North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

890
FXUS62 KCHS 132344
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
744 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Key Message 1 and the Aviation section were updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Unseasonably hot weather with strong to severe
  thunderstorms will continue through at least Sunday.

- 2) Showers and thunderstorms expected to continue into early
  next week with a persistent summertime pattern.

- 3) Minor coastal flooding possible along Charleston and
  Colleton County coasts during evening high tides this weekend
  into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Unseasonably hot weather with strong to severe
thunderstorms will continue through at least Sunday.

On Sunday, the H5 ridge weakens slightly across the region. At
the sfc, a trough is forecast to slide east across the region,
supporting winds from the WSW. The WSW winds may keep the sea
breeze pinned along the coast through early afternoon, then
should begin to drift inland. Similar to today, temperatures
should exceed 90 degrees before noon, then peak in the mid to
upper 90s by mid afternoon. The hot temperatures combined with
dewpoints in the 70s should yield heat index values between 105
to 110 degrees across the coastal counties. A Heat Advisory
could be needed for the coastal counties for Sunday. In
addition, moderate instability and DCAPE may support another
round of severe pulse-type thunderstorms. SPC has highlighted
the region with a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Showers and thunderstorms expected to continue
into early next week with a persistent summertime pattern.

A classic early-summer pattern will remain established across
southeast South Carolina and southeast Georgia through the
weekend into early next week. Atlantic high pressure will remain
anchored offshore while mid-lvl ridging across the western
Atlantic periodically interacts with embedded shortwave
perturbations rotating around the ridge periphery. Low-lvl flow
remains generally south to southwest, maintaining a rich
maritime tropical airmass through next week. This pattern will
yield afternoon showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and
evening.

Forecast soundings indicate PWAT values ranging from 1.9 to 2.3
inches through the period (near the 90th percentile for mid-
June). This combined with surface dewpoints in the low to mid
70s should yield MLCAPE values between 1500-3000 J/kg amid peak
heating. Mid-lvl lapse rates remain relatively modest with
values ranging from 5.5-6.0 C/km, suggesting pulse-type
convection will dominate through the period. Expect the
afternoon seabreeze to push inland each day and collide with
other outflow boundaries, yielding the primary focus for
convection initiation. Weak deep-layer shear should limit storm
organization, however slow storm motions between 10-15 kts
combined with anomalously high moisture content will support
efficient warm-rain processes.

Little change regarding the overall synoptic pattern on Monday
and Tuesday as ensemble means from the GEFS and the EPS maintain
subtropical ridging offshore with weak troughing across the
Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a weak
cold front will approach the region on Monday, and then push
offshore by Tuesday evening. Convection coverage will likely
increase from late morning near the coastline before expanding
more inland in the afternoons. Highest PoPs will likely occur
along and west of I-95 corridor where seabreeze interactions
maximize.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Minor coastal flooding possible along Charleston
and Colleton County coasts during evening high tides this
weekend into early next week.

Breezy south-southeasterly winds post sea breeze each day along
with the upcoming lunar Perigee (June 14th) and New Moon (June
15th) should result in elevated tidal departures above 1/2 ft
this weekend into early next week, setting the stage for minor
coastal flooding along the Charleston and Colleton County coasts
during evening high tide cycles. The latest TWL forecast calls
for 6.9 - 7.1 ft MLLW in the Charleston Harbor this evening, and
similar water levels are possible during evening high tides
into early next week as astronomical influences peak and breezy
onshore winds persist. Coastal Flood Advisories could eventually
be needed for the Charleston and Colleton county coastlines.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The 00z TAF period begins with VFR conditions at KCHS, KJZI, and
KSAV. Remnant evening shower and thunderstorm activity looks as
though it will remain away from the TAF sites. Overnight, there
are no significant fog or stratus concerns. The main forecast
challenge will be the potential for afternoon and evening shower
and thunderstorm activity on Sunday. Current thinking is that
scattered coverage right along the coast could impact the TAF
sites. Therefore, we have added a PROB30 for the 18-22z time
period at all 3 sites.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions expected to prevail
at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals. However, brief flight restrictions are
possible with afternoon showers and/or thunderstorms through
early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: The pressure pattern will support southwest winds
between 10 to 15 kts. Wave heights are forecast to remain
between 2 to 3 ft.

Sunday through Wednesday: Expect generally south-southwesterly
winds with speeds ranging from 10 to 15 kts as Atlantic high
pressure persists across the local waters. A pre-frontal trough
will develop on Sunday yielding an enhanced pressure gradient
leading to wind gusts up to 21-23 kt (possibly 25 kt) overnight
on Monday and overnight on Tuesday. Therefore, there could be
need for Small Craft Advisories for portions of Monday and
Tuesday regarding the elevated winds as the front advances
towards the region. The cold front should pass offshore by
Tuesday evening, and then rapidly move further away across the
Atlantic. Seas should remain below 6 feet throughout the period.

Rip Currents: A Moderate Risk of rip currents is forecast for
Sunday and Monday along the southeast South Carolina and
southeast Georgia beaches given the combination of elevated
winds and a lingering south-southwesterly swell.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

June 14
KCHS: 99/2010
KCXM: 97/1981

June 15
KCHS: 98/2015

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 14
KCHS: 79/2010
KCXM: 81/2010

June 15
KCHS: 80/2010

June 18
KCHS: 78/2015

June 19
KCHS: 79/2025
KCXM: 81/2025
KSAV: 79/1881

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$