North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

397
FXUS62 KCHS 050727
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
327 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Unsettled weather with a risk for minor/flash flooding this
  morning.

- 2) Cooler temperatures along with breezy to windy conditions
  are expected into the middle of next week.

- 3) Coastal flooding and significant coastal hazards are
  expected during the middle of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Unsettled weather with a risk for minor/flash
flooding this morning.

Through Daybreak: Light to moderate rain/showers continue across the
area, with the bulk of activity occurring in the vicinity of a
nearly stationary front extending west-east near the SC/GA state
line. Expect precip activity to continue for the next few hours
along and north of this feature as plentiful moisture (PWATS ~2.5
inches) and forcing remain, continuing a risk for minor flooding
issues (non-zero/limited flash flood risk) across some areas given
already saturated grounds. Latest radar trends and hires guidance
suggest a slight downward trend in precip accumulation heading into
daybreak as the front begins to nudge southward while a reinforced
longwave trough advances across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic
States.

Today: The aforementioned front will likely be on the move during
morning hours, shifting south/offshore during the day and remaining
the primary focus for rain/shower activity with the potential for
flooding issues into mid-late morning hours. Latest forecast
soundings indicate drier air beginning to infiltrate from the north
and inland by mid-morning as high pressure wedges south into the
area. This will put an end to a heavy rainfall and/or high rainfall
rate concerns locally with time, starting across northern and inland
areas early morning, followed by southern/coastal areas in Southeast
Georgia late morning. Given the expected trend, the greatest risk
for minor and/or perhaps limited flash flooding should occur south
of I-16 in Southeast Georgia, but mainly closer to the Altamaha
River/coastal Georgia areas where deep moisture (PWATs 2.25-2.5
inches) and low CAPE values persist prior to fropa. The latest WPC
Excessive Rainfall Outlook follows this trend, marking parts of
Southeast Georgia near the Altamaha River/coastal Georgia areas in a
Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall. Once fropa occurs, drier air
begins to settle into the area, limiting light shower activity to
far southern zones during afternoon hours, prior to the bulk of
activity shifting offshore late afternoon into early evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Cooler temperatures along with breezy to windy
conditions are expected into the middle of next week.

Today: A cold front is currently moving through southeast South
Carolina, pushing into and through southeast Georgia later this
morning into the afternoon hours. Cooler air begins to filter in
throughout the day, and with the mostly cloudy skies daytime highs
will struggle to get higher than the mid 70s. Northeasterly winds
start to get breezy during the afternoon hours, though gusts should
remain below 20 mph.

Tuesday: Overnight into Tuesday, a strong 1025mb surface high
pressure moves out of the Great Lakes region and towards the
northeast coast, while a surface low pressure develops along the
front south of the region over the Atlantic during the morning. This
will result in increasingly breezy/windy conditions on Tuesday,
peaking in the afternoon and decreasing into the overnight hours. As
noted from the previous discussion, the trend of slightly weaker
winds continues as the pressure gradient tightens over the Atlantic.
Now areas well away from the coast may see some gusts to near 20
mph, while those along the coast are in the 30 to 40 mph range,
highest across southeast Georgia. Elevated and/or more exposed areas
along the coast may exceed 40 mph, which may necessitate the need
for a wind advisory along the southeast Georgia coastline, with a
Lake Wind advisory possible as well for Lake Moultrie where wind
gusts to 30 knots are possible.

As weak shortwaves make their way around the base of the trough,
light to moderate rain is possible mostly across portions of
southeast Georgia, though rainfall chances may extend north into
Beaufort/Hilton Head area. As dry air filters in from the north,
there will likely be a sharp gradient where rain falls, with
precipitable water values as low as 0.6-0.7" near Lake Moultrie and
as high as 1.7-1.8" near Darien.  With h925 temps dropping into the
16-18 deg C range, high temperatures remain in the lower to mid 70s

Wednesday: The surface high pressure weakens as it slides down the
east coast to near 1020 mb by daybreak, with the aforementioned
surface low remaining well offshore of GA/FL keeping the surface
pressure gradient elevated across the region before decreasing
throughout the afternoon hours. This will result in areas far from
the coast likely experiencing gusts below 20 mph while those along
the coast will be closer to 25 to 35 mph during the morning hours,
decreasing into the afternoon and evening hours. Chances for
rainfall remain low as dry low-mid levels overspread the area.
Temperatures on Wednesday remain uncertain as models tend to
underestimate how quickly the CAD erodes, though the increasing
sunshine should bring afternoon temperatures back up into the upper
70s.

