North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

958
FXUS62 KCHS 081131
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
731 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated the Marine section to address the waterspout potential
this morning. In addition, the Aviation section was updated for
the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) There is the potential for localized excessive rainfall
  today across the forecast area, especially along the coastal
  counties this morning.

- 2) The typical summertime pattern will continue this weekend
  into next week. The threat for isolated strong to severe
  thunderstorms and localized heavy rainfall will exist each
  day, with heat concerns returning for those along the coast.

- 3) Minor coastal flooding possible along the South
  Carolina coast with evening high tide cycles next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: There is the potential for localized excessive
rainfall today across the forecast area, especially along the
coastal counties this morning.

Sfc high pressure will remain centered near Bermuda today. Near term
guidance indicates that a inverted trough will rotate on the west
side of the high, pushing onshore along the GA/SC coast this
morning. Recent runs of the HRRR, HREF, and RRFS indicate that
showers and embedded thunderstorms will increase in coverage as the
trough crosses the Gulf Stream this morning. The convection will
push west, reaching onshore across the Savannah River during the pre-
dawn hours. Coverage of convection may increase along the SC coast
during the daylight morning hours. These showers and thunderstorms
should develop within an environment featuring PW values between 2-
2.3" and MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. The combination of deep moisture
and adequate instability may lead to areas of heavy rainfall over
the coastal counties. HREF probability of 1"/3hr peaks around 80%
near Savannah, with broad 30% across the coastal counties for
3"/3hrs. WPC has highlighted the area with a slight risk for
excessive rainfall for today. Given the HREF rainfall probabilities,
some coastal areas between Liberty to coastal Colleton, may see
totals exceed 3". If the rainfall occurs over one of the coastal
cities, including Savannah, Beaufort, and Charleston, then Flood
Advisories or Flash Flood Warnings could be needed.

KEY MESSAGE 2: The typical summertime pattern will continue this
weekend into next week. The threat for isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms and localized heavy rainfall will exist each day, with
heat concerns returning for those along the coast.

As the pattern with deep high pressure over the western Atlantic and
Eastern Seaboard continues, daily scattered convection chances will
remain possible. While most of this activity will be diurnally
driven by the afternoon sea-breeze, scattered morning showers and
thunderstorms can`t be ruled out but will be dependent on how the
overnight convection progresses. PWATs are expected to remain in the
1.75-2.0 inch range, and given slow storm motions locally heavy
rainfall will be possible each day into the middle of the week.
While 1500-2500 J/kg of CAPE will develop by the afternoon hours,
the weak flow aloft will result in 0-6 km bulk shear values
remaining near 10 knots, suggesting pulse-like storms rather than
organized convection. Given the high water loading potential and
~500 J/kg of DCAPE, strong wind gusts would be the primary risk with
any stronger thunderstorms. As a weak trough begins to enter our
western areas Wednesday, surface flow becomes a bit more westerly
which should keep the sea breeze pinned closer to the coast,
limiting spatial coverage of showers and thunderstorms.

As for temperatures, Sunday and Monday will likely see high
temperatures in the lower to mid 90s, with mid 90s looking to become
more widespread by Tuesday and continuing into the end of the week
as the aforementioned trough slowly shifts eastwards. Inland areas
will likely see enough surface mixing to limit dew points to the mid
70s, while those along the coast will likely see dew points linger
in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Combined with temperatures in the mid
90s, will likely see some heat index values in the 105-110 range
along the coast on Monday, with similar heat index values Tuesday
through Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Minor coastal flooding possible along the South
Carolina coast with evening high tide cycles next week.

Perigean new moon will bring elevated tidal ranges next week. Even
modest tidal departures during the evening high tide cycles Monday
through Thursday would bring tidal levels approaching or exceeding
minor coastal flooding thresholds, though the forecast currently has
south-southwesterly winds next week which would keep tidal
departures low. Continue to monitor forecast updates through the
weekend as the total water level forecast gets refined.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z TAFs: A coastal trough will drift onshore along the GA/SC
coast this morning. This trough should result in rounds of
showers and thunderstorms across the terminals this morning,
highlighted with TEMPOs from 12-17Z. Once the trough passes,
winds will turn from the SSE and increase to around 10 kts, with
convection pushing inland on an early sea breeze. The mid to
late afternoon hours should see decreasing PoPs for convection.
However, KJZI could see showers with a VCTS into the mid
afternoon. This evening is expected to feature decreasing winds
and dry conditions.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Periodic flight restrictions are expected
in showers and thunderstorms through early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
This morning: Conditions will once again be favorable for the
development of waterspouts across the nearshore and offshore
waters of Southeast South Carolina and Southeast Georgia,
including the Charleston Harbor, this morning. The waterspout
risk will be highest near lines of towering clouds and in the
vicinity of showers and thunderstorms. Conditions will become
less favorable for waterspout development by late this morning
as the sea breeze begins to form along the beaches.

Today: Sfc high pressure will remain centered near Bermuda today.
Near term guidance indicates that a inverted trough will rotate on
the west side of the high, pushing onshore along the GA/SC coast
this morning. This feature should support numerous showers and
thunderstorms across the marine zones today. Some storms may produce
localized wind gusts in excess of 34 kts this morning. Otherwise,
the pattern will support southeast wind around 10 kts and wave
heights between 3 to 4 ft.

Sunday through Wednesday: Atlantic high pressure will be the
dominant synoptic feature Sunday into next week. Light to moderate
winds prevail on Sunday and Monday, though gusty winds are expected
along the land/sea interface each afternoon associated with the sea
breeze. Nocturnal jetting looks to remain possible Monday night
through Thursday night as a weak surface trough moves eastwards over
land, with the persistent strong high pressure offshore and very
warm waters. Small Craft Advisories currently look unlikely, but
something to monitor.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

APT/NED