North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

704
FXUS62 KCHS 031902
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
302 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Warm temperatures will continue, with isolated to
  scattered showers and thunderstorms possible through Saturday.

- 2) A cold front will bring increased rain chances Sunday
  afternoon into Monday morning, followed by cooler
  temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Warm temperatures will continue, with isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible through
Saturday.

Through this evening: Diurnal showers, and an embedded
thunderstorm or two, will continue to gradually progress inland.
The best axis of convergence and instability is currently
aligned just inland of I-95 across southeast GA extending up
into Hampton and Allendale counties. This activity is being
fueled by a narrow corridor of MLCAPE values up to around 1,000
J/kg. While updraft strength has been pretty meager, there is
enough moisture and slow storm motion to produce some pockets of
decent rainfall. Gage amounts are mostly in the 0.25-0.50"
range, but MRMS data suggests there are some isolated locations
of more than an inch. In fact, a very localized heavy rainfall
event has been ongoing along the Effingham/Chatham County line.
Several home weather stations have recorded 3-4 inches of rain,
meanwhile just 5 miles away KSAV has already measured 0.01: so
far. The severe threat remains virtually zero and this axis of
showers and storms will push inland through the late afternoon
and more into central GA/SC by the early evening.

Saturday is expected to bring another warm day with highs
rising into the low to mid 80s away from the immediate coast.
Without the benefit of the subtle coastal trough moving onshore
like today, Saturday is expected to bring far less coverage of
showers and storms. Instead, the bulk of the activity is
expected to be much further inland. The best chance for isolated
to scattered diurnal convection will be across the interior
counties including Tattnall, Candler, Evans, Bulloch, Jenkins,
Screven, and Allendale. Much like today, no severe threat is
expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front will bring increased rain chances
Sunday afternoon into Monday morning, followed by cooler
temperatures.

The mid-levels will consist of a broad trough over the eastern
half of the U.S. Sunday and Monday. At the surface, a cold front
will be approaching our region from the west and northwest on
Sunday. The front will usher a plume of deep moisture from the
Gulf into our region. PWATs should peak ~1.7" which is above the
90% mark for CHS sounding climatology, per SPC. The combination
of lift and moisture should generate some rain across our area
from Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. While there remain
some differences in QPF amounts between the models, the general
consensus is storm total below 0.3". So this won`t be enough
rain to put much of a dent in the drought or cause flooding
issues. Otherwise, POPs generally peak in the chance to likely
category. As far as the thunderstorms potential, there is
minimal instability in place ahead of the front. So there could
be a few rumbles of thunder ahead of and with the front, but the
severe risk is very low. The front will move through Sunday
night, followed by drier conditions by later Monday. As for high
temperatures, ahead of the front they`ll remain well above
normal, generally in the 80s, except cooler at/near the beaches.
Behind the front, temperatures drop to near seasonal levels on
Monday, then generally continuing through the middle of next
week. Temperatures rise towards the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Overall, VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI,
and KSAV through 18z Saturday. For the first hour or two of the
TAF period, we could still see MVFR ceilings at KCHS and KSAV as
well as a brief shower at KSAV. All of this activity should
continue to push inland through the late afternoon hours.
Overnight, there is potential for fog and stratus but current
guidance favors it inland of the TAF sites. Perhaps KSAV has the
best chance of seeing a period of fog or stratus right around
sunrise, but confidence is too low to include in any of the
TAF`s. Towards the end of the 18z TAF period, there could again
be isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. However,
this activity should set up much further inland than it has so
far today.

Extended Aviation Outlook: A cold front will bring higher
probabilities for flight restrictions Sunday afternoon through
Monday morning, followed by gusty northerly winds on Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday night: Overall, conditions should remain
pretty quiet and below Small Craft Advisory thresholds. Winds
will continue to be primarily onshore with speeds mostly topping
out in the 10-15 knot range. Seas are expected to be 2-4 feet
across the nearshore waters and 3-5 feet across the outer
waters.

Next Week: A cold front will then approach from the west and
northwest on Sunday, moving through the waters Sunday night.
Expect a surge in winds and seas behind the front. Small Craft
Advisories should be needed across most of our coastal waters
Monday, and could persist across portions of our waters into the
middle of next week.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$