North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

070
FXUS62 KCHS 032325
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
725 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Above normal temperatures expected to impact the area
  during the next 7 days with humidity levels increasing late
  weekend into next week. Heat Advisories possible starting
  Sunday, then each afternoon through much of next week.

- 2) Typical summertime convection returns on Sunday, with
  chances increasing further into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Above normal temperatures expected to impact the
area during the next 7 days with humidity levels increasing late
weekend into next week. Heat Advisories possible starting Sunday,
then each afternoon through much of next week.

A strong ridge will hold across the region this weekend and
throughout much of next week, setting the stage for above normal
high temperatures in the mid-upper 90s each afternoon and possibly a
few spots that touch 100 degrees. Sfc dewpts will remain relatively
low today and Saturday, dipping into the mid 60s across inland areas
during peak heating hours. The combination of heat and moisture
supports heat index values around 100 degrees today, then in the 100-
105 degree range on Saturday as moisture levels steadily increase
and a south/southeasterly wind shifts a marine layer onshore. Sunday
still looks like the first day where a larger area of heat index
values in the 108-110 range are possible, with the greatest risk for
Heat Advisory criteria being met along the coastal corridor where
sfc dewpts remain the mid-upper 70s during peak heating hours.
Expect similar conditions with the mid-upper lvl ridging holding
across the Southeast and an afternoon onshore flow in place along
the western periphery of the Atlantic sfc high. Heat Advisories
could be needed each afternoon for much of the week, especially
along the coastal corridor. However, slightly higher shower and
thunderstorm coverage associated with a nearby approaching front
could limit heat index values mid-week. Outside of this possibility,
daily record high temperatures and record high minimums could
be challenged at times throughout the week. See the Climate
Section below for details.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Typical summertime convection returns on Sunday, with
chances increasing further into next week.

As this strong upper-lvl ridge slowly breaks down over the holiday
weekend, weak troughing will develop across the Eastern seaboard as
a shortwave skirts across the U.S./Canadian border. This pattern
will allow for moisture to return to the region with PWATs soaring
to ~2 inches. As a result, the typical summertime afternoon
convection will make it`s reappearance as well on Sunday (esp.
across southeast Georgia). Thereafter, the chances for afternoon
showers and thunderstorms should continue through the mid-to-late
week. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe
depending on how much instability can build each afternoon before
the seabreeze kicks into the region. 12Z model guidance seems to
support a high CAPE, low shear environment throughout the week,
meaning afternoon convection will likely be short-lived (pulse-
like), rather than long-lived, organized convection. Therefore, the
main threats with these thunderstorms will be damaging wind gusts
and locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 00Z
Sunday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Afternoon showers and thunderstorms may
bring brief flight restrictions late this weekend into early next
week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight: South/southeast winds along the western periphery
of an Atlantic high will top out near 10-15 kt this afternoon and
evening (near the land/sea interface), then eventually turn south-
southwest late. Seas will average between 2-3 ft.

Saturday through Tuesday: As an upper-lvl ridging slowly breaks down
over the holiday weekend, weak troughing will develop across the
waters on Sunday. Southwesterly flow should persist across the
Atlantic in the early morning of the 4th, before switching around to
south-southeasterly in the early afternoon. This set-up will yield a
typical summertime pattern for the waters as the highest winds will
be located along the land/sea interface each afternoon as the
seabreeze forms and pushes inland. It`s possible to see gusts 22-23
kt along the immediate coastline + across the local waters (including
the Charleston Harbor) as this happens. Expect the winds to slightly
veer each night through this period, but should be south-southeasterly
throughout the daylight hours. Seas will range from 2- 3 ft on Saturday
and Sunday, before increasing to 3-4 ft on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

July 3:
KCHS: 98/2019

July 4:
KCHS: 98/2023
KCXM: 98/1902
KSAV: 99/1997

July 5:
KCHS: 100/1993
KSAV: 100/1902

July 7:
KCHS: 99/1954

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 5:
KCHS: 78/2017
KCXM: 82/2016
KSAV: 78/2016

July 6:
KCHS: 79/1990
KCXM: 82/2024
KSAV: 78/2024

July 7:
KCHS: 80/2017
KCXM: 82/2022
KSAV: 80/1883

July 8:
KCXM: 83/2016
KSAV: 80/1990

July 9:
KCHS: 80/1998
KSAV: 80/1883

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Dennis/DPB/JRL