North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

085
FXUS62 KCHS 292356
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
756 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Aviation section has been updated for the 00z TAF issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Minor coastal flooding is expected along portions of the
  South Carolina coast through Saturday.

- 2) Continued risk for rip currents through the weekend.

- 3) Quiet conditions through Saturday with somewhat unsettled
  and breezy conditions Sunday into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Minor coastal flooding is expected along
portions of the South Carolina coast through Saturday.

Astronomical tides will continue to trend lower the rest of
this week as we get further away from the Full Moon and perigee.
Decent tidal anomalies will stay in place the rest of this week
due to persistent and elevated northeast winds. The Friday and
Saturday afternoon high tides are forecasted to reach minor
coastal flooding thresholds at the Charleston Tide Gauge.
Therefore, Coastal Flood Advisories will be needed. The coastal
flooding threat should finally end early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Continued risk for rip currents through the
weekend.

Ongoing elevated winds, seas and tides will support a high risk
for rip currents along the Georgia beaches for Friday. Sightly
weaker winds across the Lowcountry beaches will support a
moderate risk. Increasing northeast winds and building seas will
yield a high risk for all beaches for Saturday. The rip current
MOS guidance was a bit marginal for a high risk along the
Charleston County beaches, but given gusty northeast winds
typically produce rip currents and a nasty longshore current
during a weekend, a high risk was favored over a moderate.

Reminder: The local rip current program will end Saturday,
October 31 with the afternoon Surf Zone Forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Quiet conditions through Saturday with somewhat
unsettled and breezy conditions Sunday into Monday.

Friday and Saturday: Mostly quiet conditions will prevail as
high pressure lingers across the area. An isolated shower to two
could move inland along the Georgia coast Saturday into
Saturday night where weak isentropic ascent and some 850 hPa
theta-e pooling are noted. Highs will warm into the lower 80s
away from the beaches Friday, but cool to the mid-upper 70s
Saturday with increased cloud cover and stronger northeast low-
level flow. Breezy conditions are likely at the beaches Saturday
afternoon through Saturday night.

Sunday and Monday: The pattern will become somewhat unsettled
Sunday and possibly lingering into Monday as a modest southern
stream shortwave propagates across the Southeast U.S. and Deep
South. Similar to yesterday, there remains considerable
uncertainty on how strong this shortwave and any surface
reflection will be. The operational GFS is still pretty wet
(although drier than yesterday) and looks to be suffering from
convective feedback based on how the QPF fields appear, but even
its model cross-sections are not showing much in the way of
significant deep-layered UVVs associated with the shortwave
itself. The drier EC solutions have exhibited the most stable
run-to-run consistency over the past few days and that trend was
generally favored. Interestingly, the 29/13z NBM cut back
significantly on QPF and rain chances from its previous 29/01z
run. While the drier trend is supported, even this much drier
solution may be too aggressive based on the ensembles. Bottom
line, the forecast remains fluid and is open to further
adjustments as the weekend gets closer. It will remain breezy at
the beaches with gusts as high as 30-35 mph possible.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Overall, VFR conditions are expected to mostly prevail at KCHS,
KJZI, and KSAV through 00z Saturday. There are concerns for
another round of pre-dawn stratus development, mainly at KCHS
and KJZI. We have included a TEMPO group for a few hours, ending
by around 13z. Thereafter, VFR will quickly return and prevail.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Gusty northeast winds are possible
this weekend into Monday with an increased risk for rain impacts
Sunday into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: High pressure inland will maintain elevated northeast
winds. Though, winds should be the strongest through the
evening, then ease somewhat overnight. Likewise, seas will
gradually subside. We expect the Small Craft Advisories for the
SC waters within 20 nm to end tonight. However, seas should
remain high enough (6+ ft) to keep the Small Craft Advisories
going for our GA waters.

Friday through Tuesday: Conditions will improve markedly on
Friday as the pressure gradient relaxes, bringing an end to the
prolonged Small Craft Advisories for the nearshore waters.
However, improvement will be short-lived. Restrengthening of the
inland wedge to the north this weekend and then the development
of a weak coastal trough afterwards will drive northeast gusts
back up to 25-30 kt and building seas above 6 ft. Another round
of Small Craft Advisories for the nearshore waters could be
needed Saturday afternoon potentially into Tuesday. A Small
Craft Advisory for the Georgia offshore waters will likely
continue through the entire period as 6 ft seas or greater will
remain.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Friday evening for GAZ217-219-
     239-241.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ360-362.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Friday for AMZ364.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ384.

&&

$$