North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

454
FXUS62 KCHS 131124
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
724 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Aviation Section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Unseasonably hot weather will continue through at least
  Sunday.

- 2) Daily coverage of showers and thunderstorms expected to
  increase through the weekend and into next week as a more
  typical summertime pattern returns to the region.

- 3) Minor coastal flooding possible along Charleston and
  Colleton County coasts during evening high tides this weekend
  into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Unseasonably hot weather will continue through
at least Sunday.

Deep westerly flow will persist today, maintaining oppressively
hot temperatures across the area. The sea breeze will only
slowly creep inland during the afternoon. Farther inland,
relatively dry air aloft should mix down, with surface dewpoints
in the upper 60s to lower 70s for much of the afternoon. The
coastal corridor is expected to see upper 90s temps overlap with
mid to upper 70s dewpoints, where heat indices could reach
105-110F for a few hours. The one question mark is how quickly
diurnal convection spreads cold pools and potentially drops the
temps over a substantial area. There were quite a few spots that
reached criteria on Friday, and today looks like a similar
pattern. We issued a Heat Advisory for the coastal zones but
also included all of Berkeley County, until 5pm.

Sunday will continue the heat wave, with potentially a slightly
larger area of Heat Advisory criteria if the sea breeze makes it
farther inland. We should, however, have pretty good afternoon
convection coverage as a lee trough strengthens.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Daily coverage of showers and thunderstorms
expected to increase through the weekend and into next week as a
more typical summertime pattern returns to the region.

Through the weekend and into next week, the pattern across southeast
GA and southeast SC will gradually shift toward a typical summertime
pattern supportive of showers and thunderstorms each day. Aloft, the
ridging that has been in place for the last several days will break
down and be replaced by a more zonal flow through Sunday. At the
surface, a weak front/trough is expected to drift into the vicinity
Saturday and Sunday before lifting to the north. Overall thinking
remains unchanged in that today and Sunday will result in a modest
increase in convective coverage, given plenty of instability and an
afternoon sea-breeze expected each day.

Similar to what was observed on Friday, mid-level flow will remain
on the weak side throughout the weekend, resulting in storm motions
of only 10-15 knots. Given precipitable water values remaining near
2 inches, locally heavy rainfall will again be a possibility today
and Sunday. The aforementioned front/trough looks to setup just east
of the I-95 corridor today, with additional lift provided by an
afternoon sea-breeze, and will together act as a focus for shower
and thunderstorms development this afternoon. For areas that see
rain today, HREF probabilities for an inch are as high as 70%, with
probabilities for 3 inches on the low end at 10%. Probabilities drop
to isolated 50% chances on Sunday, likely due to marginally faster
storm motions.

Given weak shear, pulse showers and thunderstorms will continue to
remain the primary thunderstorm type today and Sunday. SBCAPE values
of 1500-2000 J/kg will allow for storms to grow quickly, possibly
producing small hail in its initial stages as was observed on Friday
(though freezing levels are a smidge higher), before falling apart
relatively quickly and transitioning to a damaging wind threat as
DCAPE values remain near 1000 J/kg before dissipating.

As we head into the early and middle part of next week, large and
broad troughing is expected to encompass the eastern half of the
CONUS. This will likely result in a more significant increase in
coverage in the early to middle part of next week due to the
combination of the presence of the trough aloft and an approaching
cold front, with some models stalling the front across the area
before washing it out into the middle of next week, with others
pushing it through though warm temperatures remain.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Minor coastal flooding possible along Charleston and
Colleton County coasts during evening high tides this weekend into
early next week.

Breezy south-southeasterly winds post sea breeze each day along with
the upcoming lunar Perigee (June 14th) and New Moon (June 15th)
should result in elevated tidal departures above 1/2 ft this weekend
into early next week, setting the stage for minor coastal flooding
along the Charleston and Colleton County coasts during evening high
tide cycles. The latest TWL forecast calls for 6.9 - 7.1 ft
MLLW in the Charleston Harbor Saturday evening, and similar
water levels are possible during evening high tides into early
next week as astronomical influences peak and breezy onshore
winds persist. Coastal Flood Advisories could eventually be
needed for the Charleston and Colleton county coastlines.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z TAFs: VFR conditions expected for the remainder of the morning
hours with light southwesterly winds. Similar to Friday, scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening,
likely producing TEMPO flight restrictions at times, and have thus
included PROB30 groups at all TAF sites. Guidance has hinted at
storms may develop an hour or two later than initially expected, so
have pushes the PROB30s back an hour at CHS and JZI. The overnight
period into Sunday will see the return of VFR conditions.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail at
CHS/JZI/SAV terminals on Sunday, although TEMPO flight
restrictions are possible with afternoon showers/thunderstorms
throughout the weekend. Chances for flight restrictions increase
early next week with shower/thunderstorm coverage expanding
locally ahead of an arriving cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure will prevail over the marine zones today. S to
SW winds will remain close to 15 knots, with gusts to around 20
knots along the coastline each afternoon associated with the sea
breeze, with conditions remaining below small craft criteria through
Sunday morning. A prefrontal trough begins to form on Sunday,
yielding an enhanced pressure gradient leading to wind gusts in the
low 20 knot range, possibly reaching as high as 25 knots during the
overnight hours into Monday and again Tuesday. A cold front is
expected to move into the vicinity during the early/middle part of
next week, continuing chances for breezy winds, though seas look to
remain below 6 feet.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

June 13
KCHS: 99/2011
KCXM: 96/1998
KSAV: 102/2011

June 14
KCHS: 99/2010
KCXM: 97/1981

June 15
KCHS: 98/2015

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 13
KCHS: 80/2013
KCXM: 82/1998
KSAV: 80/1880

June 14
KCHS: 79/2010
KCXM: 81/2010

June 15
KCHS: 80/2010

June 18
KCHS: 78/2015

June 19
KCHS: 79/2025
KCXM: 81/2025
KSAV: 79/1881

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT this
     afternoon for GAZ217-219-239-241.
SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT this
     afternoon for SCZ045-148>152.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

APT/JRL