North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

802
FXUS62 KCHS 041827
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
127 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Key Message 1 has been introduced for fog potential tonight. Minor
changes to Key Message 2 have been made for warming weather through
early next week. The Aviation Section has been updated for the 18Z
TAF issuance. The Marine Section has been updated to include sea fog
potential tonight into late week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Areas to widespread fog anticipated across much of the
  Southeast South Carolina and Southeast Georgia tonight into
  Thursday morning.

- 2) Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected through early
  next week with increasing rain chances beginning this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Areas to widespread fog anticipated across much of
the Southeast South Carolina and Southeast Georgia tonight into
Thursday morning.

The region will remain along the western periphery of high pressure
extending across the Atlantic today through Thursday morning,
setting up the stage for an inversion to develop quickly this
evening, then persisting through a few hours after daybreak. The
pattern will be quite similar to the previous night with sfc winds
that decouple early evening, light 1000 mb geostrophic winds from
the south and a bulk of guidance indicating favorable condensation
pressure deficits as well as sfc dewpts in the upper 50s during the
second half of the night through daybreak. Given the setup, another
round of areas to widespread fog is possible, with many areas
potentially experiencing dense fog a few hours prior to and post
daybreak until the inversion breaks mid-late Thursday morning.
Latest HREF guidance indicates a 40-60% of vsbys reduced to 1/4 mile
(dense fog) across parts of Southeast South Carolina and Southeast
Georgia late night/around daybreak Thursday. Special Weather
Statements and/or Dense Fog Advisories could eventually be needed

KEY MESSAGE 2: Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected through
early next week with increasing rain chances beginning this weekend.

The forecast area will remain west of strong H5 ridge from Thursday
through Wednesday. In fact, NAEFS indicates that mid-level ridge
will generally remain two units of standard anomaly through the
period. At the sfc, high pressure centered over the western Atlantic
will provide the region with steady ESE winds, supporting mild llvl
thicknesses across the forecast area. Temperatures on Thursday
through Saturday will peak in the upper 70s to mid 80s across SE GA
and the SC Lowcountry. Sunday through Wednesday, highs will favor
values in the low to mid 80s, with upper 80s possible across SE GA
on Sunday and Monday.

Conditions are forecast to remain dry on Thursday and Friday.
Generally, diurnal isolated to scattered showers, with occasional
thunderstorms, expected from Saturday through Wednesday. Given ESE
winds and unseasonably warm temperatures, convection may initiate or
focus along afternoon and evening sea breezes. No severe weather
expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through at
least 00Z this evening. Guidance suggests MVFR conditions returning
at all terminals by 06Z Thursday, possibly a few hours earlier, then
continuing to deteriorate to IFR/LIFR by around 09Z Thursday due to
low clouds and/or fog. IFR conditions should then prevail at all
terminals until the inversion breaks around 14Z Thursday. VFR
conditions quickly return thereafter and persist through 18Z Thursday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Restrictive ceilings are possible
overnight into the early morning hours each night through late week
due to low stratus/fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and Tonight: High pressure will remain the dominant weather
feature across local waters, extending across the western Atlantic
through Thursday morning. Winds/seas are expected to remain below
Small Craft Advisory levels, with sfc winds becoming more onshore
around 10 kt or less and seas generally in the 2-4 ft range
nearshore to 4-5 ft across offshore Georgia waters. The main issue
should arrive during overnight hours, when the risk for sea fog
returns as upper 50/lower 60 dewpts result across local waters while
1000 mb geostrophic winds are light from the south and southeast sfc
winds remain light through the night. Dense Fog Advisories could
eventually be needed over a portion of local waters overnight into
early morning hours Thursday.

High pressure will remain centered over the western Atlantic through
the weekend. Winds should favor a ESE direction Thursday through
Saturday, with speeds 10 kts or less. Winds may shift from the south
by Sunday. Both winds and seas are expected to stay below Small
Craft Advisory levels.

Sea fog will continue be a recurring concern this week as warm,
moist air moves over the cooler shelf waters. Periods of fog may
redevelop frequently and could persist through the weekend. The fog
could become dense at times, reducing visibility for mariners.
Additional Marine Dense Fog Advisories could be needed in the coming
days. Winds are then forecast to shift out of the south/southwest by
early next week, which could prolong the sea fog threat into that
period.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DPB/NED