North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

736
FXUS62 KCHS 182321
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
721 PM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Aviation and Marine Sections have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Below normal temperatures and gusty winds will continue as
  a powerful nor`easter meanders offshore of the North Carolina
  Outer Banks and Mid-Atlantic States.

- 2) The risk for high surf and dangerous rip currents will
  persist into early this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Below normal temperatures and gusty winds will
continue as a powerful nor`easter meanders offshore of the North
Carolina Outer Banks and Mid-Atlantic States.

This Afternoon and Tonight: A nor`easter off the Outer Banks will
steadily deepen through tonight, helping high pressure to build
across the Southeast United States and maintain breezy northerly
winds locally through late day into early evening hours. Cold air
advection associated with the airmass will help offset a full day of
insolation, keeping temps well below normal locally for this time of
year. In general, high temps should peak in the mid-upper 60s today.
Clear skies and rain-free conditions will also promote stronger
cooling overnight, with low temps reaching the mid-upper 40s inland
to mid-upper 50s closer to the coast, warmest along the beaches
where the airmass is slightly more modified by an onshore flow
coming off warmer Atlantic waters.

Monday through Saturday: Latest guidance continues to support a nor-
easter located well of the NC coast Monday morning while strong high
pressure over the Northeast United States stretches south into the
Southeast United States. Although uncertainty remains in regards to
the nor`easter position and duration at the nearest position off the
Mid-Atlantic coast early week, the bulk of guidance indicates it
will very slowly shift further offshore and away from the region mid
to late week. High pressure looks to prevail across the Southeast as
this process unfolds, leading to dry/sunny days through much of the
week. The setup supports a modifying airmass early to mid week with
afternoon highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s on Monday, returning
to the low-mid 70s by mid-week. However, clear skies and weaker
winds will still favor cool nights, with low temps generally in the
low-mid 40s inland to low-mid 50s near the coast Tuesday morning
warming a few degrees for overnight periods mid-late week.


KEY MESSAGE 2: High surf and dangerous rip currents possible into
early next week.

High Surf: Gusty north-northeast winds and prolonged fetch will
support large breaking waves along SC/GA beaches today, with the
largest expected to occur along GA beaches due to a more favorable
onshore flow. Breakers as high as 4-6 ft are expected along GA
beaches, supporting a High Surf Advisory today into about midday
Monday, although it`s possible conditions improve sufficiently
beforehand as winds weaken late morning Monday and gradually turn
more north by afternoon hours. Conditions along the SC coast should
support 3-4 ft breakers at times during the same period.

Rip Currents: Strong/gusty winds, building waves, and long period
swell associated with a favorable north-northeast fetch along the
Southeast Coast supports a High Risk for rip currents today through
Monday, although some improvement to marine conditions is expected
early week. A Moderate Risk is in place for all beaches Tuesday. An
enhanced risk for rip currents could persist into the middle of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through the 00Z
TAF period. NNE winds will remain elevated overnight, generally
around 10 knots. NNE wind gusts will return in the morning,
around 15 to 20 knots at all terminals.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Breezy northerly winds possible on Monday
at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
through the middle of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight: Dangerous marine conditions remain across local
waters this afternoon and into the night as a tight pressure
gradient occurs between a strengthening nor`easter off the NC Outer
Banks and high pressure building into the Southeast United States.
However, guidance suggests cold air advection is at its peak early
this afternoon, with latest obs remaining below gale force/gusts.
Given low-lvl wind fields and anticipated cold air advection waning
for the rest of the day, Gale Warnings have been replaced with Small
Craft Advisories across nearshore waters, but still remain across
offshore waters through late night. It`s possible the Gale Warnings
will be dropped by late evening hours offshore as well. Seas will
range from 6-9 ft nearshore and 9-13 ft offshore through
tonight.

Monday through Thursday: A nor`easter should be located well off the
NC coast Monday morning while strong high pressure over the
Northeast United States stretches south into the Southeast United
States. The interaction between these synoptic features will
continue to generate gusty north/northeast winds Monday morning, but
should trend weaker into Monday afternoon. A brief nocturnal surge
is possible Monday night, but seas will remain elevated regardless,
indicating Small Craft Advisories are likely to persist across
nearshore coastal waters through Tuesday. Larger seas hold on across
GA waters mid-week (6-7 ft), favoring longer duration Small Craft
Advisories across GA waters through much of Wednesday. Winds become
noticeably lower on Thursday as the pressure gradient slackens.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday evening for GAZ217-219-
     239-241.
     High Surf Advisory until noon EDT Monday for GAZ217-219-239-
     241.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday evening for SCZ148>151.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ360-362.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ364.
     Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Monday for AMZ380-382-384.

&&

$$

CPM/DPB