North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

162
FXUS62 KCHS 151144
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
744 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Key Message 1 has been updated to reflect shower and thunderstorm
trends today. The Aviation Section has been updated for the 12Z
TAF issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Scattered showers/thunderstorms expected across the area
  today with isolated/minor flooding possible.

- 2) Minor coastal flooding possible during this evening`s high
  tide cycle along the South Carolina and Georgia coast.

- 3) Hot and humid conditions are expected to return to the area
  late this week through early next week. Heat Advisories could
  be needed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered showers/thunderstorms expected across
the area today with isolated/minor flooding possible.

Today and Tonight: A weak trough/coastal low positioned off the
Southeast Georgia Coast should slowly meander nearby this morning,
but gradually shift further offshore and/or dissipate this
afternoon. A few showers and thunderstorms could redevelop near and
just north of this feature across coastal waters, then shift
onshore this morning, but latest trends in model guidance suggest
the bulk of precip activity is more likely to start up early
afternoon in the vicinity of a sea breeze during peak heating
hours, mainly across the coastal corridor in Southern Southeast
South Carolina and Southeast Georgia. Activity could make
slightly more inland progress across Southeast Georgia depending
on the location of a weak/remnant boundary. Although convection
is not expected to be particularly strong today, gusty winds
and brief heavy downpours are possible in some locations. This
could pose a limited risk for flooding this afternoon, especially
if activity is slow moving and occurs across areas that have
experienced heavy rainfall during the past 24 hours.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Minor coastal flooding possible during this evening`s
high tide cycle along the South Carolina and Georgia coast.

While the highest astronomical tides have passed, a 6.46 ft MLLW
astro tide Wednesday evening in the Charleston Harbor brings another
chance for coastal flooding. Weak and variable surface winds will
likely keep tidal departures below 1 foot, resulting in total water
levels in 7.2-7.4 ft MLLW range, which will likely necessitate a
coastal flood advisory later this evening. At Fort Pulaski, an 8.37
ft MLLW astro tide with similar tidal departures below 1 foot
expected, will likely keep total water levels below minor coastal
flood criteria. If heavy rainfall were to occur near or during the
time of the evening high tide cycles, flooding concerns would
increase as total water levels would similarly increase, which looks
most likely for southeast Georgia given the higher coverage of
showers and thunderstorms expected this evening.

In the absence of strong tidal departures on Thursday, coastal
flood issues are not anticipated.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Hot and humid conditions are expected to return to
the area late this week through early next week. Heat Advisories
could be needed.

Temperatures will be increasing Thursday as strong ridging builds
aloft, with hot and humid conditions expected to remain across the
region into next week. Thursday will see temperatures in the lower
to mid 90s, and with dewpoints remaining in the lower to upper 70s
(highest along the coast), widespread heat index values of 100+
return to the region. Areas along the coast may breach the 108 deg F
mark for a few hours, bringing the potential for Heat Advisories.
Expect a marginally warmer day for Friday as high temperatures in
the mid 90s expand, with another round of heat advisories possible
as heat index values peak in the 105-110 degree range along the
coast.

While an upper level trough moves towards the area on Saturday
before moving through on Sunday, the associated surface low pressure
will remain well north of the region, with hot and humid conditions
continuing across the region. Heat index values of 105-110 degrees
will be possible along the coast each afternoon, and Heat Advisories
could be needed. As for rain chances, typical summertime isolated to
scattered showers are possible along the afternoon sea breeze
dissipating into the evening hours.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions should prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through
morning hours. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase during
the afternoon with TEMPO groups between 18-21Z at CHS/JZI terminals
and 18-22Z at the SAV terminal. TEMPO flight restrictions due to
linger showers/thunderstorms are possible at SAV and could need to
be extended 1-2 hours in future TAF issuances/amendments. VFR
conditions should then prevail at all terminals between 00-12Z
Thursday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Typical summertime pattern will result in
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms, resulting in isolated
risks of lowered cigs and vsbys Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: A weak front/boundary will remain in the vicinity into the
middle of the week, which will continue chances for scattered
showers and thunderstorms throughout the period. Surface flow will
be variable as a result of the front. In general, strong
thunderstorms are not expected, though an isolated strong
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

Thursday - Friday: South-southwesterly surface flow is expected to
develop on Thursday and continue into Friday as a subtropical high
develops, with winds and seas expected to remain below Small Craft
Advisory criteria.

Saturday - Sunday: Over the weekend, the surface pressure gradient
is expected to strengthen between an inland trough and the
aforementioned high to the east. This will produce stronger
southwest to south flow, with speeds getting more into the 15-20
knot range and an increasing chance of gusts up to 25 knots, mainly
for the SC coast and Charleston Harbor. We could even need some
short duration Small Craft Advisories over the weekend.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$