Belle Fourche, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

742
FXUS63 KUNR 202027
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
227 PM MDT Fri Jun 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record to near-record high temperatures continue through
  Saturday afternoon with mostly dry conditions.

- Cold front passing through late Saturday will bring cooler
  temperatures and potentially more active weather to start next
  week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Friday)
Issued at 153 PM MDT Fri Jun 20 2025


Current Water Vapor and upper air models show upper ridge axis
now east of the forecast area, with upper low and troughing over
the PAC NW. Embedded shortwave stretches from central MT down
into WY this afternoon. Surface analysis depicts low over the
WY/SD border with boundary stretching east into SD. Temperatures
currently sit in the upper 80s to low 100s with breezy south to
southwest winds.

Dry air and strong capping will keep the majority of the forecast
area dry today. The exception being potentially northwestern SD.
Aformentioned shortwave slides northeast into ND this afternoon
and evening. Better forcing near the wave will potentially allow
storms to fire late this afternoon. Most of the action will be
north of the forecast area in North Dakota, however some CAMS show
storms clipping Harding and Perkins county. Strong shear
(50-60kts) and high CAPE (2000-2500j/Kg) will mean any storms that
do fire up will have a high severe potential.

Hot temperatures continue for Saturday, with highs in the mid 80s
to low 100s again. Models have tamed down slightly given eastward
ridge, however still borderline for head advisory, have kept the
headline in place through Saturday afternoon for south central SD.
Strong capping and dry air will once again keep us dry for
Saturday. As the upper trough moves over the Rockies, cold front
will slide through the CWA Saturday night into Sunday. Some
shra/TS may be possible overnight into Sunday morning near and
behind the boundary, though severe is not expected. Cooler
temperatures are in store for next week given the pattern change.
More unsettled weather is likely for the week as well, however
models differ on potential and timing, so will continue to monitor
as we move into next week.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Saturday)
Issued At 1107 AM MDT Fri Jun 20 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Isolated
thunderstorms may occur near the MT/ND/SD border late this
afternoon.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Saturday for SDZ046-047-049.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Dye
AVIATION...SE