North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

249
FXUS62 KCHS 091750
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1250 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across the region through Saturday. A
cold front will push offshore Sunday morning followed by
another area of high pressure. Another cold front could impact
the area by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The region remains in the southwest sector of a surface high
pressure that is shifting eastwards into the Atlantic, with a cold
front approaching from the west. Some drier air in the mid-levels
has helped to mix out the fog earlier this morning, which is
allowing for a rapid increase in temperatures away from the coast.
Inland highs are expected to reach up into the mid 70s to lower 80s,
warmest across portions of southeast Georgia, and is within reach of
the daily record highs. Areas along the coast will see southeasterly
to southerly winds advect cooler temperatures off the nearshore
waters, which will limit heating potential to the upper 60s to lower
70s.

As the cold front remains well off to our east, no rain is yet
expected keeping fog as the main concern heading into the overnight
period. Vast majority of guidance shows a bank of sea fog lingering
throughout the day just off the southeast Georgia coast which is
then advected onto land as temperatures cool. However, if that bank
of sea fog is fully eroded, with erosion currently being observed on
satellite early this afternoon, that raises uncertainty in the fog
forecast. Given relatively weak surface flow and abundant
moisture in the boundary layer, radiation fog may still form
across land areas. So, while the exact process for how we may
get fog is not clear, it is looking like fog will again
overspread portions of the area this evening and overnight,
especially for areas generally along and east of I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday: Fog, some dense, could linger over land into the mid to
late morning hours with at least a risk for patchy fog impacting the
beaches into the afternoon. The region will still be fully embedded
within the warm sector of an approaching cold front as a strong
storm system moves across the Great Lakes region. An isolated shower
or two from off the Atlantic could brush the coastal areas, but
guidance is not overly keen on this scenario, especially as low-
level wind fields veer with time. No mentionable pops were included
given the overall low chance for anything measurable. Rain chances
will increase Saturday evening as the rain band associated with the
front approaches from the west. The overall model trends have not
changed too much and still favor the better rain chances occurring
across the far interior as the decaying frontal rain band marches
east. Guidance has been fairly consistent in showing the corridor of
greatest forcing associated with both the right entrance region of
the polar jet and DPVA ahead of the Great Lakes upper trough passing
by well to the north and northwest, but a bit more forcing is noted
in 09/12z model cross sections. This may translate into the line
holding together a bit more as it exits the South Carolina Midlands,
CSRA and central Georgia even though the line will likely be in a
steady weakening phase as it moves into the Lowcountry and Southeast
Georgia. How much of the line will dissipate before reaching the
coast is still uncertain. The pop gradient was tightened a bit
based on the latest trends, ranging 40-70% well inland to 20-40%
coast, but higher pops may eventually be needed for some areas
once this period enters into the temporal window of some of the
higher resolution CAMs. Another day of near record warmth is
expected with highs ranging from the lower 80s west of I-95 to
the mid 60s at the beaches. See the climate section below for
specific records. Lows Saturday night will range from the lower
50s in the Allendale- Reidsville corridor to the mid-upper 50s
elsewhere.

Sunday and Monday: The cold front will clear the coast by mid-
morning with the risk for isolated to scattered showers lingering
until FROPA. Otherwise, dry and cooler conditions will prevail as a
modified Canadian airmass settles into the Southeast States even as
the upper flow aloft remains somewhat cyclonic. It could be a bit
breezy Sunday afternoon with the onset of modest cold air advection
and winds on Lake Moultrie could get close to Lake Wind Advisory
criteria (40% NBM probability for frequent gusts to 25 kt). Highs
Sunday will occur early in the day, peak in the upper 50s inland to
the mid 60s at the coast, with temperatures either leveling out or
even falling a bit in the afternoon as temperatures aloft cool. Lows
Sunday night will drop back closer to climatological normals,
ranging from the upper 20s well inland to the upper 30s at the
beaches. Monday will offer considerably cooler highs with
temperatures maxing out in the lower-mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Rain chances will begin to increase mid-late week as another cold
front pushes offshore and a deep upper trough initiates strong
cyclogenesis off the Eastern Seaboard. More seasonable temperatures
can be expected for much of the week with temperatures averaging
near to slightly below normal for mid-January.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected to prevail for the rest of the
afternoon hours, though another round of fog is expected this
evening and into the overnight hours. Fog looks to form along
the southeast Georgia coast, which then expands northeastwards
especially for areas generally along and east of the I-95
corridor. While dense fog is possible, confidence is not high
enough to include one quarter-mile visibility, so have capped
visibility at one half-mile for this set of TAFs. Fog will erode
Saturday morning.

Extended Aviation Outlook: A band of showers with a cold front
may bring reduced vsbys Saturday night into early Sunday
morning. Gusty northwest winds are possible Sunday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through tonight: A narrow corridor of fog remains trapped
in the marine layer along the southeast Georgia and southeast
South Carolina coast, while the nearshore waters from South
Santee to Edisto are clear. It`s unclear if this will linger or
not, but given an unchanged atmosphere the trend would support
this bank of fog to remain throughout the afternoon and into the
overnight hours. For now, have extended the Dense Fog Advisory
for the waters from Edisto, SC to Altamaha Sound, GA through 8
PM, though it will likely need to be further extended/expanded
this evening. As south-southeasterly flow strengthens this
evening, the fog is expected to expand in areal coverage across
all nearshore waters, though the increased wind speed may limit
the thickness of the fog...thus not extending the advisory into
the overnight period.

Saturday through Tuesday: There are two main concerns for the
period. Some degree of fog, possibly dense with vsby 1 NM or less,
could linger across the coastal waters Saturday as warm, moist
airmass holds in place over the cool Atlantic shelf waters. The risk
for reduced vsbys should end by Saturday night as a low-level wind
fields veer and increase ahead of an approaching cold front.

There is a risk for both winds and seas reaching Small Craft
Advisory criteria Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning as
cold air advection spread east across the waters in the wake of a
cold front. The probability for winds reaching frequent gusts to 25
kt is averaging about 40-60% across the nearshore waters and 70-90%
over the Georgia offshore waters.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:
January 9:
KCHS: 78/2012
KSAV: 77/2008

January 10:
KCHS: 79/2008
KSAV: 81/1972

Record High Minimum Temperatures:
January 10:
KCHS: 60/1974
KCXM: 62/1974
KSAV: 63/1937

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for AMZ352-354.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...