North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

806
FXUS62 KCHS 172259
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
659 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Aviation section was updated to reflect the 00Z TAF
issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Below normal temperatures and gusty winds expected this
  weekend as a powerful nor`easter develops off the North
  Carolina Outer Banks and high pressure prevails inland.

- 2) High surf and dangerous rip currents possible into early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Below normal temperatures and gusty winds
expected this weekend as a powerful nor`easter develops off the
North Carolina Outer Banks and high pressure prevails inland.

Through Tonight: Throughout the evening hours, cold air
advection will be increasing as cold air pours in, which will help
to keep breezy conditions going into the overnight hours.
Expect crisp overnight lows to dip down into the mid to upper
40s across the area, perhaps lower 50s for those along the
immediate coastline. Combined with the breezy winds, wind chills
in the upper 30s to lower 40s are possible away from the
immediate coast before the sun rises, so be sure dress
appropriately if you`re heading out early Sunday morning.

Sunday: Behind the exiting trough axis, upper level ridging will
lead to a strengthening surface high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic
states, with the southern extent making its way into the Southeast.
As the aforementioned trough axis moved off into the Atlantic, a
strong Nor`easter is expected to develop, resulting in the enhanced
surface pressure gradient continuing across the region. Thus, north-
northeasterly winds will be gusty in the 20-25 mph range across the
region, closer to 30 mph along the coastline. With h925 temperatures
peaking in the 8-10 deg C range, temperatures will remain well below
normal in the mid to upper 60s across the region. On the plus side,
much drier air moves in overhead, so ample sunshine will be present
amidst the cooler and gusty conditions.

Next week: The region remains under the influence of the surface
high pressure to our north, with the nor`easter slowly moving to the
northeast away from the area through mid-week. This will result in
warming temperatures through Tuesday, though some weak gusty winds
will persist. Afternoon highs on Monday in the mid 60s to lower 70s,
warming into the lower to mid 70s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Dry
conditions are expected to

Lake Winds: Winds on Lake Moultrie have been sustained 20-25 kt with
gusts to 30 kt today, with these hazardous conditions expected to
persist into the overnight into Sunday. Waves of 2-3 ft are possible
with isolated higher sets possible. Some minor lakeshore erosion and
overwash induced by significant wave action could along occur along
the south end of the lake, including Pinopolis, Lions Beach and
Short Stay. Winds will diminish at for Sunday, but will remain
elevated with gusts to 25 kt. A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect
through early Monday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2: High surf and dangerous rip currents possible
into early next week.

High Surf: Prolonged gale force winds with a continuous north-
northeast fetch in place will generate large breaking waves along
the SC/GA beaches Sunday into Monday. The largest breakers are
expected along GA beaches due to a more favorable onshore flow.
Although latest guidance has come in slightly weaker in regards to
wind speeds, the prolonged/favorable fetch continues to support +5
ft breakers along GA beaches on Sunday. A High Surf Advisory has
been issued for this area from midnight tonight through noon Monday
as a result. Additionally, minor beach erosion is possible along the
coast, perhaps with some local enhancement during high tide cycles
Sunday and Monday.

Rip Currents: Strong/gusty winds, building waves, and long period
swell associated with a favorable north-northeast fetch along the
Southeast Coast will support a High Risk for rip currents
Sunday. An enhanced period of rip currents is likely to continue
through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18/00Z TAF Discussion: Gusty north-northeast winds will
continue through Sunday at the terminals. Some weakening will
occur at times overnight, but frequent gusts around 25 kt will
return Sunday morning. Low-level clouds have dissipated and
skies will continue to clear with VFR conditions prevailing
through 00Z Monday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: After breezy conditions dissipate Sunday
into Monday, no high confidence extended aviation concerns.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight: Dangerous marine conditions will persist across
local waters through the night as strong cold air advection
occurs with building high pressure in the wake of a cold front
advancing further offshore. Strong/gusty north-northeast winds
between 25-30 kt will gust upwards to 35-40 kt across all
waters outside the Charleston Harbor. However, a few gusts to
gale force are possible across the Charleston Harbor this
evening/tonight as peak wind gusts for the event arrive when
cold air advection is strongest and taps into 40-50 kt 1000mb
lvl geostrophic winds. Seas will also build, increasing to 6-9
ft across nearshore waters and 9-12 ft offshore overnight. Seas
could even build up to 2-4 ft across the Charleston Harbor
tonight. Given ongoing conditions and expected trends, Gale
Warnings will remain in effect for all nearshore and offshore
SC/GA waters through the night while a Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect for the Charleston Harbor.

Sunday through Wednesday: Dangerous marine conditions will be
ongoing to start off next week with Gale Warnings in effect into
Monday for nearshore and offshore SC/GA waters while a Small Craft
Advisory remains in the Charleston Harbor. Latest guidance has come
in a bit weaker in regards to the strength and duration of gusty
north/northeast winds early next week, which could result in a
shortening of these hazards early Monday. However, low pressure
forming well of the coast of the Outer Banks of NC early week should
help maintain a period of Small Craft Advisory level conditions
across local waters into Tuesday, while lingering 6-7 ft seas across
GA waters could result in longer duration Small Craft Advisories
through mid week.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...High Surf Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EDT Monday
     for GAZ217-219-239-241.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from Sunday morning through Sunday
     evening for GAZ217-219-239-241.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents from Sunday morning through Sunday
     evening for SCZ148>151.
     Lake Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for SCZ045.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ340.
     Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ360-362-364.
     Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ380-382-384.

&&

$$