North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

110
FXUS62 KCHS 242201
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
601 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Key Message 1 was updated and the Aviation section was updated
for the 00z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday.

- 2) Unsettled weather with the potential for locally heavy
  rainfall continues mid to late this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
Tuesday.

On Tuesday, conditions should change very little from today.
However, the weak boundary inland should make some progress
closer to the coast. This boundary in addition to the sea breeze
may increase llvl moisture convergence, especially across SE
GA. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop during
the heat of the afternoon. Given similar thermal profiles on
Tuesday, one or two severe thunderstorms are possible.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Unsettled weather with the potential for locally
heavy rainfall continues mid to late this week.

The mid-levels will consist of troughing over the eastern half
of the U.S. midweek, followed by it shifting over the East Coast
by the end of the week. Additionally, a series of shortwaves
embedded within the trough will pass over our region. At the
surface, a stationary front will be spread across or in the
vicinity of our area mid to late this week. There will be deeper
moisture along and south of the front, with PWATs ~2". These
values are above normal for this time of year. The combination
of regional and mesoscale lift along with the moisture will
generate rounds of convection each afternoon and evening mid to
late this week. The models are generally in good agreement on
the convective coverage. But the day to day timing and locations
of the stronger convection will need to be refined with future
forecasts. The threat for widespread and organized severe
thunderstorms looks low. But since it`s summer, we cannot rule
out stronger to marginally severe storms each day with damaging
winds. But the main concern appears to be the heavy rainfall
potential. If the storms are slow moving, train, or backbuild,
then quite a bit of rain could fall, which could lead to
localized flooding. WPC is highlighting our area in the ERO to
account for this. Once again, the details will need to be
refined with future forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
25/00z TAFs:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: The risk for tstm impacts has ended at all
terminals. The risk will increase again by early afternoon and
peak mid-late afternoon at all terminals. TEMPO groups for MVFR
conditions in TSRA were included from roughly 18-21z at KSAV and
19-22z at KCHS/KJZI as this is when confidence is highest for
impacts. Refinements in timing/intensity will be needed in later
TAF cycles.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms could bring
brief flight restrictions each afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: The pressure pattern will generally support southwest winds
between 10 to 15 kts across the marine zones. Wave heights are
forecast to remain between 2 to 3 ft.

Tuesday through Saturday: South to southwest winds will persist
through the period. Conditions will remain below Small Craft
Advisory levels, with winds averaging 15 knots or less and seas
2 to 3 feet. Any showers or thunderstorms that move over the
waters have the potential to bring higher wind gusts and
frequent lightning.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$