North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

234
FXUS62 KCHS 260249
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1049 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Temperatures warm to near-record values on Friday.

- 2) A dry cold front brings cooler temperatures this weekend,
  bringing a pattern change for this weekend and possible fire
  weather concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Temperatures build to near-record warmth on
Friday.

Eroding surface high pressure moving off into the Atlantic from
the northeast should result in skies becoming at least partly
cloudy this afternoon, allowing for a rapid warm-up into the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Vast majority of models support this,
though the NAM based models would suggest the region remains
stuck with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s...confidence is
only moderate as a result. Can`t rule out some patchy fog,
especially for areas south of the I-16 corridor overnight,
though it appears to be marginal at this time.

As a broad ridge axis builds/expands across Texas, the region
falls under the eastern periphery of the upper level feature
with geopotential heights remaining fairly steady. At the
surface, a high pressure will be in the western Atlantic, with
temperatures expected to rise each day as warm 850mb
temperatures overspread the region. Afternoon highs in the lower
to mid 70s are expected for Wednesday, upper 70s to mid 80s on
Thursday, and near-record upper 80s to lower 90s on Friday, 5-10
degrees cooler along the coast. Precipitation chances look to
remain slim given the synoptic scale descent aloft, though some
weak showers can`t be ruled out this afternoon for areas south
of the I-16 corridor given weak isentropic lift aloft.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A dry cold front brings cooler temperatures this
weekend, bringing a pattern change for this weekend and
possible fire weather concerns.

A dry cold front is expected to move through late Friday night
into Saturday, ushering in significantly cooler temperatures for
the weekend. Afternoon highs behind the front on Saturday look
to remain in the mid 60s across southeast South Carolina, rising
to the mid 70s across portions of southeast Georgia.
Gusty/breezy north- northeasterly winds are expected throughout
the day behind the cold front sustained in the teens to lower
20s with gusts 30-35 mph, possibly raising the need for a Lake
Wind Advisory on Lake Moultrie. In addition to the breezy winds,
dewpoints will also be lowering into the 40s and then 30s.
Given the dry antecedent conditions and ongoing drought, there
is growing concern for elevated fire weather conditions on
Saturday, with a lesser extent continuing on Sunday given the
weaker winds though the dry conditions will continue.

Latest round of models continue to keep probabilities for
overnight lows in the upper 30s to below 50% into Sunday
morning, with areas along the coast remaining in the upper 40s
to lower 50s. High temperatures remain a few degrees below
normal on Sunday in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with the
thermostat set to rise again into the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The 00z TAF period begins with VFR conditions at KCHS, KJZI, and
KSAV. KSAV just recently went from MVFR to VFR and it is
possible there could be MVFR ceilings around for the next couple
of hours. There are also areas of light rain and drizzle along
the coast, but this activity should dissipate through the
evening. The main concern for the overnight will be fog
development close to sunrise. As of now, the best chances appear
to be across southeast Georgia and still west of KSAV. However,
some light fog could impact KSAV. At KCHS and KJZI, shallow
ground fog is expected with no significant visibility
reductions.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. Expect gusty winds behind a dry
cold front on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
The pinched surface pressure gradient continues to create
breezy northeasterly winds, though the cold air wedge will be
weakening throughout he day, allowing for winds to weaken and
seas to calm. Winds will remain out of the north- northeast
into Thursday, becoming east-southeasterly throughout the
afternoon hours.

A dry cold front is expected to move through Friday night into
Saturday, bringing near gale to possibly gale conditions to all
of our coastal waters early Saturday morning into Sunday. Waves
along the coast may peak in the 5-6 foot range, rising into the
8-10 foot range near the 20NM mark, with waters near the 60 NM
marker near 12 feet.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

March 27:
KCHS: 87/2021
KCXM: 81/2021
KSAV: 89/2021

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ374.

&&

$$