Thursday-Saturday: As weak ridging occurs aloft, surface high
pressure looks to linger across the southeast region with the area
of low pressure well offshore of GA/FL on Thursday. On Friday, the
surface high pressure strengthens as it moves towards the northeast
coast, potentially bringing another round of cooler and wetter
conditions on Saturday as h500 shortwaves move overhead.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Coastal flooding and significant coastal hazards
are expected during the middle of the week.

Coastal Flooding: Strong northeast winds associated with a wedge of
high pressure inland and low pressure offshore in combination with
high astronomical tide levels will likely support coastal flooding
issues this week. The pattern suggests a minor/moderate saltwater
inundation setup Tuesday and Wednesday during the late afternoon
high tide cycles, with the greatest risk for moderate coastal
flooding along Charleston and Coastal Colleton Counties. There is a
more limited risk for minor coastal flooding issues into Thursday
along the SC coast. Coastal Flood Advisories will likely be needed
mid-week.

Rip Currents/High Surf/Beach Erosion: The setup looks highly
favorable for strong and dangerous rip currents Tuesday into
Wednesday with breezy/gusty northeast winds expected. In addition,
there will be an increased risk for high surf along the beaches with
the latest guidance still showing a potential for 4-7 ft breakers
developing in the surf zone (largest for coastal Georgia) by Tuesday
afternoon and lingering into Wednesday. A High Surf Advisory should
be needed for some beaches. Significant beach erosion is also
likely, particularly around times of high tide. Guidance suggests
beach erosion chances are highest around the Tuesday afternoon high
tide.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CHS/JZI: Periods of IFR conditions are expected through ~18Z today,
mainly in the form of low cigs, but also during light to moderate
rain/showers through morning hours. Conditions should improve to
MVFR by 21Z today as drier air filters into the region, followed by
VFR by around 01Z Tuesday. However, low-end VFR cigs should persist
through 06Z Tuesday.

SAV: VFR conditions should generally prevail for a few hours early
morning, but pockets of rain/showers and the approach of a nearby
front should bring IFR cigs to the terminal by around 10Z today. IFR
conditions should then prevail through much of the day, with the
risk for light to moderate rains also reducing vsbys at times. By
around 01Z Tuesday, conditions should improve to MVFR, but could
persist through 06Z Tuesday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Gusty winds and MVFR (or lower) stratus
are likely on Tuesday, with breezy winds continuing on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: A cold front will be pushing through and south of the
region today, resulting in increasingly breezy northeasterly
winds developing. A wedge of strong high pressure builds into
the region overnight into Tuesday, further strengthening the
winds with gusts of 25 to 30 knots by daybreak. There remains a
possibility for Small Craft Advisories to be needed, but given
how quickly Gales may develop Tuesday morning we held off for
now as the watch starts at 5 AM. For the Charleston Harbor, a
Small Craft Advisory goes into affect at 5 AM Tuesday.

Tuesday: Marine conditions are expected to quickly deteriorate
throughout the morning hours as wind gusts of 35 to 40 knots build,
strongest across both zones from Savannah to Altamaha Sound, GA as a
surface low pressure develops along a front offshore of GA/FL. 6
foot waves build quickly build with the windy conditions, with 4-7
ft waves along the coast by the afternoon and 10-11 ft waves in all
zones from 20-60nm offshore. Wind strength decreases into the
overnight hours as the low pressure moves further out to sea,
bringing an end to the Gale conditions during the early overnight
hours on Wednesday. For the Charleston Harbor, the Small Craft
Advisory expires at 2 AM.

Wednesday: The pinched surface pressure gradient continues into
Wednesday, though wind gusts will have lowered into the 25 to 34
knot range which will necessitate the need for a Small Craft
Advisory. Wave heights are expected to slowly subside on Wednesday,
with 4 to 5 foot breaker waves along the coast by the evening hours.
In the 20-60nm offshore zones expect 6 to 9 foot waves by the
evening hours, highest in the Savannah to Altamaha Sound zone.

Thurday-Friday: Conditions are expected to improve on Thursday,
though rough seas will likely persist into early Friday especially
for the 20 to 60nm offshore zones. Another surface high pressure may
setup along the northeast coast on Friday, potentially increasing
wind speeds and wave heights across local waters.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Precipitation:

October 5:
KCXM: 1.17/1915

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ340.
     Gale Watch from late tonight through late Tuesday night for
     AMZ360-362-380.
     Gale Watch from late tonight through late Tuesday night for
     AMZ364-382-384.

&&

$$

APT/DPB