North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

670
FXUS62 KCHS 141907 AAA
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Charleston SC
307 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Discussion and Marine sections updated to reflect latest
forecast thoughts.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Heat will remain a concern into the middle of next week.

- 2) Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible each afternoon
  through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Heat will remain a concern into the middle of next
week.

Rest of Today through Sunday: Our annual relocation to the face
of the sun continues as planned as heat indices today have
climbed back into the 108 to 112 range this afternoon. Expect
this heat to continue right into the weekend with the rather
impressive upper ridge firmly locked in place over the
southeast. With plenty of sun to go around and overall profiles
supportive of temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and a few
locations touching triple digits away from the coast, expect no
respite from the heat in the near future. In addition to hot
temperatures, conditions will remain humid with sfc dewpts in
the mid-upper 70s each day and even some rather impressive 80s
dewpoints behind a slowly advancing seabreeze each day. A west-
northwest downsloping wind should result in a slightly delayed
seabreeze the next few afternoons, promoting some mixing out of
sfc dewpts inland, but moisture pooling along/near the sea
breeze will eventually shift higher moisture content onshore
each day for at least a few hours as well. Overall This will
likely result in the higher heat/moisture combination along
coastal zones (along/east of I-95) for the next couple days,
with heat index values up to the 110-115 range late morning into
the afternoon and again on Saturday.The only fly in the
ointment looks to be the coverage of showers and thunderstorms
along the slowly advancing seabreeze during the late afternoon.
This looks to be especially true for areas around the Charleston
metro/tri-county area where coverage looks to peak during the
late afternoon. This could keep things a bit cooler than the
past few days; however, cooler is used likely as thats like
saying a ghost chili is cooler than a carolina reaper pepper.
Despite the uncertainty in convection we went ahead and
upgraded areas along the coast to an Extreme heat warning with a
heat advisory for areas further inland. By Sunday the ridge
should begin to strengthen once again leading to maybe a few
degrees warmer across the board Expect products to continue into
Sunday.


Early to Middle of Next Week: The upper ridge should
re-strengthen across the deep south by next week. Hot/humid
conditions will likely remain across the Southeast United
States. The ridge looks to be the strongest on Monday through
Wednesday as heat indices likely climb well into heat advisory
range and possibly another round of extreme heat watches and
warnings for coastal areas. This is reflected in some of the
longer range ensemble guidance with ECMWF EFI MAX T climbing
into the 80 to 90th percentile meaning increasingly likely for a
more significant heat with respect to area climatology. By the
middle part of the the week, The only limiting factor at this
time looks to be increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday and Wednesday as some increased flow tries to work its
way into the area. Record warmth is possible next week with
guidance suggesting several areas of 100+ temps Monday/Tuesday
and little to no shower/thunderstorm activity. After Wednesday,
the upper ridge should begin to shift eastward and breakdown
bringing a break from the heat wave.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible each
afternoon through the weekend.

With the combination of heat and humidity (mentioned in Key
Message 1) and our area being on the eastern periphery of the
upper ridge, afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be
possible each afternoon. Depending on the model, SBCAPE values
peak in the 2,000-2,500 J/kg range, with DCAPE values upwards of
800 J/kg to 1000 J/kg. The general consensus is that there
should be isolated to scattered convection each afternoon
through the weekend. These details will need to be refined with
each forecast. But the storms are most likely to start along the
sea breeze and then shift inland, with outflow and boundary
interactions playing a role in storm formation and persistence.
Given the aforementioned instability, strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible. The main threat would be damaging
winds. But heavy rainfall is also a concern due to weak steering
flow. Backbuilding and/or training of storms could drop enough
rainfall to generate very localized flooding.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals this afternoon.
Convective coverage this afternoon will be limited, but
scattered storms mainly along the GA coast could bring
temporary restrictions, especially at SAV, mid-to-late
afternoon. Otherwise, a moderate sea breeze will push inland
this afternoon, dissipating overnight as light and variable
winds prevail.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will
bring brief flight restrictions through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight and Sunday: Conditions are expected to remain quiet
across local waters between the western periphery of an Atlantic
high and weak troughing inland, although thunderstorms that
develop over land could shift offshore late afternoon into early
evening hours. A few thunderstorms could remain strong when
shifting across coastal areas. Outside thunderstorms,
southwesterly winds around 10 kt this morning should turn more
southerly and gust up to 15-20 kt this afternoon, then persist
into evening hours, before slowly weakening and returning to a
southwesterly direction overnight. Seas should be no larger than
2-3 ft.

Extended Marine: There will be areas of High pressure in the western
Atlantic and the northern Gulf, while surface troughing will be over
the Southeast U.S. The interaction between all of these synoptic
features will generate a typical summertime wind pattern. Winds
will generally be from the SW, backing a bit each day and veering
some each night. The strongest winds should be during the day,
especially closer to the coast due to the sea breeze. Seas will
mainly be in the 2-3 ft range.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

August 14:
KCHS: 102/1995
KSAV: 102/1925

August 15:
KCHS: 96/2023
KCXM: 99/1918
KSAV: 100/1918

August 16:
KCHS: 99/1954
KSAV: 100/1954

August 17:
KCHS: 102/1954
KSAV: 102/1954

August 18:
KCXM: 97/1995
KSAV: 100/1995

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

August 14:
KCHS: 80/2023
KCXM: 83/2023
KSAV: 80/2023

August 15:
KCHS: 78/1995
KCXM: 83/2021
KSAV: 80/1995

August 16:
KCHS: 78/2019
KCXM: 83/2016
KSAV: 78/2019

August 17:
KCHS: 80/2017
KCXM: 83/2017
KSAV: 78/2017

August 18:
KCHS: 80/2017
KCXM: 82/2017
KSAV: 78/2010

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114-115-137.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114-115-137.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     GAZ216>219-238>241.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for
     GAZ216>219-238>241.
SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ040-042>044.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for SCZ040-
     042>044.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ045-
     147>152.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for
     SCZ045-147>152.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Black