North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

843
FXUS62 KCHS 021131
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
731 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Key Message 1 and the Aviation section have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Less thunderstorm activity expected today as a cold front
  moves through, ushering in cooler and drier air into the
  middle of the week.

- 2) Minor coastal flooding is possible along the Charleston
  and Colleton County coastline with the upcoming evening high
  tide.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Less thunderstorm activity expected today as a
cold front moves through, ushering in cooler and drier air into
the middle of the week.

Aloft, a well defined trough will drop southward from the Upper
Midwest and central Appalachians into VA and the Carolinas late
in the day. This will push a surface cold front southward as
well. The front is currently analyzed from west to east across
southeast SC. The front will continue to make steady southward
progress through the day, likely near the Savannah River by
midday and clearing the Altamaha River this evening. Regarding
convective chances, for southeast SC the best chance of
lingering showers will be in the morning before the front
clears the area and notably drier air filters in. The bigger
question mark is the southeast GA area ahead of the front this
afternoon. Outflow from the early morning convection has moved
through and with widespread cloud cover has helped to stabilize
the environment. If destabilization can occur and we get some
thunderstorm activity, there could be a conditional severe
threat as the combination of peak heating and moisture pooling
ahead of the front could align across southeast GA in the
afternoon hours. However, recent hi-res model runs have
definitely trended toward little to no convective development
and coverage this afternoon. If a few storms do develop, the
environment could yield an isolated damaging wind gust threat
for the region along and south of I-16. For now, this seems like
a low probability of occurrence.

Behind the front, considerably cooler air will be in place
overnight. Lows are forecast to fall into the low to mid 50s
away from the coast (about 10 degrees below normal). Then for
Wednesday, highs are forecast to only rise to around 80 (6-8
degrees below normal). With dewpoints forecast to fall into the
40s for much of the area, conditions should be exceedingly
comfortable for early June.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Minor coastal flooding is possible along the
Charleston and Colleton County coastline with the upcoming
evening high tide.

Gusty northeast winds will develop along the southeast SC coast
today behind a passing cold front. This northeast flow will
produce elevated tide levels, especially around the time of this
evening`s high tide (occurring around 1015 PM). The
astronomical tide level is 5.5 ft MLLW, so it would require a
rather anomalous 1.5 ft departure to reach the minor coastal
flood threshold of 7 ft MLLW. For context, historical analysis
shows that a departure of 1.5 ft or higher has only occurred
with ~7% of all minor coastal flood events on record. Still,
minor coastal flooding is possible, and a Coastal Flood Advisory
could be needed for the Charleston and Colleton county coasts.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The 12z TAF period begins with mostly VFR conditions at KCHS,
KJZI, and KSAV. The cold front has moved through KCHS and KJZI
and the first forecast challenge is determining if MVFR or IFR
ceilings will spread in. Some upstream observation sites are
reporting MVFR/IFR stratus but it is unclear to what extent it
will impact KCHS and KJZI. Current thinking is that it will move
in and stick around through midday. Breezy northeast flow will
spread in as well, with frequent gusts into the 18-22 knot range
expected. At KSAV, there remains a low shower/thunderstorm risk
this afternoon until the front moves through. Northeast winds
will become breezy as well. Any issues with restricted ceilings
will end this evening and the latter half of the forecast is
VFR.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Primarily VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Tuesday through Saturday: A cold front will push southward
across the coastal waters this morning through early afternoon,
ushering in breezy northeast winds. Accordingly, SCAs go into
effect across the coastal waters from north to south today with
6-8 ft seas prevailing across the coastal waters by sunset.
Charleston Harbor will likely see breezy conditions as well,
with 20-25 kt wind gusts through much of the day, though the
frequency of 25+ kt gusts looks to low to justify SCAs at this
point.

Then, later this evening through the overnight hours, high
pressure ridging in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast will usher a
reinforcing backdoor cold front/wind surge, with gusts
increasing to 30-35 kt across the coastal waters - especially
beyond 10 nm offshore - and seas peaking around 6-9 ft. Gale
force gusts are currently expected to be infrequent enough to
preclude the need for a warning, but further monitoring is
necessary. Additionally, later tonight into early Wednesday
morning will bring an increased chance for gusts to 25+ kt in
the Charleston Harbor, and an SCA may be issued later today.

Marine conditions gradually improve through the week as high
pressure continues to build in from the north. The ridging moves
nearly overhead by the end of the week, with exceptional marine
conditions possible Thursday into early next weekend.

Rip Currents: Strong northeast winds will spread along the
southeast SC/GA coast today as a cold front moves through. The
combination of strong northeast winds and increasing swell
energy will result in a Moderate Risk of rip currents at all
beaches today.

Looking ahead to Wednesday, northeast winds will remain strong
and swell energy and wave action will be higher than Tuesday.
This will result in a Moderate Risk for the Charleston County
beaches and a High Risk from Edisto Beach southward.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT
     Thursday for AMZ360.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT
     Thursday for AMZ362.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT
     Thursday for AMZ364.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
     Thursday for AMZ384.

&&

$$

BSH/CEB