Box Elder, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

890
FXUS63 KUNR 050439
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1039 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Hot Sunday and Monday with a brief cool down mid week before
 another round of really hot weather next weekend

-Isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances at times as the
 region remains on the ridge periphery next week

-Elevated fire weather conditions at times, mainly across
 northeast WY and far southwest SD

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 901 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Shortwave ridging expected Sunday ahead of an approaching
shortwave trough. This will support hot conds, with dry weather.
Although some hires models mix out the cap in far NW SD in the
later afternoon with isolated showers possible there. Did not add
pops given such low chances. Upper trough will move across the
Northern Plains Sunday night, dropping a cool front into the area.
This could support a few showers and storms across far NW SD.
This boundary will stall over southern SD Monday and be the focus
for isold to sct ts in the afternoon. Another wave will kick out
of WY in the evening and support TS with gusty winds there into NW
SD overnight. The FA will remain on the northeast edge of the
ridge through the week with impulses advecting along the northern
periphery, supporting TS at times, esp across NW SD. Expect
warmer temps toward the end of the week with very hot conds by
next weekend as the ridge shifts east some, potentially
supporting temps well into the 100s by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Saturday)
Issued at 201 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Latest satellite and radar imagery (as of 2PM) shows clear to
mostly clear skies around the plains. But the Black Hills had 1
storm cell develop that produced 2 inch hail stones. It faded out
as quickly as it developed.

For the rest of this afternoon through tonight, any thunderstorms
that are able to get going will fade out quickly again. Overnight
will be dry with lows in the upper 50s to 60s.

Tomorrow, Sunday, is looking much warmer than today. Skies will
be clear to mostly clear and dry again but afternoon temps jump
into the 90s to near 100F. With the hot air, relative humidity
will dip to around 10 to 25%, lowest percentages will be in
northeast Wyoming and southwest South Dakota. Wind speeds in the
afternoon will be around 10 to 15 mph with gusts 20 to 30 mph.
With numbers like that so close to Red Flag Warning criteria, a
Fire Weather Watch has been issued for parts of the far southwest
CWA.

To start the next week, Monday and Tuesday bring back the storm
chances. While the overall pattern has an upper level high
pressure building over the desert southwest, a ridge riding low
could bring storm chances to the area. Both Monday and Tuesday
have chances for storms in the afternoon. Model data points to
there being a chance for those storms to be strong to severe,
stay tuned for updates.

A quick glance at the rest of the week, the near daily chances
for isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms continue.
Temperatures will be at or above normal with highs in the 80s to
90s, near 100 degrees are possible again late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued At 1039 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JC
DISCUSSION...GS
AVIATION...SE