North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

986
FXUS62 KCHS 012313
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
613 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail through Friday. A low pressure
system will move through on Saturday, followed by more high
pressure next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through Sunset: Occasional breezy westerly winds will quickly
ease before sunset.

Tonight: The mid-levels will consist of northwesterly flow
overhead this evening, transitioning more towards the west
northwest overnight. At the surface, High pressure will be
centered roughly over the northeastern Gulf. Meanwhile, very
weak surface troughing should form across portions of the
Southeast overnight. Dry conditions will persist. Though, high
clouds will increase, especially late. Lows will range from the
mid 30s far inland to the mid 40s at/near the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Aloft, the weekend starts off with a zonal flow across the
Southeast well in advance of a shortwave trough digging across
the Central Plains along the leading edge of a large ridge
placed across the Western United States. The shortwave will help
develop a low pressure system across the South Central United
States on Friday, which quickly advances east across the Deep
South late Friday into Saturday. Ahead of the this feature, the
sfc pattern features low pressure across the Mid-
Atlantic/Northeast states and high pressure to the south on
Friday, placing a southwest wind across the local area and
resulting in Friday afternoon highs a few degrees warmer than
the previous day (highs in the low-mid 60s). Likewise, Friday
night temps remain more mild as the area becomes solidly warm-
sectored in advance of the low pressure system, leading to lows
in the mid-upper 40s inland to low-mid 50s near the coast.

On Saturday, the area remains warm-sectored within a south-
southwest sfc flow as a low pressure system advances east across
the Deep South and toward the Southeast. Precip chances
increase from west to east early morning while temps warm into
the mid 60s across Southeast South Carolina and upper 60s/around
70 across Southeast Georgia. This could pose a strong shear/low
CAPE setup locally during the day, with the potential for some
thunderstorms to become strong and/or severe as the system
passes by. Severe weather chances appear higher across Southeast
Georgia where breaks in clouds are more likely, which results
in warmer sfc temps and larger SBCAPE during peak diurnal
heating hours. The Storm Prediction Center has also placed
Southeast Georgia in a Marginal Risk for severe weather.
Regardless of severe weather potential, rainfall accumulations
in the 1/2 to 3/4 inch range are anticipated across the area
during a 24-hr span starting just prior to daybreak Saturday
morning. A few locations could see locally higher amounts during
thunderstorms, prior to dry and cooler high pressure arriving
Saturday night. Saturday night lows should dip into the low-mid
40s once the low pressure system shifts offshore.

Weather conditions are expected to be much more quiet on Sunday
as dry high pressure spreads across the region in wake of low
pressure shifting further offshore. Expect dry conditions across
land areas by around daybreak while cold air advection within a
northerly sfc wind leads to noticeably cooler temps Sunday
afternoon. In general, high temps should range in the mid-upper
50s across Southeast South Carolina and around 60 across
Southeast Georgia.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will spread across the region late weekend and
become centered across the Southeast early next week, setting up
dry conditions, but modifying temps locally as light
southwesterly winds prevail under sunny/mostly sunny skies. In
general, high temps should range in the low-mid 60s Monday, then
upper 60s/around 70 Tuesday, then lower 70s for most areas away
from the beaches on Wednesday. Overnight lows will also trend
warmer, starting in the mid-upper 30s inland to low-mid 40s near
coastal areas Sunday night and Monday night, then upper
40s/lower 50s Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z TAFs: VFR. Winds will diminish quickly this evening with
nightfall, going light and variable. West winds will increase
again around noon Friday, generally around 10 knots.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected at
CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through Friday. Flight restrictions are
anticipated Saturday into early Sunday due to showers/thunderstorms
associated with a passing low pressure system. VFR conditions should
then return Sunday afternoon and prevail through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunset: Winds and seas are trending lower across the
Charleston County coastal waters, so the Small Craft Advisory
has expired.

Tonight: High pressure will be centered roughly over the
northeastern Gulf, while very weak surface troughing should be
located across portions of the Southeast. Expect a westerly
moderate breeze to persist. Seas should average 2 ft within 20
nm and 2-3 ft for the GA waters beyond 20 nm.

Friday through Monday: A zonal flow will be in place to start
off the weekend with sfc winds primarily offshore, but the
approach of a low pressure system across the Deep South will
favor a more southerly flow across local waters as the region
becomes warm- sectored by late day Friday. The pressure gradient
will tighten as the low pressure system approaches Saturday,
then will be followed by strong cold air advection in its wake
Saturday evening into Sunday, setting up the stage for
increasing wind speeds and building seas. Small Craft Advisories
will likely be needed for a portion of coastal waters Saturday
into Sunday as a result, with greatest potential for 25 kt wind
gusts and seas up to 5-7 ft across outer Georgia waters and
nearshore waters off the Charleston County Coast. Conditions
will then improve by late Sunday morning as dry high pressure
presses into the region through early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The morning high tide cycle will rise above 6 feet MLLW on
Friday, remaining elevated through the weekend. Wind directions
remain unfavorable for high tidal departures early weekend, but
conditions will need to be watched closely for minor coastal
flooding across Charleston County Saturday morning due to
rainfall associated with a passing low pressure system. On
Sunday, sfc winds turn more north- northeast during the morning,
likely leading to greater tidal departures. Although rain
likely ends before the high tide cycle, minor coastal flooding
is currently predicted in the Charleston Harbor. A Coastal Flood
Advisory could eventually be needed Sunday morning.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...CPM/DPB
MARINE...DPB