North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

447
FXUS62 KCHS 261100
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
700 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation section has been updated to reflect the 12Z aviation
forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A significant, multi-day coastal flooding event will continue
  this week.

- 2) Strong northeast flow through early week will result in
  several hazards including rip currents, high surf, and beach
  erosion.

- 3) Dry conditions will continue through the week before
  gradually warming up by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A significant, multi-day coastal flooding event
will continue this week.

Astronomical tides will continue to rise into early this week due to
the upcoming full moon (10/26) and the lunar perigee (10/28). Large
tidal departures are ongoing, and with an extended period of strong
northeast flow this weekend and into next week, departures will
increase in magnitude. The combination of the highest astronomical
tides of the year and persistent strong northeast flow will result
in a multi-day moderate to major coastal flooding event for the
entire southeast GA/SC coast.

Monday Morning: The highest tide level of the event is forecast to
occur around 8 AM, with 7.9-8.1 ft MLLW forecast at the Charleston
Harbor and 10.0-10.2 ft MLLW at Fort Pulaski. A Coastal Flood
Warning is in effect for Charleston and Coastal Colleton
Counties, as this tide is forecast to reach major flood levels.
Elsewhere along the coast a Coastal Flood Advisories are in
effect, including Tidal Berkeley.

Rest of This Week: Coastal flooding is forecast to occur with the
Tuesday, and Wednesday morning high tide cycles, with minor flooding
possible through the end of the week. During these cycles, it is
possible that the Charleston Harbor could exceed moderate flood
stage. Winds will slightly relax heading into this week,
leading to lowering tidal departures. Coastal Flood Advisories
will be needed.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Prolonged gusty northeast flow through late week will
result in several hazards including rip currents, high surf, and
beach erosion.

Rip Currents: Gusty northeast winds, long-period swell, and ongoing
wave action will continue to support dangerous rip currents along
all southeast SC/GA beaches. A High Risk for rip currents is in
place for all area beaches through Tuesday. An enhanced risk of rip
currents could continue through the rest of week. Of note: Saturday,
October 31 marks the end of the 2026 surf season and the final
routine issuance of the Surf Zone Forecast.

High Surf/Beach Erosion: Breaking wave heights will be at their peak
early this morning around 4-6 ft, before subsiding below 5 feet by
early afternoon, when the High Surf Advisory for the entire
southeast SC/GA coast is set to expire. Another round of high surf
is possible mid-week as the pattern holds, although looks to fall
just short of criteria at this time. Additionally, the combination
of elevated tides, wave action and the persistent gusty northeast
winds will continue to result in beach erosion for the ongoing high
surf event, with the most significant impacts occurring around high
tide this morning.


KEY MESSAGE 3: Dry conditions will continue through the week before
gradually warming up by the end of the week.

A rather persistent synoptic pattern continue through the week,
with upper level ridging over the northern Gulf Coast and an
upper trough lingering around the Bahamas. At the surface, high
pressure centered over New England will dominate through mid-
week allowing for a wedge to remain in place across the
Carolinas. The wedge of high pressure will weaken slightly mid-
week as the upper ridge begins to flatten out and slide east.
This will allow for temperatures to return to near normal by
the end of the week. The forecast remains rain- free through
the week. Our next rainfall possibly arrives by Sunday into
early next week as our next pattern change occurs.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR Conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast with
gusty northeasterly winds persisting during the day. Winds
should be slightly lower than the past few days with gusts up to
20 knots possible. Winds should relax tomorrow night to around 5
knots or less.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Breezy north-northeast winds are
expected at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV daily through late week. Otherwise,
there are no high confidence concerns.&&

&&

.MARINE...
Today and Tonight: A tight pressure gradient persists between high
pressure wedged inland to the north and weak low pressure struggling
to organize well offshore. Although winds and seas are trending
downward, hazardous conditions continue. Gale Warnings for the
nearshore waters (0-20 nm) have transitioned to Small Craft
Advisories, while Gale Warnings remain in effect for the offshore
waters (20-60 nm) through this afternoon before transitioning to
advisories. The Small Craft Advisory for Charleston Harbor has been
cancelled. Seas will peak this morning at 6 to 10 ft nearshore and
10 to 13 ft offshore, followed by a gradual decline this afternoon.

Tuesday through Thursday: The persistent inland high pressure wedge
will keep winds and seas elevated across the coastal waters through
late week. Outside of the Charleston Harbor, expect widespread Small
Craft Advisory conditions featuring north-northeast wind gusts of 25
to 30 kt, nearshore seas of 5 to 8 ft, and offshore seas of 8 to 10
ft (highest across Georgia waters). A brief surge Wednesday evening
could produce localized low-end gale gusts, especially across the
Georgia waters. However, an upgrade to a Gale Warning for that area
looks unlikely at this time.

Friday and Saturday: Marine conditions will improve drastically as
the pressure gradient over the waters relaxes, bringing an end to
the prolonged stretch of hazardous conditions.



&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for GAZ217-219-239-
     241.
     High Surf Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for GAZ217-
     219-239-241.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for GAZ217-
     219-239-241.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ148>151.
     High Surf Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     SCZ148>151.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for SCZ148-
     151-152.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for SCZ149-
     150.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ360-362-
     364.
     Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ380-382-384.

&&

$$

Black/BRS