North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

378
FXUS62 KCHS 150114
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
914 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated the Aviation section for the 00Z TAFs. The threat for
severe weather has ended across the area, and its key message
was removed. Tide levels along the Charleston/Colleton County
coasts have fallen short of reaching minor coastal flood stage,
and the Coastal Flood Advisory was cancelled.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Showers and thunderstorms expected to continue into early
  next week with a persistent summertime pattern.

- 2) Minor coastal flooding possible along the Charleston and
  Colleton County coasts during the evening high tide Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers and thunderstorms expected to continue
into early next week with a persistent summertime pattern.

A classic early-summer pattern will remain established across
southeast South Carolina and southeast Georgia through early
next week. Atlantic high pressure will remain anchored offshore
while mid- lvl ridging across the western Atlantic periodically
interacts with embedded shortwave perturbations rotating around
the ridge periphery. Low-lvl flow remains generally south to
southwest, maintaining a rich maritime tropical airmass through
next week. This pattern will yield afternoon showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.

Similar to last couple of days, forecast soundings indicate
PWAT values ranging from 1.9 to 2.3 inches through the period
(near the 90th percentile for mid-June). This combined with
surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s should yield SBCAPE
values between 2500-3000 J/kg amid peak heating. Mid-lvl lapse
rates remain relatively modest with values ranging from 5.5-6.0
C/km, suggesting pulse-type convection will dominate through the
period. Expect the afternoon seabreeze to push inland each day
and collide with other outflow boundaries, yielding the primary
focus for convection initiation.

As we head into early to mid-week, broad mid-lvl troughing will
likely encompass the eastern half of the CONUS. At the surface, a
weak cold front will approach the region on Monday, and then push
offshore by Tuesday evening. Convection coverage will likely
increase from late morning near the coastline before expanding more
inland in the afternoons. Highest PoPs will likely occur along and
west of I-95 corridor where seabreeze interactions maximize.

This pattern should remain active into the end of the week as this
broad mid-lvl troughing continues aloft, with another cold front
moving towards the area by late week/early weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Minor coastal flooding possible along the
Charleston and Colleton County coasts during the evening high
tide Monday.

Breezy south-southwesterly winds along with the lunar Perigee
(June 14th) and New Moon (June 15th) could result in elevated
tidal departures Monday, setting the stage for possible minor
coastal flooding along the Charleston and Colleton County coasts
during the evening high tide. Coastal Flood Advisories could be
needed for the Charleston and Colleton county coastlines.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
15/00Z TAF Discussion: Overnight, conditions should remain VFR
with slightly elevated SW winds. A second round of
showers/thunderstorms could approach the terminals tonight after
midnight, but there is moderate confidence in thier decay
before reaching the terminals. No mention of impacts in the TAFs
for now.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions expected to prevail at
CHS/JZI/SAV terminals. However, brief flight restrictions are
possible with afternoon showers and/or thunderstorms through the
middle of this week.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight through Monday, the pressure pattern will support southwest
winds between 10 to 15 kts with gusts in the lower 20s. Wave heights
are forecast to remain between 2 to 4 ft. Winds should generally
continue tonight into Monday.

Tuesday through Friday: Expect generally south-southwesterly winds
with speeds ranging from 15 to 20 kts with gusts up to 22-24 kts as
Atlantic high pressure persists across the local waters. There could
be the need for Small Craft Advisories for Thursday evening into
Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas should remain below
6 feet throughout the period.

Rip Currents: A Moderate Risk of rip currents is forecast Monday
along the southeast South Carolina and southeast Georgia
beaches given the combination of elevated winds and a lingering
south-southwesterly swell.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

June 15
KCHS: 98/2015

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 14
KCHS: 79/2010
KCXM: 81/2010

June 15
KCHS: 80/2010

June 18
KCHS: 78/2015

June 19
KCHS: 79/2025
KCXM: 81/2025
KSAV: 79/1881

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

BRS