North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

282
FXUS62 KCHS 120046
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
846 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All Key Messages and sections were updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) The risk for showers and thunderstorms will continue into
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: The risk for showers and thunderstorms will
continue into next week.

Tonight: A broken line of convection continues to shift north
across parts of southern Southeast South Carolina, producing
gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall this evening, but will
likely encounter an environment that has been worked over
considerably by convection prior to nightfall. Although chances
for showers and thunderstorms should linger across Southeast
South Carolina during evening hours, activity will likely trend
weaker during the process and become less in coverage. The tail-
end of weak shortwave energy could spark a few additional showers
and thunderstorms into the early morning hours, especially east
of I-95 in Southeast South Carolina and over the nearby Atlantic
waters as low-level convergence builds near the beaches and
along the west wall of the Gulf Stream. Also, there are some
hints of patchy fog developing across inland areas a few hours
prior to daybreak given recent rains. However, cloud cover
should limit dense fog potential overnight.

This Weekend into Next Week: A shortwave trough aloft will
ripple across the southeastern states towards the Mid-Atlantic
Saturday into Sunday. At the surface a weak front will approach
the region Saturday, likely fizzling out prior to arriving
Sunday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are in
the forecast for Saturday and Sunday afternoons, with the
greatest coverage likely on Saturday. Widespread severe weather
is not forecast, however a strong to marginally severe
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. The greater threat will be
heavy rainfall, as PWATs are forecast to increase to 2+ inches.
Very weak storm motions could result in localized heavy
rainfall, leading to minor flooding issues within low-lying and
poor drainage areas. A more typical summertime pattern of
isolated to scattered afternoon showers/storms will take shape
Monday and dominate through the week as weak coastal troughing
develops along the southeastern coast.

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.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Brief MVFR conditions are possible at the SAV terminal until 01Z as
shower activity departs the area, and could become an issue at
JZI/CHS terminals late evening as showers/thunderstorms approach
from the south, but likely in a weakening state. Confidence remains
low in the arrival of this activity so it remains out of the latest
00Z TAF. VFR conditions should then prevail at all terminals
overnight and through morning hours Saturday. Chances for showers
and thunderstorms increase during afternoon hours Saturday at all
terminals. PROB30 groups for thunderstorms and MVFR conditions have
been introduced between 16-22Z at CHS, 16-20Z at JZI, and 18-24Z at
SAV on Saturday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Periodic flight restrictions will be
possible Saturday and Sunday afternoons as showers/storms could
impact the terminals. The risk for periodic flight restrictions
will linger into the week as a typical summertime pattern of
afternoon showers/storms dominates.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight: A southerly flow regime will persist overnight with
winds remaining at or below 10 kt outside shower/thunderstorm
activity. Seas will range between 2-3 ft. Convection shifting across
southern SC nearshore waters could possibly reach northern SC
nearshore waters along the Charleston County Coast. However, the
environment across northern SC nearshore waters has been worked over
by convection prior to nightfall so convection is anticipated to
weaken while making northern progress this evening. A few Marine
Weather Statements are possible before activity reaches northern
waters.

Saturday through Tuesday: Conditions are forecast to remain
below Small Craft Advisory levels through the weekend. Beginning
next week a weak coastal trough will develop off/along the
southeast coast, leading to a surge in NE wind gusts potentially
as high as 25 knots. Small Craft Advisories may be required for
portions of the waters beginning Tuesday.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$