North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

376
FXUS62 KCHS 051824
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
124 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Patchy fog will be possible across the area late tonight
  and early Friday.

- 2) Unseasonably warm temperatures expected through the late
  week, with scattered showers and a thunderstorm, or two
  possible on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Patchy fog will be possible across the area late
tonight and early Friday.

The forecast area will sit in the warm/moist sector ahead of an
approaching cold front tonight. Light southerly flow today will
continue through tonight and forecast lows are only in the mid
to upper 60s for much of the area. Such values would be 15+
degrees above normal for early November. These temperatures,
combined with similar dewpoints, will produce nearly saturated
conditions in the presence of light to calm surface flow. Model
guidance is mixed regarding coverage and intensity of fog. Most
guidance sources suggest visibilities mostly in the 3-5 mile
range, though there is some statistical guidance depicting some
potential for lower visibility. Probabilistic guidance from the
05/12z REFS is being partially discounted along the SC coast and
southeast SC because it appears to be initializing with sea fog
along the coast and then allowing it to advect inland within
the southerly flow. NBM probabilities are considerably lower and
seem more reasonable for most of the forecast area. Overall,
the current expectation is for patchy fog with visibilities
mostly in the 3-5 mile range mostly for locations along inland
of the I-95 corridor.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Unseasonably warm temperatures expected through
late week, with scattered showers and a thunderstorm, or two
possible on Friday.

A cold front extending across the Ohio River Valley continues
to track eastward towards the region. This will allow some
isolated showers to form out ahead of the front across portions
of the region as the front makes it`s way towards the coastline.
As the front inches closer tomorrow, expect a weakening broken
band of showers with a couple embedded thunderstorms to track
along with it through the region in the early morning/afternoon
hours. There is an extremely low severe potential with this
system as the environment remains unsupportive. Also,
significant rainfall does not seem to be in the cards as well.
Rainfall totals will range from 0.10 to 0.25 inches with 0.50
inches possible in some spots where the axis of higher
instability develops (which appears to be along the coastline).
The front should push offshore in the evening hours and drier,
cooler air will make a return with a rain-free forecast in place
through early next week.

On another note, temperatures will continue to be unseasonably
warm this afternoon and tomorrow before the cold front passes
through the region. Expect afternoon highs to reach into the low
to mid 80s. These values are around 10 degrees above early
November normals and are within a few degrees of records (see
climate section below).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The 18z TAF period begins with mostly VFR conditions at KCHS,
KJZI, and KSAV. For the afternoon, the best chance of impacts
from passing showers and perhaps even brief MVFR conditions will
be at KSAV. This shower activity will likely continue near KSAV
through the late afternoon hours. Then late tonight, there will
be fog and low stratus potential. Most of the guidance isn`t
particularly aggressive regarding fog and visibility and is
mixed on the low stratus potential. The environment will be warm
and moist which will certainly bring the possibility of at
least shallow ground fog. For now we have added in MVFR
conditions in at KCHS and KJZI and kept the forecast VFR at KSAV
where the best chances for flight restrictions should be inland
of the terminal. Attention then turns an approaching cold front
which should bring showers and a thunderstorm or two to the
area. However, it appears the best chances for shower and
thunderstorm potential will come beyond 18z Friday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: It`s possible to see some brief
flight restrictions as scattered showers and thunderstorms pass
through the region on Friday afternoon/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Through tonight: The local waters will sit ahead of an
approaching cold front. This setup will favor modest southerly
flow with wind speeds mostly topping out around 10 knots. Seas
will continue to average 2-4 feet, highest beyond 20 nm.

Friday through Tuesday: A weak cold front will push offshore
across the waters on Friday evening, however no significant
marine conditions are expected except for a wind shift to the
north- northeast on Saturday. Expect wind speeds to range
generally from 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts possible
through the forecast period. Seas will range from 2 to 4ft.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

November 5:
KCHS: 87/2003
KCXM: 81/1992
KSAV: 85/2003

November 6:
KCXM: 81/2003

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

BSH/Dennis