Spartanburg, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

659
FXUS62 KGSP 031748
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1248 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably cold air remains in place through tonight before a
brief warm-up mid-week.  The next cold front crosses our region
Thursday dropping temperatures again to well below normal to start
the weekend. A wetter weather pattern is possible by the middle of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1159 AM EST Tuesday: Lingering stratocu is in place across
the NC-TN border, some of it fairly low to the ground, but
continued flurries should be almost entirely gone at this point.
Temperatures are on the rise everywhere, after a slow start to
warming this morning.  Expect an unseasonably cold day, with max
temps around 15 degrees below climo at most locations.

Otherwise, with the surface pressure gradient relaxing tonight, as
the center of dry surface high pressure settles over the southern
Appalachians, ideal radiational cooling conditions are expected,
and min temps of 15-20 degrees below normal should result.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

1) Quick warm-up before another cold front on crosses the area on
Thursday.

2) Any precipitation chances confined to the mountains with the
front.

As of 210 AM Tuesday: Continuing into the short term with a similar
setup that`s been persisting for a while. The CWA remains stuck
underneath NW flow aloft and dry high pressure near the surface. Dry
conditions are expected for most of the short term. Meanwhile,
another area of low pressure develops across the Great Lakes region
and looks to dip southward, bringing a cold front across the area.
Guidance is trending drier with this front as QPF response is
limited. This is due mainly to decreased time for moisture to return
ahead of the front on Wednesday night. Given the cold air still in
place, very light snow accumulations could be possible along the
NC/TN border with the NW flow. Therefore, slight chance (15%-25%)
PoP for frozen precipitation in the mountains Wednesday night. Once
the front passes, yet another continental polar air mass spills in
behind and shunts off any precip chances again. Temperatures look to
have a quick and small warm up on Thursday before cold air
infiltrates.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages

1) Mostly dry conditions with low chances for rain.

2) Temperatures start to warm up by the weekend.

As of 215 AM Tuesday: Picking up on Friday, the strong area of low
pressure up north and accompanying trough start to slide off the NE
shoreline. High pressure near the surface also makes and eastward
exit. Out west, long term guidance develops a split trough and area
of low pressure across the desert SW. Guidance also takes a nose
dive on agreement of exactly where this low ejects and diverges on
how it even affects the CWA. By the end of the weekend, moisture
looks to return when surface flow finally turns more southerly. Some
guidance trends on the wetter side, but is too far out to pinpoint.
If there is a chance for precipitation, temperatures rebound above
freezing and are trending warmer as well, especially outside the
mountains. Rain chances do start to increase (40%-50%) by Monday.
However, it`s at the end of the forecast period and will change.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions on tap today and tonight as
high pressure builds into the area.  Lingering MVFR stratocu is
in the process of breaking up at KAVL, and a few lingering gusts
may continue the next few hours across the Piedmont...but generally
think that waning flow aloft will reduce the odds of any more gusts.
Expect the present N wind to go light and variable overnight, then
pick up out of the SW Wednesday morning - notably, the timing of
this is slightly earlier in the new TAFs than in the earlier 12z
TAFs, in keeping with model trends.  By late Wednesday, expect
the onset of some stronger SW winds and at least some FEW cirrus,
as a frontal zone approaches from the west.

Outlook: Expect a weak cold front to cross the area on Thursday,
bringing light precip and restrictions to the mountain terminals.
Gusty winds can be expected at most locations, but KAVL and KHKY
will be most affected.  Dry high pressure will return later Thursday
and linger through Saturday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL/MPR
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...MPR