North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

541
FXUS62 KCHS 280209
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1009 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
KEY MESSAGE 1 has been updated to reflect trends tonight. The
Aviation Section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Unsettled weather will continue, with increasing chances of
  showers and thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Unsettled weather will continue, with increasing
chances of showers and thunderstorms this weekend.

Tonight: Mid-level troughing dominates the synoptic pattern aloft,
while a stationary front remains positioned over the SC Midlands.
With these two features influencing the region scattered to numerous
thunderstorms continue near the southern Southeast South Carolina
and Southeast Georgia coast this evening, but are likely to shift
offshore by around midnight tonight. Much of the night will then
remain dry for most areas, but some HIRES guidance suggests few to
scattered showers/thunderstorms attempting to redevelop a few hours
prior to daybreak, mainly across coastal South Carolina, before
shifting offshore and possibly interacting with a land breeze. Given
PWATS in excess of 2.0 inches, activity could result in brief heavy
downpours prior to daybreak.

Friday through Monday: The mid-levels will consist of a trough over
the eastern third of the U.S. on Friday. It`ll quickly weaken and
lift north on Saturday, with gradually building heights overhead
Sunday into Monday. At the surface, a stationary front should be
located well to our west and northwest on Friday, with surface
troughing also near our area. This general pattern will remain in
place on Saturday, followed by a cold front potentially moving
through on Sunday. There will be a deep plume of moisture ahead of
the front, and across the Southeast U.S. PWATs will be around 2",
but there could be brief periods where it peaks around 2.3". These
values are well above normal for this time of year. The combination
of regional lift, aided by the nearby front, and the sea breeze will
generate an active weather pattern. Models are in fairly good
agreement showing numerous to widespread showers and embedded
thunderstorms Friday and Saturday afternoons, with perhaps slightly
less coverage Sunday afternoon and again Monday afternoon. High
temperatures will be near normal, but that`ll still provide decent
instability for late August. Therefore, we can`t rule out strong to
marginally severe storms each afternoon. The main concern will be
the potential for locally heavy rainfall Friday and Saturday. Friday
appears to be the day with more flooding potential given the overall
synoptic and mesoscale setup. Regardless, there could certainly be
slow moving, training, or back building storms both days that could
drop significant amounts of rainfall locally. These details will
need to be refined with future forecasts, especially when it comes
to flash flooding. Also, WPC has our area highlighted in the ERO
both days.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TEMPO MVFR conditions remain at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 03Z
Friday, although additional activity could temporarily impact
CHS/JZI terminals a few hours prior to daybreak. Outside this
activity, expect mainly VFR conditions at all terminals through late
morning hours Friday, before scattered shower/thunderstorms develop
across the region during afternoon hours. PROB30 groups for
thunderstorms and MVFR conditions have been introduced Friday
between 18-24Z at CHS, 19-23Z at JZI, and 19-24Z at SAV.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms will bring
brief flight restrictions through the weekend, especially during the
afternoons.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight: The pressure pattern will generally support
southwest winds between 10 to 15 kts across the marine zones.
Wave heights are forecast to remain between 2 to 3 ft. Showers
and storms could form along the land breeze early Friday
morning, with the potential for waterspouts.

Extended Marine: A stationary front should be located well inland on
Friday, with surface troughing also near our area. This general
pattern will remain in place on Saturday, followed by a cold front
potentially moving through on Sunday. No Small Craft Advisories are
expected, with sustained winds generally 10 kt or less and seas 2-3
ft. However, some thunderstorms may bring brief periods of higher
winds along with frequent lightning.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$