North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

921
FXUS62 KCHS 110638
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
138 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will continue
  through Thursday.

- 2) Frost/freeze conditions are possible Friday night through
  Sunday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry conditions and above normal temperatures
will continue through Thursday.

Today: High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern
across the Southeast United States, supporting dry conditions and
above normal temperatures, despite an increase in mid-high clouds
across the region. High temps should peak in the mid-upper 70s this
afternoon. Overnight lows will also trend warmer with cloud some
cloud cover lingering and a light west-southwest wind through the
night. In general, low temps should range in the low-mid 50s inland
to upper 50s/around 60 near the beaches.

Thursday: A breezy southwesterly flow is expected to develop across
the region as a mid-upper lvl trough forces a sfc cold front across
the Appalachian Mountains early morning, then toward the local area
late afternoon into evening hours. Gusts up to 25-30 mph will be
common by afternoon hours as sfc temps warm into the mid-upper 70s
one last day this week. Latest soundings continue to indicate
substantially dry low-mid levels through cold fropa, which leads to
a dry forecast for the entire area. Strong cold air advection occurs
in wake of the front overnight with a west-northwest flow bringing
noticeably cooler air across the local area. Overnight lows should
generally range in the low-mid 40s inland to around 50 at the
beaches during predawn hours Friday.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Frost/freeze conditions are possible Friday night
through Sunday night.

Much cooler air begins to move in behind the front, with early
morning temperatures on Friday expected to start off in the lower
40s inland up into the lower 50s along the coast. Despite the sky
being clear, cold air advection (CAA) will keep afternoon highs
limited to the lower to mid 60s. Wind speeds have come down a touch,
though the afternoon hours will likely still see gusts into the
upper teens to lower 20s.

With the cold air continuing to funnel down into the region, Friday
night into Saturday will be our first night where concerns for frost
formation return to the area. As mentioned previously, wind speeds
have come down, and with overnight lows in the mid 30s across
portions of inland southeast South Carolina and southeast Georgia,
frost formation can`t be ruled out. The highest chances for frost
will be Saturday night into Sunday morning, with the immediate
coastal zones being excluded. Areas west of I-95 in southeast
Georgia and along/west of I-95 in the Lowcountry have a chance of
reaching freezing temperatures. Another chance for frost/freeze
returns into Monday morning as cold temperatures linger.

Nov 11 01z NBM 10km neighborhood probabilities for emergency
management warming shelter planning:

Friday Night/Saturday Morning:
                              Inland Areas    Coastal Corridor
Temps 35 degrees or colder:      20-40%             <5%
Temps 32 degrees or colder:       5-10%             <5%
Temps 30 degrees or colder:         <5%             <5%

Saturday Night/Sunday Morning:
                              Inland Areas    Coastal Corridor
Temps 35 degrees or colder:      70-90%          20-50%
Temps 32 degrees or colder:      20-40%              5%
Temps 30 degrees or colder:      10-30%             <5%

Sunday Night/Monday Morning:
                              Inland Areas    Coastal Corridor
Temps 35 degrees or colder:      40-70%          10-30%
Temps 32 degrees or colder:      20-30%           5-10%
Temps 30 degrees or colder:      10-20%             <5%

Frost Advisories, Freeze Watches and Freeze Warnings may
eventually be needed, especially for areas roughly inland of
US-17 in the Lowcountry and I-95 in Southeast Georgia.

Detailed information on first freeze dates for the area can be
found online at:
https://www.weather.gov/media/chs/climate/AverageFirstLastFreezeDates.pdf

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals
through 06Z Thursday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Breezy southwesterly winds will be
strengthening throughout the day on Thursday, producing gusts up to
near 25 knots. A cold front moves through overnight into Friday,
swinging winds around to become out of the west-northwest.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and Tonight: High pressure will dominate the weather pattern
through tonight, but the pressure gradient is anticipated to
strengthen well in advance of large-scale trough and associated cold
front late day and overnight. In general, south/southwest winds
around 10 kt or less this morning will gradually increase to around
15 kt this afternoon, then continue to increase to 15-20 kt across
most local waters during the night. There is a chance of gusts to
briefly touch 25 kt across offshore GA waters after midnight, but
coverage and duration do not support a Small Craft Advisory issuance
at this time. Seas will slowly build from 1-3 ft today to 2-4 ft
tonight.

Thursday into Sunday: Winds increase out of the southwest Thursday
ahead of an approaching cold front, becoming gusty to near 30 knots.
Likewise, wind-driven seas will build, with 6 foot seas likely
limited to the offshore (20-60nm) zones. Small Craft Advisories will
likely be needed for our waters starting Thursday, though with
timing concerns wanted to allow for more model runs before issuing.
Winds shifts to become out of the west-northwest overnight into
Friday, with a brief period of weakening winds during the
morning/afternoon, before wind gusts pick up again overnight into
Saturday to near 25 knots. This looks to primarily impact the waters
20-60nm offshore from Edisto Beach, SC to Altamaha Sound, GA, with
weaker winds elsewhere. Winds decrease Saturday as surface high
pressure builds in, remaining in the 10 to 15 knot range with gusts
to 20 knots at times into Sunday.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$