North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

649
FXUS62 KCHS 271058
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
658 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Aviation section was updated for the 12z TAF issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Hot and humid conditions will occur this weekend, with
  Sunday temperatures near 100 degrees in some locations. Heat
  Advisories could be needed, especially Sunday.

- 2) Temperatures will decrease to near normal for the middle
  of next week, then the heat returns for the end of next week.
  Rainfall chances gradually decrease throughout next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Hot and humid conditions will occur this
weekend, with Sunday temperatures near 100 degrees in some
locations. Heat Advisories could be needed, especially Sunday.

Upper level ridging along the Gulf Coast will gradually build
northward across the Deep South and MS Valley through Sunday. At
the surface, subtropical high pressure will mostly drive the
pattern with daily southwest flow giving way to the sea breeze
in the afternoon and evening. Model consensus supports mid 90s
for high temperatures today, followed by mid to upper 90s (and
right around 100 in some locations) for Sunday. The slightly
higher values on Sunday will be aided by surface winds taking on
a bit more of a westerly component and pinning the sea breeze
closer to the coast for a bit longer in the day. Perhaps the
bigger and more important question revolves around dewpoints and
the resulting heat index values. Dewpoints in the low to mid
70s, and upper 70s along the coast, will be sufficient to
produce widespread coverage of 100-105 degree heat indices
Saturday with values up to around 108 along the coast. Sunday
continues to look like the better chances of seeing a tier of
108-112 degree heat indices, still primarily along the coast
where dewpoints will be highest. So for now, no Heat Advisories
today but a better chance coming on Sunday.

As forecast, Sunday`s highs will likely approach daily records.
Also of note, this period of hot conditions will also come with
well above normal overnight temperatures as much of the area
will only fall into the mid to upper 70s each morning. This will
bring into play daily record high minimum temperatures as well.
For record details, see the Climate section below.

Of course, thunderstorms could be a complicating factor each
afternoon. However, most model solutions only support isolated
coverage both days. As is typical for summer, it isn`t out of
the question to have one or two marginally severe storms
especially where boundary collisions occur.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Temperatures will decrease to near normal for
the middle of next week, then the heat returns for the end of
next week. Rainfall chances gradually decrease throughout next
week.

Strong ridging will persist over the eastern half of the
country, with a roughly 596 dam 500 mb High over the TN Valley
on Tuesday, shifting to our north on Wednesday. This will cause
slightly lower heights overhead, along with slightly lower 850
mb temperatures. The result will be high temperatures near
normal Tuesday and Wednesday, generally the lower 90s.

Ridging continues to shift towards the East Coast towards the
end of next week, with a large dome of hot temperatures
expanding and following it. This will cause temperatures to
again rise above normal. Highs should again be in the mid to
upper 90s for the end of next week. Combined with dew points in
the 70s, and we could have heat indices well into the 100s
across portions of our area. So we may need Heat Advisories for
portions of our area the towards the end of next week.

The changing location of the ridge next week will cause
rainfall chances to gradually decrease throughout next week. Any
convection this time of year will still have the potential to
be strong to borderline severe, along with having locally heavy
rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The 12z TAF period begins with VFR conditions at KCHS, KJZI,
and KSAV. Overall, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period at all 3 sites with no significant concerns
for flight restrictions. The one potential issue continues to be
afternoon thunderstorms. The best chance should be around KSAV,
but even that currently looks too low to include in the TAF and
will be handled with amendments if needed.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are
possible due to showers and thunderstorms, mainly each afternoon
through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and tonight: A pretty typical summertime pattern will
persist across the local waters. Southwest flow will prevail for
the most part, with winds turning more southerly along the
land/sea interface this afternoon and evening with the sea
breeze. Winds early this morning will be a bit stronger in a
nocturnal surge and a few gusts to 25 knots will be possible in
the Charleston County waters. Gusts this afternoon and evening
should mostly be around 20 knots, continuing into the overnight.
Seas should mostly average 2-3 feet, except up to 4 feet in the
Charleston County waters.

Sunday: Surface High pressure over the Atlantic will cause
backing of the winds during the afternoon. The highest winds
will be along the land/sea interface with the formation of the
sea breeze. Gusts to 20 or briefly 25 kt will be possible,
especially as the sea breeze crosses through the Charleston
Harbor. At night, winds will veer and gradually ease.

Monday through Wednesday: Expect weak winds on Monday as a
prefrontal trough moves into our area. Winds then shift to the
NE by early Tuesday, where they`ll prevail into Wednesday.

Rip Currents: Gusty winds with the afternoon sea breeze and a
2-3 ft swell at 8-9 seconds will generate a Moderate Risk of rip
currents at all of our beaches this weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

June 28:
KCHS: 99/1998
KSAV: 100/1998

July 3:
KCHS: 98/2019

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 27:
KCHS: 77/2015

June 28:
KCHS: 78/2013
KCXM: 81/1998

June 29:
KCHS: 79/1977

July 1:
KCHS: 77/2024

July 3:
KCHS: 78/2016

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$