North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

228
FXUS62 KCHS 010603
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
103 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for the entire SC
Lowcountry and SE Georgia through 9 AM Sunday morning. The
Aviation Section was updated to reflect the 06Z TAF issuance. A
Small Craft Advisory was issued for all waters Monday into
Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Dense fog is expected tonight and into early Sunday morning
  across the SC Lowcountry and SE Georgia. A Dense Fog Advisory
  is in effect until 9 AM.

- 2) Notable temperature swings through Wednesday.

- 3) Warm temperatures and chances of rain for late next week
  into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dense fog is expected tonight and into early
Sunday morning across the SC Lowcountry and SE Georgia. A Dense
Fog Advisory is in effect until 9 AM.

Observations and webcams show that dense fog is developing
across the forecast area, with several sites reporting vsbys of
1/4 mi along and west of I-95. While the most favorable
conditions for dense fog remain west of I-95, the Dense Fog
Advisory in effect covers the whole forecast area. GOES
Satellite shows that there is still a stubborn pocket of low
stratus clouds lingering over the Charleston Tri- County region,
but as the stratus erodes fog is expected to develop. Guidance
continues to indicate that the fog will become dense across the
region and linger into the morning hours.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Notable temperature swings through Wednesday.

A dry cold front will move south through our area tonight, followed
by high pressure wedging in from the north. A building ridge aloft
Tuesday into Wednesday will then make for a drastic warm up. This
will cause quite a swing in temperatures over the coming days.
Temperatures are progged to rise well above normal today, into the
mid 70s for most locations (except cooler at the beaches), then
remaining a few degrees above normal tonight. The wedge pattern will
lead to a drastic temperature gradient across the forecast area on
Monday, becoming much cooler for most locations. Highs will range
from the mid 50s near the Santee River, to the low 70s near the
Altamaha River. Low temperatures on Monday night should be within a
few degrees of normal. High temperatures will then rise back above
normal on Tuesday, ranging from the lower to middle 70s away from
the beaches. The warming trend continues on Wednesday with highs
ranging from the mid to upper 70s across most of our area (except
cooler at the beaches), and possibly the lower 80s across portions
of inland GA south of I-16.


KEY MESSAGE 3: Warm temperatures and chances of rain for late
next week into the weekend.

The region will be under the influence of high pressure, both at the
surface and aloft, centered offshore late next week into the
weekend. This will set the stage for warming temperatures to
continue. There is a fairly small spread in max temperature
guidance, with upper 70s to even low 80s likely in most locations
away from the immediate coast. Early March normals are in the upper
60s, so these values would be around 10 degrees above normal. Lows
will also trend on the mild side, in the upper 50s to around 60
degrees.

Deeper moisture will return to the area with ensemble means
indicating PWats climbing to around 1.2", which falls in the 85-90th
percentile of climo. While larger scale forcing is lacking, moisture
and some instability could lead to isolated to scattered diurnally
driven showers developing, especially in the afternoons and into the
early evening. NBM indicates only a 10-20% chance for >0.25" of rain
in any 24 hour period during this time frame. Severe and flooding
risk looks minimal at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The 06Z TAF period will initialize with IFR at KCHS/KJZI and
MVFR at KSAV. Dense fog is expected to impact the KSAV terminal
tonight, with lower confidence on any impacts to KCHS/KJZI
given the lingering low cigs. Both vsby and cig restrictions
will linger into the early morning hours, with VFR returning by
noontime Sunday at all terminals.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Gusty northeast winds are possible at the
terminals Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Dense fog may make a run for the Charleston Harbor early Sunday
and a Marine Dense Fog Advisory may eventually be needed.

High pressure will wedge in from the northeast early Monday,
pinching the gradient across the waters. Small Craft Advisories have
been introduced for all marine zones, including the Charleston
Harbor, for gusts 25 to 30 kt and building seas of 6 ft or greater.
Wind speeds will begin to weaken late Monday night, though seas will
be slower to subside. Small Craft Advisories will expire for the
nearshore waters within 20 nm first on Tuesday, and then the GA
waters beyond 20 nm on Wednesday.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ040-
     042>045-047>052.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ330-354.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 1 PM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ352.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 4 PM EST Wednesday
     for AMZ374.

&&

$$

BRS/CPM