North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

194
FXUS62 KCHS 050612
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
112 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Patchy fog possible across portions of the South Carolina
  Lowcountry this morning.

- 2) Unseasonably warm temperatures expected through late week,
  with scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two possible on
  Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Patchy fog possible across portions of the South
Carolina Lowcountry this morning.

Surface dewpoints will remain in the mid to upper 60s through
daybreak this morning, providing very narrow dewpoint depressions.
Given light to calm winds and thin mid and high clouds, patchy fog
and stratus may develop across portions of the SC Lowcountry early
this morning. REFS indicate that the probability of visibility
falling to around half mile will range between 40-60% during the pre-
dawn hours. The forecast will feature a mention of fog early this
morning. If fog coverage or density increases, then a Special
Weather Statement could be issued. Any fog that develops should
dissipate during the first hour or two of daylight.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Unseasonably warm temperatures expected through late
week, with scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two possible on
Friday.

Temperatures are forecast to warm into the mid 80s this afternoon.
In fact, high temperatures could near record high values, see
Climate section below. High resolution guidance indicates that a sea
breeze will develop early this afternoon, drifting inland through
early this evening. The sea breeze may trigger isolated showers,
generally along and west of the I-95 corridor.

Friday will start with a weak cold front just west of the area. The
front will progress through the area during the day, pushing
offshore in the evening. The better forcing passes by to the north,
but guidance is consistent in showing a broken line of showers and a
couple embedded thunderstorms moving through with the front.
Significant rainfall is not expected, but a few spots could pick up
0.50-1". An axis of higher instability will develop closer to the
coast, east of I95, but will remain fairly weak, so the threat for
severe weather is low despite increasing wind fields. Dry weather
will return for the weekend and early next week.

Temperatures on Friday will remain above normal, generally peaking
in the upper 70s to lower 80s. These values will remain shy of any
records.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Prior to the 6Z TAFs, MVFR ceilings were observed over KJZI. Recent
runs of the HRRR indicate that sfc condensation pressure deficits
will fall below 3 mbs across KCHS and KJZI from 8Z until 13Z. Given
dewpoints in the upper 60s, light to calm winds, and thin mid and
high clouds, rounds of fog and stratus this morning. The most
restrictive conditions at KCHS and KJZI should occur just prior to
daybreak, with LIFR ceilings and MVFR fog. KSAV may see periods of
MVFR fog or ground fog between 10-12Z, highlighted with a TEMPO.
Conditions should return to VFR by 1330Z.

Temperatures are forecast to warm into the mid 80s this afternoon.
High resolution guidance indicates that a sea breeze will develop
early this afternoon, drifting inland through early this evening.
The sea breeze may trigger isolated showers, potentially near or
over KSAV, highlighted with a mention of VCSH. Any showers should
dissipate or shift inland by early this evening.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible in
scattered showers/thunderstorms on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through Tonight: The forecast pattern will support
southeast winds generally less than 10 kts. Seas should range
between 2 to 4 ft.

Friday through Tuesday: Marine conditions will remain below Small
Craft Advisory criteria through the period. A weak cold front will
push into the waters Friday evening, with high pressure returning
thereafter. Winds will peak around 15 knots following fropa over the
weekend, with seas 3-5 feet. Winds will settle around 10 kt or less
and seas 2-4 feet for early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures:

November 5:
KCHS: 87/2003
KCXM: 81/1992
KSAV: 85/2003

November 6:
KCXM: 81/2003

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

November 5:
KCHS: 69/2003
KCXM: 71/2024
KSAV: 70/2003

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

ETM/NED