North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

727
FXUS62 KCHS 101802
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
202 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All Key Messages, sections and subsections were updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact portions
  of Southeast Georgia and Southeast South Carolina each day
  through the upcoming weekend.

- 2) The potential for coastal flooding will persist into
  Friday, primarily for coastal portions of Charleston and
  Berkeley Counties.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers and thunderstorms will continue to
impact portions of Southeast Georgia and Southeast South
Carolina each day through the upcoming weekend.

This Afternoon/Tonight: The risk for showers/tstms will
gradually shift inland through the afternoon/evening as the sea
breeze matures and propagates to the west. Convection will be
mostly airmass driven in the absence of any meaningful forcing
mechanisms. A few stronger cells could certainly occur where
updrafts can become enhanced in the vicinity of mesoscale
boundary collisions with gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall and
cloud-to-ground lightning being the primary hazards. Rain
chances should generally end with the passage of the sea breeze.
Later tonight, weak warm air advection/isentropic ascent could
spark off a few nocturnal showers prior to daybreak, mainly
across the Lowcountry. Some marine-based convection could also
brush coastal areas through the night with the bulk of the
activity remaining over the coastal waters, especially near the
west wall of the Gulf Stream.

Friday through the Weekend: On Friday the upper level pattern
will begin to shift as the subtropical high pressure over the
western Atlantic shifts eastward. To the west a short wave
trough aloft will slowly progress east from Saturday into
Sunday. The southwesterly flow aloft will allow for efficient
moisture advection into the region, with PWATs forecast to
increase to 2+ inches Saturday. Coverage of showers and
thunderstorms on Friday will be isolated to scattered at best as
the synoptic pattern begins to shift. Greater coverage of
precipitation is forecast on Saturday and the forecast features
numerous to widespread showers and storms. While a strong to
marginally severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, ML CAPE
values are forecast to be up around 2000 J/kg, heavy rainfall is
the main hazard through the weekend. Very weak storm motions
could result in localized heavy rainfall, leading to minor
flooding issues within low-lying and poor drainage areas.


KEY MESSAGE 2: The potential for coastal flooding will persist
into Friday, primarily for coastal portions of Charleston and
Berkeley Counties.

Tides in the Charleston Harbor are expected to peak 7.0-7.2 ft
MLLW with the evening high tide. This will result in minor salt
water flooding across coastal portions of Charleston and
Colleton Counties and a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued
from 7-10 PM. Diminishing departures should keep tide levels
with high tide Friday evening from reaching 7.0 ft MLLW,
although it could be close. The current total water forecast
keeps the tide peaking at 6.9 ft MLLW, but further refinements
may be needed.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
10/18z TAFs:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Risk for shower/tstm impacts look greatest at
KCHS through about 20z ahead of the sea breeze. A TEMPO group
for 4SM SHRA was highlighted to reflect this. Some activity may
also be near KSAV through about 21z, but the bulk of this should
remain west of that terminal. VCSH was used through 21z to
highlight this. Activity should remain well to the west of KJZI
since that terminal will be well behind the sea breeze.
Overnight, there are some signals that some low status, may be
some light fog, could impact inland Southeast South Carolina.
Some of this may brush KCHS prior to daybreak. Some very light
shallow ground fog with a scattered deck at 500 ft was included
at KCHS to trend.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Periodic flight restrictions will be
possible each day through the weekend within showers and
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight: Southerly winds around 10 kt will persist with
seas 2-3 ft.

Friday through Monday: Generally tranquil marine conditions
should continue on Friday through early next week, with winds
mostly 5 to 10 kts as high pressure remains the dominant feature
across the Atlantic. Southwest winds are expected on Friday,
becoming more southerly to southwesterly through the weekend
before turning westerly around 5 kts on Monday. The main concern
for mariners will be scattered showers and thunderstorms, with
the greatest coverage likely Friday afternoon through Saturday
and additional storms possible on Sunday and Monday. Any
stronger storm could produce frequent lightning, heavy rain with
reduced visibility, and brief gusts well above prevailing
winds. Seas will range from 2-3 ft through the period.

Rip Currents: Lifeguard groups have not reported any rip
currents so far today and beach webcams suggest suggest little,
if any, meaningful swell is reaching the surf zone with glassy
conditions. The rip current risk has been lowered from moderate
to low for all beaches for the remainder of the afternoon. The
rip risk will remain low for both Friday and Saturday.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for
     SCZ149-150.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$