North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

572
FXUS62 KCHS 310626
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
226 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to
  develop along the sea breeze this afternoon. These
  thunderstorms will be capable of producing gusty winds,
  locally heavy rainfall, and cloud to ground lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected
to develop along the sea breeze this afternoon. These
thunderstorms will be capable of producing gusty winds, locally
heavy rainfall, and cloud to ground lightning.

Overall, the surface pattern across southeast GA and southeast
SC will be rather diffuse today. This should allow the sea
breeze circulation to take shape in the early afternoon and
begin to gradually push inland. Somewhat similar to yesterday,
dewpoints across the inland tier of the area will be on the low
side and are forecast to mix out into the low to mid 60s.
However, along the coast low to mid 70s will be more common and
should provide sufficient low-level moisture to allow for
convective initiation along the sea breeze. Hi-res model
solutions and the 31/00z HREF all paint a similar picture with
scattered coverage along the coastal corridor where the best
moisture pooling will reside. Model soundings show a pretty
typical summertime environment. Instability is modest, with
MLCAPE values on the order 1,500-2,000 J/kg, owing to warm mid-
levels and weak lapse rates. However, there will be plentiful
mid and upper level dry air which will yield DCAPE values well
in excess of 1,000 J/kg. Also, wind profiles are weak and will
favor storm motion of no more than 10 knots. So, instability
will likely be a limiting factor and help keep the overall
severe threat low, but it is possible we could see a couple of
quick pulsing storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts.
Also, with minimal storm motion there is the potential for
locally heavy rainfall. Convection will likely struggle to
spread inland thanks to the aforementioned lower dewpoints.
Storms should mostly run their course by the late afternoon and
steadily dissipate through the early evening hours.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The 06z TAF period begins with VFR conditions at KCHS, KJZI,
and KSAV. The main forecast issue will come this afternoon with
the potential for thunderstorm develop along the sea breeze.
This will put the development zone in the vicinity of all 3
terminals. There is very little confidence on the exact
placement of storms this afternoon, but the overall thinking is
for isolated to scattered storms along the coast starting around
17-18z and continuing through 20-21z. Thereafter the potential
for storms will wane and the rest of the period should be free
of thunderstorms. We have included a PROB30 for this time period
at all 3 sites, with a slightly earlier shift in timing for
KJZI. If storms directly impact the terminals, gusty winds will
be possible along with MVFR/IFR visibility in heavy rainfall.

Extended Aviation Outlook: The probabilities for periodic
flight restrictions due to showers and thunderstorms will
increase this weekend into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and tonight: A stationary front will stretch across the
Southeast and extend into the local waters through tonight. This
will support relatively light winds with seas generally around
1 to 2 ft.

A strong cold front is expected to approach from the west later
this weekend, causing winds and seas to build as the pressure
gradient tightens. Wind gusts of 25-30 kt are possible across
portions of the local waters on Sunday, with seas increasing to
5 to 6 ft. Small Craft Advisories could be needed. Marine
conditions are expected to gradually improve Monday into Tuesday
as the front weakens/moves out of the area.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

August 1:
KSAV: 79/2020

August 4:
KSAV: 78/1941

August 5:
KCHS: 79/1980
KCXM: 82/1991

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

BRS/BSH