North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

341
FXUS62 KCHS 091807
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
207 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated the Marine section to address the waterspout potential
this morning. In addition, the Aviation section was updated for
the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Typical summertime storm activity will continue through
  early this week.

- 2) Hot and humid conditions will return this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Typical summertime storm activity will continue
through early this week.

The Bermuda high will remain in control of our forecast for the
next day or so as it slowly flattens out across Florida. This
will continue to bring a more summerlike pattern to the area as
we remain on the northwestern periphery of the ridge. Expect the
seabreeze to be the main surface driver for afternoon showers
and thunderstorms. Isolated to scattered storms should develop
by mid-afternoon Monday with the progression of the seabreeze.
PWATS will remain around 2 inches and with slightly increased
moisture throughout the column Monday we could see a little
better coverage than today. As always a strong to severe storm
cannot be ruled out with damaging winds the primary threat as
well as some locally heavy rainfall. However, conditions are not
necessarily favorable for a more widespread concern at this
time.

Tuesday through Thursday, the upper ridge will shift westward
and build over the deep south. A series of shortwaves are
expected to progress through the northwesterly flow Tuesday
through Thursday leading to slightly increased showers and
storms during the afternoon. This will be especially true for
inland areas Wednesday and Thursday. Given the increased
coverage, warmer temperatures and maybe some drier air in the
midlevels advecting in some increased potential for a strong to
severe storm looks likely Wednesday and Thursday. This has even
been noted in some of the longer range machine learning guidance
highlighting increased potential for damaging wind gusts across
interior South Carolina on Wednesday. Just something to watch
as things may get a little more active later in the week.



KEY MESSAGE 2: Hot and humid conditions will return this week.

Despite having a decent cu field in place, expect highs to warm into
the low 90s for most locations this afternoon, with perhaps a few
areas flirting with the mid 90s. Dewpoints during this time look to
remain in the mid to upper 70s, which should result in heat indices
up to 105 degrees. Similar conditions look to prevail Monday as a
coastal trough enhances WAA across the region, with a more
pronounced heat wave expected to arrive mid week.

High temperatures each day are expected to peak in the lower to mid
90s, with chances for upper 90s by the end of the week, putting a
few of our daily record highs and record minimum highs at jeopardy
(more in the climate section below). Inland areas (especially those
well west of the I-95 corridor) will likely see enough surface
mixing to limit dew points to the mid 70s, while those along the
coast could see dew points linger in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Combined with the aforementioned temperatures in the mid to upper
90s, expect heat index values between 105-112 degrees to be common
along the coast through Wednesday. These values look to further
increase by the end of the week as upper level ridging amplifies
overhead - which could yield heat index values up to 115 degrees.
Thus, expect some Heat Advisories to be issued during the upcoming
week, though some Extreme Heat Warnings may also not be out of the
question.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z TAFs: Mostly VFR conditions prevail across the forecast
area with some isolated to scattered showers and storms
developing in and around SAV. Impacts to aviation look to be
temporary with the best chances at SAV as we approach 00z
tonight and as a result have added a PROB30 group to account for
thunderstorm activity this evening. Elsewhere, storms should
remain inland of CHS and JZI leaving the area to VFR conditions
and light southerly winds behind the seabreeze. Winds will
diminish to light out of the southwest overnight.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Periodic flight restrictions are expected
in showers and thunderstorms through next week.

&&

.MARINE...

Monday through Thursday: Atlantic high pressure will be the dominant
synoptic feature into next week, keeping winds out of the south-
southwest. Light to moderate winds prevail on Monday, though gusty
winds are expected along the land/sea interface during the afternoon
hours as the sea breeze moves ashore. Coastal troughing sets up
overnight into Tuesday and continues throughout the week, keeping
winds breezy with gusts into the teens to lower 20s. Seas look to
remain largely in the 2-3 ft range, though 4 foot waves will be
possible at times in the South Carolina waters from 20-60nm
offshore. Small Craft Advisories currently look unlikely, but will
be something to monitor.

Coastal Flooding: While elevated tidal cycles are expected next week
due to the upcoming perigee and new moon, the south-southwesterly
surface flow should keep tidal departures low, limiting the overall
coastal flood threat.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

August 11:
KCHS: 98/1968
KCXM: 97/1954
KSAV: 100/2011

August 12:
KCHS: 98/1957
KCXM: 98/1998
KSAV: 100/1999

August 13:
KCHS: 100/1995
KCXM: 98/1913
KSAV: 98/2010

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

August 10:
KCHS: 80/2007
KCXM: 83/2007
KSAV: 79/2024

August 11:
KCHS: 79/1983
KCXM: 82/2021
KSAV: 78/1878

August 12:
KCHS: 79/1999
KCXM: 83/2021
KSAV: 80/1878

August 13:
KCHS: 81/2023
KCXM: 83/2023
KSAV: 81/2023

August 14:
KCHS: 80/2023
KCXM: 83/2023
KSAV: 80/2023

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Black/SST