North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

428
FXUS62 KCHS 260632
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
232 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A cold front will push into the area from the north later
  today, bringing increased rain chances for the afternoon and
  evening.

- 2) Breezy and dry conditions Monday could support elevated
  fire danger.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front will push into the area from the
north later today, bringing increased rain chances for the
afternoon and evening.

Aloft, the tail end of a sharp shortwave trough extending
across NC will brush the northern half of SC today and then move
off the coast tonight. At the surface, a cold front will
continue to draw closer and aligned across southeast SC through
the morning, before the building high surges in from the north
late today and through the evening. The forecast area already
sits within a moist environment ahead of the front, with
precipitable water values on the order of 1.3-1.5 inches. This
will continue to support isolated to scattered shower activity
through the late morning hours. As we get into the afternoon,
moisture pooling ahead of the front and the presence of the
developing sea breeze should yield a bit more instability than
we saw on Saturday. Model soundings support MLCAPE in excess of
500 J/kg, especially along the coastal corridor. Hi-res model
runs and the HREF generally paint the same picture with
convection initiating either across the Pee Dee and Grand Strand
regions or the Charleston Tri-County, and then gradually
propagating down the coast ahead of the surging high. Overall,
still not much support for severe weather though there is ~25
kts of mid-level flow with improved instability parameters. We
still consider the severe threat to be quite low. Rainfall
potential still looks quite spatially varied and dependent on
the exact placement and movement of showers and thunderstorms.
It is notable that the HREF has contours of 30+ percent of
greater than an inch in 3-hours, mainly along the coast. So
there is some potential for localized areas of 0.50-1.00" of
rain, while the majority of locations still see considerably
less than that. Then through the evening and into the overnight,
much drier and cooler air will arrive as the high surges in
from the north.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Breezy and dry conditions Monday could support
elevated fire danger.

A drier airmass will settle into the region Monday as high
pressure builds south from the Northeast, leading to falling dew
points into the upper 40s to mid 50s, and possibly lower inland
during peak heating. This will result in minimum RH values
generally in the 35- 45% range. Northeast winds will be breezy
in the morning with gusts around 20-25 mph, easing through the
afternoon. While the current forecast features conditions shy of
critical thresholds, fuels remain unusually dry. Considering
the ongoing drought and dire forestry conditions, even marginal
RH and wind conditions could still support enhanced fire
behavior.

Although some rainfall is expected today, coverage is expected
to be scattered, and not all areas will receive meaningful
wetting rain. As a result, elevated fire weather conditions will
be possible, especially where little or no rainfall occurs. A
Fire Danger Statement could be needed for portions of the
forecast area. We will continue to assess, especially after
today`s rainfall event.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The 06z TAF period begins with VFR conditions at KCHS, KJZI,
and KSAV with isolated showers around the area. These showers
will continue for the next several hours, but should have no
impact on the terminals even it they take a direct hit. Guidance
suggests there could be a period of MVFR ceilings after sunrise
that could last for a few hours through around midday. The main
forecast challenge concerns shower and thunderstorm potential
this afternoon. Showers and storms should first be near KCHS and
KJZI, with development beginning around 17z or so. Showers and
storms are expected to be concentrated along the coast so there
is enough confidence to introduce TEMPO groups at KCHS between
18-20z and 18-21z at KJZI for thunderstorms. This activity
should then shift down the coast to the KSAV area roughly for
the 20-23z time period. While overall confidence is a bit lower,
but still high enough to go with a TEMPO for thunder there as
well. Once the shower and thunderstorm potential ends this
evening, we should see northeast flow spread in with ceilings
lower into the MVFR range for the very end of the TAF period.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Showers and possibly isolated
thunderstorms associated could bring reduced vsbys/cigs midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
Through tonight: The local waters will sit ahead of an
approaching front for most of the day with wind speeds mostly
around 10 knots but up to 10-15 knots at times. The big change
will come late today and into the evening when high pressure
builds in and a northeast surge pushes through. Northeast wind
gusts into the 25-30 knot range will spread across the SC waters
through the early morning hours and reach the GA waters soon
thereafter. Small Craft Advisories will be issued for all waters
outside Charleston Harbor, where wind gusts should mostly top
out around 20-23 knots.

The pressure gradient across the local waters will relax Monday
evening into Tuesday as high pressure settles and weakens.
Small Craft Advisories will gradually drop off Monday night.
Outside of a slight wind surge Wednesday with an approaching
front, no additional marine concerns through the upcoming week.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Monday for AMZ360.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT
     Monday for AMZ362.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM EDT Monday for AMZ364.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday to 5 AM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ384.

&&

$$

BRS/BSH