North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

032
FXUS62 KCHS 190714
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
314 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Hot and humid conditions are expected across the area this
  weekend and through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Hot and humid conditions are expected across the
area this weekend and through early next week.

Very little change in the forecast is expect the next couple of
days as the heat and humidity lingers through Wednesday. The
overall players remain the same across the area with deep upper
troughing across the Northeast, high pressure to our east over
the Atlantic and a pesky tropical disturbance over the northern
Gulf. Temperatures yesterday did not go entirely as plan and as
dewpoints were able to mix and temperatures did not quite
increase as high as we were expecting. This was likely due to a
tightening gradient across the area leading to increased winds
allowing for better mixing. As a result most areas fell short of
advisory criteria. Looking ahead to Sunday and Monday, similar
conditions are expected given the slowly organizing system over
the Gulf and the upper trough slowly drifting eastward. This
will likely result in highs topping out more in the low to
maybe mid 90s and dewpoints able to mix out into the low 70s.
This should be enough to keep heat indices in the 100 to 105
range and while this is still hot, this is more in line with
normal summertime for the area. The bigger questions come on
Wednesday as dewpoints should gradually increase as better
moisture arrives. This will be aided by our disturbance in the
Gulf as it slowly tracks westward. The usual trouble areas
behind the seabreeze could start to approach advisory criteria
come Tuesday into Wednesday as dewpoints climb into the upper
70s to near 80 resulting in heat indices of around 108 to 110.

There is some good news in that by the end of the week the upper
trough will finally be able to move into the area leading to
increased rain chances and at least a brief end to the heat.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z TAFs: A brief MVFR ceiling near 2.5 kft will be possible at
KJZI through 08Z, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV through the period. Light southwesterly flow
overnight should strengthen this afternoon as the seabreeze
shifts inland between 16-18Z for KCHS/KJZI and ~20Z for KSAV. As
the seabreeze shifts more inland, the winds should veer out
more out of the south with gusts up to 21-23 kts noted. Gusts
should subside after 00Z, although sustained south-southwest
winds around 10 kts will continue through the end of the period.
No mention of showers and thunderstorms as coverage remains
rather limited.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Predominately VFR conditions through the
period, however there is a low chance of brief flight restrictions
each afternoon from showers and thunderstorms developing along the
seabreeze.&&

.MARINE...
Today: As the local waters remain situated between an inland trough
and a subtropical high to the east, this will yield breezy
southwesterly flow through late tonight. Expect wind speeds to range
from 15 to 20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts (esp. across the nearshore
Charleston waters). Thus, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in
effect for the nearshore Charleston waters through Monday 06Z (2AM).
As south-southwesterly swell slowly tapers back, expect seas to
range from 3 to 4 ft throughout the day.

Monday through Thursday: This aforementioned inland trough will
slowly shift offshore through the mid-week, allowing for another
possible round of SCAs (esp. in the South Carolina nearshore
waters). The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor a
system in the northeastern Gulf for possible tropical development,
with a 60% chance of development in the next 7 days. If this system
were to develop and track up the SE coastline there would be
additional wind and wave concerns across the marine waters.

Rip Currents: There is Moderate Risk of rip currents for all
beaches, given the 3 to 4 ft swell with wave periods up to 6
seconds. In addition, south-southwesterly winds will likely generate
a moderate longshore current, possibly supporting rip currents near
piers and jetties.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 18:
KCHS: 79/2007
KCXM: 81/2007

July 19:
KCHS: 79/1986
KCXM: 83/1986

July 20:
KCHS: 79/2025
KCXM: 83/2000
KSAV: 79/1942

July 21:
KCHS: 80/1986
KCXM: 83/1998

July 22:
KCHS: 81/2011
KCXM: 83/2011

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ360.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ362.

&&

$$

Black/Dennis