North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

012
FXUS62 KCHS 011105
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
705 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Aviation section has been updated for the 12z TAF issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Above normal temperatures will prevail across the region
  through the weekend and into early next week. The next round
  of increased humidity and elevated heat indices will come this
  weekend and early next week as well. Heat Advisories could be
  needed during this time.

- 2) Summertime convection returns on Friday and is expected to
  persist through the holiday weekend and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Above normal temperatures will prevail across
the region through the weekend and into early next week. The
next round of increased humidity and elevated heat indices will
come this weekend and early next week as well. Heat Advisories
could be needed during this time.

Ridging aloft will remain the dominant synoptic feature across
the region through the weekend and into early next week. At the
surface, high pressure will extend into the region from the
north today and Thursday, before a more typical subtropical high
starts to take over this weekend. The position of the high
today and Thursday will drive northeasterly flow across the
forecast area. The result will be seasonally below normal
dewpoints in the low to mid 60s for much of the area each day.
Highs will still be in the low to mid 90s each day, but these
low dewpoints will keep heat indices from outpacing air
temperatures by much. As the subtropical high takes hold over
the weekend, dewpoints will rise back into the 70s. When
combined with highs creeping up into the mid to upper 90s, heat
indices could rise into the 105-110 degree range for some areas.
Therefore, the potential for Heat Advisories will increase over
the weekend and into early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Summertime convection returns on Friday and is
expected to persist through the holiday weekend and into next
week.

Strong ridging will be over the eastern half of the U.S. Friday
morning, with a roughly 595 dam 500 mb High located to our
north. This High should remain in place and gradually weaken
late Friday through the holiday weekend. Surface troughing will
strengthen over the Southeast U.S. Friday and persist through
the holiday weekend, while High pressure is in the western
Atlantic. This pattern will gradually usher more moisture into
our region, with PWATs peaking in the 1.5-2" range. The
combination of the weakening ridge, increasing moisture, and
instability generated from above normal high temperatures should
cause summertime convection to return on Friday. At this time,
we only have slight chance to chance POPs for our GA counties in
the afternoon, while our SC counties may stay dry. The
convective coverage appears to increase on the 4th. That`s when
afternoon POPs are limited to a slight chance for mainly the
Charleston Tri-County, while areas south into GA have up to
chance POPs. Convection then increases in coverage and intensity
early next week. The convective setup will vary each day,
depending on how high CAPE and DCAPE values climb, if there is
any shear, along with the inland movement of the sea breeze.
Regardless, strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are
possible each day, with the main threat being damaging winds.
Locally heavy rainfall can also be expected. Convection is then
expected to dissipate each evening.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 12z
Thursday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms may bring
brief flight restrictions starting Friday and persisting into
the holiday weekend. Impacts are mostly likely each afternoon
and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through tonight: Northeast flow will prevail across the
local waters today and become a bit more east-northeast through
the overnight. The strongest winds will come today with speeds
up to around 15 knots and a few gusts up approaching 20 knots
possible. Overnight, speeds will come down into the 5-10 knot
range. Seas are expected to average 2-4 feet through the period.

Extended Marine: Very weak Low pressure off the Southeast Coast
will yield winds from the NE, then onshore on Thursday. As the
Low dissipates Thursday night, winds will generally stay onshore
most of the night. Winds clock around to SE by late Friday
afternoon, followed by the SW early on the 4th. Winds will then
have a typical summertime pattern for the holiday weekend. This
will consist of some backing during the day, with the highest
winds along the land/sea interface with the formation of the sea
breeze. Gusts could approach 20 kt, especially in Charleston
Harbor as the sea breeze moves through. At night, expect winds
to veer. Seas should stay 4 ft or less. No Small Craft
Advisories are expected. Additionally, isolated to scattered
convection will be possible for the holiday weekend.

Rip Currents: The combination of gusty NE, then onshore winds,
along with a 2 ft swell at 9 to 10 seconds will generate a
Moderate Risk of rip currents at our GA beaches today, and then
again on Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

July 4:
KCHS: 98/2023
KSAV: 99/1997

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 4:
KCHS: 79/2016
KSAV: 79/1931

July 5:
KCHS: 78/2017
KSAV: 78/2016

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$