North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

554
FXUS62 KCHS 010956
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
456 AM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail through Friday. A low pressure
system will move through on Saturday, followed by more high
pressure next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: The synoptic pattern across the Southeast U.S. will
change little today with the region remaining pinned between
large high pressure over the Gulf and a broad lee-trough
immediately downwind of the Southern Appalachians. Aloft, the
longwave trough that has been in place across the eastern CONUS
for much of the week will finally begin to dampen and lift out
as strong ridging along the Rockies nudges east. Sunny skies
will prevail today although the southern fringes of an area of
mountain-wave induce cirrus passing to the north over North
Carolina could brush the northern areas this morning. Low-
level thickness schemes support highs in the lower-mid 60s,
except just a tad cooler at the beaches.

Tonight: Quiet conditions will persist into the overnight
period. A cold front is forecast to stall north of the area as
high pressure over the Gulf meanders east to the Florida
Peninsula by daybreak Friday. High clouds will be on the
increase with lows ranging from the upper 30s/near 40 inland to
the upper 40s/near 50 at the beaches.

Lake Winds: Winds have responded with the passage of a dry cold
front. West winds of 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt will linger
through daybreak, quickly subsiding below advisory thresholds by
mid-morning. A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect until 10 AM.
Waves as high 2 ft can be expected with the highest winds and
most significant wave action occurring over the central and
eastern portions of the lake.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Temperatures continue to warm on Friday as a warm front lifts
across the region, but with cloud coverage increasing, afternoon
temperatures will only reach up in the lower to mid 60s.
Moisture advection begins to bring dewpoints back up into the
upper 30s to lower 40s by the late afternoon, further rising
into the mid 40s to lower 50s by daybreak on Saturday. The warm
front will also bring much warmer overnight temptress, largely
in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Weak shortwaves in the mid levels begin to traverse the area
overnight, with a surface low pressure moving towards the area
from the deep south ahead of the main shortwave. This will bring
chances for light to moderate rain showers along with isolated
thunderstorms starting early Saturday morning and ending
overnight into Sunday as the surface low moves offshore. The
bulk of the rainfall is expected to fall during the afternoon
hours and into the evening. Agreement amongst the models remains
high, all showing increasing probabilities for a wetting rain
event. Probabilities for a quarter inch are now in the 85-95%
range, chances for a half inch in the 50- 75% range (lowest near
the Altamaha Sound), while chances for an inch remaining fairly
steady in the 10-30% range.

CAPE is expected to largely remain below 500 J/kg, and looks to
only create general thunderstorms. There is a low nonzero risk
for an isolated strong/severe thunderstorm across southeast
Georgia, where deep-layer shear is highest near 40 knots. A few
of the AI/ML analysis have picked up on this threat, with SPC
highlighting a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe
thunderstorms for southeast Georgia and into extreme southerly
southeast South Carolina. Despite the rain, afternoon
temperatures in the lower to upper 60s are expected.

Northwesterly flow aloft moves in behind the exiting shortwave,
with a cold front moving through overnight into Sunday. Any
remaining showers will be ending throughout the morning hours,
with temperatures a touch cooler into the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For the beginning of next week, a surface high pressure moves
into the northeast. This will bring a dry and warming trend,
with lower to mid 60s on Monday, mid 60s to lower 70s on
Tuesday, and upper 60s to lower 70s on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
01/12z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 02/12z.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions expected to prevail
on Friday. Chances for rain return on Saturday, along with
possible flight category restrictions from both lowered cigs and
vsbys. VFR conditions return Sunday and into next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight: Wind have surged with the passage of a dry
cold front and the onset of modest cold air advection. West
winds of 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt will linger over the
South Carolina nearshore waters and the Georgia offshore waters
before diminishing later this morning. A Small Craft Advisory is
in effect until 10 AM for these waters. Winds still look to
peak 15-20 kt with a few gusts to 25 kt over the Georgia
nearshore waters. Gusts to 25 kt do not look frequent enough for
an advisory at this time. For Charleston Harbor, the risk for
frequent gusts to 25 kt continues through mid- morning and a
Small Craft Advisory is in effect there as well through 10 AM.
West winds will settle to 10-15 kt nearshore waters and 15-20 kt
over the Georgia offshore waters this afternoon and continue
into the overnight period. Seas 2-4 ft nearshore/3-5 ft offshore
subsiding to 1-3 ft nearshore/3-4 ft offshore this afternoon.
Seas overnight will range 1-2 ft nearshore/2-3 ft offshore.

Friday through Monday: Westerly winds will remain gusty
throughout the day on Friday, turning southwesterly throughout
the day. Chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms return
on Saturday as a low pressure system moves through, with gusty
southwest winds near Small Craft Criteria expected,
particularity in the outer Georgia waters and nearshore
Charleston county waters Saturday morning/afternoon. 6 foot seas
for portions of the same areas are also expected. Winds become
northerly on the backside of the aforementioned surface low,
decreasing in strength throughout the day on Sunday. No marine
concerns expected for Monday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Elevated morning high tides rise above 6 feet MLLW on Friday,
remaining elevated into the weekend. Wind directions aren`t very
favorable for high tidal departures, but with a low pressure
system and rainfall we`ll be watching closely for possible minor
coastal flooding Saturday and Sunday morning along the
Charleston county coast.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for SCZ045.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ330-
     350-352-374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...