St. Andrews, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

848
FXUS62 KCAE 150004
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
804 PM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy conditions expected through Tuesday as a dry cold front
moves through the region. High pressure moves back in for the
second half of the week into early next weekend, leading to a
prolonged dry period with warmer temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- Breezy through the night.

Surface low pressure passing to the north has allowed for a
tight pressure gradient and breezy conditions over the eastern
US. Warm, moist advection ahead of a trailing cold front is
working to increase dewpoints over the forecast area. Gusts
around 20-25 mph should diminish through the evening but
sustained winds around 10 mph should continue through much of
the night. The well-mixed boundary layer and higher dewpoints
will help to keep lows mild, around 60 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Cold front passage looks to be dry but will brings gusty winds
  Tuesday.

- Cooler and dry for Wednesday.

An upper trough and associated cold front are expected to move
across the region on Tuesday. As the front moves through, gusty
winds are expected to develop with some wind gusts up to 30 mph
during the day. Model time sections indicate breezy conditions
across the Midlands/CSRA on Tuesday, but not quite enough to
reach Lake Wind Advisory criteria. Winds will start from the
southwest in the morning and shift rapidly behind the front by
late morning to the northwest. The air mass with this system is
very dry. PWATS will start around 1 inch or so Tuesday morning
then lower to less than one half inch behind the front. With
this dry air, it is unlikely that we`ll see any rain with the
front. Behind the front, high pressure settle in from the
central plains in to the southeast and eastern portion of the
country for Wednesday through Wednesday night. This will allow
for below normal temperatures for the area along with seasonably
cool morning on Wednesday. Expect highs in the mid 70s to near
80 on Tuesday then lower on Wednesday with highs in the upper
60s north to lower 70s elsewhere. Morning lows will be in the
middle 40s Wednesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- An extended period of dry conditions likely.

High pressure will work eastward off the coast but still hold on
across the southeastern portion of the country through the
weekend. Upper level riding and high pressure will lead to dry
and warm temperatures through the period. In addition, upper
ridging builds over the region, allowing for a warming trend.
Guidance continues to indicate a good chance of highs several
degrees above average by the weekend with temperatures in the
80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions continue before breezy winds occur Tuesday with
a cold front moving through. Brief MVFR ceilings could be
possible at AGS/DNL Tuesday morning.

Southwesterly winds are diminishing this evening to near 10 kts
with isolated gusts to 15-20 kts being seen. There is also a
thin region of cirrus moving into the upstate and thus a few
passing high clouds will be possible at all terminals into the
early overnight. Near 10 kt southwesterly winds will continue
into the overnight as a strong 40 kt low level jet moves in
place across the region. This is forecasted to be strongest in
the upstate and over CAE/CUB after 3-4z but guidance suggests
surface winds will lighten enough at OGB/DNL/AGS after 5-6z that
adding mention of LLWS would be warranted and thus I have added
this to the TAF at these terminals.

As a cold front approaches Tuesday morning, southwest to west
surface winds increase to 10-15 kts with gusts to 20-30 kts
expected through the afternoon and toward the end of the TAF
period before lightening overnight Tuesday as winds turn out of
the west to west-northwest. Moisture increases ahead of the
front Tuesday morning and model guidance has been hinting at
some mid and low level clouds developing from 12-17z with its
passage, mainly at AGS/DNL. Probabilities for MVFR ceilings here
are around 30-40% and based on forecast soundings, I have added
mention of SCT low level clouds, but confidence in MVFR ceiling
restrictions are too low to add at this time.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions are expected into
the extended period at this time with no notable systems
expected.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$