North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

754
FXUS62 KCHS 090629
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
229 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to
  impact portions of southeast Georgia and southeast South
  Carolina each day through the upcoming weekend.

- 2) The potential for coastal flooding will persist into
  Friday, primarily for portions of the southeast South Carolina
  coast.

- 3) There is a High Risk of rip currents along the entire
  coastline today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue to impact portions of southeast Georgia and southeast
South Carolina each day through the upcoming weekend.

Today: The surface setup will begin to change as the surface
high starts the day to the east of the Outer Banks. This will
allow the flow pattern across the area to take on more of an
easterly component. The high will push a bit further east into
the afternoon which will help to washout the surface trough and
allow the low-level flow to turn southeasterly through the
evening. The result will be turning the convergence zone west to
east and the track of showers and thunderstorms will be pretty
much straight west. For the morning and the early afternoon,
this should once again put the focus on the area from around
Chatham County up through Beaufort County. By the late afternoon
and into the evening, the flow will start to tip more southerly
and should start to point more into the Colleton and even the
Charleston County coast. The hi-res models suggest that the best
chance for locally significant rainfall will be in the area
from Chatham County to Beaufort County. The 09/00z HREF is a
distinct outlier showing the envelope of heavier rain extending
up through Colleton County and lower Charleston County. This
will need to be monitored as the HREF brings some 50% 1 inch or
more in 3 hour and some 30% 3 inch or more in 3 hours
probabilities into an area from Fripp up through the Charleston
County coast south of the Charleston metro area.

From Thursday onward the pattern will transition to a more
typical summertime pattern with the subtropical high to the east
and diurnal convection. Friday and Saturday could bring
increased coverage and a locally heavy rainfall threat thanks to
some shortwave energy across the Southeast.

KEY MESSAGE 2: The potential for coastal flooding will persist
into Friday, primarily for portions of the southeast South
Carolina coast.

Astronomical tide levels will peak with the upcoming evening
high tide cycle, then remain elevated through Friday. Winds will
remain out of the northeast this morning, then gradually turn
more east-northeast and eventually due east through the
evening. Wind speeds will be less than the past few days, but
still strong enough to maintain the large positive tidal
departures that have been building for the past few days.

Charleston Harbor: The upcoming morning high tide (~7:15 am)
will be interesting with an astronomical value of 5.79 ft MLLW.
We would need to see a 1.21 ft departure to produce minor
coastal flooding and Charleston is currently running around
1.2-1.3 ft. We will continue to watch trends and might need a
Coastal Flood Advisory for the morning cycle. The evening high
tide cycle (~7:45 pm) looks more certain with an astronomical
value of 6.55 ft MLLW. We might lose some of the departure with
winds diminishing and taking on a more easterly component, but
certainly still enough to exceed 7 ft MLLW. Thursday evening
will likely bring another round of minor coastal flooding, and
potentially even Friday. However, winds will become less
favorable.

Fort Pulaski: The peak astronomical tide will come this evening
(~7:45 pm) at 8.44 ft MLLW. A tide departure of 1.06 ft would
be required to reach the minor coastal flood threshold of 9.5 ft
MLLW. There is a good chance as winds will remain favorable and
the site is currently running a departure of 1.88 ft. It will
be close and we will monitor for needing a Coastal Flood
Advisory. Thereafter, astronomical tides will decrease along
with winds which will likely end the threat of coastal flooding
for the week.

KEY MESSAGE 3: There is a High Risk of rip currents along the
entire coastline today.

Breezy east-northeasterly flow combined with an east-
southeasterly swell will support a High Risk of rip currents
across all the local beaches today. However, the flow is
expected to turn more east- southeasterly on Thursday allowing
for marine conditions improve. Simultaneously, the swell will
start to taper back as well. A Moderate Risk of rip currents is
in place along the Georgia beaches on Thursday as a result,
while a Low Risk of rip currents remains along the South
Carolina beaches.

If you are caught in a rip current, stay calm, do not fight the
current, and swim parallel to the shoreline to escape it.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The 06z TAF period begins with VFR conditions at KCHS, KJZI,
and KSAV. This will soon change as offshore showers are headed
for KSAV in the next 30-60 minutes. These showers will likely
bring brief MVFR conditions to KSAV and could last through about
09z. Thereafter, KSAV will likely remain the focus for shower
and thunderstorm potential through the morning and into the
afternoon. As we move into the late afternoon and early evening,
there is potential for showers to begin to impact KJZI and
KCHS. Model guidance is mixed on how far north the axis of
showers will shift into the evening and whether or not it will
reach KJZI and KCHS. For now we have introduced prevailing
showers at both sites around 22- 23z. Also, there could be
periods of MVFR ceilings at all 3 TAF sites throughout the late
morning and the afternoon. Confidence is exact timing isn`t
particularly high and this will need to be refined with future
issuances.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Periodic flight restrictions will be
possible each day through the weekend within scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon
hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Daybreak: Marine conditions remain elevated across the
local waters through the overnight as persistent east-
north-eastlery flow continues between high pressure to the
north and low pressure to the south. Winds have generally eased
from their peak earlier this evening, however speeds remain
around 15-20 kt across the nearshore, with somewhat stronger
winds farther offshore. Seas remain elevated and somewhat
choppy, especially across the outer waters, where buoy
observations earlier were showing seas as high as 7-8 ft. Seas
should gradually subside through daybreak as the pressure
gradient relaxes, although 4-6 ft seas will likely linger across
the offshore waters into the early morning. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will remain possible over the waters, with
locally higher winds and seas possible in and near any
thunderstorms.

Today: As easterly flow continues to weaken throughout the day,
Small Craft Advisories (SCAs) will expire across the marine
zones by the early morning. Expect wind speeds to range from
10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt possible, before becoming
lighter tonight. More favorable marine conditions are expected
by Thursday as winds decrease to generally 5-10 kt and seas
continue to diminish.

Thursday through Sunday: Tranquil marine conditions should set
up on Thursday through the weekend as light south-southeastly
flow (5-10 kt) remains on tap. Seas will generally range from
2-3 ft through the period.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for GAZ217-219-239-241.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for SCZ148>151.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ360-362-364.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ384.

&&

$$

BSH/Dennis