North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

202
FXUS62 KCHS 032325
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
725 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Unsettled weather expected through Monday.

- 2) Cooler temperatures along with breezy to windy conditions
  are expected next week.

- 3) Coastal flooding is likely next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Unsettled weather expected through Monday.

A rather soggy pattern is shaping up the next 48 hours as high
pressure moves out of the way and rather deep upper troughing
pivots over the eastern US. Broad southwesterly flow has already
begun to overspread the area with a plume of rich Gulf moisture
streaming northward into the Carolinas. To our north a slowly
advancing backdoor front has made its way to near the SC/NC
border providing a focus for heavy rainfall north of our area
this afternoon. With PWAT values ranging around  2.3 inches
this afternoon, our 12z sounding broke the daily record high at
Charleston with a PWAT of 2.32 inches, scattered to numerous
showers and embedded thunderstorms have developed across the
area. These slow moving storms will be capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall with rainfall amounts around 1 inch or
so. Storms should continue to slowly push northward throughout
the afternoon and into the early evening before diminishing
overnight.

The big rains look to come on Sunday into Monday as our upper
trough deepens across the eastern US and eventually pushes the
cold front through our area sometime on Monday. By Sunday the
slowing backdoor front should stall somewhere north of our area
as a weak surface disturbance lifts north out of the northern
Gulf Coast. PWATS will continue to climb to around 2.3 to 2.4
inches which is well above the 98h percentile for PWATS and
nearing daily record highs for PWATS. Scattered to numerous
showers and storms are expected to develop by midday along the
subtle seabreeze and spread inland during the afternoon.
However, this is just the beginning as the heavier rain arrives
during the early evening to overnight hours Sunday into early
Monday morning as the surface disturbance lifts across the area
and the cold front moves into the area. Widespread moderate rain
should overspread the area from southwest to northeast with
pockets of heavier rain embedded. Rainfall amounts look to
range in the 1 to 3 maybe 2 to 4 inch range and given high PWAT
values some localized higher totals of 5 to 6 inches cannot be
ruled out. Given the rather spread out nature of the rain, this
event is looking more like a good soaking rain that helps chip
away at our long standing drought conditions rather than a
widespread flooding rain threat. However, given some areas
along the coast have already picked up 1 to 2 inches today and
the potential for locally higher pockets in and around the major
metro areas a flash flood threat does exist if storms are able
to sit over the poor drainage areas long enough. As a result we
are under a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for excessive rainfall.
Rain will likely linger along the coast through Monday morning
before the front eventually pushes offshore leading to drier
conditions late Monday afternoon and evening. Light rain could
linger even longer depending on the speed of the front but all
risks for heavy rain should end by Monday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Cooler temperatures with breezy to windy conditions
are expected next week.

Confidence is steadily increasing that a strong cold air damming
(CAD) event will impact the Carolinas into Georgia next week as high
pressure wedges south across much of the Southeast States. The wedge
front looks to clear the Altamaha River Monday night as drier air
advects to the south in its wake. The pressure pattern will evolve
into a classic CAD by daybreak Tuesday as some degree of surface
cyclogenesis initiates offshore of the Georgia or Northeast Florida
coast. The strength, timing and position of this low is still a bit
in question, but its overall propagation looks slow and will only
help to further tighten the pressure gradient across the area.
Breezy to windy conditions are likely to occur Tuesday into
Wednesday as a result with wind gusts approaching 30 mph inland with
35-45 mph across the coastal corridor. The strongest gusts look to
occur along the beaches where the latest NBM 24-hr probabilities for
wind gusts >40 mph are running about 35-65%, highest from roughly
Hilton Head south to Sapelo Island, including Tybee Island. A Wind
Advisory (minimum criteria: sustained 30 mph or wind gusts 40 mph)
will likely needed for portions of the coast Tuesday into Wednesday
with a Lake Wind Advisory for Lake Moultrie. Winds could end up
being a bit higher on some of the elevated bridges around the
Charleston and Savannah Metro Areas and over the elevated, exposed
bridges and highways heading out to the various barrier islands.

