North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

598
FXUS62 KCHS 281132
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
632 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The aviation section was updated for the 12z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Unseasonably cold weather will occur through early next
  week.

- 2) Developing low pressure offshore could bring snow to parts
  of the region this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Unseasonably cold weather will occur through
early next week.

Arctic high pressure over the area will slowly moderate as it
shifts southeast through Friday. Temps and wind chill values are
forecast to remain above Cold Weather Advisory criteria during
this time.

A particularly strong, 1050 mb high will drop out of central
Canada Friday, then spread into the Southeast Friday night and
Saturday. This will usher in much colder air, along with 10-15
mph surface winds. Saturday highs are expected to be in the
upper 30s inland to lower 40s coastal. Temps will quickly
decrease late Saturday afternoon, with wind chills dropping
below 20 degrees by 6pm. Saturday night lows in the mid to upper
teens combined with 10-15 mph NW winds will produce 0-10 degree
wind chills much of the night, likely necessitating an Extreme
Cold Warning.

Sunday highs will be in the upper 30s in most areas. Sunday
night may require a Cold Weather Advisory as lows in the upper
teens to lower 20s and 5-10 mph wind could produce wind chills
of 10-20 degrees. Temperatures steadily warm up early next week.


KEY MESSAGE 2:...Developing low pressure offshore could bring
snow to parts of the region this weekend.

Models continue to be in rather good agreement regarding the
synoptic set up this weekend. A sharp trough is forecast to dig
southward out of the Great Lakes on Friday, dropping into the
southeastern states Saturday. Simultaneously a surface low is
forecast to develop off the southeastern coast before trekking to
the northeast. Precipitation along the backside of the low could
impact the region within the timeframe of Friday night through
Sunday morning. While there is high confidence in the synoptic
forecast, the finer details remain a very low confidence forecast.

There are two main possible scenarios A) the upper low digs further
south with surface cyclogenesis occurring further south (favorable
for greater precipitation chances) and B) the upper low remains
further northward with surface cyclogenesis occurring further to the
north (lesser precipitation chances). The 00Z ECMWF Ens and the GEFS
both support scenario A, however we would like to see more run-to-
run consistency of the ensembles and deterministic guidance before
latching onto either scenario. It is worth noting that the air mass
in place this weekend will be very cold (see Key Message 1).
Therefore, if there is any precipitation we would not be dealing
with many precipitation type issues, just a rain/snow forecast.

The forecast will continue to explicitly advertise rain/snow but it
continues to be too early to attempt to nail down the likelihood,
timing, extend, and magnitude of any snow accumulations.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the 12Z TAF period.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Predominantly VFR through the
extended period, with increasing potential for impacts Saturday
associated with developing low pressure offshore of the
Southeastern coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Confidence is increasing in a potentially significant coastal
system this weekend with the potential for Gales over most of
the marine area. N to NW winds will be increasing Friday night,
with the strongest winds potentially occurring Saturday through
Sunday before the developing coastal low moves northeast. We
could see sustained winds approaching 34 kt with frequent gusts
of 35-40 kt over all coastal waters, and 30 kt gusts in
Charleston Harbor during this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Low Temperatures:

January 31:
KCHS: 15/1966
KCXM: 19/1966
KSAV: 16/1966

February 1:
KCHS: 21/1977
KCXM: 23/1900
KSAV: 23/1977

February 2:
KCHS: 19/1980
KCXM: 17/1917
KSAV: 18/1917

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

January 31:
KCHS: 36/1948
KCXM: 34/1936
KSAV: 37/1909

February 1:
KCHS: 38/1980
KCXM: 36/1900
KSAV: 38/1900

February 2:
KCHS: 38/1980
KCXM: 38/1898
KSAV: 38/1951

Record Snowfall:

January 31:
KCHS: 0.6/1977
KSAV: 1.3/1977

February 1:
KCHS: no record established
KSAV: no record established

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KCLX radar remains out of service. There has been a delay in
the arrival of replacement parts due to extreme weather over
parts of the country. The currently anticipated return to
service is Thursday January 29th. Users should use adjacent
WSR-88D sites, including KCAE, KLTX, KJAX, KVAX and KJGX.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

CPM/JRL