North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

618
FXUS62 KCHS 130700
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
300 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday could produce locally
  heavy rainfall and isolated flooding. A few storms could also
  become strong to severe.

- 2) Near-normal temperatures are expected to return end of this week
  and warming into the weekend.

- 3) Minor coastal flooding is likely during the evening high tide
  cycles today through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday could
produce locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding. A few storms
could also become strong to severe.

Today and Tonight: A weak backdoor front will slowly nudge south
across the region with the aid of a mid-upper lvl trough becoming
positioned across the Southeast, but is likely to stall across the
local area by late day as the mid-upper lvl trough begins to
retrograde westward across the Mississippi River Valley overnight.
The stalling front should remain the primary focus for shower and
thunderstorm activity locally this afternoon into tonight, providing
ample moisture convergence while a southerly sfc wind occurs along
and south of this feature. Although sfc heating will not be as
pronounced as previous days under some clouds and expanding
shower/thunderstorm coverage during peak heating hours, deep
moisture (PWATs ~2.25 inches) and activity occurring across wet
grounds from previous rainfall could lead to localized flooding
across Southeast South Carolina and Southeast Georgia, especially if
interacting with a sea breeze and/or convective outflows from
ongoing convection. Precip activity shifting toward the coast
throughout the day could also pose an additional risk for flooding
along coastal locations should it occur during the evening high tide
cycle (see Key Message #2). The latest WPC Excessive Rainfall
Outlook for today highlights the entire area in a Marginal Risk for
excessive rainfall/flash flooding. The severe weather risk appears
less than the previous few days, but modest instability and low-lvl
lapse rates could support a few stronger thunderstorms and/or
perhaps an isolated severe thunderstorm with damaging winds. The
latest SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook includes the entire area in a
Marginal Risk.

Tuesday: The previously mentioned stationary front/boundary should
remain draped across the local area, leading to another day of
shower and thunderstorm activity within an environment marked by
modest instability and weak shear. Precip activity should once again
become primarily focused along this feature with additional chances
of isolated flooding during the afternoon/evening. WPC continues
to highlight the entire area in a Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall/flash flooding. The risk for severe weather appears
somewhat more limited given limited/weaker forcing locally, but
a few stronger thunderstorms are possible, especially with any
interacting sea breeze and/or convective outflow boundaries.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Near-normal temperatures are expected to return end
of this week and warming into the weekend.

While there is some uncertainty in the strength and southern extent
of a mid-level trough along the east coast later this week, the
general trend is for upper level heights to build across the
southeast region. This uncertainty bleeds over into the surface
pattern thus affecting surface temperatures, with ensemble
clustering suggesting near-normal temperatures are favored over
above-normal temperatures later this week. Details remain unclear
into the weekend, though the current consensus is for above-normal
temperatures to return.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Minor coastal flooding is likely during the evening
high tide cycles today through Wednesday.

Increasing astronomical tides associated with today`s lunar perigee
and Tuesday`s New Moon will continue a risk of minor coastal
flooding each evening through Wednesday, mainly along the coastal
Charleston and coastal Colleton Counties. The greatest threat is
expected this evening and Tuesday evening as astronomical tides peak
just below 6.6 ft MLLW in the Charleston Harbor, and when combined
with the anomaly will likely see water levels peak in the 7.3-7.5 ft
MLLW range, firmly in minor flood stage. Wednesday evening is
looking to peak right at/near minor flood stage. Additionally, if
heavy rainfall were to occur near or during the time of the evening
high tide cycles, flooding concerns would increase as total water
levels would similarly increase.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are likely at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 16Z
today. The chances for showers/thunderstorms increases during
the afternoon with PROB30 groups for thunderstorms and 4SM
vsbys included at all terminals between 19Z today to 04Z
Tuesday. Gusty winds along with heavy downpours could reduce
vsbys further when directly impacting the terminals. VFR
conditions should then return at all terminals after 04Z
Tuesday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Shower and thunderstorm coverage, along
with risks of associated restrictions, will remain elevated through
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through Wednesday: A weak cold front will continue to slip
through the region from north to south today and into Tuesday,
yielding variable winds through Tuesday. This front is expected to
increase the shower and thunderstorm activity over the waters, with
isolated to scattered thunderstorms becoming strong to severe,
primarily during the late afternoon and evening hours. The front is
expected to remain just off to our south of Wednesday, though
chances for thunderstorms will continue. Outside of thunderstorms,
marine conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria.

Wednesday - Friday: West-southwesterly surface flow is expected to
develop Wednesday and remain into Friday, with continued sub Small
Craft Advisory criteria.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$