Sumter, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

058
FXUS62 KCAE 141738
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
138 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are once again possible this
afternoon. A stronger storm cannot be ruled out but widespread
severe weather is not expected and any rainfall should tend to
be lighter than what was seen earlier in the week. Precipitation
chances are low to close out the work week, with much warmer
temperatures expected. The weekend looks hot and humid with a
few afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Temperature moderation expected to continue today
- Isolated strong thunderstorms possible this evening

The main upper trough is currently passing our forecast area at
this hour, which has pushed isolated shower and storm activity
to the east of the forecast area. As the axis of this trough
continues to move east, northwest flow aloft moves overhead,
drying out somewhat. However, a weak shortwave within this flow
is expected to move over the area late this afternoon into the
evening. This shortwave could spark isolated shower or
thunderstorm activity. There is potential for a stronger storm
with large hail and/or damaging winds should storms develop as
CAPE values are forecast to reach about 2000 J/kg and bulk shear
values near 30 kts. The highest potential for a stronger storm
appears to be in the upper CSRA at this point. Temperatures are
expected to be near normal this afternoon and above average
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Warmer and dry to round out the work week.

Upper ridging will be in control of the weather across the FA
for much of the short term. The higher heights associated with
the ridge and high pressure to our south will promote warmer
temperatures both days, with Friday expected to be the hottest
day during the next seven. Southwest flow will keep the moisture
in place, meaning we should have humid conditions as well with
heat index values in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees during
peak heating on Friday. Plan accordingly if you have outdoor
activities scheduled. A mainly dry forecast is expected despite
scattered cumulus that should develop each afternoon. The one
potential exception will be Thursday evening when some of the
CAMs show a decaying MCS passing through North Carolina which
may clip our northern counties. Keeping the entire region dry
for now though. Daytime temperatures will be above normal with
highs in the mid-80s to near 90 degrees on Thursday and upper
80s to lower 90s on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Hot and humid conditions continuing into the upcoming weekend.

- Diurnally driven shower and thunderstorms chances each day.

The upper flow becomes mainly zonal this weekend before a
stronger ridge sets up to our west early next week. At the
surface, a weak cold front will approach the region on Saturday
and could provide enough lift to trigger showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon. While some of the guidance shows
the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms, the
pattern is not ideal for convection, though trends will
continue to be monitored. This boundary could stall in the area
on Sunday and into early next week, keeping daily convective
chances in the forecast though confidence is low, especially by
Monday when the CWA is under the influence of the aforementioned
ridging. While daytime temperatures are expected to peak on
Friday, above normal readings should persist through the
extended.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Generally VFR conditions expected for all terminals through the
TAF period.

Currently, the typical cumulus field is being noted across the
region. Expect this continue through the afternoon. There
remains a chance for an isolated shower or storm to develop and
affect any of the terminals through about 00z or so, but the
chances are too low (<20%) to include in the TAFs. Overnight
mid to high level cloud cover is anticipated, reducing the
threat for stratus or fog. That said, the typical nuisance fog
at AGS cannot be completely ruled out. Southwest winds between
5-10 kts are expected this afternoon, with a few gusts around 15
kts or so possible. Winds to become light and variable
overnight, before becoming southwest again after about 13z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Rain chances finally decrease
tonight with a return to fairly typical summer cumulus.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Recent heavy rainfall has produced widespread amounts of 3
inches over many of the river basins, with amounts of up to 6-7
inches in some locations. A Flood Advisory continues along the
Congaree in Columbia. River flooding continues across the area
as a result, with the Congaree at Eastman and Gadsen in flood,
the Saluda River at Chappells in flood, and the Edisto at
Orangeburg in flood. With the North and South Forks of the
Edisto River running high, did also issue a Flood Warning for
the Edisto into Branchville. Rivers are generally expected to
peak today or tomorrow before slowly falling back below flood
stage late this week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$