North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

063
FXUS62 KCHS 220702
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
302 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All Key Messages and section were updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Dry conditions and below normal temperatures will continue
  into early next week.

- 2) Strong northeast flow this weekend and into early next
  week will result in several coastal hazards including tidal
  flooding, rip currents, high surf, and beach erosion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry conditions and below normal temperatures
will continue into early next week.

Through Daybreak: Strong radiational cooling is in progress
early this morning. The boundary layer has fully decoupled and
the airmass remains very dry beneath clear skies. Thermal falls
will remain steady through daybreak. Temperatures were lowered
significantly from the 22/01z NBM with many locations already
near or below its forecasted low temperatures as of 22/05z. The
NBM warm bias is typically significant in strong radiational
cooling regimes and this morning is no different. Temperatures
are generally running about 2-5 degrees colder than 24 hours
ago. Expect most areas inland to drop into the upper 30s/lower
40s with lower-mid 40s prevalent across the coastal corridor and
mid 50s at the beaches.

Today and Tonight: The surface pattern across the Southeast U.S.
will remain unchanged through tonight with strong high pressure
remaining in control. Another day of full insolation is
expected with low-level thickness schemes supportive of highs in
the mid-upper 70s, consistent with the various deterministic
and statistical guidance. There are signals that a weak sea
breeze could develop along the Georgia coast late this
afternoon, but no meaningful impacts are expected other than a
uptick in surface dewpoints. The boundary layer looks to
decouple quickly again after sunset with calm winds prevailing.
Some weak recoupling could occur late across the coastal
corridor with guidance hinting the pressure gradient could
tighten a bit a few hours before daybreak Friday. Temperatures
were once again adjusted down quite a bit from the NBM given the
expected radiational setup (calm/light winds, clear skies and a
dry airmass). Lows will range from the lower-mid 40s inland to
the upper 50s/near 60 at the beaches.

Friday through Wednesday: High pressure will strengthen over
the Mid- Atlantic States Friday while a coastal trough develops
along the Southeast U.S. coast, persisting through the weekend
and into early next week. This will cause NE winds to increase,
ushering in cooler temperatures, despite dry conditions and
abundant sunshine.

High temperatures on Friday will be in the upper 60s to around
70 degrees across our SC counties, and the lower 70s across our
GA counties. Temperatures moderate into the lower to middle 70s
on Saturday, then rising another 1-2 degrees on Sunday, followed
by persisting on Monday. Highs should rise to near normal by
the middle of next week. Low temperatures will remain below
normal inland, except warmer at/near the beaches.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Strong northeast flow this weekend and into
early next week will result in several coastal hazards including
tidal flooding, rip currents, high surf, and beach erosion.

High pressure will settle in across New England Friday into
Saturday, driving an enhanced pressure gradient along the
Southeast coast this weekend and into early next week. This
setup will yield strong northeast flow across the area, with the
potential for coastal hazards to extend into at least early
next week.

Coastal Flooding: Astronomical tides will continue to rise the
rest of this week, this weekend, and into next week as we
approach the upcoming lunar perigee (10/28) and the next full
moon (10/26). In fact, the highest astronomical tides for all of
2026 will come next Tuesday (10/27) and Wednesday (10/28) when
Charleston peaks at ~6.9 ft MLLW and Fort Pulaski peaks at 8.9
ft MLLW. We are already seeing the effect of a prolonged period
of elevated northeast flow along the coast as current tidal
departures are running in the 1.5-2.0 ft range. With another
period of strong northeast flow on the way this weekend, these
large tidal departures will persist and start to overlap with
increasing astronomical tides, providing increased probabilities
of seeing a multi-day coastal flooding event for the entire
coast. Minor coastal flooding could begin as early as the
upcoming late afternoon high tide cycle, and this minor flooding
potential will continue through the rest of the week. Over the
weekend and into next week, the potential for moderate to even
major coastal flooding will increase at Charleston. At Fort
Pulaski, minor to moderate coastal flooding will be possible
during this time period. Of note, the morning high tide cycle
will be the dominant high tide of the day.

Coastal Hazards: Strong northeast flow and increased wave
action will support an elevated rip current risk over the
weekend and into early next week. Also, high surf with breaking
wave heights of 5 ft or higher will be possible and High Surf
Advisories could be needed. The combination of elevated tides,
increased wave action, and persistent gusty northeast winds will
almost certainly produce beach erosion, the most significant
occurring around the elevated high tides.

Lake Winds: Gusty northeast winds are expected to develop on
Lake Moultrie Friday night and continue to early next week. A
Lake Wind Advisory could be needed for winds 20 kt or greater
and waves 2-3 ft. The combination of steady northeast winds and
significant wave action could yield some lakeshore erosion
along the southwest side of the lake along with some overwash.
This is includes areas from roughly Pinopolis to Blacks Camp
near Cross.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
22/06z TAFs:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 23/06z.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Gusty northeast winds are expected
this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight: North to northeast winds will persist into
tonight with speeds generally 15 kt or less, highest over the
South Carolina and Georgia offshore legs. Seas will average 2-3
ft across the nearshore waters, 3-5 ft over the South Carolina
offshore waters and 3-6 ft over the Georgia offshore waters. A
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Georgia offshore
waters through tonight.

Friday through Monday: High pressure will strengthen over the
Mid-Atlantic States Friday while a coastal trough develops along
the Southeast U.S. coast, persisting through the weekend. The
interaction between these two features will cause marine
conditions to rapidly deteriorate Friday. Winds and seas will
substantially increase, first necessitating a period of Small
Craft Advisories on Friday (including the Charleston Harbor
Friday night), and then Gale headlines for all of our Atlantic
waters by late Friday night, lasting through the weekend. Strong
gales are possible during this time period, especially for the
20-60 nm waters. There will be steep, short period wind-driven
waves as well. Winds and seas start to trend lower on Monday,
but there we may need to maintain marine headlines through
Tuesday.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ384.

&&

$$