North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

416
FXUS62 KCHS 211832
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
232 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Dry conditions and below normal temperatures will continue
  into early next week.

- 2) Strong northeast flow this weekend and into early next
  week will result in several coastal hazards including tidal
  flooding, rip currents, high surf, and beach erosion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry conditions and below normal temperatures
will continue into early next week.

High pressure will continue to be the primary weather feature
in control across the Southeast through this weekend and into
early next week. The high gets reinforced Friday through
Saturday as a 1035+ mb high settles in across the New England
and provides a fresh shot of cooler than normal air. The warmest
days will come today and Thursday with widespread mid to upper
70s, only 2-3 degrees below normal. Then for Friday, low 70s
will be more common followed by upper 60s to low 70s for
Saturday. By Sunday we should start to see temperatures moderate
more into the low to mid 70s, continuing into early next week.
It should be noted that persistent and gusty northeast winds
will make it feel even a bit cooler over the weekend.

Regarding low temperatures, Thursday morning will likely be the
coolest thanks to good radiational cooling conditions
anticipated tonight. We should see widespread low to mid 40s
tomorrow morning, with the potential for an isolated location to
reach 39 briefly. Through the weekend, morning low will still
be below normal but persistent northeast flow will certainly
prevent ideal radiational cooling and keep things a bit mixed,
especially along the coast. The result should yield more of a
inland/coast gradient with the coastal corridor remaining
several degrees higher than inland locations. Overall,
widespread upper 40s to low 50s is expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Strong northeast flow this weekend and into
early next week will result in several coastal hazards including
tidal flooding, rip currents, high surf, and beach erosion.

High pressure will settle in across New England Friday into
Saturday, driving an enhanced pressure gradient along the
Southeast coast this weekend and into early next week. This
setup will yield strong northeast flow across the area, with the
potential for coastal hazards to extend into at least early
next week.

Coastal Flooding: Astronomical tides will continue to rise the
rest of this week, this weekend, and into next week as we
approach the upcoming lunar perigee (10/28) and the next full
moon (10/26). In fact, the highest astronomical tides for all of
2026 will come next Tuesday (10/27) and Wednesday (10/28) when
Charleston peaks at ~6.9 ft MLLW and Fort Pulaski peaks at 8.9
ft MLLW. We are already seeing the effect of a prolonged period
of elevated northeast flow along the coast as current tidal
departures are running in the 1.5-2.0 ft range. With another
period of strong northeast flow on the way this weekend, these
large tidal departures will persist and start to overlap with
increasing astronomical tides, providing increased probabilities
of seeing a multi-day coastal flooding event for the entire
coast. Minor coastal flooding could begin as early as the
upcoming late afternoon high tide cycle, and this minor flooding
potential will continue through the rest of the week. Over the
weekend and into next week, the potential for moderate to even
major coastal flooding will increase at Charleston. At Fort
Pulaski, minor to moderate coastal flooding will be possible
during this time period. Of note, the morning high tide cycle
will be the dominant high tide of the day.

Other coastal hazards: Strong northeast flow and increased wave
action will support an elevated rip current risk over the
weekend and into early next week. Also, high surf with breaking
wave heights of 5 ft or higher will be possible and High Surf
Advisories could be needed. The combination of elevated tides,
increased wave action, and persistent gusty northeast winds will
almost certainly produce at least minor beach erosion.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 18z
Thursday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions will continue. Gusty
northeast winds are expected this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Through tonight: Northerly winds will be strongest through the
afternoon with speeds in the 15-20 knot range and a few gusts to
25 knots possible in the outer waters. Overnight, speeds are
expected to come down more into the 10-15 knot range. Seas will
remain elevated with 3-5 ft out to 20 nm and 5-6 ft beyond 20
nm. The Small Craft Advisory for the outer GA waters remains in
effect.

The main event for the local waters will come this weekend and
into early next week. As high pressure strengthens to the
northeast, the pressure gradient will tighten across the local
waters and yield an extended period of strong northeast flow.
The potential for gales will increase notably beginning Friday
night and will continue through Sunday night. Strong gale
conditions, with gusts of 40-45 knots, will be possible as well
especially across the outer waters beyond 20 nm. Gale Watches
and Warnings will very likely be needed for all waters outside
of Charleston Harbor.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ384.

&&

$$