North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

363
FXUS62 KCHS 021120
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
620 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Dense Fog Advisory along the GA coastal counties and the
adjacent nearshore waters has been canceled as observations
indicate that fog is very patchy. The Aviation Section was
updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A Cold Air Damming regime will set up over the SC
  Lowcountry and Southeastern GA today, leading to a low
  confidence high temperature forecast today.

- 2) Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected this week with
  increasing rain chances late week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A Cold Air Damming regime will set up over the
SC Lowcountry and Southeastern GA today, leading to a low
confidence high temperature forecast today.

This morning a dry cold front is forecast to push through the
region. Behind the cold front high pressure will build into the
region from the northeast. The high pressure will be centered
over the Mid- Atlantic, building into the southeastern states
along the eastern side of the Appalachian Mountains. Guidance
tends to not handle CAD events well, typically eroding the
wedge too early. High temperatures today are a blend of the NBM
and the NAM. While the temperature forecast today remains a low
confidence forecast, there will likely be a tight gradient of
temperatures across the region. Areas in the northeastern
portion of the forecast area (Berkeley Co and northern
Charleston Co) could struggle to reach 60, while along the
Altamaha River in GA temperatures could reach into the mid 70s.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected this
week with increasing rain chances late week into the weekend.

On Tuesday, the wedge of high pressure/CAD setup will gradually
erode and shift offshore as a 586 dm ridge builds over the Florida
Peninsula. This will establish a deep-layered high pressure pattern
centered offshore around midweek, persisting through the weekend.
The pattern will promote a drastic warming trend and unseasonably
warm conditions. Despite a small spread in maximum temperature
guidance, confidence remains high that, aside from Tuesday, highs
each day will reach the upper 70s to lower and middle 80s away from
the cooler coastline, around 10 degrees above early March normals.
Overnight lows will also trend milder, gradually rising into the
upper 50s to lower 60s. There is potential for overnight
temperatures to approach within a couple of degrees of record high
minimum values this weekend. See the Climate section below.

Additionally, moisture will increase late week as ensemble guidance
indicates precipitable water values rising to around 1.1 to 1.2
inches, near the 85th percentile for early March. While large scale
forcing appears weak, the presence of deeper moisture and modest
instability should support isolated to scattered showers from late
week into the weekend, primarily during the afternoon and evening
hours. Thunder chances remain low, though an isolated storm cannot
be ruled out. Flooding risk appears minimal at this time, with
probabilities of more than a quarter inch of rainfall in any 24-hour
period through Saturday night generally at or below 20% per NBM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A backdoor cold front will push southward through the forecast
area this morning with high pressure building in behind it. Low
cigs are being observed on the backside of the front and are
expected to impact KCHS/KJZI by mid morning, with IFR cigs
likely and LIFR cigs possible. Cigs at KSAV will most likely be
MVFR to IFR. Restrictive cigs will linger into the afternoon
when all terminals are forecast to go VFR. Another round of
fog/low cigs is expected tonight, however given timing and
intensity uncertainty the 12Z TAFs only feature MVFR cigs.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Restrictive ceilings are possible
overnight into the early morning hours each night through late week
due to low stratus/fog.

&&

.MARINE...
A backdoor cold front is progged to push through the region
mid-morning and will end the threat for sea fog as winds out of
the NE increase as high pressure builds in behind the front.
Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all waters outside of
the Charleston Harbor for wind gusts of 25 knots.

Surface flow will shift out of the east by midweek then out of the
southeast by late week on the backside of high pressure, with speeds
and seas staying well below Small Craft Advisory levels. We will
need to monitor the potential for sea fog given the warm, moist air
that is expected to move over the cooler shelf waters.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 7:
KCHS: 63/1992

March 8:
KCHS: 63/2022
KSAV: 65/1880

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ352.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this
     evening for AMZ354.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for AMZ374.

&&

$$

BRS/CPM