North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

147
FXUS62 KCHS 241118
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
718 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation section to reflect the 12z aviation forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Dry conditions and below normal temperatures will continue
  through early next week before gradually warming up by the
  end of the week.

- 2) A significant multi-day coastal flooding event is expected
  this weekend through at least the middle of next week.

- 3) Strong northeast flow this weekend and into early next
  week will result in several hazards including gusty lake
  winds, rip currents, high surf, and beach erosion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry conditions and below normal temperatures
will continue through early next week before gradually warming
up by the end of the week.

Today through Friday: The overall pattern will be rather
persistent over the next 7 days or so with upper level ridging
over the northern Gulf coast and a rather pesky upper
trough/cutoff low meandering around the Bahamas. Surface high
pressure has built down through the mid-atlantic with a weak
wedge setting up across the Carolinas. Dry and cool conditions
will prevail under the wedge through Sunday. The wedge should
relax Monday into Tuesday as temperatures slowly climb back
towards normal by midweek. By late in the week, the upper ridge
should begin to breakdown and translate east across the
southeastern US bringing a temporary warming to the area as
highs climb back close to 80 degrees by Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A significant multi-day coastal flooding event is
expected this weekend through at least the middle of next week.

Astronomical tides will continue to rise through the weekend and
into next week due to the upcoming full moon (10/26) and the lunar
perigee (10/28). Large tidal departures are already ongoing, and
with an extended period of strong northeast flow this weekend and
into next week, these departures will increase in magnitude. The
combination of the highest astronomical tides of the year and
persistent strong northeast flow will result in a multi-day moderate
to major coastal flooding event for the entire southeast GA/SC
coast.

Upcoming morning high tide (~7 am): Moderate coastal flooding
will likely occur at Charleston with the morning high tide
cycle. The astronomical high tide is 6.19 ft MLLW and we are
currently running a 1.3 ft departure as we head into the
preceding low tide. We are expecting winds to increase offshore
this morning leading to likely even higher departures occurring.
We currently expect high tide to peak in the 7.5-7.6 ft MLLW
range, and a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for Charleston
and coastal Colleton counties. At Fort Pulaski, the astronomical
high tide is expected to reach 8.05 ft MLLW and with the same
expectations with departures we expect Fort Pulaski to reach 9.6
ft. A Coastal Flood ADvisory is in effect for all of the
Georgia Coastline, coastal Beaufort and Coastal Jasper counties
in South Carolina.

Over the weekend and into the middle of next week, there is
increasing potential for multiple rounds of moderate to major
coastal flooding at Charleston and minor to moderate coastal
flooding at Fort Pulaski. The highest water levels are expected to
occur with the Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday morning high tide
cycles. During these cycles, confidence is increasing that
Charleston will exceed major flood stage (8.0 ft MLLW) and Fort
Pulaski will exceed moderate flood stage (10.0 ft MLLW). There is
even concern that Fort Pulaski could reach or exceed its major flood
stage (10.5 ft MLLW), which has never happened in its history
(records begin in 1935) outside of a tropical system. Coastal
flooding will likely occur with both the morning and evening high
cycles for several days, though the evening tide will be the lower
of the two. Coastal Flood Advisories will definitely be needed, and
Coastal Flood Watches/Warnings are very likely for some or all of
the coast from Sunday through Wednesday.


KEY MESSAGE 3: Strong northeast flow this weekend and into early
next week will result in several hazards including gusty lake winds,
rip currents, high surf, and beach erosion.

Rip Currents: Strong northeast winds and increased wave action will
result in dangerous rip currents this weekend. A High Risk of rip
currents is in effect for all area beaches both Saturday and Sunday,
with an elevated risk persisting through mid-next week.

High Surf/Beach Erosion: Breaking wave heights will increase this
morning, reaching 5 to 6 ft or higher along area beaches by late
afternoon. High Surf Advisories are in effect for the entire
Southeast South Carolina and Southeast Georgia coast into Monday,
when breakers should subside below 5 ft. Additionally, the
combination of elevated tides, increased wave action, and persistent
gusty northeast winds will likely produce beach erosion, with the
most significant erosion occurring around high tide cycles this
weekend.

Lake Winds: Gusty northeast winds will pick up across Lake Moultrie
early this morning and persist through the weekend. Wind gusts up to
25 kt are expected early Saturday morning, mainly between 4 and 9
AM. However, given the early timing and brief duration, we have
opted against issuing a Lake Wind Advisory for this morning. Gusts
will decrease quickly through late morning as the boundary layer
decouples over the relatively cooler lake waters. After sunset this
evening, the pattern will flip. Winds will rapidly ramp up as cold
air advects over the warmer lake waters, triggering strong vertical
mixing and dragging 30 kt gusts down to the surface. A Lake Wind
Advisory has been issued for Saturday night into Sunday morning.
This diurnal cycle will repeat Sunday, with daytime winds easing
before stronger gusts redevelop Sunday night, when an additional
Lake Wind Advisory will likely be needed. Furthermore, the
combination of steady northeast winds and 2-3 ft waves could yield
minor lakeshore erosion along the southwest side of the lake along
with some overwash. This includes areas from roughly Pinopolis to
Blacks Camp near Cross.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions should continue throughout the period with gusty
northeasterly winds. Wind gusts up to around 25 knots will be
possible throughout the day and potentially persist into the
overnight. Winds should relax slightly after midnight.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Breezy north-northeast winds are expected
at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV through the middle of next week, peaking Sunday
afternoon with gusts up to 30 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Saturday through Monday: High pressure will continue to strengthen
across the Mid-Atlantic while low pressure organizes near the
Bahamas this weekend. This setup favors a prolonged pinched pressure
gradient across the local marine area, with conditions rapidly
deteriorating this morning. Gale Warnings are now in effect for all
coastal waters outside of Charleston Harbor. Gale-force gusts will
persist across both nearshore and offshore legs into Monday,
lingering longest over the Georgia outer waters (20-60 nm).
Charleston Harbor will see northeast gusts of 25 to 30 kt and waves
of 1 to 2 ft through the weekend, and a Small Craft Advisory remains
in effect there through Sunday night.

Tuesday through Thursday: Winds and seas will begin a slight
downward trend Monday night into Tuesday. However, a prevailing
tight gradient between inland high pressure and an offshore low will
likely maintain elevated winds and seas through the entire period.
Small Craft Advisory level winds and elevated seas are expected to
continue across the coastal waters, outside of the Charleston
Harbor, through at least the middle of next week.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for GAZ217-
     219-239-241.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for GAZ217-219-239-
     241.
     High Surf Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT Monday
     for GAZ217-219-239-241.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for
     SCZ148>151.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ148>151.
     High Surf Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT Monday
     for SCZ148>151.
     Lake Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Sunday
     for SCZ045.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for AMZ340.
     Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Monday for AMZ360-362-364.
     Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT Monday for AMZ380-382.
     Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ384.

&&

$$

Black/BRS