North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

278
FXUS62 KCHS 022257
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
657 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Aviation section was updated for the 00z TAFs. The Marine
section was updated to remove mention of the moderate risk for
rip currents along the Georgia beaches.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Above normal temperatures will persist through the holiday
  weekend into next week. Heat Advisories could be needed this
  weekend into early next week as humidity surges back into the
  region.

- 2) Typical summertime convection returns on Sunday, with
  chances increasing further into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Above normal temperatures will persist through
the holiday weekend into next week. Heat Advisories could be
needed this weekend into early next week as humidity surges back
into the region.

As abnormally strong ridging persists aloft, expect above
normal temperatures to continue into early next week. Afternoon
temperatures will range from mid to upper 90s (with some spots
climbing to 100F) with mostly clear skies through this period.
The hottest temperatures will be this holiday weekend as this
aforementioned ridge shifts over the Eastern Seaboard. Along
with this, forecast soundings suggest that the drier air aloft
will mix down yielding afternoon dewpoints in the mid to low 60s
today (7/02) and tomorrow (7/03). Thus, this will keep the heat
indices below heat advisory criteria for today and tomorrow.
However, the potential for Heat Advisories being needed will
increase thereafter (esp. along the coastline) with heat indices
ranging from 105F to 110F on Sunday onward as moisture surges
back into the region. Also, record high temperatures and record
high minimums could be challenged through the period (see
Climate section below).

KEY MESSAGE 2: Typical summertime convection returns on Sunday,
with chances increasing further into next week.

Strong ridging aloft will persist over the eastern CONUS on
Friday morning, before slowly breaking down over the weekend and
into early next week. While this ridge breaks down, weak
troughing should develop across the Eastern Seaboard as a
shortwave skirts the U.S./Canada border. This pattern will yield
more moisture into the region with PWATs ~2 inches on Sunday
supporting a more unstable environment. Thus, the typical
summertime afternoon convection should return on Sunday.
Thereafter, the chances for precipitation will increase on
Monday into mid-to-late week. The afternoon shower and
thunderstorm activity each day will depend on how much
instability builds through out the day and the timing of the
seabreeze. It`s likely that these will mostly be cold-pool
driven thunderstorms, rather than organized convection, as shear
values remain rather limited. Despite this, strong to
marginally severe thunderstorms is possible beginning on Sunday
and through the mid-to-late week. The main threats within these
showers and thunderstorms will likely be damaging wind gusts and
locally heavy rainfall. As the sun sets in the evenings,
convection will likely dissipate afterwards.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
03/00z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 04/00z. Guidance has backed off on
the potential for fog overnight with minimum dewpoint
depressions expected to hold 1-3 degs through daybreak. While
some shallow ground fog could occur, no meaningful impacts are
anticipated.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Afternoon showers and thunderstorms
may bring brief flight restrictions late this weekend into early
next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Moderate northeasterly flow will turn more east-
southeasterly late this afternoon into the evening, before
becoming light and more southeasterly overnight. East-
southeasterly swell will continue to slowly fade out of Atlantic
waters yielding seas to gradually ease back to 2-3 ft
overnight.

Friday through Monday: As an upper-lvl ridging slowly breaks
down over the weekend, weak troughing will develop across the
waters on Sunday. Light northeasterly winds will take shape on
Friday morning, before turning east-southeasterly in the late
afternoon. Thereafter, on Saturday (the 4th), winds will be out
of the southwest in the early morning, before switching out of
the south-southeasterly in the early afternoon. This pattern
will yield a typical summertime pattern for the waters as the
highest winds will be located along the land/sea interface as
the afternoon seabreeze forms and then pushes inland. It`s
possible to see gusts ~20 kt along the beaches + across the
Charleston Harbor as this afternoon seabreeze pushes inland
(esp. Saturday through Monday). Expect the winds to slightly
veer each night through this period. Seas will range from 2-3 ft
through Sunday, before increasing to 3-4 ft on Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

July 3:
KCHS: 98/2019

July 4:
KCHS: 98/2023
KCXM: 98/1902
KSAV: 99/1997

July 5:
KCHS: 100/1993
KSAV: 100/1902

July 6:
KCHS: 100/1990

July 7:
KCHS: 99/1954
KSAV: 101/1977

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 5:
KCHS: 78/2017
KCXM: 82/2016
KSAV: 78/2016

July 6:
KCHS: 79/1990
KCXM: 82/2024
KSAV: 78/2024

July 7:
KCHS: 80/2017
KCXM: 82/2022
KSAV: 80/1883

July 8:
KCXM: 83/2016
KSAV: 80/1990

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Dennis