North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

208
FXUS62 KCHS 141327
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
927 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Aviation Section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Scattered thunderstorms expected Sunday with an isolated
 severe threat possible.

- 2) A strong cold front will pass through southeast GA and
 southeast SC on Monday bringing the potential for severe
 thunderstorms, very gusty winds outside of storms, and brief
 periods of moderate to heavy rainfall.

- 3) Frost/freeze is possible Monday night and Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered thunderstorms expected Sunday with an
isolated severe threat possible.

Beginning Sunday morning, the surface pattern will feature high
pressure wedged in across GA and the Carolinas with a
sharpening coastal trough offshore. The trough is expected to
lift northward and through southeast GA/SC as a warm front
feature in the morning. As it does, a surge of low-level ThetaE
air is anticipated which will bring an environment supportive of
at least scattered coverage of thunderstorms. The near storm
environment is interesting with the warm front in the vicinity,
potentially MLCAPE values in excess of 1,000 J/kg, and ~30 kt of
deep layer shear. Model soundings even show some decently
veering profiles as well. All of this to say that there is
potential for an isolated severe thunderstorm threat in the
afternoon hours in the wake of the warm front. While the Sunday
environment lacks the overall magnitude of the Monday
environment (discussed in Key Message 2), it will bear watching
as a sneaky severe threat.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A strong cold front will pass through southeast
GA and southeast SC on Monday bringing the potential for severe
thunderstorms, very gusty winds outside of storms, and brief
periods of moderate to heavy rainfall.

A strong cold front is expected to move through southeast GA
and southeast SC beginning late Monday morning and shifting off
the coast by mid afternoon Monday. The front will bring a
multitude of hazards to the region.

Severe Thunderstorms: A powerful mid-level trough and closed
upper low is expected to shift east of the Mississippi on
Monday, pushing a strong cold front through the forecast area.
Monday should begin with some discreet convection well in
advance of the cold front, followed by linear convection along
the front. The ambient wind field looks to be quiet impressive
and will provide plentiful shear across the 6 km (~50 kt) and 3
km (~40 kt) depths. The forecast area should be positioned well
within the warm sector with temperatures warming into the mid to
upper 70s and dew points rising into the upper 60s, yielding
MLCAPE likely in excess of 1,000 J/kg. Model soundings suggest
that winds will mostly be unidirectional despite the overall
magnitude of shear, but a tornado threat will still be present
both within any initial discreet convection as well as with the
main line. Timing is still being refined, but the front should
enter interior southeast GA by late morning/midday, then push
off the coast by the mid afternoon. Damaging wind gusts are
certainly the primary threat, followed by an isolated tornado,
and with any hail threat certainly being a distant third.

Gusty Winds: As the strengthening wind field spreads across the
area ahead of the front beginning Monday morning, mixing
profiles will deepen and yield an environment capable of strong
non-thunderstorm wind gusts through the morning and into the
afternoon. A corridor of wind gusts of 35+ mph is possible
across the area. A Lake Wind Advisory will almost certainly be
needed, and there is even the possibility of needing a Wind
Advisory for at least portions of the area.

Rainfall: Precipitable water values are forecast to rise into
the 1.2-1.4" range ahead of the approaching front which would be
in excess of the 90th percentile according to the CHS SPC
Sounding Climatology for 3/16. Rainfall rates within convection
will certainly be intense, but the good news is that storms
should be moving quickly which should reduce the overall threat
of excessive rainfall. The forecast is for general amounts of
0.5-1.0", with probabilistic data supporting a 30-40% chance of
amounts in excess of an inch. So, as of now the risk of intense
rainfall producing flooding isn`t particularly notable.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Frost/freeze is possible Monday night and
Tuesday night.

Cold high pressure will build over the area Monday night
through the middle of next week. An advection freeze is possible
Monday night, mainly over inland portions of southeast GA and
SC where temps could dip into the lower 30s for a couple hours
Monday night into Tuesday morning. By Tuesday night, cold high
pressure will settle over the area, allowing winds to diminish
after sunset. This will set the stage for a fairly widespread
frost and/or freeze, as temps will drop into the upper 20s
inland to low/mid 30s closer to the coast. Frost/Freeze
headlines are likely to be needed for both of these nights.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Patchy dense fog could linger at the CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through
about 14Z this morning, producing vsbys to around 1/2 SM and
IFR/LIFR cigs temporarily as fog lifts. Thereafter fog is
anticipated to mix out/dissipate quickly with all terminals
experiencing prevailing VFR conditions through 12Z Sunday,
although shower activity associated with a coastal trough could
begin impacting the terminals late in the TAF period. Future TAF
issuances could need to include flight restrictions starting
around 12Z Sunday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are
possible at in showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Monday
evening at the CHS, JZI, and SAV terminals. Gusty winds are
also expected on Monday at all terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong southerly winds will develop Sunday night into Monday
ahead of a powerful cold front. Solid Small Craft Advisory
conditions expected, with the possibility of Gales over the
Charleston nearshore waters due to 35 kt gusts. Small Craft
Advisory conditions expected to linger into Tuesday afternoon
before subsiding.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KCLX radar is scheduled for radome panel replacement March
17-20, 2026. The radar will be down during this time. Users are
encouraged to use data from the following nearby radar sites
during the maintenance outage:

KCAE - Columbia, SC
KLTX - Wilmington, NC
KJAX - Jacksonville, FL
KVAX - Moody AFB, GA
KJGX - Robbins AFB, GA

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

BSH/DPB/JRL