North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

751
FXUS62 KCHS 071217
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
817 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Key Message 1 have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) The risk for coastal flooding and coastal hazards continues.

- 2) Seasonable temperatures and generally dry conditions
  are expected through Thursday.

- 3) The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has identified Tropical
  Storm Isaias in the southwestern Gulf. Regardless of track
  across the Gulf, heavy rainfall could develop over the Southeast
  United States by this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: The risk for coastal flooding and coastal hazards
continues.

For Charleston and Coastal Colleton Counties, gusty/persistent
northeast winds associated with a wedge of high pressure inland
and low pressure offshore in combination with high astronomical
tide levels will likely support additional coastal flooding
issues during high tide cycles through Thursday, and possibly
into Friday. The high tide during late afternoon/early evening
hours later today will be the greatest concern when minor to
potentially low-end moderate saltwater flooding is possible
(~7.4 ft MLLW at the Charleston Harbor). Otherwise, minor
coastal flooding is possible with remaining high tides.

For Beaufort, SC to McIntosh, GA Counties, the greatest risk for
coastal flooding is expected with the late afternoon/early evening
high tide cycle today (~9.5 ft MLLW at Fort Pulaski, GA). Coastal
Flood Advisories could be issued later today for this area.

Rip Currents/High Surf/Beach Erosion: The setup remains highly
favorable rip currents today with gusty northeast winds expected. A
High Risk is highlighted for the Georgia beaches with a Moderate
Risk for the South Carolina beaches today.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Seasonable temperatures and generally dry conditions
are expected through Thursday.

As we remain between a surface high pressure to our north and a
stationary front to our south, winds may become breezy later this
morning and into the afternoon. Breeziest winds are expected along
the coastline (near 30 mph in SE GA, to near 25 mph in SE SC) while
areas inland may see gusts to 20 mph. Otherwise, despite partly to
mostly cloudy skies, temperatures continue to moderate today into
the upper 70s to lower 80s. Dry conditions are expected, though an
isolated shower can`t be ruled out near Darien, GA. Weak ridging
builds on Thursday with dry northeasterly surface flow keeping the
region dry, resulting in an overall rather pleasant mid-October day
with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and light winds.

KEY MESSAGE 3: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has identified
Tropical Storm Isaias in the southwestern Gulf. Regardless of track
across the Gulf, heavy rainfall could develop over the Southeast
United States by this weekend.

Tropical Storm Isaias has developed across the southwestern Gulf
this morning and is forecast to shift east/east-northeast during the
next day or two, becoming more organized and strengthening to a
hurricane while passing north of the Yucatan Peninsula, before
turning north and tracking across the central/northern Gulf on
Friday. Regardless of development, deep tropical moisture (PWATs
exceeding 2 inches) will likely be drawn northward across the
Southeast United States as this cyclone approaches the northern Gulf
Coast early weekend, setting up the risk for heavy rainfall locally
within a widespread isentropic lift scenario between a wedge of high
pressure across the Carolinas/Georgia and a weak front/coastal
trough nearby starting early weekend.

Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms are possible late
Friday through Sunday as the setup remains quite favorable for deep
moisture transport feeding across the region between a mid-lvl
pattern featuring a broad closed low over the Southern Plains and a
ridge centered across the western Atlantic. This could pose an
elevated risk for minor/flash flooding locally as PWATs approach 2.5
inches and rounds of precip activity occur across already wet
grounds. In addition, New Moon high tides with elevated astronomical
tides will occur this weekend. Any elevated rainfall rates during
high tides may lead to flooding of coastal areas, including Savannah
and Charleston. The latest WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook places
much of Southeast Georgia in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall
Friday and a Slight Risk for Southeast Georgia and Southeast South
Carolina on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 12Z
Thursday. Northeast winds could gust to around 15 kts mid morning
into late afternoon, before weakening considerably this evening.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR through Thursday. The risk for
flight restrictions returns over the weekend with widespread
showers and/or thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: The pinched pressure gradient will continue the breezy
conditions this morning, with gusts of 25 to 30 knots across all
near and offshore zones not including the Charleston Harbor keeping
Small Craft Advisories in effect. Buoys continue to report wave
heights of 5 to 7 ft across nearshore zones and up into the 6 to 8
ft range in the offshore zones, with waves starting to ease as winds
decrease throughout the afternoon hours. While winds dip below Small
Craft Advisory levels (25 knot gusts) throughout the afternoon and
evening hours, gusts will remain in the 10 to 20 knot range
throughout the overnight hours, strongest across the SE GA waters.
Wave heights will similarly decrease, with Small Craft Advisories
expiring from north to south.

Thursday: The last remaining 6 foot waves move out of the marine
zone from Savannah to Altamaha Sound, GA 20-60nm offshore near
daybreak, allowing for the Small Craft Advisory to expire. While the
surface high pressure continue to weaken, the pressure gradient
remains elevated with the stalled front to our south, continuing
wind gusts generally in the 15 to 20 knot range.

Friday through Sunday: See NHC forecast for the latest on Tropical
Depression 9. The pressure gradient will increase between a coastal
trough and high pressure inland. Winds should strengthen through the
period, with small craft advisories possibly needed by Friday
afternoon as 25+ knot gusts move in, with gale wind gusts possible
by Saturday. Strengthening winds should drive sea higher, with 6-9
ft wave heights possible on Saturday. Elevated conditions will
likely persist through the rest of the weekend.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The Metter, GA, NOAA Weather Radio Station (WWH-25) will be
offline from 8 AM Wednesday, October 7, through the afternoon
of Thursday, October 8. The transmitter is being relocated.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ217-
     219-239-241.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ360.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ362.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ364.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ384.

&&

$$