North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

338
FXUS62 KCHS 222352
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
752 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Aviation section was updated for the 0Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Breezy and cooler weather arrives behind a cold front
  Wednesday and Thursday.

- 2) The threat for coastal flooding will increase mid to late
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Breezy and cooler weather arrives behind a cold
front Wednesday and Thursday.

A wedge of high pressure will strengthen across the Carolinas and
Georgia Wednesday, likely forcing a cold front across far southern
zones early-mid morning, then south of the Altamaha River before
noon. The position of the front and strengthening wedge will play
the largest role in precip coverage locally, limiting the risk to a
few rain showers only across inland and northern areas. Best chances
for precip should be along the I-95 corridor in Southeast Georgia,
where warmest temps prevail early. Scattered showers along with a
few thunderstorms are possible in this area, but the threat for a
stronger thunderstorm has lowered based on an earlier time of fropa.

Cold air advection and a tightening pressure gradient associated
with the nearby wedge will likely support breezy conditions
Wednesday afternoon and Thursday. Northerly winds could gust upwards
to 20-25 mph Wednesday afternoon/night, then up to 25-35 mph
Thursday, strongest near coastal areas. Conditions appear to fall
just short of Wind Advisory criteria over land, but could warrant a
Lake Wind Advisory across Lake Moultrie, especially Thursday.
Temperatures will be noticeably cooler than previous days post
fropa, with highs only reaching the mid-upper 70s Thursday and
Friday, prior to gradually warming into the 80s this weekend.
Overnight lows should also dip into the low-mid 50s across the
interior late week.

KEY MESSAGE 2: The threat for coastal flooding will increase
mid to late week.

As a full moon approaches on 9/26, breezy northeast winds develop
Wednesday and linger into Friday, which may result in coastal
flooding issues as tidal departures rise. Will likely see minor
coastal flooding Wednesday evening along the Charleston and Colleton
county coast, and again on Thursday evening. Latest guidance would
indicate even the Friday morning high tide may see minor coastal
flooding, with another round expected for the evening high tide.
Thursday evening and Friday evening both have potential for reaching
moderate flood stage in the Charleston Harbor.

Impacts are less clear moving down the rest of the southeast South
Carolina coast and into southeast Georgia, with the latest guidance
keeping water levels below minor flood stage at Fort Pulaski. The
two high tides where minor flood stage cannot entirely be ruled out
yet are Thursday and Friday evening.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Prior to the 0Z TAFs, KCLX detected several showers and
isolated thunderstorms near the terminals. Each TAF will
highlight VCSH through 3Z this evening. A wedged high is
forecast to build across the region tonight, resulting in
strengthening NE winds and lowering ceilings. MOS and forecast
soundings indicate a round of MVFR ceilings may develop during
the pre-dawn hours and persist until the early afternoon. Once
mixing deepens in the morning, northeast winds are forecast to
develop gusts around 20 kts.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail at all
terminals late this week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight: Marginally breezy northeast winds this afternoon
will remain at similar strength into the overnight hours, with
periodic showers and thunderstorms capable of gusty winds and
frequent lightning.

Wednesday-Friday: A cold front will be pushing through during the
morning hours on Wednesday, with a strong surge in northeasterly
flow as the pinched pressure gradient (aka the wedge) settles in.
Breezy winds ramp up during the morning hours, with wind gusts of 25
to 34 knots remaining across the local waters into Friday afternoon.
There is a 30-55% chance for Gales for areas 20+nm off the coast,
with the trend being increasing probabilities for a larger spatial
area. Given the breezy winds, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect
for all near-shore zones, as well as the zone from Savannah to the
Altamaha River, GA from 20-60nm out. A Gale Watch from Thursday
evening into Friday was considered, but would like to see more data
before committing to that. In addition, wave heights of 5-8 ft will
likely accompany the breezy winds for areas 10+ nm away from the
coast Thursday morning through Friday evening before winds begin to
weaken.

Saturday-Sunday: The wedge continues to weaken, further decreasing
the wind strength throughout the day. Seas will remain unsettled,
with offshore zones (20+nm offshore) seeing 6ft+ waves continuing
into the evening hours before decreasing below 6 ft.

Rip Currents: There is a Moderate risk for rip currents along
GA beaches Wednesday as northerly winds and increasing swell
occurs behind a cold front. On Thursday, a strong coastal low
strengthens well offshore of Virginia, favoring a continuation
of breezy winds, building wave heights and 5-6 ft swells with
near 8 second periods along the coast. This setup will further
increase the risk for rip currents along the entire SC/GA coast,
and should result in a high rip current risk at all area beaches
Thursday.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Wednesday to 5 PM EDT Friday
     for AMZ360-362.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 11 PM EDT Friday
     for AMZ364.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Sunday
     for AMZ384.

&&

$$