night
 Partly Cloudy then Chance T-storms
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Thursday
 Slight Chance T-storms and Breezy
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Thursday Night
 Slight Chance T-storms
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Friday
 Mostly Sunny
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Friday Night
 Partly Cloudy
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Saturday
 Mostly Sunny
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Hi 82 °F |
Lo 59 °F |
Hi 84 °F |
Lo 67 °F |
Hi 88 °F |
Lo 72 °F |
Hi 92 °F |
Lo 73 °F |
Hi 92 °F |
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This Afternoon
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Sunny, with a high near 82. North northwest wind around 10 mph. |
Tonight
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Mostly clear, with a low around 59. North northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. |
Wednesday
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Sunny, with a high near 84. South southeast wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. |
Wednesday Night
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A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 67. South southeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. |
Thursday
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 88. Breezy, with a south wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. |
Thursday Night
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly clear, with a low around 72. South southeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. |
Friday
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Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. |
Friday Night
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Partly cloudy, with a low around 73. |
Saturday
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Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. |
Saturday Night
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. |
Sunday
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Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. |
Sunday Night
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. |
Monday
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Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for 4 Miles NNE Vermillion SD.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
305
FXUS63 KFSD 121940
AFDFSD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
240 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a Level 2 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
Wednesday night for areas west of Highway 281 and a Level 1
of 5 risk extending to the east from near Marshall to Sioux
Falls to Vermillion. The strongest storms will be capable of
producing wind gusts to 70 mph, half-dollar size hail, and
locally heavy rain.
- High heat and humidity return Thursday through the weekend.
Afternoon heat index values could approach 100 degrees,
especially south of I-90 on Friday and Saturday.
- An active weather pattern brings low to moderate chances
(20-40 percent) for showers and thunderstorms Thursday night
through the weekend. Severe weather cannot be ruled out, but
confidence in any details is low.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025
Surface high pressure firmly in place across the region will
keep skies mostly sunny/clear through tonight. Winds will be
light and temperatures will drop into the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Will need to watch for the development of some patchy dense fog
across northwest Iowa, especially within river valleys, but it
should quickly burn off by mid-Wednesday morning.
High pressure drifts eastward Wednesday, allowing return
southerly flow to develop. As a result, expect increasing
temperatures and humidity. While there could be some lingering
morning light rain showers/storms from overnight West River
convective activity mainly west of I-29, main focus will be
Wednesday night when guidance shows a short-wave trough moving
through the broader synoptic 500 hPa ridge. 12Z model suite has
slowed this feature down, so current thinking is that the
majority of convective activity should remain west of the
forecast area through at least 7 pm and perhaps as late as 10
pm. By this time, model soundings show a modest near-surface
thermal CAP, which should keep storms elevated. In addition,
instability aloft decreases from west (around 2500 J/kg) to east
(around 1000 J/kg of less), so storms are expected to weaken
with eastward extent. The strongest storms will be capable of
producing wind gusts to 70 mph, half dollar size hail, and
locally heavy rain. This is covered well in SPCs latest Day 2
Outlook, which did introduce a Level 2 of 5 (slight) risk for
areas west of Highway 281.
Thursday into the weekend, 500 hPa ridge reasserts itself across
the southern/central Plains, resulting in increasing temperatures.
Highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s by Friday/Saturday and
dewpoints back into the 70s may result in heat index values
approaching or exceeding the 100 degree mark, especially south
of I-90. In addition, there will be periodic thunderstorm
chances (20-40 percent) as quasi-zonal flow aloft and associated
short-waves are squeezed between the ridge to the south and a
deep trough across the southern Canadian Prairies. While not
outlooked yet by SPC, some storms may become strong to severe
each day Thursday through Saturday as a southward sagging
frontal boundary looks to stall out somewhere across the region.
This idea is supported by the latest machine learning severe
probabilities. All that said, overall confidence in mesoscale
details and timing are low at this time, so will likely need to
take it a day at a time.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025
With patchy fog and smoke from earlier this morning finally to
the east of TAF airfields, expect VFR conditions through the
period. Outside of some afternoon thermal cumulus around 5000 ft
agl, skies should be mostly sunny/clear. The one potential
caveat is at KSUX, where some guidance suggests the redevelopment
of fog Wednesday morning along the Missouri River (20-50 percent
chance). Confidence not high enough at this time to include in
the 18Z TAFs, but something to monitor with future forecasts/
updates.
Winds will be light from the northwest this afternoon with some
gusts up to 20 kts at KHON/KFSD. Winds will then become light
and variable tonight, before turning to the southeast toward the
end of the forecast period.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Rogers
AVIATION...Rogers
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