North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

449
FXUS62 KCHS 260046
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
746 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
After meandering a bit farther inland over the past few hours,
the warm front has now stalled and runs roughly along a North
Charleston-Beaufort-Savannah-Hinesville-Reidsville line. The CAD
has only been reinforced over the past 1-2 hours as rain spreads
into the Lowcountry and Southeast Georgia. Inland pressures
have risen slightly and winds have turned northwest with the
onset of a bit more diabatic cooling. Any temperatures rises
have likely peaked and will begin to fall overnight as the cold
front eventually shifts offshore. The freezing line at 26/0030z
was still located across the far southern portions of the CSRA
and Southern Midlands, just outside of the forecast area. It is
possible a small area in far northern Dorchester and Berkeley
Counties could drop below freezing as rain falls; however,
confidence in this is too small to include a mention of freezing
rain. Convection moving into coastal Georgia has so far been
undercut by the shallow cold air in the wedge. The only
exception has been down closer the Altamaha River. There still a
risk for a strong tstm along parts of the Georgia coast with a
very low-end risk for damaging winds or even an isolated tornado
for the next 1-2 hours.

Grids overnight have been updated to better reflect the ongoing
CAD inland. Thankfully, stratus build-down has not resulted in
widespread dense fog, but locally dense fog will linger until
steadier rains move in.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Wet and chilly conditions tonight.

- 2) Arctic air will yield very cold temperatures Monday night
  into next weekend, with Cold Weather Advisories possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Wet and chilly conditions tonight.

Guidance continues to indicate a solid convective band will
approach the CWA from the west later today, timed to reach the
inland counties during the early evening and the coast before
midnight. High resolution guidance shows a solid band of showers
with embedded thunderstorms remain along and ahead of the cold
front. Temperatures and dewpoints may continue to warm into this
evening. However, forecast soundings indicate that temperatures
in the 50s to low 60s should yield little to no instability
under a significant temperature inversion. The environment will
feature strong deep shear, which should aid in keeping the
convective line organized. Line segments of strong storms may
reach interior GA, possibly highlighted with Special Weather
Statements for strong gusty winds. Overall, the convective line
should trend weaker as it approaches the coast. Ragged showers
may continue to develop ahead of the cold front into the late
night hours. By the pre-dawn hours, conditions should become dry
with gusty west winds.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Arctic air will yield very cold temperatures
Monday night into next weekend, with Cold Weather Advisories
possible.

Not too much has changed regarding the upcoming temperatures
this week. As strong arctic high pressure (~1040 mb) ushers
cold, dry air into the region post-FROPA conditions, temps. are
forecast to be well below normal. The ESAT NAEFS standardized
anomalies highlights this well with values ranging from -2 to -4
for minimum temperatures up through the weekend. Also, the
ECMWF MSLP anomalies showcase values from +2 to +5 across the
Southeast through the majority of the week. It`s also fairly
high model confidence as IQR shows a 1 to 2 degree spread for
minimum temperature values Tues. and Wed. morning. Let`s talk
about the upcoming week.

Mon. night/Tues. morning: Minimum temperatures forecast to drop
into the mid-teens and low 20s west of I-95 (including the
Francis Marion Forest) with temps. a tad warmer near the
coastline. Mixed the NBM/NBM10 into the overnight temperatures
as the NBM appeared to be struggling to realize the strength of
the arctic air funneling into the region. If you take a look at
the 850 temps. aloft, they even dip below 0C overnight into the
morning. These conditions combined with light west-northwesterly
winds could result in widespread wind chill values in the low
to mid teens from interior counties all the way down to the
coastline. Some guidance has been indicating that minimum wind
chill values could drop range around 10 degrees for counties
like Bulloch, Evans, Tattnall, and Candler. A Cold Weather
Advisory will likely be needed for the entire forecast region.

Tues. night/Wed. morning: Forecast remains a bit warmer as
temperatures range in the low to mid 20s across the interior
counties with upper 20s along the coastline. Highest chance for
temperatures below 20 degrees seems to be across inland
southeast Georgia. Thus, it seems more likely we would need a
Cold Weather Advisory across those portions of the forecast
region.

This cold airmass will likely stick around through late this
week as a reinforcing cold front moves through on Wednesday
night and pushes another shot of cold air into the region from
the northwest. It`s reasonable to say that we could have a few
hours of wind chill values below 20 degrees every morning into
the weekend and additional Cold Weather Advisories might be
needed.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
26/00z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: LLWS will linger through 03z. Widespread rains
will push in from the west impact all terminals. IFR conditions
in the CAD will make a run for LIFR thresholds in the rain. Risk
for IFR will linger until early Monday as a cold front shifts
offshore. Cigs should mix out to VFR by mid-morning.

Extended Aviation Forecast: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Expanded the Marine Dense Fog Advisory north into the Charleston
County waters and extended it until 1 AM.

Tonight: A fairly slow warm-up in temperatures this morning as
the cold-air damming (CAD) holding firm across the region.
Taking a look at the 15Z surface analysis indicates a nearly
stationary warm front located across the local marines zones,
yielding southeasterly winds at 10 to 15 kt. A bit of tough
forecast this evening as it largely depends on how much of the
CAD breaks down and if this warm front eventually lifts across
the region. As a strong cold front extending across the Deep
South approaches the region, this aforementioned dense fog
should clear out. As this front marches towards the coastline,
southeasterly winds will rapidly pick up this evening with
speeds ranging from 15 to 20 with gusts up to 30 kt. This front
should also haul a band of showers and thunderstorms along with
it through the overnight into the early morning hours on Monday.
It`s important to note that a couple of these thunderstorms
could be severe esp. as it passes over the Atlantic waters. Seas
will range from 6 to 8 ft as the east-southeasterly swell
continues to build into the local waters. As marine conditions
remain quite hazardous, Small Craft Advisories have been issued
for ALL marine zones (except for the Charleston Harbor).

Monday through Thursday: After the front passes through the marine
zones, expect west-northwesterly winds to remain elevated at 15 to
20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Expect the swell to taper back with
seas ranging from 4 to 7 ft through Tuesday. Therefore, Small Craft
Advisories will be ongoing through Tuesday morning with the
continuation of hazardous marine conditions. As for the remainder of
the period , marine conditions become less chaotic with winds
remaining under advisory criteria and seas backing down to 2 to 4
ft.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KCLX radar will remain out of service. Critical parts are
on order and should arrive on Monday. Users should use adjacent
WSR-88D sites, including KCAE, KLTX, KJAX, KVAX and KJGX.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for AMZ350-352-354.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ350-352-354.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ374.

&&

$$