North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

965
FXUS62 KCHS 282338
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
638 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north later today, then a cold front
will move through Monday afternoon. High pressure will build in
through late week, then a cold front could affect the area next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Early this evening: Surface analysis shows that a weak boundary
stretches across far eastern Charleston and Berkeley counties,
running up into the SC Midlands. This boundary will quickly lift
to the north and northeast through the evening as the forecast
area increasingly gets within the flow regime ahead of a strong
cold front approaching from the west. This will lead to
increasing southwest flow in the low-levels as the gradient
tightens and the low-level jet spreads in from the west. The
forecast remains dry through the overnight as any forcing and
moisture associated with the front will remain to the west
through sunrise.

Instead, the main forecast challenge revolves around the
potential for marine fog to develop and impact the immediate
coastline late tonight. Currently, there are no signs of marine
fog on satellite imagery or web cams along the coast of the
forecast area. But, there is a small area of dense fog along the
central FL coast that is showing signs of starting to slowly
advect up the coast. Though wind fields are progged to
strengthen starting in the early morning hours, there is still
time for fog to develop along the GA nearshore waters and impact
the coast as it potentially advects to the north and northeast.
However, we currently do not think there is a significant risk
of dense fog along the coast mainly due to the fact that winds
are expected to turn to be out of 220-230 degrees. This wind
direction should prevent much (if any) inland penetration of
fog.

The forecast area will remain well within the warm sector
through the night, resulting in very mild low temperatures in
the upper 50s. Such values would only be a few degrees shy of
normal high temperatures for late December.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A strong cold front will sweep through the area Monday
afternoon. Strong warm advection ahead of the front, along with
adiabatic compression, should allow surface temps to quickly
climb Monday morning. Warming could be somewhat moderated by
fairly extensive cloud cover. Far inland areas may not rise
above the mid 60s before the cold advection takes over, but the
rest of the area should easily hit 70 degrees by early
afternoon. Moisture will be quite limited with the front, so
only isolated showers are expected, mainly in southeast GA. 40
kt geostrophic winds with fairly deep mixing will result in
breezy conditions with some gusts to 30 mph at times. Winds on
Lake Moultrie could be close to Lake Wind Advisory Monday
afternoon and evening. However with water temperatures in the
mid 50s, mixing profiles should be relatively poor and the
strongest winds will be at the lake shore. We capped wind gusts
at about 23 kt with this forecast package.

Cool, dry weather expected Tuesday through Wednesday with lows
in the 20s/30s and highs in the low 50s

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Gradual warming late week into the weekend. Rain chances
increase Friday into Saturday as low pressure moves in from the
southwest.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The 00z TAF period begins with VFR ceilings at KCHS, KJZI, and
KSAV. Through sunrise, the main forecast challenge will be the
potential for marine fog to push onshore and potentially impact
the terminals. However, as winds pick up and turn out of the
southwest starting in the early morning hours, this should work
to keep fog confined to the immediate coast and just away from
the terminals. The best chance for fog impacts is at KJZI and we
will just have to monitor trends through the night for possible
amendments.

Otherwise, VFR conditions should mostly prevail,
though there is a chance that a narrow band of MVFR ceilings
could accompany a front as it moves through from late morning
through the early afternoon. There could even be a few showers,
but any impact at the terminals would be short-lived. The main
change will be gusty winds, first from the southwest starting by
mid morning. Winds will then shift to be westerly behind the
front starting in the early afternoon. Frequent gusts up to
around 25 knots can be expected.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions expected to prevail
through the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: The main forecast challenge revolves around the
potential for fog to develop and advect through the waters late
this evening through the early morning hours. Currently, there
are no signs of fog along the southeast GA or southeast SC coast
on satellite or web cams. There is an area of dense fog along
the central FL coast, and it is showing signs of starting to
slowly push off to the north. The fog potential is complicated
by the fact that winds are expected to turn southwesterly and
being to strengthen in the early morning hours. This should
create only a short window of time where fog could develop and
be an issue. One thing to watch is that the nearshore waters are
chilly (~56-58 degrees) which could delay the onset of
strengthening winds and allow for fog conditions to linger a bit
longer than model data currently suggests. Given the
uncertainties, we have delayed the onset of patchy fog to the
late evening across the GA waters, then allow fog to steadily
work up the coast through the early morning hours. Current
thinking is that fog should mostly be finished by sunrise.
Though winds will strengthen through the end of the tonight
period, the onset of Small Craft Advisory conditions will occur
after sunrise.

Monday through Thursday: Gusty SW to W winds expected Monday,
with seas gradually building over the outer waters. We now have
Small Craft Advisories for all waters including Charleston
Harbor for varying times Monday through Monday night. Conditions
drastically improve Tuesday as high pressure builds in.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 11 PM EST Monday for AMZ330.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ352.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ354.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 1 PM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH/JRL
MARINE...BSH/JRL