North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

095
FXUS62 KCHS 180642
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
242 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected to
  continue through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue through the weekend.

Today: Fairly quiet weather conditions should continue through the
morning as the initial disturbance exits and weak ridging briefly
develops aloft. Clear skies combined with strengthening
southwesterly flow will yield afternoon temperatures in the low to
mid 90s. This should support moderate instability by the afternoon,
particularly across southeast Georgia and locations west of the I-95
corridor.

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will likely begin on
late Thursday afternoon/evening as anomalously high moisture from
the remnant circulation associated with Arthur moves northeastward
across central Georgia toward the South Carolina Midlands and
Upstate. 00Z.HREF indicates that initial development should be
favored across central and southeast Georgia late Thursday
afternoon/evening, with showers and thunderstorms spreading towards
the South Carolina Lowcountry overnight into Friday morning.
Forecast soundings indicate increasing (roughly 30-40 knots) values
of deep layer shear this evening into overnight as the remnant
circulation passes nearby. Low-lvl winds could also become locally
backed east, or northeast, of the remnant circulation overnight.
This would increase low-lvl shear and briefly enhance the tornado
potential, especially across the interior southeast Georgia
overnight.

However, instability will be the primary limiting factor overnight
as SBCAPE values remain well below 1000 J/kg. Nevertheless, the
combination of tropical moisture, relatively strong flow, and
organized storm motions will support a risk for damaging wind gusts.
Also, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out, particularly with
isolated storms developing near the remnant circulation. Thus, SPC
has highlighted the entire region in a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5)
today for severe weather. Localized flooding of poor-drainage and
low-lying areas will be also be possible, especially where storms
repeatedly track over the same locations.

Friday: The remnant circulation should shift away from the region in
the morning, and attention will turn towards the cold front settling
southward towards the region. Assuming sufficient recovery behind
the overnight convection, strong surface heating and surface
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s could produce a moderately unstable
afternoon environment. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop
along the aforementioned cold front and residual outflow boundaries.
The primary hazard will again be damaging wind gusts. The front
should slowly pass through the region overnight.

Saturday and Sunday: The aforementioned front should slide offshore
on Saturday morning as a few showers and thunderstorms linger near
the coastline. Thereafter, the typical summertime pattern will
dominate the forecast as the daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms initiating along the afternoon seabreeze return.
However, it`s important to note that coverage should be much less
than Thursday and Friday. Otherwise, afternoon highs will warm into
the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Prevailing VFR conditions through 06Z Friday. Gusty SW winds
developing this morning and continuing through the afternoon.
Showers or tstms could move through the terminals this afternoon
but confidence is quite low on timing, coverage, and location.
Current indications are that the chance is greater across
southeast GA. Greater coverage of showers is expected tonight,
but the brunt of the activity should remain west of the
terminals through at least 06Z.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions should largely prevail
through the weekend, with brief periods of flight restrictions
possible with any showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain off the coast while the remnants of
TS Arthur move through the SC Midlands into eastern NC later
tonight. A tightening SW gradient will occur over our waters,
with the strongest winds after midnight tonight through Friday
afternoon. We have Small Craft Advisories for all waters except
SC offshore.

Marine conditions will subside Saturday with no additional
concerns through the weekend. Another front could approach the
area on Monday, potentially leading to increasing winds and
seas.

Rip Currents: Increasing swells and gusty winds will lead to a
Moderate risk for rip currents at Charleston County beaches
Friday.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 PM EDT Friday
     for AMZ340.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
     Friday for AMZ360.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Friday
     for AMZ362.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM EDT Friday for AMZ364.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ384.

&&

$$

Dennis/JRL