North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

408
FXUS62 KCHS 151142
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
742 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Periodic showers and thunderstorms expected to continue
  this week with a persistent summertime pattern.

- 2) Minor coastal flooding looking less likely along Charleston
  and Colleton County coast during upcoming evening high tides.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers and thunderstorms expected to continue
into early next week with a persistent summertime pattern.

As broad upper level troughing continues aloft, a weak surface cold
front will be approaching the region from the northwest throughout
the day. The current weak upper level wave producing the broken line
of showers as of 6Z is expected to continue to weaken and dissipate
by sunrise, with overnight lows remaining in the mid to upper 70s.
This wave looks to shift majority of the elevated instability and
mid-level moisture south of the SC/GA state-line, possibly as far
south as southern Georgia. At the surface, the aforementioned cold
front continues to move towards and eventually into the region this
evening, before stalling near a line from Reidsville, GA to Moncks
Corner, SC.

A group of scattered shortwaves moving through the base
of the trough will likely produce another round of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, primarily for areas
along/south of the I-16 corridor where there is up to 2000 J/kg of
SBCAPE to work with. The lack of shear will continue to produce
primarily pulse shower/storm activity, though cold-pool driven
thunderstorms may produce isolated strong winds given 1000 J/kg of
DCAPE. While PWATS remain near 2.0 inches, storms looks to remain
progressive enough to limit locally heavy rainfall potential, unless
repeated storms were to occur. As a result, HREF probabilities for
an inch of rain are only 30% along the SC/GA border, rising towards
70% along the GA/FL border.

Heading into the overnight period, additional shortwaves build
further to the north expanding coverage of showers and storms into
southeast South Carolina, further amplified by a weak surface low
pressure that attempts to form along the stalled cold front into
Tuesday morning. While we`ll likely see breaks from the rain at
times, continued shortwaves rounding the base of the trough will
lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Given the
cloud and rainfall coverage, Tuesday is looking to be much cooler.
Areas of interior GA may only get up into the lower 80s, rising
towards the upper 80s along the SC and GA coastline. The
aforementioned surface low pressure, or at the very least surface
trough, will lead to an elevated surface pressure gradient,
resulting in breezy southwesterly winds throughout the day.

While we`ll likely see a break from the rain late Wednesday into
Thursday as drier air sneaks into the mid-level flow, moisture is
quick to return resulting in the pattern looking to remain active
into the end of the week. Broad troughing will continue aloft, with
another cold front moving towards the area by late week/early
weekend. The pattern isn`t overly supportive of severe weather or
locally heavy rainfall until the cold front arrives, though the
additional rainfall will continue to provide much needed relief from
the ongoing drought conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Minor coastal flooding possible along the
Charleston and Colleton County coasts during the evening high
tide Monday.

The recent lunar Perigee (June 14th) and upcoming New Moon (June
15th) will continue to lead to elevated astronomical tides, though
the west-southwest surface winds are not overly conducive for high
tidal departures, as has been the case the past couple evenings.
Latest TWL forecast calls for 6.8-7.0 ft MLLW Monday evening from a
6.66 ft MLLW astro tide, so it is looking unlikely that a Coastal
Flood Advisory will be needed for the Charleston and Colleton county
coastline, though that will be closely monitored. Another chance for
coastal flooding Tuesday evening with an astro tide of 6.55 ft MLLW,
though again southwesterly surface flow should keep us from reaching
advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z TAFs: A narrow strip of MVFR cigs developed and is quickly
moving eastwards, possibly impacting the KCHS and KJZI terminals
until 13Z this morning, with a TEMPO group to represent that.
After that, VFR conditions expected for the remainder of the
period with southwesterly winds of 5-10 knots, with a few gusts
into the upper teens along the coast. Afternoon scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, primarily
for southeast Georgia, though guidance continues to push this
activity further south, close/south of the Darien, GA area.
Light scattered showers develop and expand north overnight into
Tuesday morning, with MVFR cigs likely building in from
southeast Georgia expanding northeastward throughout the day.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions should prevail at
CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through the weekend, although TEMPO flight
restrictions are possible with afternoon showers/thunderstorms
throughout the week. Chances for flight restrictions remain moderate
into the middle of the week with shower/thunderstorm coverage
expanding locally ahead of an arriving cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
A moderate SW gradient will persist over the waters this week as
Atlantic high pressure remains in place and a surface trough
sits inland. We could see wind gusts approach 25 kt over the SC
nearshore waters Wed and Thu afternoons. Small Craft Advisories
may be needed Friday as the gradient tightens a bit with the
approach of a cold front.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

June 15
KCHS: 98/2015

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 15
KCHS: 80/2010

June 16:
KCHS: 78/1998

June 18
KCHS: 78/2015

June 19
KCHS: 79/2025
KCXM: 81/2025
KSAV: 79/1881

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

APT/JRL