North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

906
FXUS62 KCHS 270555
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1255 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Cold Weather Advisory in effect from now until 9 AM is
unchanged. Snow remains in the forecast for this weekend as a
coastal low could bring wintry precipitation to the region. The
aviation section has been updated to reflect the 06Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Unseasonably cold weather will occur through early next
  week.

- 2) Developing low pressure offshore could bring winter weather
  to the region this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Unseasonably cold weather will occur through early next
 week.

Strong cold advection will continue through daybreak as Arctic
high pressure expands into the region from the west. Morning
lows are expected to dip into the upper teens far inland to
lower 20s coastal. Surface winds around 10 mph will produce wind
chills of 10-20F through 9am, therefore a Cold Weather Advisory
is in effect for all areas.

Slightly warmer overnight lows and lower wind speeds should
preclude the need for any Cold Weather Advisories Tuesday night
through Friday.

An even colder, 1050 mb Arctic high will slide into the
Southeast Friday night and persist into Tuesday. Based on
forecast wind chills, we`ll likely need Cold Weather Advisories
most nights, potentially extending into the daytime hours. The
lowest temps are currently forecast for Saturday night where mid
to upper teens are expected in most areas. If the 10-15 mph
surface winds occur, we`ll need Extreme Cold Warnings for most
if not all of the area. High temps Saturday and Sunday are not
expected to get out of the 30s.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Developing low pressure offshore could bring winter
weather to the region this weekend.

Deterministic and ensemble models are in good agreement
regarding the synoptic set up for this weekend. A longwave
trough will be located over the eastern CONUS late week as a
potent shortwave digs across the large scale trough. WPC Cluster
Analysis is in very good agreement with this feature, as shown
through the 24-hour Mean 500-hPa Heights and Anomalies plots.
Additionally, a 250 hPa jet streak will be located just offshore
of the southeast coast. Surface cyclogenesis is expected off
the southeast coast this weekend. However, this is where the
exact details start to become obscure. The placement, strength,
and timing of the low formation could have significant
implications to the amount and type of precipitation across the
SC Lowcountry and SE Georgia. What we do know- cold air will be
in place, as outlined in Key Message 1, and the synoptic set up
favor a low forming off the southeast coast. What we do not
know- where/when/how much wintry precipitation could
potentially impact the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the 06Z TAF period.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR for much of the extended period.
Risk for impacts from low pressure developing off the Southeast
U.S. will increase Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Gusty NW winds should gradually settle down through daybreak as
the Arctic high builds more fully into the area. Small Craft
Advisories will expire by mid-morning for all waters.

Friday night through Sunday could be a significant marine wind
event if the guidance trends continue. Strong low pressure could
develop along the SC coast while strong, cold high pressure
builds in from the west. At a minimum Small Craft Advisories
would be needed for all zones, however there are increasing
chances for Gales late Saturday into Sunday morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Low Temperatures:

January 31:
KCHS: 15/1966
KCXM: 19/1966
KSAV: 16/1966

February 1:
KCHS: 21/1977
KCXM: 23/1900
KSAV: 23/1977

February 2:
KCHS: 19/1980
KCXM: 17/1917
KSAV: 18/1917

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

January 31:
KCHS: 36/1948
KCXM: 34/1936
KSAV: 37/1909

February 1:
KCHS: 38/1980
KCXM: 36/1900
KSAV: 38/1900

February 2:
KCHS: 38/1980
KCXM: 38/1898
KSAV: 38/1951

Record Snowfall:

January 31:
KCHS: 0.6/1977
KSAV: 1.3/1977

February 1:
KCHS: no record established
KSAV: no record established

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KCLX radar remains out of service. Critical parts are on
order and are now scheduled to arrive today. Users should use
adjacent WSR-88D sites, including KCAE, KLTX, KJAX, KVAX and
KJGX.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ087-
     088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ040-
     042>045-047>052.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
     AMZ350-352-354.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ374.

&&

$$

CPM/JRL