North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

251
FXUS62 KCHS 300552
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1252 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail for the remainder of the week,
followed by a cold front moving through the area this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Through Daybreak: A considerably colder and drier airmass
continues to filter into the region this morning. Temperatures
are still expected to drop into the upper 20s well inland to the
upper 30s at the beaches. Wind speeds will slowly come down,
but enough wind will be present through daybreak to push wind
chills into the mid-upper 20s with some spots across far
interior Southeast Georgia possibly bottoming out in the 20-25
deg range. A few spots could see wind chills get as low as 20
degrees, which is right at Cold Weather Advisory criteria, but
as noted for the past few forecast cycles, the situation looks
too marginal and brief to support the issuance of an advisory.
The issuance of a Special Weather Statement highlighting brief
advisory conditions will be considered should wind chills
approach 20 degrees. Winds on Lake Moultrie continue to subside
and the Lake Wind Advisory has been cancelled.

Today: High pressure centered over the Southern Plains this
morning will slowly build across the Deep South into the
Southeast U.S. today. Temperatures aloft will be rather cold
with the area remaining under the influence of a deep, long-
wave trough across the eastern CONUS. Temperatures at 850 hPa
are expected to bottom out in the -1 to +2C range this
afternoon with the mean 925-700 hPa flow forecast to hold too
much of a westerly component with the approach of yet another
shortwave to become fully downslope dominated. A blend of the
30/01z NBM with output from full sun low-level thickness
schemes supports highs in the upper 40s/lower 50s.

Tonight: It will be another cold night for the region, but
there is uncertainty on how much boundary layer decoupling will
occur and how it will impact overnight lows. There are signals
that the boundary layer will decouple this evening as a nebulous
pressure pattern develops over the Southeast U.S. downwind of
the southern Appalachians. There are signals that the gradient
may tighten up a bit after midnight in response to a shortwave
crossing the central Appalachians and inducing a weak lee-side
trough from the South Carolina Upstate into western Virginia.
This could disrupt the radiative process.

30/00z guidance is mixed on how much recoupling will occur
early Wednesday which is reflected in a wider than normal range
of low temperature forecasts considering there will likely be
some degree of a radiational component. A blend of the colder
NAM/GFS/ECMWF statistical guidance packages with the warmer
30/01z NBM was used to construct overnight lows. This approach
favors a bit more decoupling and a stronger radiational cooling
regime, especially over southern South Carolina. It should be
noted direct output both the RAP and H3R runs are about a full
category warmer across the area and favor a bit more wind
overnight. Adjustments to the low temperature forecast will most
certainly be needed as trends become more apparent later today.
Wind chills are forecast to be a degree or two colder than lows
across southern South Carolina (mid-upper 20s) and about 3-4
degrees colder across Southeast Georgia (lower- mid 20s) where a
bit more wind will linger through sunrise. Conditions are not
expected to drop to Cold Weather Advisory thresholds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
While not quite as cool, Wednesday will remain on the cooler
side of normal as northwesterly flow persist. Ample sunshine
should help make it feel a little warmer, with afternoon highs
expected to be in the lower to mid 50s. Overnight, lows dip down
into the mid 30s across inland areas while areas near the
beaches are a bit warmer in the upper 30s to lower 40s. A weak
front moves through on Thursday, bringing a resurgence of
westerly winds across the area which become marginally gusty in
the teens, along with high temperatures in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. Overnight into Friday, radiational cooling brings
overnight temperatures back into the mid 30s inland and up to
the lower/mid 40s along the coast. Temperatures continue to
moderate on Friday as a warm front lifts across the region,
bringing afternoon temperatures in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Behind the warm front, overnight lows into the weekend will be
much warmer in the mid 40s to lower 50s. A weak shortwave looks
to move across the area on Saturday, accompanied by a surface
low pressure system in some models. This will bring chances for
light to moderate rain showers starting early Saturday morning
and ending overnight into Sunday, along with temperatures in the
lower to upper 60s. Ensemble clustering analysis shows that
model agreement is fairly high, with the two dominant clusters
showing 70-80% probabilities for a quarter inch of rain across
across southeast South Carolina, and 50-70% probabilities across
southeast Georgia. Probabilities for half an inch of rain are
about 20-30% less across the board. Temperatures cool into the
mid 50s to lower 60s on Sunday as a cold front moves through,
warming up into the lower to mid 60s on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
30/06z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 31/06z.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions expected to prevail
through the rest of the week. Chances for rain return on
Saturday, along with possible flight category restrictions from
both lowered cigs and vsbys.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Daybreak: Winds and seas will slowly diminish through
daybreak. Small Craft Advisories remain in force for all
nearshore waters through 5 AM and the Georgia offshore waters
through 1 PM. Winds on Charleston Harbor continue to subside
and the Small Craft Advisory there has been cancelled.

Through Tonight: Northwest winds 10-15 kt will persist across
the waters through tonight with high pressure displaced well the
west and southwest. Seas will subside 2-4 ft this afternoon and
1-3 ft tonight.

Wednesday through Saturday: Winds remain out of the northwest
throughout most of Wednesday as surface high pressure builds
across the southeast. Winds pickup overnight into Thursday as a
front moves towards and then through the area, bringing the
waters from Savannah to Altamaha Sound 20-60nm out to Small
Craft Criteria, due to wind gusts near 25 knots for a few hours
Thursday morning. Westerly winds remain gusty throughout the
day, weakening overnight into Friday. Chances for rain return on
Saturday as a cold front begins to move through, with gusty
winds near Small Craft Criteria possible, especially in the
outer Georgia waters Saturday morning/afternoon.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for
     AMZ350-352-354.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ374.

&&

$$