North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

810
FXUS62 KCHS 120714
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
314 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday could produce
  locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding. Some storms
  could also become strong to severe.

- 2) Hot and humid conditions will continue today, with slightly
  cooler temperatures Monday and Tuesday.

- 3) Minor coastal flooding is possible during the evening high
  tide cycles today through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday could
produce locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding. Some
storms could also become strong to severe.

Today and Tonight: Aloft, a ridge extending across the western
Atlantic and Gulf will slowly weaken as a trough progresses across
the Mid-Atlantic States. The trough will help nudge a weak cold
front toward northern zones this evening, then slowly southward with
time across Southeast South Carolina overnight, before reaching
Southeast Georgia by around daybreak Monday. Ahead of the front, a
very warm and moist airmass will set the stage for afternoon showers
and thunderstorms locally heading into peak heating, with activity
possibly occurring along a pinned sea breeze initially prior to
across interior South Carolina as the front inches closer to the
region late afternoon into early evening. Moderate instability, weak
shear, strong low-lvl lapse rates and notable DCAPE could support
strong to severe thunderstorms locally with damaging winds being the
primary hazard with strongest activity. The latest SPC Day 1
Convective Outlook continues to advertise a Slight Risk for severe
weather across much of Southeast South Carolina and for areas
along/north of I-16 across Southeast Georgia. A Marginal Risk is in
place for remaining areas south of I-16 across Southeast Georgia.
Similar to the previous day, westerly flow could push precip
activity back toward coastal locations later in the day. Convection
could also persist a bit longer during evening hours given the
arrival of the front overnight.

Although storm motions should be slightly faster than the previous
day, steering flow still remains on the weaker side, and with deep
moisture residing locally (PWATs 2.0-2.5 inches), the potential for
isolated flooding remains locally, especially if multicellular
thunderstorm activity congeals/clusters along boundary collisions
(sea breeze and outflows) during the day and/or occurs across/near
the slowly southward moving/stalling front during the overnight
period. Precip activity could also pose an additional risk for
flooding along coastal locations should it occur during the evening
high tide cycle (see Key Message #3). The latest Day 1 Excessive
Rainfall Outlook highlights Southeast South Carolina and Southeast
Georgia in a Marginal Risk for flash flooding.

Monday and Tuesday: A weak cold front stalling across the region
early week should remain the primary focus for shower and
thunderstorm activity locally early into possibly mid week. A few
thunderstorms could become strong to marginally severe each
afternoon with damaging winds being the primary concern and the
potential for precip activity could linger into night periods given
the vicinity of the front/stalled boundary. Weak low pressure could
develop along this feature as well, and if so would enhance moisture
pooling/convergence locally and increase heavy rainfall potential.
The latest SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook advertises a Marginal Risk
for severe weather across the entire area Monday while WPC
highlights the entire area in Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall
Monday and Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Hot and humid conditions will continue today, with
slightly cooler temperatures Monday and Tuesday.

Before storms start forming in the afternoon, the dangerous heat
wave continues with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s.
Dewpoints will be highest along the coast and up into the tri-county
region in the upper 70s, resulting in heat index values peaking near
110 degrees. Thus, the previously issued Heat Advisory looks to be
in good shape. Inland areas will see a touch less moisture with
dewpoints in the lower 70s, keeping heat index in the lower to mid
100s.

Monday - Tuesday: Slightly cooler air is brought down into the
region as a weak cold front pushes through Monday morning, with the
front remaining across/south of the region into Tuesday. In addition
to the front, the increased cloud coverage and rainfall will bring
high temperatures down into the upper 80s to lower 90s both Monday
and Tuesday. Heat index values may still eclipse 100 for areas along
the coast, with inland areas peaking in the 90s.

H500 heights begin to rise again on Wednesday as the ridge
strengthens, with temperatures rising back up into the lower to mid
90s. Temperatures look to further climb into the mid 90s Thursday
and Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Minor coastal flooding is possible during the evening
high tide cycles today through Wednesday.

Increasing astronomical tides associated with Monday`s lunar perigee
and Tuesday`s New Moon will bring a risk of minor coastal flooding
beginning this evening. The greatest threat is expected Monday and
Tuesday evening as astronomical tides continue to increase, mainly
along the coastal Charleston and coastal Colleton Counties.
Additionally, heavy rainfall occurring near or during the time of
the evening high tide cycles could exacerbate flooding.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions should prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 16Z
Sunday. Shower/thunderstorm chances increase during afternoon hours,
with CHS/JZI likely to see the greatest impacts in regards to gusty
winds and reduced vsbys. However, similar impacts are possible at
SAV as the afternoon progresses. PROB30 groups for thunderstorms,
gusty winds (15-25 kt) and reduced vsbys (4SM) remain between 20-24Z
today, although adjustments will likely be needed based on trends.
Additional shower/thunderstorm activity is possibly during overnight
hours Sunday night into early Monday as a front approaches the area,
and could result in flight restrictions during the 00-06Z timeframe
Monday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Shower and thunderstorm coverage, along
with risks of associated restrictions, will remain elevated through
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through Thursday: Ahead of an approaching cold front, winds
will remain out of the west this morning, becoming breezy out of the
southwest as the sea breeze pushes ashore this afternoon. Similar to
the past couple days, afternoon thunderstorms are possible and will
likely bring a risk of strong winds along with them. A weak cold
front will gradually settle into the South Carolina waters Sunday
evening into Monday, causing winds to weaken and become more
variable. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase across
the coastal waters through Tuesday as the front sags south, with a
few storms capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts,
frequent lightning, and locally higher seas. Outside of convection,
winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk for rip currents will remain from the
South Santee River down to Savannah today, due to 1-2 ft swells with
wave periods up to 9 seconds along with increasing tidal influences
from the upcoming lunar perigee on Monday. In addition, SSW winds
will likely generate a moderate longshore current, possibly
supporting rip currents near piers and jetties.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 12:
KCHS: 79/2020

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for GAZ217>219-239>241.
SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for SCZ045-148>152.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$