North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS62 KCHS 260658
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
258 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1)Unsettled weather is expected from Wednesday into the
  weekend, with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms and
  the potential for locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Unsettled weather is expected from Wednesday
into the weekend, with daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms and the potential for locally heavy rainfall.

Today: Our soggy end to the week has arrived as a rather wet and
unsettled pattern begins today. Broad upper troughing continues
to be firmly planted over the Great Lakes extending down towards
the Tennessee valley today as a subtle shortwave lifts across
the deep south. Broad southwesterly flow remains in place as
PWATS continue to range in the 2.0 to 2.1 inch range. We will
likely see a rather early start to showers and storms this
afternoon compared to earlier in the week as the seabreeze moves
inland and the upper shortwave provides enough kick to get
things started early. Best chances for showers and thunderstorms
will mainly be along and east of I-95 during the mid to late
afternoon and like most summer days, a couple storms could get
strong to severe as they cluster up. However, conditions are not
quite as favorable for strong to severe storms as compared the
last few and things look to be more towards a heavy rainfall
threat. With PWATS greater than 2 inches and deep moist
profiles, warm rain processes will be prevalent with these
storms resulting in rather heavy rain rates. While storms may
not linger over an area for too long, they will be able to put
down 1 to 2 quick inches of rainfall if they do last longer than
a half hour or so. If this were to happen over poor drainage
areas around the metro then some minor flooding would be
expected. As a result a good portion of the area is under a
Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for excessive rainfall. Storms
should subside by the early evening with significantly soggier
days coming later in the week.


Thursday through the Weekend: Upper level trough deepens across
the Ohio River Valley Thursday, as a stationary front remains
at the sfc. As noted in days past, will then see a pronounced
cold front begin its journey southeastward across the Tennessee
River Valley Friday, before stalling out across our area this
weekend. Given all the boundaries in place, there will certainly
be enough lift to work with, on top of PWATs near 2 inches,
which is well above normal for this time of year. This combined
with regional and mesoscale processes is expected to yield daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms - especially in the
afternoon and evenings. While most guidance generally agrees
that coverage should remain scattered to numerous, overall
confidence in exact timing and location still remain rather low.
Thus, further refinements to the forecast are expected in the
coming shifts as model consistency improves.

In regard to severe weather, can`t rule out seeing a few isolated
storms becoming strong to severe, and producing damaging winds and
frequent lightning. However, think the main hazard to watch for in
the coming days will be heavy rainfall - given the potential for
slow moving, training, or back building storms. If these setups were
to occur, could easily see locally high rainfall totals occur in a
short period of time, increasing the potential for localized
flooding or flash flooding, particularly in urban and low-lying
areas.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Isolated thunderstorms have developed this morning in the
vicinity of JZI/CHS. These showers and thunderstorms should move
through the area over the next hour or so and could result in
localized restrictions to MVFR or IFR. Elsewhere VFR conditions
should prevail through the morning and into the afternoon.
Scattered showers and storms should develop along the seabreeze
around 17-18Z and possibly impact the TAF sites over the next
few hours. Winds will be light out of the south.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms will continue through the weekend, with storms
potentially producing temporary flight restrictions, reduced
visibility, gusty winds, and brief periods of heavier rainfall each
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: Winds will turn southerly by the morning and persist
throughout the day around 10 knots becoming southwesterly at
around 10 to 15 knots overnight. Seas will remain around 2 to 3
feet. Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to
develop overnight tonight across the marine waters. These storms
will be capable of producing frequent lighting, gusty winds and
increased seas.


Thursday through Sunday: South/southwesterly winds continue through
the period, with winds averaging 15 knots or less and seas 2 to 3
feet. While Small Craft Advisories are not expected at this time, do
want to highlight that any showers or thunderstorms moving over the
waters will be capable of producing higher gusts and frequent
lightning..

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Black/SST