North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

912
FXUS62 KCHS 271756
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
Issued by National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1256 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Aviation section was updated for the 18Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Unseasonably cold weather will occur through early next
  week.

- 2) Developing low pressure off the Southeast coast could bring
  winter weather to the region this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Unseasonably cold weather will occur through
early next week.

As strong arctic high pressure (~1040 mb) continues to usher
cold, dry air into the Southeast, temperatures are forecast to
stay well below normal for an extended period of time. The ESAT
NAEFS highlights this well with values ranging from -2 to -4
through Saturday, with values ranging from -4 to -6 on Sunday
and Monday. There is fairly high model confidence, as the IQR
shows a 2 to 3 spread in minimum temperatures from tonight
through Friday, followed by increasing uncertainty Saturday
through Monday with a wider 4 to 6 IQR spread.

Tonight: Expect minimum temperatures to drop into the low to
mid 20s across the interior southeast South Carolina and
southeast Georgia counties with upper 20s to low 30s along the
coastline tonight. It`s slightly warmer than the previous night,
a signal well captured by the 12Z HREF and 13Z NBM, both
indicating less than a 5% probability of apparent temperatures
below 20 degrees. A Cold Weather Advisory does not seem
warranted for tonight, and we have opted not to issue one.

The modest warming trend in temperatures, along with calm
winds, should negate the need for Cold Weather Advisories
tonight through Friday.

An impressive, strong arctic high (~1050 mb) will surge into
the Southeast Friday night, ushering in another period of colder
temperatures lasting into early next week. Itll be a very
frigid weekend, with minimum wind chill values potentially
reaching the single digits early Sunday morning, suggesting
additional Cold Weather Advisories and possibly an Extreme Cold
Warning may be warranted. A climate section has been added below
to increase awareness of the unusually cold temperatures
expected this weekend, a signal well represented by the 13Z NBM.


KEY MESSAGE 2:...Developing low pressure off the Southeast coast
could bring winter weather to the region this weekend.

There remains good deterministic and ensemble model agreement
that a sharp trough will drop southward out of the Great Lakes
region Friday night with a deep closed low potentially dropping
into GA and the Carolinas Saturday night. As this occurs aloft,
a surface low is expected to develop off the Southeast coast on
Saturday then lifting off to the northeast on Sunday. This could
potentially produce a developing and expanding precipitation
shield on the backside of the low that spreads across the
forecast area across a time period including Saturday through
Sunday morning.

While there is good model agreement regarding this general
synoptic evolution, there remains considerable uncertainty in
the details. One of the primary variables is just how far south
the upper low digs which in turn will have significant
implications concerning the surface low development offshore and
its proximity to the coast. As of now, the GFS/GEM solutions
are definitely further south with the upper low and produce a
surface low track that is more favorable to greater coverage of
precipitation across the forecast area. On the other hand, the
EC isnt as far south with the upper low and yields a surface
low that is further offshore and less conducive to
precipitation. Also, given that even in the wetter GFS/GEM
solution the forecast area is still on the periphery of the
precipitation shield, it is hard to have anything other than low
confidence regarding winter weather potential. One aspect that
is a more high confidence is the robust agreement in the depth
of arctic air across the area. Guidance advertises an uncommonly
cold airmass and model soundings would support a pretty clean
rain/snow precipitation type situation. There are also questions
regarding the depth of moisture and potential extension into
the dendritic growth zone aloft, further adding to the low
confidence surrounding this potential winter weather event.

The forecast will continue to explicitly advertise rain/snow
but it continues to be too early to attempt to nail down the
likelihood, timing, extent, and magnitude of any snow
accumulations.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
27/18Z TAFs: VFR conditions should prevail through the 18Z TAF
period.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Predominantly VFR through the
extended period, with increasing potential for impacts Saturday
associated with developing low pressure offshore of the
Southeastern coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight through Friday: Breezy northwesterly winds have
gradually weakened since this morning, with speeds now ranging
from 10 to 15 kts across the marine zones. A lingering northerly
wind swell remains in the nearshore waters, but should quickly
subside over the next few hours. A brief surge of west-northwest
wind flow is possible on Wednesday night; however, conditions
are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.
Otherwise, marine conditions remain generally quiet.

Confidence continues to increase that a significant marine
event will impact the local waters this weekend. A strong blast
of arctic air will begin Friday night as high pressure builds in
from the northwest and a low pressure system develops just
offshore. This strong cold advection combined with a tightening
pressure gradient associated with the surface low will produce
increasing winds and seas across the local waters. Small Craft
Advisories appear to be a near certainty with this event, and
there is also an increasing probability of widespread gales as
well. While details remain a bit uncertain, conditions are
expected to ramp up Friday night then peak in the Saturday
through Saturday night time period. The surface low should pull
away from the area through Sunday, but overall conditions will
remain hazardous across the local waters.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Low Temperatures:

January 31:
KCHS: 15/1966
KCXM: 19/1966
KSAV: 16/1966

February 1:
KCHS: 21/1977
KCXM: 23/1900
KSAV: 23/1977

February 2:
KCHS: 19/1980
KCXM: 17/1917
KSAV: 18/1917

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

January 31:
KCHS: 36/1948
KCXM: 34/1936
KSAV: 37/1909

February 1:
KCHS: 38/1980
KCXM: 36/1900
KSAV: 38/1900

February 2:
KCHS: 38/1980
KCXM: 38/1898
KSAV: 38/1951

Record Snowfall:

January 31:
KCHS: 0.6/1977
KSAV: 1.3/1977

February 1:
KCHS: Record not established.
KSAV: Record not established.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KCLX radar remains out of service. Critical parts are on
order and are now scheduled to arrive Wednesday. Users should
use adjacent WSR-88D sites, including KCAE, KLTX, KJAX, KVAX and
KJGX.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...CHS
DISCUSSION...CHS
AVIATION...CHS
MARINE...CHS