North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

795
FXUS62 KCHS 091828
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
228 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1)Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact
  portions of southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina
  daily through the weekend, with localized heavy rainfall
  possible at times.

- 2) The potential for coastal flooding will persist into
  Friday, primarily for portions of the southeast South Carolina
  coast.

- 3) Locally dense fog is possible across inland southeastern
  GA late tonight and early Thursday morning.

- 4) There is a High Risk of rip currents along the entire
  coastline today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to
impact portions of southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina
daily through the weekend, with localized heavy rainfall possible at
times.

Through Tonight: As surface high pressure over the OBX builds
southward into the southeast the flow across the local forecast
area will shift more southeasterly. Showers will continue to
impact counties generally south of Beaufort as they push inland
from the local adjacent Atlantic waters. Showers and storms are
forecast to be rather progressive, limiting the heavy rainfall
threat. Additionally, while a stronger storm cannot be ruled out
this time of year, the overall severe threat appears low.

A more typical summertime pattern takes hold Thursday as subtropical
high pressure builds to the east. This will support daily scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Convective coverage is expected to peak
Friday into Saturday as upper-level shortwave energy traverses the
Southeast. Southerly flow will transport deep moisture into the
region beginning Thursday, elevating PWATs above 2.0 inches and
supporting efficient rainfall rates through the weekend. Instability
looks to be modest with daily SBCAPE values peaking around 2200-2500
J/kg. This could support periods of heavy rain at times, especially
within thunderstorms, leading to the potential for locally heavy
downpours and minor flooding issues.


KEY MESSAGE 2: The potential for coastal flooding will persist
into Friday, primarily for portions of the southeast South
Carolina coast.

Astronomical tide levels will peak with the upcoming evening
high tide cycle, then remain elevated through Friday. Winds
across the coastal zones and adjacent Atlantic waters will be
ENE this afternoon into the evening. Wind speeds will be less
than the past few days, but still strong enough to maintain the
large positive tidal departures that have been building for the
past few days.

Charleston Harbor: The evening high tide cycle (~7:45 pm) has an
astronomical value of 6.55 ft MLLW. We might lose some of the
departure with winds diminishing and taking on a more easterly
component, but certainly still enough to exceed 7 ft MLLW. A
Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for Charleston and Coastal
Colleton Counties with a forecast of 7.3 ft MLLW. Thursday
evening will likely bring another round of minor coastal
flooding, and potentially even Friday. However, winds will
become less favorable.

Fort Pulaski: The peak astronomical tide will come this evening
(~7:45 pm) at 8.44 ft MLLW. A tide departure of 1.06 ft would
be required to reach the minor coastal flood threshold of 9.5 ft
MLLW. Given the departure of 0.88 ft with this morning`s high
tide, have opted to not issue a Coastal Flood Advisory, with the
forecast advertising a value of 9.4 ft MLLW. Thereafter,
astronomical tides will decrease along with winds which will
likely end the threat of coastal flooding for the week.


KEY MESSAGE 3: Locally dense fog is possible across inland
southeastern GA late tonight and early Thursday morning.

This evening winds across southeastern GA are forecast to go
light to calm and combined with wet soils from the showers this
afternoon will create conditions conducive for fog development.
HREF probabilities for visibilities <0.5 mi are generally
around 30% across inland southeastern GA along with low
condensation pressure deficit values. Fog has been added to the
gridded forecast with the most recent forecast update.


KEY MESSAGE 4: There is a High Risk of rip currents along the
entire coastline today.

Breezy east-northeasterly winds and an east-southeasterly swell will
keep surf conditions dangerous through this evening. The rip current
risk will ease to Moderate on Thursday as the swell tapers and winds
turn east-southeasterly, before dropping to Low on Friday as
conditions further settle.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Prevailing VFR at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV through the 18Z TAF period with
the exception of some brief MVFR cigs with any showers that
impact the terminals. Showers should wane with nightfall.
Additional showers streaming in from the adjacent Atlantic
waters will be possible tomorrow morning, but confidence was too
low to include mention at this time. Additionally, fog is
forecast to develop tonight/Thursday morning, especially across
southeastern GA. The current suite of guidance keeps the fog
inland of the terminals so no mention of MIFG has been included
with the 18Z TAFs.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Periodic flight restrictions will be
possible each day through the weekend within showers and
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight: Easterly flow will continue to weaken
throughout the day. Expect wind speeds to range from 10-15 kt
with gusts up to 20 kt possible, before becoming lighter
tonight.

Thursday through Monday: Tranquil marine conditions arrive Thursday
and persist through the weekend under light southerly to
southwesterly flow. Seas will hold steady at 2 to 3 feet throughout
the period.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ217-
     219-239-241.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     SCZ148>151.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
     SCZ149-150.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

BRS/CPM