Box Elder, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

739
FXUS63 KUNR 141135
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
435 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Mild and dry through early next week with high temperatures
 15-25F above normal

-Critical fire weather conditions possible Sunday for parts of
 the area

-Semi-active flow returns the middle of next week with chances
 for precip at times and cooler conds

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Tonight Through Friday)
Issued at 917 PM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

Semi-amplified zonal split flow will continue to bring mild and
dry weather to the region. The pattern does breakdown next week as
a deep trough pushes east into the western CONUS, supporting
cooler and semi-active flow by mid week as a mean trough
propagates slowly east into the CONUS. Expect partly to mostly
sunny skies the next two days with highs generally in the 50s and
60s, some 15 to 25 degrees above seasonal norms. The warmest day
will be Sunday, when temps will approach 70 across southern SD.
Clouds will increase by Sunday as the deep upper trough pushes
east with ample high level moisture advecting into the region,
supporting passing thick high clouds. This may limit temp
potentials some Sunday, but still quite mild given expecting
mechanical mixing. Mild weather will persist into Tues, with
cooler weather arriving by mid week as a sfc cold front slides
through the region, along with increasing chances for precip.
Precip chances will hinge on how the western CONUS trough ejects
onto the Plains. Right now, the consensus is for a splitting
trough, which would shunt the best chances for precip north and
south of the region. However, much cooler weather is on track for
the second half of the week regardless of how the trough evolves.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued At 434 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 917 PM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are possible Sunday with
elevated fire weather conditions Monday for parts of the area.
Deep mixing Sunday will drop minimum relative humidities into the
teens over parts of northeastern Wyoming into south central South
Dakota. Breezy west winds will develop in the afternoon, with
frequent gusts over 25 mph likely there as well. Hence, a fire
weather watch has been issued for Sunday. Minimum relative
humidities Monday will be in the 20s over parts of northeastern
Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota. Gusty west to southwest
winds Sunday will become southwest to southeast Monday with gusts
above 25 mph possible. Temperatures will be 15-25 degrees above
normal Sunday and Monday. A disturbance will bring increasing
chances for precipitation, which would quell the elevated fire
weather conditions.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
     for SDZ321-322-325-326-332>335.
WY...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
     for WYZ315-317.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...Dye
FIRE WEATHER...JC