North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

215
FXUS62 KCHS 132358
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
758 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All Key Messages and section were updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Heat will remain a concern into early next week.

- 2) Isolated severe t-storms possible Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Heat will remain a concern into next week.

Friday through Monday: A prominent ridge will continue expand
across the Southeast through early next week. This will yield
west- southwesterly flow combined with afternoon highs in the
mid to upper 90s (with some spots briefly hitting 100F). In
addition to the extreme temperatures, it`ll be quite humid
outside with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. Expect PWAT
values to range from 2.0 to 2.2 inches with the highest moisture
generally located along and east of the I-95 corridor.
Afternoon heat index values could reach upwards of 120F tomorrow
(Friday) through Monday across the coastal corridor (east of
I-95). For the remaining inland counties, heat index values west
of I-95 will range from 105F to 112F through Monday. Also, the
maximum web-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) will be above 90F each
day through early next week as well, this means a majority of
the region will be under Black Flag conditions. It will not feel
pleasant outside and there will be little to no relief from the
heat overnight with low temperatures ranging from upper 70s to
low 80s. Therefore, an Extreme Heat Warning will continue into
Friday for the coastal counties, and a Heat Advisory will also
continue for the remaining inland counties for the same
timeframe. Thereafter, we will likely need to issue heat hazards
everyday through early next week.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Isolated severe t-storms possible Friday.

As an upper-lvl ridge continues to build across the Southeast
Friday, multiple MCVs will likely round the edge of the ridge,
yielding the potential for strong thunderstorms to develop
within a very hot and humid environment. Some of the near- term
guidance has been indicating isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing across the Midlands and then tracking
across the South Carolina Lowcountry and southeast Georgia in
the late afternoon and evening hours. The environment will
feature moderate amount of instability (SBCAPE values of
2000-2250 J/kg with DCAPE values upwards of 800 J/kg) in the
afternoon, yielding possibility of damaging wind gusts within
the stronger thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z TAFs:
KCHS/KJZI: Convection will bring brief flight restrictions to
both sites until at least 01Z, or possibly 02Z. Then, VFR is
expected overnight into Friday morning. Another round of
convection is possible Friday afternoon, but confidence for any
one particular cell impacting either terminal is low. Therefore,
we have a PROB30 group. Adjustments will be needed in future
TAFs.

KSAV: VFR is expected overnight into Friday morning. A round of
convection is possible Friday afternoon, but confidence for any
one particular cell impacting the TAF site is low. Therefore,
we have a PROB30 group. Adjustments will be needed in future
TAFs.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Periodic flight restrictions are
expected in the afternoons with the chance of showers and
thunderstorms through early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight: Quiet conditions will persist across the waters
with southerly winds 15 kt or less and seas 2 ft or less.

Friday through Monday: As a weak coastal trough situates itself
across the Atlantic, marine conditions will remain on the quiet
side with south-southwesterly winds ranging from 10 to 15 kts
with gusts up to 20 kts possible through the period. Weak south-
southwesterly swell will continue to taper into the waters
through the weekend yielding 2 to 3 ft seas.

Coastal Flooding: Tide levels could remain elevated due to the
recent perigee and new moon during the evening high tide cycle,
although a south-southwesterly wind should keep tidal departures
less favorable for a coastal flood threat. Should onshore winds
linger longer than anticipated, minor coastal flooding (~7.0 ft
MLLW) could briefly become an issue in the Charleston Harbor
during the high tide this evening, which occurs around 930 PM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

August 14:
KCHS: 102/1995
KSAV: 102/1925

August 15:
KCHS: 96/2023
KCXM: 99/1918
KSAV: 100/1918

August 17:
KCHS: 102/1954
KSAV: 102/1954

August 18:
KCXM: 97/1995
KSAV: 100/1995

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

August 14:
KCHS: 80/2023
KCXM: 83/2023
KSAV: 80/2023

August 15:
KCHS: 78/1995
KCXM: 83/2021
KSAV: 80/1995

August 16:
KCHS: 78/2019
KCXM: 83/2016
KSAV: 78/2019

August 17:
KCHS: 80/2017
KCXM: 83/2017
KSAV: 78/2017

August 18:
KCHS: 80/2017
KCXM: 82/2017
KSAV: 78/2010

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for GAZ087-088-099>101-114-
     115-137.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for GAZ216>219-
     238>241.
SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for SCZ040-042>044.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for SCZ045-147>152.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$