North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

760
FXUS62 KCHS 302337
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
737 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Aviation section has been updated for the 00z TAF issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A front will sag southward this afternoon, with isolated to
  scattered showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon.

- 2) Much needed rain will fall across the South Carolina
  Lowcountry and Southeast Georgia Friday into Saturday.

- 3) Coastal Flood Advisory issued for Charleston and coastal
  Colleton county for tonight`s high tide cycle. Minor coastal
  flooding remains possible with the evening high tide cycle
  again Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A front will sag southward this afternoon, with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible this
afternoon.

As of 2 PM this afternoon a surface front could be analyzed
extending from Hilton Head, SC westward roughly along I-16. While
guidance is a little mixed on additional shower development this
afternoon, the 12Z HREF and the last several runs of the HRRR have
all been supportive of some isolated shower development east of I-
95. The best chance for precipitation will likely be in southeast
Georgia where the front hasn`t reached yet and some sunshine is
allowing the atmosphere to remain unstable. PoPs this afternoon
remain in the 40 to 50% range across this area. While a grumble of
thunder is possible the overall risk for severe thunderstorms is
very low.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Much needed rain will fall across the South Carolina
Lowcountry and Southeast Georgia Friday into Saturday.

Friday: Rain chances will begin to increase Friday as weak
isentropic ascent develops atop of the stalled front over Florida.
There are indications that a more consolidate area of mostly light
rain could develop by mid-morning mainly between the I-16 an I-26
corridors before shifting offshore. Guidance is essentially split on
this possibility with some members showing a much wetter trend while
others are remaining a bit drier. An in-the-middle approach was
taken to construct pops, nudging them up to 50-70% in this area;
however, confidence on how this will play out is only moderate at
best. Better rain chances will likely hold off until Friday night
(especially late) as the 850 hPa warm front lifts north through the
area and a stronger low-level jet induces even stronger isentropic
ascent. There will also be increasing contributions from deep-
layered quasi-geostrophic forcing ahead of an approaching mid-level
disturbance which will only further aid in widespread rain
development as daybreak Saturday approaches. Overnight pops were
increased to 60-90%, highest across the interior and across parts of
the lower South Carolina coast.

Saturday: Confidence is high that beneficial rains will fall across
the drought-stricken Lowcountry and Southeast Georgia Saturday as
cyclogenesis consolidates just offshore. As forcing for ascent
increases ahead of a potent southern stream disturbance, widespread
rains will steadily fill in and impact the entire area Saturday.
Rain will gradually end from west-east late Saturday afternoon into
the evening hours as the developing surface low moves away, passing
just south of Cape Hatteras and eventually out into the open
Atlantic Saturday night.

There continues to be consistent signals that a corridor of heavier
rainfall could set up across the interior within a region of
enhanced lift induced by a dual-jet structure between the polar jet
to the north and a weaker subtropical jet segment to the south.
Current model guidance consensus focuses this potential over the
southern Midlands and CSRA into far interior Southeast South
Carolina and Southeast Georgia; however, the exact placement of the
axis of heavier rain is still bit uncertain. The 30/13z NBM guidance
shows a 70-85% chance of rainfall totals >1", 40-65% chance for
>1.5", and a 20-40% chance for >2" for the entire area. The risk for
flash flooding is very low given that soils are parched with extreme
to exceptional drought conditions in place and rain rates should be
low enough to minimize the risk of rapid downpours. There could
still be some issues in low-lying and poor drainage areas across the
Charleston and Savannah Metro areas if pockets of intense rainfall
with enhanced rainfall rates where clusters of elevated tstms occur.

Surface-based instability is virtually nonexistent with the region
likely remaining well embedded in the cold sector, but a few
elevated tstms are certainly possible given the degree of forcing
noted aloft.


KEY MESSAGE 3: Coastal Flood Advisory issued for Charleston and
coastal Colleton county for tonight`s high tide cycle. Minor coastal
flooding remains possible with the evening high tide cycle again
Friday and Saturday.

Astronomical tide levels will continue to climb as we approach the
full moon on Friday (5/1). A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued
for Charleston and coastal Colleton counties for tonight, with tide
levels expected between 7.1-7.3 ft MLLW, resulting in minor coastal
flooding impacts. Winds may become more supportive of increasing
tidal departures later today and continuing into Saturday. While
this isn`t expected to lead to any coastal flooding along the
southeast Georgia coast, the tide level at Charleston is expected to
peak around 7-7.2 ft MLLW each evening. Additional Coastal Flood
Advisories could be needed for the Charleston and coastal Colleton
coast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z TAFs: Lingering showers continue to diminish across the region,
allowing quiet conditions and light winds to prevail for much of the
overnight period. Could see some isolated showers redevelop prior to
daybreak, though confidence remains too low to include more than
VCSH at this time. With rain chances increasing throughout the
morning, have opted to include -SHRA near/after daybreak for all
terminals along with winds out of the northeast. Otherwise, expect
rain to become more widespread by the end of the period in
addition to reduced cigs/vsbys.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions and low ceilings are
likely from showers and tstms Friday into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
There is a risk for winds to reach marginal Small Craft Advisory
levels Saturday as low pressure develops offshore and pulls away
from the region. Gusts to 25 kt may linger over parts of the
offshore waters through Saturday night into early Sunday morning.
Seas look to peak 2-4 ft nearshore waters 4-6 ft offshore waters
late Saturday afternoon into the early evening hours.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for SCZ149-
     150.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$