North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

686
FXUS62 KCHS 271055
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
655 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Unsettled weather will continue into late week, with
  increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Unsettled weather will continue into late week,
with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms this
weekend.

Early this morning, satellite water vapor indicated a compact mid-
level disturbance off the SC coast. KCLX detected scattered to
numerous showers with isolated thunderstorms across Charleston
County and over the adjacent Atlantic waters. This activity should
move NNE, pushing generally north of the forecast area by dawn this
morning.

Recent runs of the HRRR and HREF indicate that the forecast area may
remain dry through the rest of the morning. As temperatures warm to
around 90 degrees by early this afternoon, a sea breeze is expected
to develop. Dewpoints along and east of the sea breeze should peak
in the upper 70s this afternoon. As a result, slight mixed layer
instability should develop near the sea breeze as it pushes
inland this afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate that PW
values will remain around 2 inches, with less than 1000 J/kg of
DCAPE. Given the environment of deep moisture, low shear, and
instability, storms this afternoon should be efficient rain
producers but likely sub-severe. HREF indicates that storms may
yield swaths of rainfall exceeding an inch across inland GA/SC,
with some areas potentially receiving in excess of 3 inches
west of I-95. Convection is expected to dissipate by late this
evening. Land areas are forecast to remain generally dry
tonight, with rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible over
the Atlantic.

Friday through Sunday: Upper level trough holds tight across the
Ohio River Friday, as a sfc cold front dives southeastward toward
the region. As noted in days past, will likely see this boundary
stall overhead this weekend before it departs across the Atlantic
early next week. Thus, expect an active and wet pattern to continue.
Latest guidance continues to agree that scattered to numerous
showers and storms will be possible, especially Friday night and
Saturday. PoPs have increased as a result, with much of our area now
advertising a 60-80% PoP each afternoon and evening. While there is
certainly enough lift and moisture (PWATs near 2 inches) to work
with, overall severe chances remain relatively low. Nonetheless,
can`t rule out seeing an isolated storm or so becoming strong to
severe. However, think the main thing we will need to keep an eye on
in the coming days is the risk of heavy rainfall, given the
potential for slow moving, training, or back building storms. If
these setups were to occur, could easily see locally high rainfall
totals occur in a short period of time, increasing the potential for
localized flooding or flash flooding, particularly in urban and low-
lying areas. For now, would expect accumulations through the weekend
to range between 0.5 - 1.5 inches, with isolated pockets upwards of
2 to 3 inches.

Monday Onwards: Sfc high pressure is progged to build across the
Tennessee River Valley heading into the new week, allowing
precipitation chances and coverage to gradually wane. As such,
expect our typical summertime pattern to return, with daily chances
for isolated showers and storms along/near the advancing sea
breeze.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Prior to the 12Z TAFs, KCLX detected land breeze near KJZI,
highlighted in the TAF until 14Z. The rest of the morning should
remain VFR with light SW winds. Sea breeze thunderstorms may
develop near KSAV between 19-23Z, with slightly less chances at
KCHS. Otherwise, TAFs will feature wind changes from SW ahead
of the sea breeze turning from the SSW after the sea breeze this
afternoon.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms will bring
brief flight restrictions through the weekend, especially during the
afternoons.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and tonight: The pressure pattern will generally support
southwest winds between 10 to 15 kts across the marine zones. Wave
heights are forecast to remain between 2 to 3 ft.

Friday through Monday: Sfc cold front is expected to approach the
region Friday then stall overhead through the weekend. Fortunately,
our waters should remain fairly calm during this time, with seas
between 2 to 3 ft, and gusts averaging 15 kts or less. Thus, while
Small Craft Advisories are not expected at this time, do want to
highlight that some storms may result in brief periods of higher
winds along with frequent lightning.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NED/SST