Box Elder, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

056
FXUS63 KUNR 142012
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
212 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming temperatures through mid week. Generally dry, except
  chances of storms over NW South Dakota.

- Windy Monday and very windy Wednesday.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions through Wednesday.

- Better chances for storms next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Sunday)
Issued at 208 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Upper air analysis shows large upper low across Hudson Bay with
cyclonic flow extending across the eastern two thirds of the CWA.
Upper ridging is sitting across the Pac NW. H70 thermal ridge
over the western CONUS will slide eastward tonight, creeping into
the central/northern High Plains. But first, another cool night is
expected tonight as lows drop into the 40s to mid 30s. The
coldest spots again will be across the Black Hills into the NE WY
plains. Then the warming trend continues on Monday. Highs will be
in the 70s to lower 80s. A shortwave is expected to round the
backside of the upper low, crossing the northern Plains and
bringing chances of showers/storms and gusty winds. Severe weather
is not anticipated. The precip will be limited to far NW SD, but
breezy winds will develop across much of the western SD plains.
Gusts up to 40 mph are expected. The thermal ridge axis will
continue slightly more eastward by Tuesday, bringing with it temps
in the upper 70s to upper 80s. Precip chances will be a repeat of
Mondays, with chances across NW SD. Otherwise the rest of the CWA
will remain dry. Models then continue to show a vigorous
shortwave crossing the Dakotas on Wednesday. Chances for storms
will repeat over NW SD...perhaps spilling into the northern Black
Hills. The bigger impact will be the strong winds that day as a
surface low crosses the eastern Dakotas. Tight pressure gradient
could bring gusts of 50-60 mph on Wednesday. Better chances of
precip will be possible areawide next weekend

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday)
Issued At 1113 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period. Winds
in northeast WY will slowly increase through tonight into tomorrow
afternoon, as well as shift from SSW to NW.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 208 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Generally dry weather will remain for the first half of the week
along with gradually warming temperatures. Warmer, dry air
tomorrow across the northeastern WY and southwestern South Dakota
plains will lead to relative humidities below 20 percent. The dry
air will combine with northwest winds gusting up to 40 mph to
support critical fire weather conditions Monday afternoon and
early evening. Breezy conditions and low humidity are again
expected Tuesday and Wednesday, which will result in elevated to
near-critical fire weather conditions.

&&

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Monday for SDZ322-326.
WY...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Monday for WYZ317.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...Schweigert
FIRE WEATHER...13