North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

688
FXUS62 KCHS 301941
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
341 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Above normal temperatures will prevail across the region
  through the weekend and into early next week. The next round
  of increased humidity and elevated heat indices will come this
  weekend and Heat Advisories could be needed.

- 2) Summertime convection returns on Friday and is expected to
  persist through the holiday weekend and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Above normal temperatures will prevail across
the region through the weekend and into early next week. The
next round of increased humidity and elevated heat indices will
come this weekend and Heat Advisories could be needed.

Ridging aloft will remain the dominant synoptic feature through the
week and into the holiday weekend. At the surface high pressure will
extend into the region from the north, resulting in north to
northeasterly flow at the surface. While this synoptic set up will
yield above normal temperatures, with highs forecast in the low to
mid 90s, the northeasterly flow will advect lower dew points into
the region. The lower dew points will help keep heat index values
held down, generally in the upper 90s to around 100 today through
Thursday. Friday and heading into the holiday weekend subtropical
high pressure off the southeast coast will strengthen, driving a
more typical southwesterly surface flow. This will allow dew point
to rise to normal values for early July. The combination of the
increasing dew points and high temperatures remaining in the mid to
upper 90s will yield heat index values in the 105 to 110 range. Heat
Advisories may be required for portions of the forecast area through
the holiday weekend.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Summertime convection returns on Friday and is
expected to persist through the holiday weekend and into next
week.

As the aforementioned ridge begins to weaken as it continues
eastwards, a weak surface trough will set up along the coast as
surface high pressure develops over the western Atlantic. With flow
aloft increasingly getting an eastward component, low-mid level
moisture will steadily increase into the weekend. Between the
previously mentioned surface trough and the expected afternoon sea
breeze, the return for daily scattered showers and thunderstorms is
therefore expected, primarily in the afternoon hours with storm
coverage waning into the evening. Given daily instability values
climbing into the 2-3 kJ/kg range, strong to severe thunderstorms
can`t be ruled out. However, with the lack of shear, organized
convection is not expected with mostly cold-pool driven storms to
monitor. Given PWATs as high as 1.5-2.0", locally heavy rainfall can
also be expected.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Prevailing VFR at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV through the 18Z TAF period.
Afternoon showers/tstorms will be isolated today, with the best
coverage across SE GA. A PROB30 group has been maintained at
KSAV to account for the low end risk of TSRA impacts to the
terminal. Otherwise winds will shift to the S/SE with the
afternoon sea breeze, transitioning back to NE overnight and
into tomorrow morning.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms may bring brief
flight restrictions starting Friday and persisting into the holiday
weekend. Impacts are mostly likely each afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: The local waters are situated between an area of low
pressure to the east and high pressure inland, creating
northeasterly flow across the region. Observations show mostly 10-15
knots of sustained flow, and with a few gusts up into the lower 20s,
with perhaps a few gusts into the mid 20s across the waters from
Edisto, SC to Savannah, GA as the pressure gradient maxes out this
afternoon. Overnight, winds will be a bit more out of the east-
northeast, with speeds around 15 knots. Seas will tick upward a bit,
and average 2-4 feet for most of the period.

Extended Marine: Very weak low pressure off the Southeast Coast will
yield winds from the NE or E through Thursday, with a surface high
pressure slowly shifting toward the coast from the east-central
CONUS. As the low further weakens and dissipates into Thursday
night, winds will become southeasterly on Friday. Afterwards,
surface high pressure will again build across the Atlantic region
and become the dominant feature. This will swing winds around to
become out of the southwest by early Saturday, becoming south-
southeasterly throughout the afternoon. Winds are expected to remain
largely below small craft criteria, with highest chances for short-
lived gusts into the mid 20s occurring behind the expected afternoon
sea-breezes.

Renewed chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms return to
the waters Thursday afternoon. A typical summertime pattern
continues into the weekend, bringing daily chances for scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

Rip Currents: The combination of gusty NE winds and a 2 ft swell at
9 to 10 seconds will generate a Moderate Risk of rip currents at
Charleston county and southeastern Georgia beaches, while a slightly
more onshore flow will keep beaches from Edisto, SC to Savannah, GA
in the Low Risk. For Thursday, 3 ft/9 sec swells continue, with
winds turning slightly more easterly, generating a Moderate Risk for
rip currents for areas from Edisto, SC to Altamaha Sound, GA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

July 4:
KCHS: 98/2023
KSAV: 99/1997

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 4:
KCHS: 79/2016
KSAV: 79/1931

July 5:
KCHS: 78/2017
KSAV: 78/2016

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$