North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

188
FXUS62 KCHS 161828
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
228 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for Charleston and
Coastal Colleton Counties for this evening`s 11 PM high tide.
The Aviation Section was updated to reflect the 18Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Hot and humid conditions will linger through the remainder
  of this afternoon, returning again tomorrow and persisting
  through early next week. Heat Advisories could be needed.

- 2) A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for Charleston and
  Coastal Colleton Counties for minor flooding with this
  evening`s high tide.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Hot and humid conditions will linger through the
remainder of this afternoon, returning again tomorrow and
persisting through early next week. Heat Advisories could be
needed.

Rest of Today: Weak ridging aloft and at the surface will
dominate the synoptic pattern through the remainder of today.
Temperatures have reached into the low to mid 90s with heat
index values topping out around 99-103 across the region.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop, with
boundary interactions being the main driving force. With a PWAT
of 1.9" with this morning`s 12Z KCHS RAOB Sounding heavy
rainfall is a threat for this afternoon. The CAMs today are not
overly impressive with the coverage of showers/storms, mainly in
the isolated to scattered category. DCAPE values are only
around 500 J/kg according to SPC mesoanalysis.

Sfc high pressure will become more established across the
western Atlantic heading into this weekend, favoring a
southwest/south flow that brings slightly higher dewpts across
the local area. The combination of temps in the mid-upper 90s
along with elevated dewpts will yield widespread heat index
values above 100 degrees across Southeast South Carolina and
Southeast Georgia, and likely a swath of 108-112 heat index
values for areas along and east of the I-95 corridor this
weekend. At this juncture conditions on Friday afternoon appear
too marginal for a Heat Advisory, however this will be
reevaluated with the next forecast update. Next week looks to
be warm and humid as well with conditions approaching Heat
Advisory level conditions each day, but convective coverage
could be more numerous with an inland trough nearby Sunday into
Monday, followed by the approach of a front from the northwest
heading to the middle of next week.


KEY MESSAGE 2: A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for
Charleston and Coastal Colleton Counties for minor flooding
with this evening`s high tide.

The astronomical tide at the Charleston Harbor this evening will
be 6.2 ft MLLW. While this value is lower than the previous
nights which saw coastal flooding, guidance is showing that
departure values could approach 0.8 ft which would yield a tide
value right around 7.0 ft MLLW (minor coastal flooding). A
Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for Charleston and
Coastal Colleton Counties for this evening`s high tide, with the
tide forecast to reach 6.9 to 7.1 ft MLLW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS/KJZI through the 18Z TAF
period. Isolated showers/tstorms could impact KSAV this
afternoon, as denoted by the TEMPO group from 18 to 20Z. VFR
thereafter.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Mostly VFR. Low chances of direct impacts
from afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Today - Friday: South-southwesterly surface flow will continue
this afternoon and continue into Friday as a subtropical high
develops, with winds and seas expected to remain below Small
Craft Advisory criteria.

Saturday - Sunday: Over the weekend, the surface pressure gradient
is expected to strengthen between an inland trough and the
aforementioned high to the east. This will produce stronger
southwest to south flow, with speeds getting more into the 15-20
knot range and an increasing chance of gusts up to 25 knots, mainly
for the SC coast and Charleston Harbor. We could even need some
short duration Small Craft Advisories over the weekend. 3 feet waves
are expected to develop along the coast, with 5 to 6 foot waves in
our outer offshore zones (highest in the zones 20-60nm out from
South Santee, SC to Savannah, GA).

Monday: The previously mentioned inland trough is expected to move
into the coastal corridor, continuing elevated winds with potential
for additional Small Craft Advisories. There is a low chance (20%)
for a low pressure system to develop/move into the region, which
would bring additional wind and wave concerns.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Friday for SCZ149-150.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$