North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

706
FXUS62 KCHS 291129
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
629 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The aviation section was updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Confidence continues to increase in an accumulating snowfall
  event across a portion of the SC Lowcountry and SE Georgia
  Saturday morning through Saturday night.

- 2) Unseasonably cold weather will continue through early next
  week with the coldest conditions expected Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Confidence continues to increase in an accumulating
snowfall event across a portion of the SC Lowcountry and SE
Georgia Saturday morning through Saturday night.

A sharp trough is forecast to dig southward out of the Great Lakes
on Friday, dropping into the southeastern states Saturday.
Simultaneously a surface low is forecast to develop off the
southeastern coast before trekking to the northeast. Precipitation
along the backside of the low is forecast to impact the region
Saturday into early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings indicate dry
conditions will dominate prior to daybreak Saturday and into the
first few hours of Saturday morning. Conditions will then saturate
as precipitation moves into the region. Unique to the SC
Lowcountry and SE Georgia is the fact that this event will be
rain/snow, with no meaningful probabilities of freezing
rain/sleet. Forecast soundings show that the entire column of
air will be below freezing, leading to an all snow forecast once
surface temperatures drop below freezing. Given the very cold
temperatures, the snow ratio could approach 20 to 1, also unique
for the area. This snow ratio is quite high and would result in
a "dry" snowfall. Given these details, Winter Storm Warning
criteria (2 inches) is possible across northern and inland areas
of the SC Lowcountry, with Winter Weather Advisory criteria
(1-2 inches) possible across the rest of the region, except for
counties south of I-16 in Georgia.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Unseasonably cold weather will continue through
early next week with the coldest conditions expected Saturday
night.

A reinforcing Arctic high will slide into the region Friday
night and then persist through Monday before shifting off the
Southeast coast. Cold advection during the day Saturday will
prevent high temps from climbing out of the mid 30s over inland
SC/GA. Closer to the coast where there will be fewer hours of
cold advection, highs should reach the low to mid 40s.

Saturday evening, temperatures will rapidly plummet, with most
areas in the 20s by 9pm. Overnight lows in the mid to upper
teens and 10-15 mph winds will produce wind chills in the single
digits for most of the night. We will likely need an Extreme
Cold Warning for the entire area Saturday night into Sunday
morning.

Sunday night lows will be in the upper teens, but wind speeds
will be notably weaker, so wind chills will mainly be 10-15
degrees. A Cold Weather Advisory is likely for Sunday night.

Lake Moultrie winds: Winds out of the northwest sustained in
the 20 to 25 knot range with gusts of 25 to 30 knots may require
a Lake Wind Advisory Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV through the 12Z TAF
period.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Predominantly VFR through the extended
period, with increasing potential for impacts Saturday associated
with developing low pressure offshore of the Southeastern coast.

&&

.MARINE...
A potent surface low will develop off the SC coast on Saturday,
then shift northeast on Sunday. A period of Gale force winds is
expected during this period in all zones except Charleston
Harbor where solid Small Craft Advisory conditions are
anticipated. It`s a bit too early to issue a Gale Watch, but
there is high confidence that we`ll eventually need one.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Low Temperatures:

January 31:
KCHS: 15/1966
KCXM: 19/1966
KSAV: 16/1966

February 1:
KCHS: 21/1977
KCXM: 23/1900
KSAV: 23/1977

February 2:
KCHS: 19/1980
KCXM: 17/1917
KSAV: 18/1917

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

January 31:
KCHS: 36/1948
KCXM: 34/1936
KSAV: 37/1909

February 1:
KCHS: 38/1980
KCXM: 36/1900
KSAV: 38/1900

February 2:
KCHS: 38/1980
KCXM: 38/1898
KSAV: 38/1951

Record Snowfall:

January 31:
KCHS: 0.6/1977
KSAV: 1.3/1977

February 1:
KCHS: no record established
KSAV: no record established

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KCLX radar remains out of service. More parts are on order.
We hope to have the radar restored by Saturday. Users should
use adjacent WSR-88D sites, including KCAE, KLTX, KJAX, KVAX and
KJGX.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

CPM/JRL