West Columbia, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

508
FXUS62 KCAE 112346
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
746 PM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
as a system moves through the region. Near to below normal
temperatures expected through the weekend. An extended period of
dry conditions follows the rain today, although a rogue shower
cannot be ruled out for the eastern Midlands on Saturday
afternoon. Temperatures warm up for Monday and Tuesday with the
next chance of rain arriving late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- Deep upper trough moving through the area will continue
  showers-storms this evening.

Easily seen in the current water vapor imagery, a broad deep
upper level trough is digging southeast over the area. A series
of vort lobes swung through the base of this trough earlier this
afternoon, producing widespread hail producing storms. The last
of this series of vort lobes is digging around the base of the
trough as of 7pm, and is driving a few storms in the Upstate.
Given the weakening diurnal heating and decreasing moisture
throughout the column, this round of the shower-storms is
significantly less intense than earlier. Rain chances will
quickly evaporate after 9pm as northwest flow develops aloft
behind the trough axis and any lingering instability dissipates.


&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Below normal temperatures for the weekend.

- Low end (less than 15 percent) chance of a passing shower or
  two Saturday afternoon in the Eastern Midlands.

Upper trough will be overhead at daybreak on Saturday
sluggishly moving eastward while the upper low moves northeast.
This leaves the FA in a northwesterly flow as a cold, dry air
mass continues to filter in. Latest hi-res guidance shows
isolated shower development in the afternoon but the majority of
it lies to our northeast closer to the departing upper low. The
overall threat of any location seeing a shower on Saturday is
low, less than 15 percent. Temperatures will continue to be
below seasonal values with forecast highs in the 60s and lows in
the upper 30s to lower 40s. Upper ridging and surface high
pressure will be in control of our weather on Sunday. This will
promote sunny skies, lighter winds, and warmer temperatures than
on Saturday, albeit still near to below normal for mid-April.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- An extended period of dry conditions expected.

- Above normal temperatures expected early next week.

- Next chance of rain expected late next week.

Upper ridging at the start of the extended flattens in response
to a digging trough that passes to our north Tuesday into
Tuesday night before being replaced by a strong ridge for
Wednesday and Thursday. At the surface, high pressure will be to
our southeast on Monday promoting southwesterly flow in addition
to warmer, and likely above normal, temperatures. Tuesday is
warm and breezy ahead of a likely dry cold front. High pressure
and a reinforcing shot of cool, dry air move in behind the
boundary for Wednesday and Thursday. The next chance of rain is
expected during the tail end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR Conditions Expected Through the Period.

Shower and storm coverage continues to diminish with a loss of
instability as the sun sets. As a result, while there are
lingering clouds between 7 to 10 kft, showers and storms are
not expected to impact the terminals. Drier air will continue to
filter in tonight into tomorrow with some cumulus around 5kft
but VFR conditions expected to continue. HiRes guidance does
indicate the potential for some stratus from the north to shift
into the area which could impact OGB with lower probabilities of
reaching the Columbia and Augusta terminals. Winds out of the
NNW tomorrow, generally between 5 to 10 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Drier air returns to the region for
the weekend into next week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$