North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

209
FXUS62 KCHS 282339
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
739 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Aviation section was updated for the 00z TAF issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A multi-day coastal flooding event will slowly diminish
  through the remainder of this week.

- 2) Sustained northeast winds will lead to a High Risk for rip
  currents along our South Carolina and Georgia beaches through
  Thursday.

- 3) Dry and warming conditions will continue through the week
  before rain chances increase late weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A multi-day coastal flooding event will slowly
diminish through the remainder of this week.

The full moon was on 10/26, while the lunar perigee occurs
today. Therefore, astronomical tides will be trending lower the
rest of this week with the morning/early afternoon high tide
being the higher of the two tide cycles. Additionally,
northeasterly winds are expected to gradually ease, especially
towards the end of this week. This will also cause tidal
departures to lower.

Charleston Tide Gauge: Moderate coastal flooding is forecasted
with the Thursday morning high tide cycles, followed by minor
coastal flooding Friday, and Saturday. Coastal Flood Advisories
will be needed.

Fort Pulaski Tide Gauge: We may briefly hit minor coastal
flooding with the Thursday morning high tide. A Coastal Flood
Advisory may be needed.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Sustained northeast winds will lead to a High
Risk for rip currents along our South Carolina and Georgia
beaches through Thursday.

Gusty northeast winds, elevated tides and persistent elevated
seas will keep a high risk for rip currents in place for all
beaches into Thursday. Winds will begin to back off for Friday,
but lingering elevated tides and seas will push the rip current
risk into the high range for the Georgia beaches with moderate
for the beaches of the South Carolina Lowcountry. An elevated
risk will linger into the weekend into early next week as winds
and seas build in response to the formation of a coastal trough
just offshore.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Dry and warming conditions will continue through
the week before rain chances increase late weekend.

High pressure will begin to slowly breakdown by Friday as upper
ridging aloft deamplifies. Conditions should remain dry through
Friday night, although a few marine-based showers could impact
the Georgia and far southern South Carolina coast Saturday as a
weak coastal trough forms just offshore. Temperatures will
steadily warm into the weekend, with highs pushing 80 away from
the coastline by Friday. Overnight lows initially in the 50s
will warm into the 60s.

A rather drastic shift in the synoptic pattern is expected this
Sunday and Monday as a southern stream shortwave pivots across
the Deep South and Southeast States. There remains much
uncertainty on how strong this trough and any corresponding
surface reflection will be. This uncertainty is best reflected
in the LREF QPF fields which show large 6-hour interquartile
ranges during this time. While the specifics are yet to be
determined (degree of forcing aloft, amount available
instability, etc), it does appear conditions will become
increasingly unsettled this weekend into early next week with
higher rain chances. High pressure will reestablish itself
Tuesday into Wednesday, although rain chances could begin to
increase late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night as both
moisture and lift begin increase ahead of a cold front
approaching from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The 00z TAF period begins with VFR conditions at KCHS, KJZI, and
KSAV. The only forecast issue concerns the potential for morning
ceilings to impact the terminals again. Overall, the setup is
the same as it was for this morning. Model guidance is mixed and
not particularly aggressive with lowering ceilings too much.
Favoring a bit of a persistence forecast, we have maintained a
period of MVFR ceilings at all 3 TAF sites starting around or
just after sunrise and continuing through about mid morning.
Otherwise, northeast winds will remain elevated and could
produce some gusts into the 15-20 knot range in Thursday
afternoon.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Gusty northeast winds are possible
Saturday into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: High pressure will persist inland, maintaining
elevated northeast winds and seas. Small Craft Advisories remain
in effect for all of the waters out to 20 nm (excluding the
Charleston Harbor) and for the GA waters from 20-60 nm. The
highest waves will continue to be further offshore.

Thursday through Sunday: Elevated northeast winds and seas will
keep conditions at or above Small Craft Advisory conditions
into Friday. Seas may drop below 6 ft across the nearshore
waters briefly for Friday, but this should be short lived. Both
winds and seas will increase again over all nearshore and
offshore waters Saturday into Monday as the gradient tightens a
bit with the development of a coastal trough just off the coast.
Winds are typically highest over the nearshore waters in these
scenarios where the pressure gradient tends to tighten the most
and this matches the 28/13z NBM rather well. Expect northeast
winds of 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt to prevail Saturday and
continuing into Monday. Seas will build 4-6 ft Saturday with 5-7
ft Sunday into Monday. Winds in the Charleston Harbor looks to
peak just shy of advisory thresholds, but it could be close at
times, especially near the harbor entrance.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for GAZ217-219-
     239-241.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for SCZ148>151.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ360-362.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for AMZ364.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ384.

&&

$$