In addition to the winds, it will be noticeably cooler mid-week with
the strong CAD in place. Complicating matters is the potential for
shower activity to push inland from off the Atlantic, especially
across portions of Southeast Georgia. With drier air advecting
south, the opens up the possibility for some diabatic cooling to
occur, which models never handle well in these scenarios. This is
typically why the NBM tends to exhibit such a warm bias in cold air
damming events. The colder side of the latest NBM guidance as
favored given this bias, but even this may prove too warm in places,
especially if winds end up being more backed with time, particularly
well inland. The best rain chances Tuesday will be directed into
coastal Georgia and over the coastal waters with a very tight net
moisture gradient expected to occur. PWATs look to range from 0.60-
0.70" across interior Southeast South Carolina to around 2" across
McIntosh County, GA. Drier conditions are expected for Wednesday
into Thursday, although some degree of shower activity may linger
along parts of coastal Georgia.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Coastal flooding and significant coastal hazards
are expected next week.

Coastal Flooding: Strong northeast winds associated with a wedge of
high pressure inland and low pressure offshore in combination with
high astronomical tide levels will likely support coastal flooding
issues next week. The pattern suggests a minor/moderate saltwater
inundation setup by mid-week, but even major coastal flooding cannot
be ruled out during the peak of the event given persistent/strong
northeasterly winds and building seas along the Southeast U.S.
Coast. Coastal Flood Watches/Warnings and/or Advisories could
be needed.

Rip Currents/High Surf/Beach Erosion: The setup looks favorable for
strong and dangerous rip currents by Tuesday with stiff northeast
winds expected. In addition, there will be an increased risk for
high surf along the beaches with the latest NWPS guidance showing a
potential for 4-7 ft breakers developing in the surf zone by Tuesday
afternoon and lingering into Wednesday. A High Surf Advisory may
eventually be needed for some beaches. Significant beach erosion is
also likely, particularly around times of high tide. NWPS beach
erosion probabilities are highest around the Tuesday afternoon high
tide.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z TAFs: Radar indicates numerous showers across our area,
with flight restrictions associated with these showers. Areas
with no showers are generally VFR. Instead of getting fancy and
trying to time out the showers impacting the TAF sites with
flight restrictions versus no showers at the TAF sites and VFR,
opted to simplify the TAFs and have prevailing showers with
MVFR. Though, brief IFR is possible in the heaviest showers
overnight. The showers will increase in intensity Sunday
afternoon.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible with
elevated rain chances Sunday into Monday. Elevated rain chances will
linger near KSAV through Tuesday. Gusty winds are likely Monday
night into Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight through Monday: Wind/seas are expected to remain well
below Small Craft Advisory levels as high pressure lingers
across the western Atlantic this weekend. In general, onshore
winds should top out near 10-15 kt, with modest surging each
afternoon along the land/sea interface. Seas will generally
range between 1-3 ft. However, increasing chances of
showers/thunderstorms are expected through Sunday, which could
lead to gusty winds and reduced vsbys at times, especially late
Sunday. A cold front will be pushing through the region Monday
morning, pushing the heaviest rainfall south of the area by the
evening.

Monday Night through Wednesday: The main forecast concern still
centers on the elevated risk for sustained gales Tuesday and Tuesday
night, possibly lingering into Wednesday as a tight pressure
gradient develops between inland high pressure and offshore low
pressure. There is even a growing potential for wind gusts to
approach storm-force, mainly over the offshore waters from Edisto
Beach to Altamaha Sound out 20-60 NM. NBM 24-hr max wind gust
probabilities for >48 kt in this area are running 20-35%, but it is
not exactly clear how frequent these gusts will become should they
occur. Much will depend on how tight the pressure gradient
eventually becomes and where the greatest pinching sets up. Gale
Watches/Warnings will eventually be needed for all nearshore and
offshore waters with some potential for Storm Watches/Warnings,
again, mainly over the offshore waters. For Charleston Harbor, there
is a potential for gale-force gusts Tuesday into Tuesday night and a
Gale Watch/Warning may eventually be needed there as well. At the
very least, a Small Craft Advisory will be issued. Maximum seas look
to occur Tuesday night, ranging from 5-9 ft nearshore waters and 9-
12 ft over the offshore waters.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

October 3:
KCHS: 75/1986

October 4:
KCHS: 75/1995
KSAV: 76/1995


Record Precipitation:

October 5:
KCXM: 1.17/1915

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Black/ST