North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

531
FXUS62 KCHS 080629
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
229 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across
  portions of southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina.
  The best rain chances will be along the coast today, and
  likely linger through the remainder of the week.

- 2) Coastal flooding will impact much of the southeast Georgia
  and southeast South Carolina coast this week. Tide levels
  will likely peak today and Wednesday.

- 3) There is a High Risk of rip currents along the entire
  coastline today and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
across portions of southeast Georgia and southeast South
Carolina. The best rain chances will be along the coast today,
and likely linger through the remainder of the week.

The overall setup will remain the same today with high pressure
centered across the Mid Atlantic and a surface trough/weak low
pressure down along the FL coast. This will pinch the pressure
gradient along the southeast coast, driving strong northeast to
east-northeast flow. This will keep the feed of showers and
thunderstorms across the adjacent coastal waters headed toward
the coast, especially from around Beaufort County south. Model
guidance is actually in good agreement with the bulk of the
activity from late morning into the early afternoon feeding into
the coast from around Fripp Island, to Hilton Head Island, and
the Tybee Island area. The 08/00z HREF even has a large area of
30-50% probability for 1 inch or more of rainfall in a 3 hour
period. These showers and storms should have enough movement to
keep the flood threat low, but some pockets of 1-2 inches of
rain are possible. As we move into the mid to late afternoon
hours, the bulk of the shower and thunderstorm activity should
shift inland.

By Wednesday, the surface setup will change a bit with the
center of the surface high shifting off the coast and supporting
more of a due easterly or even east-southeasterly flow. This
should allow deeper moisture to spread a bit further north. The
feed of convergence and resulting showers and thunderstorms will
likely start to shift further north into the southeast SC coast
as well.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Coastal flooding will impact much of the
southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina coast this week.
Tide levels will likely peak today and Wednesday.

Astronomical tide levels will peak during the evening high tide
cycle today through Thursday due to the recent lunar perigee
(9/6) and the upcoming new moon (9/11). These factors along with
the ongoing strong northeast flow event, will combined to
produce elevated tide levels and coastal flooding for much of
the coast.

Charleston Harbor: Astronomical tides will be right around 6.5
ft MLLW each evening through Thursday. The ongoing northeast
flow event has already pushed tidal departures well in excess of
1 ft, and the northeast flow will peak through the day today.
For the upcoming evening high tide (~7 pm), there is increasing
confidence in moderate coastal flooding (7.5 ft MLLW or higher).
Current model guidance suggests that the evening high tide will
peak around 7.6-7.8 ft MLLW with even some support for
approaching as high as 7.9 ft MLLW. A Coastal Flood Advisory is
in effect for Charleston and coastal Colleton counties. For the
Wednesday evening high tide, winds will remain out of a
conducive direction (ENE) though wind speeds will come down a
bit. This should still be enough to maintain large tidal
departures and moderate coastal flooding is possible, if not
likely. For Thursday, winds will turn more southerly and weaken
considerably. Minor coastal flooding remains quite certain,
though the potential for moderate coastal flooding will
diminish. Then for Friday and into the weekend, we will see the
morning high tide cycle become the higher tide of the day with
astronomical values around 6.3 ft. Winds will be more south to
southwesterly which will bring departures down and make the
occurrence of minor flooding less certain.

Fort Pulaski: The best chance to reach the minor coastal flood
threshold (9.5 ft MLLW) will likely come with the upcoming
evening high tide (~7 pm). Current departures and model guidance
suggest that the tide will peak around 9.6-9.8 ft MLLW and a
Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for Beaufort County south
including the entire southeast GA coast. Wednesday also looks
like a good candidate for minor coastal flooding as winds remain
supportive of large tidal departures. Another advisory could be
needed. Thereafter, the coastal flooding potential will
diminish as winds diminish and become less favorable.

KEY MESSAGE 3: There is a High Risk of rip currents along the
entire coastline today and Wednesday.

Breezy northeasterly flow combined with an easterly swell will
support a High Risk of rip currents across all the southeast
South Carolina and southeast Georgia beaches today and tomorrow
(9/9). Thus, an enhanced risk of rip currents will likely last
through the end of the week. If you are caught in a rip current,
stay calm, do not fight the current, and swim parallel to the
shoreline to escape it.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The 06z TAF period begins with VFR conditions at KCHS, KJZI,
and KSAV. The two main concerns for this TAF period will be
another round of gusty northeast to east-northeast winds and the
potential for showers and thunderstorms. Winds will start to
pick up and gust by mid morning and then peak in the afternoon.
Frequent gusts into the 20-25 knot range are expected. Showers
and thunderstorms will be a concern first at KCHS and KJZI
starting around mid morning and then going through the early
afternoon. Since KJZI is closer to the coast and bit further
south, the best chances for direct impacts will be there. For
now we have included just a VCSH at KCHS while KJZI has a PROB30
group from 14-18z with thunderstorm potential. Focus will then
turn to KSAV where the chance of showers and storms will come a
bit later. The PROB30 group there runs from 17-21z.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Scattered showers and thunderstorms
could impact the terminals each day through the end of the week,
mainly in the afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Daybreak: Breezy northeasterly flow will continue to
dominate across the marine waters throughout tonight with gusts
up to 25-28 kts possible. Recent observations have been running
slightly higher than the guidance, therefore have increased the
wind gusts by 1-2 kts in the forecast. A Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) continues for all nearshore waters and the offshore
Georgia waters. The SCA for the Charleston Habor has expired,
but winds will likely remain elevated (around 15-20 kts) through
daybreak. As easterly swell continues, seas will range from 4
to 6 ft in the nearshore waters (0-20 nm) and 5 to 7 ft in the
offshore waters (20-60 nm).

Today: Expect breezy northeasterly flow to continue across the
marine waters through the rest of today. It`s possible to see
wind gusts as high as 25-30 kts across the waters (including the
Charleston Harbor). As easterly swell continues to taper into
the waters, seas will build to 4 to 7 ft in the nearshore waters
(including the Charleston Harbor) and 5 to 7 ft in the offshore
waters. Thus, a SCA has been issued for all the nearshore
waters and the offshore Georgia waters. The gradient (along with
the easterly swell) will likely weaken as we head into the
overnight, thus all the SCAs are expected to expire by early
Wednesday morning.

Wednesday through Saturday: Moderate easterly flow will be on
tap for Wednesday, before turning south-southeasterly on
Wednesday night through the rest of the period. Easterly swell
will slowly subside throughout Wednesday, and becoming 2-3 ft on
Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for GAZ217-219-239-241.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for SCZ148>151.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for AMZ340.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ360-362-
     364.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ384.

&&

$$

BSH/Dennis