North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

536
FXUS62 KCHS 120721
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
221 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Warm and breezy today ahead of an evening cold front.

- 2) Frost/freeze conditions are possible Friday night through
  Sunday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Warm and breezy today ahead of an evening cold front.

Today: Breezy west-southwesterly winds will develop across the
region well ahead of a cold front advancing across the Appalachian
Mountains early morning, then reaching the local area mid-late
afternoon. Gusts up to 25-30 mph will be common late morning and
afternoon while sfc temps warm into the mid-upper 70s one last day
this week. Guidance continues to support a dry forecast with
soundings indicating minimal low-mid lvl moisture within a westerly
flow off the sfc prior to and during fropa. Although modest mixing
out of sfc dewpts is possible early afternoon, RH levels should only
dip into the mid-upper 30s inland while breezy winds occur, thus
limiting a fire danger risk locally.

Tonight: Strong cold air advection occurs in wake of the front
overnight with a west-northwest flow bringing noticeably cooler air
across the local area. This could maintain gusty west-northwest
winds across much of the area into early-mid evening hours, but a
notable decrease in low-lvl wind fields is expected through the
night post fropa. Overnight lows should generally range in the mid
40s inland to low-mid 50s at the beaches.

Lake Wind: Breezy west-southwesterly winds developing across the
area late morning and persisting through afternoon hours could
approach 25 kt prior to and shortly after cold fropa today. Low-lvl
wind fields trend weaker by sunset, which should support winds
remaining just below Lake Wind Advisory criteria despite favorable
low-lvl mixing in wake of the cold front. Conditions will continued
to be monitored for a possible Lake Wind Advisory issuance for Lake
Moultrie today.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Frost/freeze conditions are possible Friday night
through Sunday night.

The first potential frost of the season will arrive on Friday
night/Saturday morning as a cold air funnels into the region in the
wake of the cold front. Expect low temperatures to drop into the mid
30s across portions of the interior southeast South Carolina and
southeast Georgia. This combined with light winds could yield the
formation of patchy frost. However, the greatest chance for frost
will be on Saturday night/Sunday morning with areas west of I-95 in
southeast Georgia and along/west of I-95 in the Lowcountry with lows
in the low to mid 30s and light winds. Another chance of frost is
possible on Sunday night/Monday morning as lows persist in the mid
30s across the interior counties again.

Nov 12 01z NBM 10km neighborhood probabilities for emergency
management warming shelter planning:

Friday Night/Saturday Morning:
                              Inland Areas    Coastal Corridor
Temps 35 degrees or colder:      30-60%              <5%
Temps 32 degrees or colder:          5%              <5%
Temps 30 degrees or colder:         <5%              <5%

Saturday Night/Sunday Morning:
                              Inland Areas    Coastal Corridor
Temps 35 degrees or colder:      70-90%           10-30%
Temps 32 degrees or colder:      30-60%              <5%
Temps 30 degrees or colder:      10-30%              <5%

Sunday Night/Monday Morning:
                              Inland Areas    Coastal Corridor
Temps 35 degrees or colder:      40-70%           10-30%
Temps 32 degrees or colder:      10-30%              <5%
Temps 30 degrees or colder:      10-20%              <5%

Frost Advisories, Freeze Watches and Freeze Warnings may
eventually be needed, especially for areas roughly inland of
US-17 in the Lowcountry and I-95 in Southeast Georgia.

Detailed information on first freeze dates for the area can be
found online at:
https://www.weather.gov/media/chs/climate/AverageFirstLastFreezeDates.pdf

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Gusty west-southwest winds (around 25 kt) are expected to develop
late morning and persist through late afternoon hours today at
CHS/JZI/SAV terminals, then trend weaker through evening hours.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through 06Z
Friday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: After a cold front passes through on
Thursday evening, west-northwesterly winds will remain elevated
through Saturday morning with gusts up to 20 kts possible.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through Tonight: West-southeast winds will steadily increase
across local waters this morning and afternoon as the pressure
gradient tightens ahead of a cold front approaching the coast late
afternoon into early evening hours. A Small Craft Advisory has
already started across offshore Georgia waters and will begin by mid-
late morning across nearshore SC/GA waters. Gusts upwards to 25-30
kt are possible prior to and following fropa late day and overnight,
but a notable decrease in low-lvl wind fields should support
improving conditions by daybreak Friday despite a favorable low-lvl
mixing setup. Seas should build up to 4-6 ft, largest across
offshore Georgia waters. On another note, there is also a risk for
wind gusts to approach 20-25 kt across the Charleston Harbor prior
to and immediately following cold fropa this afternoon. Conditions
will need to be monitored for a possible Small Craft Advisory
issuance today.

Friday through Monday: A brief period of weakening winds is expected
across local waters Friday, with conditions below Small Craft
Advisory levels. However, a secondary episode of cold air advection
and tightening of the pressure gradient across local waters could be
sufficient for Small Craft Advisory level conditions Friday night
across offshore Georgia waters. Otherwise, high pressure will
continue to build into the region through the weekend into early
next week with wind/sea conditions remaining well below Small Craft
Advisory level thresholds.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EST
     Friday for AMZ360-362-364.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for AMZ384.

&&

$$