North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

516
FXUS62 KCHS 082353
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
753 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Aviation Section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Unsettled weather returns tonight and lingers through early
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Unsettled weather returns tonight and lingers through
early next week.

Dry surface high pressure will continue to traverse the region from
west to east before moving offshore this evening, with a stationary
front draped across northern Florida. While some weak echo`s are
observed on radar across across our far south near Darien, GA, a dry
layer between 850-700mb is preventing those raindrops from reaching
the surface. Low-level moisture off the gulf surges precipitable
water values towards 1.5-1.75 inches across the southeast region
tonight, and combined with shortwaves in the mid-levels and low-
level isentropic lift, chances for a couple rounds of more focused
rainfall return. The first round arrives late tonight and departs
Saturday morning, with the next arriving early afternoon Saturday
(~1-2 PM) pushing offshore in the evening hours.

The afternoon round will need to be monitored for strong to severe
thunderstorms, but will be largely dependent on how quickly the
earlier activity dissipates which will influence how much
instability will be able to build. Deterministic and ensemble
guidance suggest 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE builds across southeast
Georgia, with lesser amounts moving northwards into southeast South
Carolina. 0-6 km bulk shear is fairly uniform across the region
between 40 to 50 knots, though the highest low-level lapse rates of
6-7.5 deg C/km are expected across portions of southeastern Georgia.
This matches well with SPC`s Day 2 convective outlook, showing a
marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for portions of southeast Georgia,
which also agrees well with the various AI/ML output. Given the long
and skinny sounding profiles large hail is not expected, but with
the aforementioned low-level lapse rates and inverted v sounding
signatures, strong winds appear to be the greatest risk.

We may see a brief break in rain coverage between rounds of
shortwaves aloft, though precipitation coverage rises again Sunday
morning into Monday as stronger shortwaves move in aloft. This will
bring widespread precip activity, further enforced by an approaching
cold front and additional shortwaves that move in Monday before
exiting on Tuesday. Total precipitation Friday night through Monday
is continues to range from 0.75 to 1.75 inches, though a few
locations could exceed these amounts should showers and/or
thunderstorms become focused near the boundary/nearly stationary
front for longer durations late weekend. However, given the
prolonged event to reach these rainfall totals, precip rates are not
currently expected to result in a significant flooding threat.

Surface high pressure builds in behind the cold front, bringing back
dry conditions for a few days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z TAFs: Latest radar imagery shows ongoing shower activity just to
our west, which should continue to push eastward into our area over
the coming hours. Given the lack of confidence in exact timing and
location, have opted to continue with a PROB30 at all terminals for
this issuance. In terms of flight levels, should see VFR conditions
largely prevail overnight, with cigs gradually approaching MVFR
levels after daybreak. As noted in the previous discussion,
expect a lull in precipitation to occur during the late
morning, with another round of showers and storms possible
tomorrow afternoon - a few of which could become strong to
severe, especially across southeast Georgia. Otherwise, look for
light and variable winds overnight to turn south/southwesterly
by daybreak.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Occasional flight restrictions Saturday
through Monday as a stalled front brings showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Today - Tuesday: Winds remain on the weaker side with calm seas
through the weekend, accompanied by periods of isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms.  Ahead of an approaching cold front on
Monday, the pressure gradient along the coast does get pinched into
Tuesday, leading to some marginally breezy south-southeasterly
winds. Strongest winds are expected behind the cold front as a
surface high pressure moves in overnight into Tuesday morning,
likely necessitating a Small Craft Advisory for waters outside
of the Charleston Harbor.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$