North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

327
FXUS62 KCHS 111900
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
200 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Warm and breezy Thursday ahead of an evening cold front.

- 2) Frost/freeze conditions are possible Friday night through
  Sunday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Warm and breezy Thursday ahead of an evening
cold front.

Thursday will feature warm and breezy conditions ahead of an
approaching cold front, with highs topping out in the mid-upper
70s and southwest gusts reaching 25-30 mph during the afternoon.
Low and mid levels remain too dry to support rainfall,
resulting in a dry frontal passage during the afternoon and
evening hours. Strong cold air advection will develop quickly
in wake of the front overnight, driving temperatures down into
the low to mid 40s inland to around 50 degrees along the coast
by early Friday morning.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Frost/freeze conditions are possible Friday night
through Sunday night.

Cold air will continue to funnel down into the region in the
wake of the front, bringing our first potential frost of the
season Friday night into Saturday morning. Low temperatures
across portions of interior southeast South Carolina and
southeast Georgia are expected to dip down into the mid 30s. The
combination of light winds could result in patchy frost
formation. The greatest chances for frost will be Saturday
night into Sunday morning. Areas west of I-95 in southeast
Georgia and along/west of I-95 in the Lowcountry have a chance
of reaching freezing temperatures (32 degrees). With the
combination of light to calm winds, frost formation seems more
probable in these locations. Another chance for frost/freeze
returns Monday morning as lows in the mid 30s persist.


Nov 11 13z NBM 10km neighborhood probabilities for emergency
management warming shelter planning:

Friday Night/Saturday Morning:
                              Inland Areas    Coastal Corridor
Temps 35 degrees or colder:      30-60%             <5%
Temps 32 degrees or colder:       5-20%             <5%
Temps 30 degrees or colder:         <5%             <5%

Saturday Night/Sunday Morning:
                              Inland Areas    Coastal Corridor
Temps 35 degrees or colder:      70-90%           10-30%
Temps 32 degrees or colder:      30-60%             <5%
Temps 30 degrees or colder:      10-30%             <5%

Sunday Night/Monday Morning:
                              Inland Areas    Coastal Corridor
Temps 35 degrees or colder:      40-70%          10-30%
Temps 32 degrees or colder:      10-30%           5-10%
Temps 30 degrees or colder:      10-20%             <5%

Frost Advisories, Freeze Watches and Freeze Warnings may
eventually be needed, especially for areas roughly inland of
US-17 in the Lowcountry and I-95 in Southeast Georgia.

Detailed information on first freeze dates for the area can be
found online at:
https://www.weather.gov/media/chs/climate/AverageFirstLastFreezeDates.pdf

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals
through 18Z Thursday. A brief, light shower or two could move
through later this afternoon/early evening but impacts should be
minimal, so this potential was not included in the TAF. Otherwise,
gusty winds are expected to develop Thursday morning and afternoon.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Southwesterly winds will be
strengthening throughout the day on Thursday, producing gusts up
to near 25 knots. A cold front will move through Thursday
evening, shifting winds out of the west-northwest.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: High pressure will dominate the weather pattern
through tonight, but the pressure gradient is anticipated to
strengthen well in advance of large-scale trough and associated
cold front overnight. Southwest winds will gradually increase
to 15-20 kt tonight with gusts remaining shy of 25 kt for most
local waters, with an exception for the outer Georgia waters
(20-60nm). A Small Craft Advisory has been issued beginning
after midnight for 25 kt gusts.

Thursday into Sunday: Winds will continue to increase out of
the southwest Thursday morning ahead of the front, becoming
gusty by late morning. Likewise, wind-driven seas will build,
with 6 foot seas likely limited to the offshore (20-60nm) zones.
Additional Small Craft Advisories have been issued Thursday for
the nearshore SC waters (from 0-20 nm) and the remaining GA
waters from 0-20 nm. Winds shifts to become out of the west-
northwest overnight into Friday, with a brief period of
weakening winds during the morning/afternoon, before wind gusts
pick up again overnight to near 25 knots. This looks to
primarily impact the waters 20-60nm offshore from Edisto Beach,
SC to Altamaha Sound, GA, with weaker winds elsewhere. Winds
decrease Saturday as surface high pressure builds in, remaining
in the 10 to 15 knot range with gusts to 20 knots at times into
Sunday.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

BRS/ETM