North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

124
FXUS62 KCHS 300641
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
241 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All section have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Above normal temperatures will prevail across the region
  through the the weekend and into early next week. The next
  round of increased humidity and elevated heat indices will
  come this weekend and Heat Advisories could be needed.

- 2) Summertime convection returns on Friday and is expected to
  persist through the holiday weekend and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Above normal temperatures will prevail across
the region through the the weekend and into early next week. The
next round of increased humidity and elevated heat indices will
come this weekend and Heat Advisories could be needed.

Aloft, prominent ridging will remain the primary feature
influencing the region through the rest of the week and the
upcoming weekend. This will support an environment of above
normal temperatures and widespread low to mid 90s through the
week. However, heat indices will likely be held down by below
normal dewpoints, especially Wednesday and Thursday. By the
weekend, the subtropical high at the surface will become more
deeply rooted which will drive a more common southwesterly
surface flow. This will yield dewpoints back into the 70s over
the weekend, coincident with high temperatures in the mid to
upper 90s. The end result will be elevated heat indices over the
weekend and into early next week along with a rising
probability of needing Heat Advisories for at least portions of
the forecast area.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Summertime convection returns on Friday and is
expected to persist through the holiday weekend and into next
week.

Strong ridging will be over the eastern half of the U.S. Friday
morning, with a roughly 595 dam 500 mb High located to our
north. This High should remain in place and gradually weaken
late Friday through the holiday weekend. Surface troughing will
strengthen over the Southeast U.S. Friday and persist through
the holiday weekend, while High pressure is in the western
Atlantic. This pattern will gradually usher more moisture into
our region. The combination of the weakening ridge, additional
moisture, along with instability from above normal high
temperatures will cause summertime convection to return on
Friday, and gradually increase through the holiday weekend. The
convective setup will vary somewhat each day, primarily due to
the mesoscale setup, and forcing from the sea breeze. But the
most likely times for convection will be each afternoon and
evening. Any storms will have the potential to be strong to
borderline severe, with the greatest threat being damaging
winds, along with having locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The 06z TAF period begins with VFR conditions at KCHS, KJZI,
and KSAV. Overall, VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all
3 sites through the entire TAF period though we will have to
watch for shower and thunderstorm development near KSAV this
afternoon. To account for this we have included a PROB30 group
from 19-22z. Otherwise, the forecast is mainly dealing with wind
direction changes from northeast flow in the morning to east-
southeast in the afternoon with the passage of the sea breeze.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms may bring
brief flight restrictions starting Friday and persisting into
the holiday weekend. Impacts are mostly likely each afternoon
and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and tonight: The local waters will be situated between an
area of low pressure to the east and high pressure inland. This
setup will drive northeast flow across the waters with enough
of a pinched gradient to support 15-20 knots of flow, and even a
few gusts up to 25 knots across portions of the SC nearshore
waters this afternoon and into the early evening. Winds will be
a bit more out of the east- northeast overnight, with speeds
around 15 knots. Seas will tick upward a bit, and average 2-4
feet for most of the period.

Extended Marine: Very weak Low pressure off the Southeast Coast
will yield winds from the NE or E through Thursday. As the Low
dissipates Thursday night, winds will become light and variable.
Then, they will clock around to the SE by Friday afternoon,
followed by the SW early on the 4th. Winds will then have a
typical summertime pattern for the holiday weekend. This will
consist of some backing during the day, with the highest winds
along the land/sea interface with the formation of the sea
breeze. Gusts could approach 20 kt, especially in Charleston
Harbor as the sea breeze moves through. At night, expect winds
to veer. Seas should stay 5 ft or less. No Small Craft
Advisories are expected.

Rip Currents: The combination of gusty NE winds and a 2 ft
swell at 9 or 10 seconds will generate a Moderate Risk of rip
currents at all of our beaches today, and a Moderate Risk at our
GA beaches on Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

July 4:
KCHS: 98/2023
KSAV: 99/1997

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 4:
KCHS: 79/2016
KSAV: 79/1931

July 5:
KCHS: 78/2017
KSAV: 78/2016

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$