North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

337
FXUS62 KCHS 081812
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
212 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across
  portions of southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina
  each day through the remainder of the week.

- 2) Coastal flooding will impact much of the southeast Georgia
  and southeast South Carolina coast this week. Tide levels
  will likely peak today and Wednesday.

- 3) There is a High Risk of rip currents along the entire
  coastline today and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across
portions of southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina each day
through the remainder of the week.

Surface high pressure will dominate over the Mid-Atlantic states
with low pressure off the Atlantic coast of Florida. The local
forecast are will remain sandwiched between these two features
through tonight, yielding a northeasterly flow at the surface. With
this flow pattern showers over the adjacent Atlantic waters will be
funneled towards the coastline through the remainder of the
afternoon. Showers and storms are forecast to be progressive,
limiting the heavy rainfall threat. However, some pockets of 1 to
maybe 2 inches will be possible with any stronger shower. So far
this afternoon there has been no thunder with any showers, however
with ML CAPE values around 500-1000 J/kg according to SPC
mesoanalysis thunder remains a possibility. After waning with
nightfall, additional shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast
to again develop early Wednesday morning across the coastal waters,
making a run for the coastline by daybreak.

Wednesday through Sunday: Aloft, high pressure extending across the
Southeast United States through Thursday will gradually retreat off
the Atlantic Coast with the approach of h5 shortwave energy this
weekend. At the sfc, high pressure centered off the Mid-Atlantic
Coast will linger across the Carolinas and Georgia mid-week, while
weak coastal troughing slides onshore locally Wednesday into
possibly early Thursday, well ahead of a front that likely stalls
just north of the area this weekend.

The coastal trough will initially favor scattered to numerous
showers/thunderstorms Wednesday, with the bulk of activity occurring
across Southeast Georgia and far southern Southeast South Carolina,
followed by precip activity running along the I-95 corridor in a
more traditional summertime setup on Thursday as weaker low-lvl flow
gradually turns more southerly and increases moisture (PWATS 2+
inches) in the vicinity. Shear is rather weak, especially Thursday,
but a few stronger thunderstorms remain possible each afternoon
given ample instability across the region. By Friday, a notable
uptick in h5 vort energy rounding the western periphery of the
Atlantic ridge arrives from the south, likely increasing
shower/thunderstorm coverage and potentially a risk for localized
heavy rainfall and/or minor flooding issues through this weekend.
WPC has highlighted the region in a Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall in the Day 4 (Friday) and Day 5 (Saturday) outlooks.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Coastal flooding will impact much of the
southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina coast this week.
Tide levels will likely peak today and Wednesday.

Astronomical tide levels will peak during the evening high tide
cycle today through Thursday due to the recent lunar perigee
(9/6) and the upcoming new moon (9/11). These factors along with
the ongoing strong northeast flow event, will combined to
produce elevated tide levels and coastal flooding for much of
the coast.

Charleston Harbor: Astronomical tides will be right around 6.5
ft MLLW each evening through Thursday. The ongoing northeast
flow event has already pushed tidal departures well in excess of
1 ft, and the northeast flow will peak through the day today.
For the upcoming evening high tide (~7 pm), there is increasing
confidence in moderate coastal flooding (7.5 ft MLLW or higher).
Current model guidance suggests that the evening high tide will
peak around 7.6-7.8 ft MLLW with even some support for
approaching as high as 7.9 ft MLLW. A Coastal Flood Advisory is
in effect for Charleston and coastal Colleton counties. For the
Wednesday evening high tide, winds will remain out of a
conducive direction (ENE) though wind speeds will come down a
bit. This should still be enough to maintain large tidal
departures and moderate coastal flooding is possible, if not
likely. For Thursday, winds will turn more southerly and weaken
considerably. Minor coastal flooding remains quite certain,
though the potential for moderate coastal flooding will
diminish. Then for Friday and into the weekend, we will see the
morning high tide cycle become the higher tide of the day with
astronomical values around 6.3 ft. Winds will be more south to
southwesterly which will bring departures down and make the
occurrence of minor flooding less certain.

Fort Pulaski: The best chance to reach the minor coastal flood
threshold (9.5 ft MLLW) will likely come with the upcoming
evening high tide (~7 pm). Current departures and model guidance
suggest that the tide will peak around 9.6-9.8 ft MLLW and a
Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for Beaufort County south
including the entire southeast GA coast. Wednesday also looks
like a good candidate for minor coastal flooding as winds remain
supportive of large tidal departures. Another advisory could be
needed. Thereafter, the coastal flooding potential will
diminish as winds diminish and become less favorable.


KEY MESSAGE 3: There is a High Risk of rip currents along the
entire coastline today and Wednesday.

Breezy northeasterly flow combined with an easterly swell will
continue to support a High Risk for rip currents along all Southeast
South Carolina and Southeast Georgia beaches through Wednesday. By
Thursday, the flow is expected to turn east-southeast and weaken
considerably while swell also decreases. However, the setup still
calls for some enhanced rip current risk early Thursday before
conditions further improve. A Moderate Risk of rip currents is in
place along Georgia beaches on Thursday as a result, and could be
needed along South Carolina beaches if stronger winds and
larger swell linger longer than currently anticipated.

If you are caught in a rip current, stay calm, do not fight the
current, and swim parallel to the shoreline to escape it.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers will continue to stream inland from the adjacent Atlantic
waters through the remainder of the afternoon, especially at KSAV.
Some brief moments of MVFR cigs are possible, however impacts are
expected to be so limited no restrictive cigs have been included in
the 18Z TAFs. KCHS and KJZI could see shower activity again early
Wednesday morning, with a PROB30 introduced with the 18Z TAFs.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible with
scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms at CHS/JZI/SAV
terminals, mainly during afternoon hours each day through the end of
the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight: Northeast flow will dominate across the marine
waters today as the region remains within a pinched pressure
gradient with high pressure to the north and low pressure to the
south. Gusts as high as 25 knots across all marine waters and the
Charleston Harbor will be common this afternoon. A Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect for these waters. The SCA in the
Charleston Harbor will expire at 00Z this evening, with the
remainder of the SCAs expiring Wednesday morning.

Wednesday through Saturday: Moderate easterly flow (15-20 kt) on
Wednesday will gradually turn more south-southeast and weaken
through Wednesday night following a coastal trough shifting onshore.
Wind gusts should then remain at or below 15 kt across local waters
through late week well ahead of a front stalling north of the area
this weekend. Seas will also subside mid-week, likely to below 6 ft
Wednesday afternoon, then should continue to subside to 1-3 ft
during a weak high pressure pattern through late week.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ217-
     219-239-241.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for GAZ217-
     219-239-241.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     SCZ148>151.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for
     SCZ148>151.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ340.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ360-362-
     364.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ384.

&&

$$

CPM/DPB