North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

925
FXUS62 KCHS 281112
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
712 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm will be possible
  late this evening, mainly for southeast South Carolina. The
  primary threat will be damaging wind gusts.

- 2) Dangerous heat and humidity will impact southeast Georgia
  and southeast South Carolina through the middle of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm will
be possible late this evening, mainly for southeast South
Carolina. The primary threat will be damaging wind gusts.

Aloft, the forecast area will continue to sit within the
corridor of northwest flow on the far eastern periphery of the
large ridge positioned near the Four Corners region. This larger
scale flow pattern will help to push a developing MCS across
the OH Valley into the central and southern Appalachians after
sunrise. This convection is then expected to continue
progressing to the south and southeast through the morning while
interacting with the high terrain of the western Carolinas. The
initial convection should then weaken and dissipate into the
afternoon. The concern for our forecast area will come later
into the evening, primarily for southeast SC. If some convection
could survive, or if new convection can initiate, the ambient
environment could be supportive of a few strong to severe storms
capable of producing damaging wind gusts. Current thinking is
that the threat isn`t particularly high thanks to the timing and
loss of peak heating by that time. Also, all hi-res model
solutions and the 28/00z HREF depict very little activity
through the evening and into the early morning hours. However,
until the initial upstream convection develops and gets properly
initialized by hi-res models the potential remains.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Dangerous heat and humidity will impact
southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina through the
middle of the week.

Today is expected to be hot and humid across all of southeast
GA and southeast SC. High temperatures are forecast to peak in
the mid to upper 90s, with a few triple digits possible across
southeast GA along and south of I-16. With dewpoints at least in
the low to mid 70s everywhere, heat indices of up to 108
degrees will be quite common. The most uncomfortable conditions
are expected along the coastal corridor, where dewpoints will
likely surge into the upper 70s behind the sea breeze. This
should yield heat indices into the 110-112 degree range for
several hours in the afternoon. There is even potential for a
few areas to see heat indices over 112 (Extreme Heat Warning
criteria) for a brief period of time. Current thinking is that
the duration of these higher heat indices will be short and that
the best course of action is to maintain the ongoing Heat
Advisory for the entire forecast area.

One potential fly in the ointment is the potential for cloud
cover to keep temperatures from reaching the expected potential.
Within the northwest flow aloft, a steady stream of mid/high
clouds associated with upstream convection could be a bit more
opaque than expected and sufficient to keep highs a few degrees
lower than forecast.

Wednesday: A strong mid-level ridge will prevail over the
Rockies and Plains, with the eastern periphery building into the
southeastern states. At the surface, weak high pressure will
develop over the southeast. Between the ridging aloft and the
weak high pressure at the surface, temperatures will soar into
the mid to upper 90s. Dew points are forecast to reach into the
mid to upper 70s, highest along the coastal corridor behind the
sea breeze. This set up will yield heat index values 105-110
range. A Heat Advisory may be required across portions of the
forecast area, especially the coastal corridor. One complicating
factor will be the chances for afternoon convection. Models are
not in good agreement regarding the degree of coverage. The
current forecast features PoPs in the 25-35% range, but if this
trends wetter with future updates the threat for a Heat Advisory
would decrease. Heat and humidity will drop to near normal
values towards the end of the week as a front approaches the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The 12z TAF period begins with VFR conditions at KCHS, KJZI,
and KSAV. Winds will be southwest through the morning and into
the afternoon ahead of the sea breeze. Behind the sea breeze,
winds will turn more southerly with gusts into the 15-20 kt
range possible through the evening. Overall, thunderstorm
chances are expected to be low this afternoon. The main chance
of shower and thunderstorm impacts will come late in the evening
at KCHS and KJZI. For now, these chances continue to look too
low to include any mention in the TAF`s.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are
possible Wednesday and Thursday due to showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and Tonight: A weak front will approach the region today,
yielding an increase in both winds and seas this evening into
tonight. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the
Charleston County nearshore waters and the 20 to 60 nm offshore
GA waters. Conditions within the Charleston Harbor will need to
be monitored for a possible short-duration Small Craft Advisory
as gusts could approach 25 knots this afternoon and evening.

Wednesday through Sunday: Winds and seas will decrease
Wednesday morning to below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Southeasterly flow will dominate across the marine waters
through the weekend, with gusts topping out around 10 to 15
knots through Friday. Gusts are forecast to shift to the SW and
increase to 15 to 20 knots this weekend as a cold front
approaches the region.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

July 28:
KCHS: 101/1949
KCXM: 100/1936
KSAV: 102/1949

July 29:
KCHS: 100/1993
KCXM: 99/1999
KSAV: 103/1993

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 29:
KCHS: 80/2016
KCXM: 85/1999
KSAV: 82/1878

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for GAZ087-088-099>101-114-115-137-216>219-238>241.
SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for SCZ040-042>045-147>152.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ360-384.

&&

$$

BSH/CPM