North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

101
FXUS62 KCHS 012304
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
704 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Key Message 1 and the Aviation section was updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Locally heavy rainfall will remain a threat for portions of
  southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina through
  Tuesday.

- 2) Minor coastal flooding is possible along the Charleston
  and Colleton County coastline with the Tuesday evening high
  tide.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Locally heavy rainfall will remain a threat for
portions of southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina
through Tuesday.

Rest of Tonight: Areas of convection continue to fire in the
vicinity of a weak sea breeze/outflow composite boundary that
pushed west through the Charleston Tri-County and into parts of
Colleton and Beaufort County. KCLX shows another round of
convection moving south/southeast across the eastern Midlands
and western Pee Dee. This activity will push into the Charleston
Tri-County and possibly Colleton County by mid-evening,
bringing additional rainfall to the area. Despite earlier
convection, there is still a fair amount of MLCAPE in place, so
this activity could hold together before slowly weakening as it
approaches the coast. Gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall and
isolated flooding remain the primary concerns.

Later tonight, there are signals that convection may re-fire
over the western Midlands along an outflow being generated by
convection moving east of Columbia. If it forms, it would drop
south/southeast into interior Southeast Georgia and possibly
parts of the Lowcountry. Confidence is only moderate at best if
this area will develop. Again, gusty winds, locally heavy
rainfall and isolated flooding would be the main issue.

Tuesday: A cold front will sink south of the area on Tuesday,
as high pressure builds in from the north. Aloft, a mid level
trough will extend into the Southeast with a shortwave rounding
the base later in the day. Guidance is still a bit mixed on
convective activity, but we should see at least scattered
showers and thunderstorms during the first part of the day
before drier air works in from the north and activity eventually
pushes south of the Altamaha River. There could be pockets of
heavier rainfall, but the flooding threat looks low and focused
more to the south.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Minor coastal flooding is possible along the
Charleston and Colleton County coastline with the Tuesday
evening high tide.

Gusty northeast winds will develop along the southeast SC coast
on Tuesday behind a passing cold front. This northeast flow
will produce a surge in tide levels, especially around the time
of the Tuesday evening high tide (occurring around 1015 PM). The
astronomical tide level is 5.5 ft MLLW, so it would require a
rather anomalous 1.5 ft departure to reach the minor coastal
flood threshold of 7 ft MLLW. For context, historical analysis
shows that a departure of 1.5 ft or higher has only occurred
with ~7% of all minor coastal flood events on record. Still,
minor coastal flooding is possible, and a Coastal Flood Advisory
could be needed for the Charleston and Colleton county coasts.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
02/00z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI: Risk for shower impacts will linger through for much
of the evening hours. A cluster of storms moving across the
eastern Midlands will make a run for both terminals by 01-03z.
TEMPO groups for MVFR conditions were introduced to account for
this. A few tstms have been observed at times, but as the
atmosphere slowly stabilizes ahead of the activity, the risk
for a mention of tstms is too low to justify a mention at this
time. Another round of convection could develop over the western
Midlands and move southeast. Much of this should remain to the
west, but a PROB30 group for MVFR vsbys in RA was included
05-08z. A cold front should push through the terminals before
daybreak with a period of IFR cigs possible, especially at KCHS.
IFR cigs should lift to MVFR by mid-morning and linger through
the day at both terminals as east to northeast winds become a
bit gusty.

KSAV: VFR this evening. There are signals that a cluster of
showers/tstms could develop across the western Midlands along
outflow from storms near Columbia. It is uncertain if this
activity will develop, but it could make a run for KSAV early
Tuesday morning if it does. Fro now a PROB30 group for MVFR
conditions in TSRA was included 06-09z to account for this.
Otherwise, a cold front will cross the terminal before daybreak
Tuesday. MVFR cigs are expected to filter in behind the front
and linger through the day as east to northeast winds become a
bit gusty.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Periodic flight restrictions are
possible through Tuesday due to scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Patchy overnight fog and/or low stratus are also
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight through Saturday: No hazardous weather is expected
across the waters tonight. The time period of most concern is
Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure will build south into the
region, leading to increasing northeast winds and seas. Solid
Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected across all waters.
There is even a period where gusts could approach gale force
late Tuesday night into Wednesday, particularly in the outer
waters beyond 20 nm, but this threat looks too marginal for any
Gale Watches at this point. While winds will begin to subside
Wednesday night into Thursday, 6 ft seas could maintain
Advisories for portions of the waters into at least part of the
day Thursday. No concerns for Friday and Saturday.

Rip Currents: Gusty northeast winds and increasing swell will
lead to an enhanced risk of rip currents through mid week. A
Moderate Risk is forecast at all area beaches for Tuesday. On
Wednesday, the forecast features a Moderate Risk across SC
beaches and a High Risk at GA beaches.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Tuesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ360.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ362.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Tuesday to 11 AM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ364.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ384.

&&

$$