Lead, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast
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NWS Forecast for 11 Miles SW Alzada MT
National Weather Service Forecast for:
11 Miles SW Alzada MT
Issued by: National Weather Service Rapid City, SD |
Updated: 1:50 pm MDT Jul 20, 2025 |
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This Afternoon
 Sunny
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Tonight
 Slight Chance T-storms then Partly Cloudy
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Monday
 Becoming Sunny
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Monday Night
 Chance T-storms
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Tuesday
 Mostly Sunny then Slight Chance T-storms
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Tuesday Night
 T-storms Likely
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Wednesday
 Slight Chance T-storms then Chance T-storms
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Wednesday Night
 T-storms Likely
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Thursday
 Sunny then Chance T-storms
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Hi 84 °F |
Lo 60 °F |
Hi 88 °F |
Lo 61 °F |
Hi 85 °F |
Lo 59 °F |
Hi 78 °F |
Lo 56 °F |
Hi 83 °F |
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Hazardous Weather Outlook
This Afternoon
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Sunny, with a high near 84. North wind around 5 mph becoming east. |
Tonight
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 11pm and midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. East wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. |
Monday
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Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 88. Southeast wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. |
Monday Night
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A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. East wind 10 to 15 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. |
Tuesday
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph. |
Tuesday Night
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Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. |
Wednesday
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A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 78. East wind 5 to 10 mph. |
Wednesday Night
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Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south after midnight. |
Thursday
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Sunny, with a high near 83. |
Thursday Night
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A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. |
Friday
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A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. |
Friday Night
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A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 59. |
Saturday
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Sunny, with a high near 89. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for 11 Miles SW Alzada MT.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
909
FXUS63 KUNR 201701
AFDUNR
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1101 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) to a sliver of slight risk (level
2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms late this afternoon/evening
- Daily chances for at least isolated thunderstorms, some of
which may be strong to severe, are expected next week
- Seasonably warm temperatures next week with sultry dew points
potentially pushing heat indices into the lower 100s over south-
central SD Monday/Tuesday
&&
.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Saturday)
Issued at 228 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025
08z surface analysis had weak low over northeastern WY, which was
along a wavering frontal boundary from ID through the ND/SD
border area. Dry line extended from low into southeast WY. Water
vapour loop had weak shortwave trough moving across eastern MT
which is rustling the elevated CAPE in place to produce transient
shra/TS early this morning. Convection is the main forecast
concern yet again.
Today/tonight, weakly rising heights behind shortwave this
morning will be replaced by weak shortwave moving across MT/ND.
This will give the northeast WY low a gentle nudge pushing dry
line into far southwest SD and supporting the development of a
diffuse warm front into eastern SD. 1-3KJ/kg mean MUCAPE develops
with 35-45kt 0-6km bulk shear, but decent SBCIN per amplifying
mid-level thermal ridge. Not much forcing to organize convection
today, which is reflected by amorphous CAM output. However,
juice/shear sufficient for isolated severe thunderstorms if
thunderstorms develop. Most likely place would be from northwest
into south-central SD where a smattering of updraft helicity
tracks are noted. SPC paints marginal (level 1 of 5) for these
areas with a sliver of slight (level 2 of 5) over the far
northeastern edge of the CWA. Best guess at timing is about 4pm-
midnight. Temperatures will be near guidance over the southwest
half and slightly below for the northeast half of the CWA per
higher dew points.
Monday, upper ridge amplifies over the MO river valley as flow
aloft turns southwest over the CWA. There is sure to be a wave
that moves through during peak heating. >3KJ/kg MUCAPE looks to be
available north/east of the Black Hills with sufficient shear for
severe thunderstorms. CAMs a bit more sure with convective
initiation over the higher terrain of WY, then moving into
moisture rich air mass over the eastern half of the CWA. Isolated
severe thunderstorms are expected with SPC marginal (level 1 of
5) risk. Temperatures should be near guidance with T/Td
combination probably (HREF 40-70% chance) pushing heat indices to
100-105F over south-central SD.
Broad upper level ridge builds into the southern to eastern half
of the CONUS for the rest of next week with attendant low level
thermal ridge building across the central/northern plains. This
will bring seasonable temperatures (80s/90s) across the region.
Southwest flow over the CWA will spew periodic shortwaves through
the area with bouts of convection, potentially severe from time-
to-time. Heat indices Tuesday could pop into the lower 100s (LREF
30-60% chance) over south-central SD. Typical late July weather.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday)
Issued At 1100 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across the
western South Dakota Plains through 09Z, mainly from K2WX-KICR
with IFR conditions, gusty erratic winds, and hail in and near
storms. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Helgeson
AVIATION...Smith
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