North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

983
FXUS62 KCHS 081200
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated key message 1 to remove coastal flooding this morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) The risk for coastal flooding continues into the end of
  the week, primarily for Charleston and coastal Colleton
  counties.

- 2) Hurricane Isaias is expected to track across the central
  Gulf today, before approaching the northern Gulf Coast on
  Friday. Although the center of the storm will remain well west
  of the region, heavy rainfall is likely across Southeast
  Georgia and the South Carolina Lowcountry this weekend. Flash
  and urban flooding along with coastal flooding is possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: The risk for coastal flooding continues into the end
of the week, primarily for Charleston and coastal Colleton counties.

As the region remains between a surface high pressure to our north
and a stationary front to our south, the gusty northeasterly winds
persist, primarily over the coastal waters. Together with the
elevated astronomical high tides, minor coastal flooding remains
possible with each high tide along the Charleston and coastal
Colleton counties through Thursday, potentially continuing into
Friday.

Thursday evening and Friday morning will continue to see
elevated high astronomical tides at 6.25 ft and 6.43 ft MLLW
respectively, continuing chances for minor coastal flooding.

Friday evening will bring another chance for minor coastal flooding
for Charleston and coastal Colleton as elevated high tides persist,
though the weather setup becomes more complex. Rainfall chances will
increase Friday afternoon as a tropical plume of moisture lifts
northwards amidst positive vorticity advection, though there will be
a bit of dry air in the low-level to saturate before rainfall
reaches the surface, so if rain starts to accumulate prior to high
tide the area will be more prone to coastal flooding. In addition,
as surface high pressure continues to our north, the track of
Hurricane Isaias to our west as it moves north will increase the
surface pressure gradient across the region. How quickly the
northeast wind strengthens as the system move north will further
influence the potential for coastal flooding.

Rip Currents: Increasingly gusty northeasterly winds combined with
increasing wave heights will create a High Risk of rip currents
along the southeast Georgia beaches on Friday, with a Moderate Risk
of rip currents along beaches from Edisto, SC to Savannah, GA.
Expect High Risk of rip currents across all area beaches on
Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Hurricane Isaias is expected to track across the
central Gulf today, before approaching the northern Gulf Coast on
Friday. Although the center of the storm will remain well west of
the region, heavy rainfall is likely across Southeast Georgia and
the South Carolina Lowcountry this weekend. Flash and urban flooding
along with coastal flooding is possible.

NHC expects Hurricane Isaias to track across the central Gulf today,
before approaching the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Guidance
continues to support a deep plume of tropical moisture drawn
northward across the Deep South and Southeast United States as this
process unfolds into Friday, with PWATs likely reaching 2.0-2.25
inches across the region by Friday night. Deep tropical moisture is
then likely to peak across the local area Saturday into early Sunday
(PWATs 2.25 to 2.5 inches), prior to a cold front arriving with
drier air by Sunday evening.

Deep tropical moisture will set the stage for heavy rainfall locally
this weekend as widespread isentropic lift occurs between a wedge of
high pressure across the Carolinas/Georgia and a weak front/coastal
trough starting Friday night. Widespread showers and embedded
thunderstorms are possible Saturday into Sunday as the setup remains
quite favorable for deep moisture transport feeding across the
Southeast United States between a mid-lvl pattern featuring a closed
low over the lower Mississippi River Valley and a ridge centered
across the western Atlantic. For the weekend, total rainfall amounts
are generally anticipated to range between 2-4 inches across
Southeast Georgia and inland Southeast South Carolina, with higher
amounts in the 4-6 inch range across Southeast South Carolina
coastal counties. Given the setup, there is a risk for flash and
urban flooding locally, with the main period of concern occurring
Saturday and Saturday night as PWATs approach ~2.5 inches and rounds
of precip occur across already saturated grounds. A Flood Watch
could eventually be needed Saturday. The latest WPC Excessive
Rainfall Outlook places Southeast South Carolina and Southeast
Georgia in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall Friday and a
Slight Risk for excessive rainfall on Saturday. Additional rains are
possible heading through Sunday, but will be highly dependent on the
speed of a h5 shortwave and sfc cold front arriving from the west to
start off next week.

In addition to heavy rainfall potential this weekend, New Moon high
tides with elevated astronomical tides will occur this weekend. Any
elevated rainfall rates during high tides may lead to flooding of
coastal areas, including Savannah and Charleston. Latest guidance
indicates minor/moderate saltwater flooding during high tide cycles
as well this weekend, mainly for Charleston and Coastal Colleton
Counties. However, minor coastal flooding is also possible during
the Saturday morning high tide across coastal counties south into
Southeast Georgia.

Breezy conditions will also likely develop across Southeast Georgia
Friday night into Saturday as the inland wedge begins to erode. Wind
gusts upwards to 25-30 mph are possible across much of the local
area with slightly higher gusts up to 35-40 mph across coastal
counties near the beaches and/or on elevated bridges.

Tornado Threat: Latest guidance continues to support an increase in
0-3km SRH (~250 m2/s2) and SBCAPE (~1000 J/kg) locally as the high
pressure wedge erodes during daylight hours Saturday. Forecast
soundings indicate veering wind profiles at the time with a slightly
backing easterly sfc wind, perhaps along a weak front shifting
through the local area while Isaias tracks north across the Deep
South. This environment could support brief and fast-moving
tornadoes and/or waterspouts Saturday afternoon/evening. SPC has
placed Southeast South Carolina and Southeast Georgia in a Marginal
Risk for severe weather on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 12Z
Friday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR through Friday morning. Flight
restrictions are likely at all terminals Friday night through Sunday
with widespread showers and/or thunderstorms, some capable of heavy
downpours and gusty winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: Between surface high pressure to our north and a stationary
front to our south, breezy northeasterly winds will persist today.
They will however be much weaker than recent, sustained in the 10-15
knot range with occasional gusts to 20 knots. Seas across the region
are already reporting wave heights of 4 to 5 feet, so the two
remaining Small Craft Advisories have been allowed to expire.

Friday: See NHC forecast for the latest on Hurricane Isaias. For our
region, the pressure gradient will increase between a high pressure
to our north and the Hurricane to our southwest as it travels
northwards. This is expected to strengthen the northeast winds
Friday morning into the afternoon hours, with wave heights building
as well. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for all waters
as early as Friday afternoon across all near and offshore zones,
though the Charleston Harbor may not see the breezy winds until
overnight into Saturday.

Saturday: As Isaias moves northwards on Saturday, still expected to
remain well west of the area in Alabama per NHC`s latest forecast,
the pressure gradient strengthens leading to a period where gale-
force winds are possible. Latest NBM probabilities for gale-force
winds (gusts >= 35 knots) peaks near 50%, so that`s a trend we are
monitoring. Rough seas are anticipated on Saturday, in the 5 to 8 ft
range from 0-20 nm out and 8 to 10 ft in the waters from 20-60nm
out.

Sunday into Monday: The surface high pressure gets pushed off into
the Atlantic as the remnant surface low pressure is expected to push
off into the northeast states before moving offshore. This will
likely keep winds breezy on Sunday as southerly winds move in, with
breezy westerly winds on Monday. Currently, expecting at least Small
Craft Advisory conditions to persist into Sunday, with a non-zero
chance for them to continue to portions of Monday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The Metter, GA, NOAA Weather Radio Station (WWH-25) will be
offline from 8 AM Wednesday, October 7, through the afternoon
of Thursday, October 8. The transmitter is being relocated.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$