North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

046
FXUS62 KCHS 232359
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
759 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Key Message 1 has been updated to reflect ongoing trends. The
Aviation Section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance. The
Climate Section has been updated to indicate a record high at
KCHS today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A strong backdoor cold front will move through this
  evening, bringing isolated showers/thunderstorms this evening
  along with breezy winds and cooler conditions tonight into
  Tuesday.

- 2) Near-record warmth possible Friday before a cold front
  brings cooler conditions this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A strong backdoor cold front will move through this
evening, bringing isolated showers/thunderstorms this evening
along with breezy winds and cooler conditions tonight into
Tuesday.

Latest radar imagery indicates a few showers developing just
upstream to the local area along/near an approaching cold
front, which should make way into parts of Southeast South
Carolina during early evening hours. Ahead of this feature,
strong low-lvl lapse rates and modest SBCAPE should quickly
weaken post sunset while 0-6 km shear peaks around 20 kt or
less, likely limiting the intensity of most precip activity. An
isolated thunderstorm can not be ruled out during the next
couple hours, but conditions become less favorable with diurnal
heat loss and should generally be in the form of showers.

Outside of any convection, breezy conditions are expected tonight
into Tuesday as surface high pressure builds in from the north
behind the front. Inland locations could experience gusts up to 25
mph, while coastal areas are likely to see the strongest winds.
Beach locations could experience gusts of 30-35 mph, with a few
spots potentially reaching near 40 mph, coming off the ocean. Over
Lake Moultrie winds will strengthen with frequent gusts around 20
kt. Gusts could reach 25 kt, particularly following the initial
frontal passage late this evening, but a Lake Wind Advisory was
withheld due to the short-lived conditions.

As cooler high pressure filters in from the north and cold air
advection intensifies after midnight, temperatures will drop
tonight, with lows forecasted in the upper 40s across interior
southeast South Carolina counties and in the lower to middle 50s
farther south. Tuesday`s highs will be cooler, reaching the lower to
middle 60s across the Lowcountry and upper 60s across southeast
Georgia. Northern Berkeley County and areas along the Charleston
coast may struggle to reach 60 degrees. Despite this noticeable cool-
down, temperatures will align more closely with seasonal norms.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Near-record warmth possible Friday before a cold
front brings cooler conditions this weekend.

A broad trough aloft will shift offshore Thursday, allowing heights
to rise and permitting a brief rebound in temperatures above
climatological norms. Forecasted highs Friday are expected to be in
the mid to upper 80s, potentially challenging existing records (see
Climate section).

Following this warm period, a cold front is expected to push through
Friday night into Saturday, ushering in significantly cooler
conditions. Overnight lows could even drop into the upper 30s across
northern interior counties, including Berkeley, Dorchester, and
Colleton. Cooler conditions are expected for the weekend, with highs
in the 60s. Although more confident in the cooler conditions, model
guidance remains uncertain regarding the potential for showers or
thunderstorms with the frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR to begin the 18Z TAF period at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV. A backdoor cold
front is forecast to push southward this evening, bringing a risk of
showers and thunderstorms to KCHS/KJZI. A TEMPO group from 23Z to
02Z accounts for impacts from these showers/tstorms. As the front
pushes southward the precipitation will slowly wane, with minimal
impacts expected at KSAV, so only a VCSH was included at this time.
After the front pushes through the winds will shift to the NE and
become gusty, generally around 20 knots. Upon daybreak Tuesday winds
will increase again, gusting to around 25 knots.

Extended Aviation Outlook: On Tuesday, winds will shift out of the
northeast with gusts up to 25 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions across the marine waters will quickly deteriorate this
evening as a strong backdoor cold front pushes southward across the
marine waters. The combination of cooler temperatures and a
tightening pressure gradient will yield gusty NE winds to Gale Force
(outside of the Charleston Harbor) and building seas. A Gale Warning
is in effect for all coastal waters outside of the Charleston
Harbor, where a Small Craft Advisory is in effect.

Tuesday through Saturday: Gusts will likely peak Tuesday morning
around 30 to 35 kt. Gale Warnings for all marine zones will continue
into Tuesday evening, in addition to the Small Craft Advisory for
the Charleston Harbor. Wave heights will peak Tuesday afternoon,
reaching 6-9 ft within 20 nm and 9-11 ft across the Georgia offshore
waters (from 20-60 nm).

High pressure building into the region and a relaxing pressure
gradient Tuesday night should lead to diminishing winds and
gradually subsiding seas, although 6 ft waves will persist over the
outer Georgia waters into Wednesday night. Conditions could then
deteriorate near the end of the period as another strong cold front
approaches.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

March 23:
A record high temperature of 90 degrees was set at North Charleston
SC today. This breaks the old record of 87 degrees set in 1995.

March 27:
KCHS: 87/2021
KCXM: 81/2021
KSAV: 89/2021

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ330.
     Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ350-352.
     Gale Warning from 2 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ354.
     Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for
     AMZ374.

&&

$$

BRS/CPM/DPB