North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

682
FXUS62 KCHS 232359
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
659 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Key Message regarding fire weather concerns has been removed
as the Fire Danger Statement expired at 7 PM. The Aviation
Section has been updated to reflect the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Cold weather with sub-freezing temperatures again tonight.

- 2) A front will bring widespread rainfall late Thursday into
  Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Cold weather with sub-freezing temperatures
again tonight.

Modified arctic high pressure centered over the central Plains
this afternoon will south into the north-central Gulf coast
overnight. The gradient between the high and the nor`easter
departing to the Northeast U.S. will keep some degree of wind in
place through the night. There are indications the gradient may
relax just enough before daybreak to allow for least a partial
decoupling of the boundary layer, but guidance is certainly
struggling with how much of this will occur. The 23/13z NBM is
running at the very top end or even outside of the warmer
side of the interquartile range (IQR) of the various guidance
and was considered an outlier. A blend of the colder statistical and
deterministic guidance was preferred for and yields lows very
similar to the previous forecast; ranging from the mid 20s
inland to the the lower 30s at the beaches. A few lower 20s are
possible away from the coast where some localized, full
boundary layer decoupling occurs. As winds diminish with the
approach of the diurnal minimum, wind chills are expected to
bottom out 20-25 degree range or just above Cold Weather
Advisory criteria. A few spots could briefly drop into the upper
teens just right around daybreak, but durations should be
pretty brief and transient. A Cold Weather Advisory will not be
issued for this reason.


KEY MESSAGE 2: A front will bring widespread rainfall late
Thursday into Friday.

The mid-levels will consist of nearly zonal flow over the
Southeast U.S. Thursday morning. Troughing will develop to our
west Thursday night, with its axis stretching roughly from the
TN Valley southward on Friday and Friday night. At the surface,
High pressure will be far offshore Thursday morning. Meanwhile,
Low pressure will be centered over the Mid MS Valley, with an
attached warm front located well to our north and a cold front
well to our west. The Low will shift eastward Thursday, dragging
the cold front with it. This will usher deeper moisture into
our region. Models generally have scattered showers
overspreading our far inland counties Thursday morning, perhaps
remaining over this general area through Thursday afternoon.
Showers should shift eastward Thursday evening, with widespread
rainfall expected late Thursday night into Friday morning. The
widespread showers should shift closer to the coast Friday
afternoon, with coverage decreasing further inland. There are
some differences regarding how fast or slow the showers clear
out from our area, ranging Friday night through Saturday. This
aspect of the forecast will need to be refined. It`s still too
early to determine total rainfall amounts, but initial
indications are we`re not expected flooding rains, especially
considering the ongoing drought in place. Additionally, a few
rumbles of thunder are possible ahead of the front. High
temperatures should be a few degrees above normal during this
time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Prevailing VFR at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV through the 00Z TAF period.

Extended Aviation Outlook: A front should bring flight
restrictions late Thursday into Friday. Occasional flight
restrictions could persist into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight: Winds will continue to slowly subside across
the waters tonight as the pressure gradient between inland high
pressure and departing low pressure eases. The Small Craft
Advisory for the Charleston Harbor was allowed to expire at 5
PM, with a Small Craft Advisory remaining in effect for all
other waters through tonight and into tomorrow morning in the
outer GA waters.

Tuesday and Wednesday: Winds may approach Small Craft Advisory
levels across mainly the Georgia offshore and both South
Carolina nearshore waters Wednesday in response to a re-
tightening of the pressure gradient between departing high
pressure to the southeast and and the formation of a lee-side
trough across the Upstate into the North Carolina Foothills.

Thursday and Friday: A front will approach from the west on
Thursday, causing winds and seas to increase to Small Craft
Advisory levels across most our our ocean zones. These
conditions will persist into Thursday night. The front is
expected to shift through the waters on Friday, then offshore
Friday night, causing winds and seas to trend lower.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ350-352-354.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ374.

&&

$$

CPM/ST