North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

734
FXUS62 KCHS 132258
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
658 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Key Messages 1 and 2 have been updated to reflect severe weather
potential and cold weather early next week. The Aviation Section
has been updated to reflect the 0Z TAF issuance. The Marine
Section has been updated to reflect latest trends for Small
Craft Advisories this afternoon and the potential for additional
marine hazards next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A strong cold front will bring rain, gusty winds, and the
  possibility of severe thunderstorms on Monday.

- 2) Frost/freeze is possible Monday night and Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A strong cold front will bring rain, gusty winds,
and the possibility of severe thunderstorms on Monday.

Just east of the Rockies a deep upper level trough will develop and
push eastward Sunday into Monday, ejecting off the East Coast
Wednesday. At the surface a strong low pressure system will develop
associated with the upper level trough and impact the region Sunday
into Monday. Sunday evening a warm front will lift north through the
region, yielding very mild overnight temperatures in the low to mid
60s. Additionally the warm front could bring some showers and
possibly thunderstorms to the region Sunday afternoon. On Monday a
cold front will push through the region, accompanied by a line of
showers and thunderstorms. Models are fairly consistent in the
timing of the line, generally in the afternoon. With the region
positioned in the warm sector dew points are forecast to reach into
the mid to upper 60s. Instability looks to be the limiting factor in
the severe potential, with around 700-1000 J/kg forecast across the
region. Shear looks impressive with 30-45 knots in the GFS/ECMWF for
Monday. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, highlighted in
the 15-30% severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction
Center. Given the favorable shear values and low level helicity
values around 100 m2/s2 the main hazards will be damaging wind
gusts and tornadoes.

Moisture will not be an issue for rainfall on Monday, with PWAT
values forecast to push upwards of 1.4", which would be above the
90% value according to SPC climatology. Generally around 0.5-1" is
expected across the region between Sunday and Monday`s
precipitation. The NBM shows ~35% probability of exceeding 1"
generally across the SC Lowcountry.

In addition to the rainfall and the severe threat, breezy conditions
are expected across the region outside of any showers/thunderstorms.
The NBM shows probabilities of 30 mph wind gusts upwards of 60 to
70% across the SC Lowcountry and southeastern GA on Monday. A Lake
Wind Advisory may be required for Lake Moultrie and a Wind Advisory
cannot be ruled out for portions of the forecast area.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Frost/freeze is possible Monday night and Tuesday
night.

In the wake of the cold front mentioned in Key Message 1, drastically
cooler temperatures will be advected into the region. Monday night
and Tuesday night could see freezing temperatures, generally west
of I-95. Winds will remain elevated Monday night, negating the
threat of frost formation. However, with calm and clear conditions
Tuesday night could yield frost formation across the coastal counties,
where temperatures will dip into the mid to upper 30s. A Freeze
Warning/Frost Advisory may be required for portions, if not all,
of the local forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
0z TAFs: Winds should decrease to light and variable by 1Z
across the terminals. As temperatures cool in the low 50s late
tonight, ground fog or patchy fog is possible. Based on recent
runs of the HRRR, sfc condensation pressure deficits will remain
the lowest across KSAV. The KSAV TAF will feature a TEMPO from
9-12Z for MVFR fog. Any fog should dissipate during the first
hour or two of daylight Saturday morning.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible at
in showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Monday evening at
CHS/JZI/SAV terminals. Gusty winds are also expected on Monday at
all terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
This Afternoon and Tonight: High pressure will prevail across local
waters under a zonal flow aloft, resulting in winds/seas that
steadily improve throughout the day and overnight. In general, east-
northeast winds will range between 10-15 kt this afternoon, then
decrease to 5-10 kt or less late afternoon and tonight as a
weak pressure gradient is placed directly across the region.
Seas will should range between 3-4 ft across waters this afternoon,
then continue to subside to 2-3 ft overnight. The exception is
across outer Georgia waters, where seas briefly remain in the
4-6 ft range into mid-late afternoon, before subsiding to 4-5 ft
late day into tonight. A Small Craft Advisory remains in place
until 5 PM across outer Georgia waters due to lingering 6 ft seas.

Saturday through Wednesday: High pressure will prevail across local
waters with a weak pressure gradient in place through Saturday,
keeping wind/seas below Small Craft Advisory levels across local
waters. A warm front should lift north across the area Sunday,
setting up strong southerly winds across local waters Sunday night
into Monday ahead of a cold front arriving Monday afternoon.
Although a warm flow across cooler waters would suggest some
limitation to low-lvl mixing, 1000mb geostrophic wind fields
approaching 40-45 kt suggest a solid Small Craft Advisory level
setup across all local waters for a bulk of the day Monday, along
with the potential for gale force wind gusts across nearshore
SC waters (including the CHS Harbor where low-lvl mixing could
be enhanced due to land influences) and outer Georgia waters.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KCLX radar is scheduled for radome panel replacement March
17-20, 2026. The radar will be down during this time. Users are
encouraged to use data from the following nearby radar sites
during the maintenance outage:

KCAE - Columbia, SC
KLTX - Wilmington, NC
KJAX - Jacksonville, FL
KVAX - Moody AFB, GA
KJGX - Robbins AFB, GA&&

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

CPM/DPB/NED