North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

467
FXUS62 KCHS 012223
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
623 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Aviation section was updated for the 00z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Above normal temperatures will prevail across the region
  through the weekend and into next week. The next round of
  increased humidity and elevated heat indices will come this
  weekend into early next week, where Heat Advisories could be
  needed.

- 2) Summertime convection returns on Saturday, with chances
  persisting through the holiday weekend and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Above normal temperatures will prevail across
the region through the weekend and into next week. The next
round of increased humidity and elevated heat indices will come
this weekend into early next week, where Heat Advisories could
be needed.

Abnormally strong ridging aloft will remain the dominant synoptic
feature across the region through the weekend and into early next
week. At the surface, high pressure will extend into the region from
the north today and Thursday, before a more typical subtropical high
starts to take over this weekend. The position of the high for the
rest of the day and through Thursday will drive northeasterly flow
across the forecast area, which will bring seasonally below normal
dewpoints in the low to mid 60s for majority of the area each day.
Highs will still be in the low to mid 90s each day, but these low
dewpoints will keep heat indices from outpacing air temperatures by
much.

Ridging aloft begins to weaken into the weekend as the subtropical
high takes hold over the weekend, with dewpoints rising back into
the 70s. With temperatures similarly rising into the mid to upper
90s, heat indices this weekend and into next week could rise into
the 105-100 degree range for some areas, especially for those along
the coast. Therefore, the potential for Heat Advisories will
increase over the weekend and into early next week. Record high
temperatures and record high minimum temperatures will need to be
monitored, see the climate section below where the forecast is near
these records.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Summertime convection returns on Saturday, with
chances persisting through the holiday weekend and into next week.

As the aforementioned ridge begins to weaken as it continues
eastwards into the weekend, a weak surface trough will set up
along/near the coast from North Carolina through South Carolina and
into interior Georgia. Over the Atlantic, surface high pressure
develops, with easterly winds aloft beginning to bring low-mid level
moisture into the region on Saturday. Between the previously
mentioned surface trough and the expected afternoon sea breeze, the
return for daily scattered showers and thunderstorms is therefore
expected, primarily in the afternoon hours with storm coverage
waning into the evening. Latest guidance would suggest up to 20%
chance for showers/storms Saturday afternoon, primarily across
southeast Georgia, with higher moisture content arriving on Sunday
as we switch to southwesterly flow aloft raising pops into the 20-
40% range.

Given the heat and humidity, daily instability values will be
climbing into the 2-3 kJ/kg range, bringing chances for isolated
strong to severe thunderstorms. However, with the lack of shear,
organized convection is not expected with mostly cold-pool driven
storms to monitor. Given PWATs as high as 1.5-2.0", locally heavy
rainfall can also be expected.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
02/00z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 03/00z.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms may bring brief
flight restrictions starting Saturday and persisting into the
holiday weekend. Impacts are mostly likely each afternoon and
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Northeasterly winds will weaken overnight as they become more
easterly. Very weak low pressure off the Southeast Coast will yield
winds from the NE or E through Thursday, with a surface high
pressure slowly shifting toward the coast from the east-central
CONUS. As the low further weakens and dissipates into Thursday
night, winds will become southeasterly on Friday.

This weekend, surface high pressure will again build across the
Atlantic region and become the dominant feature. This will swing
winds around to become out of the southwest by early Saturday,
becoming south-southeasterly throughout the afternoon. Expect
similar conditions to unfold on Sunday, with winds expected to
remain largely below small craft criteria, with highest chances for
gusts into the mid 20s occurring behind the expected afternoon sea-
breezes on Sunday.

Rip Currents: The combination of gusty onshore winds, along with a 2
ft swell at 9 to 10 seconds will generate a Moderate Risk of rip
currents at our GA beaches for the rest of today.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

July 3:
KCHS: 98/2019

July 4:
KCHS: 98/2023
KSAV: 99/1997

July 6:
KCHS: 100/1990

July 7:
KCHS: 99/1954
KSAV: 101/1977

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 4:
KCHS: 79/2016
KSAV: 79/1931

July 5:
KCHS: 78/2017
KCXM: 82/2016
KSAV: 78/2016

July 6:
KCHS: 79/1990
KCXM: 82/2024
KSAV: 78/2024

July 7:
KCHS: 80/2017
KCXM: 82/2022
KSAV: 80/1883

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$