North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

577
FXUS62 KCHS 172304
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
704 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated the Aviation section for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Record-setting heat possible on Saturday as dry weather
  continues.

- 2) Minor coastal flooding possible along the South Carolina
  coast with the evening high tides this weekend.

- 3) A cold front will bring low end rain chances Sunday, followed
  by a brief cooldown early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Record-setting heat possible on Saturday as dry
weather continues.

Mid-level ridging continues to prevail across the Tennessee River
Valley as sfc high pressure sits tight overhead. As noted in days
past, this pattern will continue to favor dry conditions and above
normal temperatures, at least through Saturday. Currently have
afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s for a vast majority of our
area, which may put a few daily records in jeopardy (see climate
section below).

Additionally, the latest Drought Monitor indicates D4/Exceptional
Drought over a small portion of interior southeast GA, with a recent
expansion of the D3/Extreme Drought to encompass much of the
remaining area. These persistent, very dry conditions combined with
RH values dipping into the mid-20s ahead of the sea breeze this
afternoon and Saturday afternoon could result in elevated fire
weather concerns, though winds should remain light enough to keep
the threat for rapid wildfire spread limited. Nonetheless, we
encourage folks to exercise caution with any activity that may cause
a spark.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Minor coastal flooding possible along the South
Carolina coast with the evening high tides this weekend.

The combination of the new moon (today) and perigee (Sunday) will
bring elevated astronomical tidal ranges this weekend into early
next week. Minor coastal flooding is possible with the Saturday
evening high tide along the South Carolina coast. Tide levels will
be elevated again with the Sunday evening high tide, but the coastal
flooding threat is uncertain and dependent on the timing of the cold
frontal passage during the day and the direction of the post-frontal
winds.

KEY MESSAGE 3: A cold front will bring low end rain chances Sunday,
followed by a brief cooldown early next week.

Upper level trough and sfc cold front will move in tandem across the
central CONUS Saturday, before pushing into the Carolinas by Sunday.
While the latest forecast has maintained a 20-30% chance of PoPs for
portions of our area, do want to emphasize that there will still be a
lot of dry air in the mid to lower levels to contend with. Thus,
overall probabilities for seeing >0.10" remain less the 25%. With
rain chances remaining minimal throughout the rest of the extended
period, will unfortunately continue to see drought conditions
persist and likely worsen. Otherwise, look for a brief, but notable
cool down to occur in the wake of FROPA Monday and Tuesday as highs
dip back into the 70s. Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s will also
be common during this time. Temperatures then moderate back into the
80s by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR across the region into Saturday. Winds will drop as the
sea breeze weakens into the evening, with winds becoming
southwesterly tomorrow morning away from the coast, while areas
along the coast remain southerly. A sea breeze is expected to
push ashore during the afternoon hours.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Elevated wind gusts are possible Sunday
night into Monday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside of some breezy winds this afternoon along the sea breeze,
should see light winds prevail across the waters this evening.

Otherwise, quiet marine conditions will persist into Saturday with
the region remaining along the western flanks of Atlantic high
pressure centered well offshore. Sea breeze enhancements along the
land/sea interface and Charleston Harbor are likely each
afternoon/evening.

A strong cold front is poised to push through the waters Sunday
afternoon with winds quickly ramping up Sunday night into Monday
morning in response to post-frontal cold air advection and a rapid
tightening of the pressure gradient. North to northeast winds of 20-
30 kt are likely with gusts approaching gale force, especially over
the 20-60 NM offshore zones. Seas look to peak Monday, ranging from
4-6 ft nearshore waters to 7-10 ft over the offshore waters (highest
offshore Georgia waters). Small Craft Advisories are likely and a
Gale Watch/Warning could be needed over the offshore zones.

Rip Currents: A Moderate Risk of rip currents remains in place for
all beaches through Saturday due to the combination of 2-3 ft swell
around 10 seconds, modest onshore flow, and increasing astronomical
influences associated with lunar perigee/new moon. An elevated risk
for rip currents will likely persist through the weekend and
especially early next week as a pinched gradient associated with a
passing cold front supports a gusty northeast wind event along the
Southeast Coast.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

April 17:
KCHS: 91/1967
KCXM: 86/2006
KSAV: 95/1967

April 18:
KCHS: 92/1967
KSAV: 93/1967

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

APT/SST