North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

673
FXUS62 KCHS 242109
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
509 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Key Message 1 has been updated for trends into early evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A significant, multi-day coastal flooding event is
  expected this weekend through at least the middle of next
  week.

- 2) Strong northeast flow this weekend and into early next week
  will result in several hazards including gusty lake winds, rip
  currents, high surf, and beach erosion.

- 3) Dry conditions and below normal temperatures will continue
  through early next week before gradually warming up by the
  end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A significant multi-day coastal flooding event is
expected this weekend through at least the middle of next week.

Astronomical tides will continue to rise through the remainder
of the weekend and into next week due to the upcoming full moon
(10/26) and the lunar perigee (10/28). Large tidal departures
are already ongoing, and with an extended period of strong
northeast flow this weekend and into next week, these departures
will increase in magnitude. The combination of the highest
astronomical tides of the year and persistent strong northeast
flow will result in a multi-day moderate to major coastal
flooding event for the entire southeast GA/SC coast.

This Evening: The high tide this evening will occur around 7:30
PM and is forecast to reach 7.4-7.6 ft MLLW at the Charleston
Harbor and 9.5-9.7 ft MLLW at Fort Pulaski. A Coastal Flood
Advisory is in effect for the entire coastline.

Sunday: Tide levels at the Charleston Harbor are forecast to
reach 7.9-8.1 ft MLLW and a Coastal Flood Watch has been issued.
A Coastal Flood Advisory will be issued for Fort Pulaski as
well, with forecast values of 10.1-10.3 ft MLLW.

Next Week: The highest water levels are expected to occur with
the Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday morning high tide cycles.
During these cycles, confidence is increasing that Charleston
will exceed major flood stage (8.0 ft MLLW) and Fort Pulaski
will exceed moderate flood stage (10.0 ft MLLW). There is even
concern that Fort Pulaski could reach or exceed its major flood
stage (10.5 ft MLLW), which has never happened in its history
(records begin in 1935) outside of a tropical system. Coastal
flooding will likely occur with both the morning and evening
high cycles for several days, though the evening tide will be
the lower of the two. Coastal Flood Advisories will definitely
be needed, and Coastal Flood Watches/Warnings are very likely
for some or all of the coast from Sunday through Wednesday.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Strong northeast flow this weekend and into
early next week will result in several hazards including gusty
lake winds, rip currents, high surf, and beach erosion.

Rip Currents: Strong northeast winds, increasing long-period swell
and wave action will continue to support dangerous rip currents
along all SC/GA beaches this weekend. A High Risk for rip currents
is in place for all beaches this afternoon through Sunday, and will
likely persist for all beaches again on Monday. An enhanced period
of rip currents will continue into the middle of next week.

High Surf/Beach Erosion: Breaking wave heights will increase late
afternoon and evening, reaching 5-6 ft or possibly higher along area
beaches, likely largest along the GA coast. A High Surf Advisory
remains in effect for the entire Southeast SC/GA coast into Monday.
The combination of elevated tides, increased wave action and the
persistent/gusty northeast winds will likely produce beach erosion
as well, with the most significant impacts occurring around high
tide cycles this weekend into Monday. Another round of high surf is
possible mid-week as the pattern holds in place, although appears to
fall just short of criteria along the SC/GA coast at this time.

Lake Winds: Northeast winds will steadily increase across Lake
Moultrie late day into early evening, then likely persist into late
morning Sunday given water temps in the upper 60s and cold air
advection aloft promoting low-lvl mixing into 1000mb geostrophic
flow around 40 kt. A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect this
evening into late morning Sunday for northeast winds gusting upwards
to 25-30 kt at times. Furthermore, the combination of northeast
winds and 2-3 ft waves could yield minor lakeshore erosion along the
southwest side of the lake along with some overwash. This includes
areas from roughly Pinopolis to Blacks Camp near Cross.


KEY MESSAGE 3: Dry conditions and below normal temperatures
will continue through early next week before gradually warming
up by the end of the week.

Little change in the synoptic pattern is expected through the
next week, with upper level ridging over the northern Gulf Coast
and an upper trough lingering around the Bahamas. At the surface
high pressure will dominate, centered over New England through
mid-week. Temperatures through the remainder of the weekend and
into early next week will be below normal. The wedge of high
pressure will weaken slightly mid-week, with temperatures
returning to near normal by the end of the week as a result. The
forecast remains rain-free through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR through the 18Z TAF period at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV. Gusty NE winds
will continue through the afternoon, gusting 20-25 knots and
upwards of 30 knots at times. Winds will remain elevated through
the overnight, with gusts around 15 to 20 knots.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected at
CHS/JZI/SAV through the middle of next week. However, breezy/gusty
north-northeast winds are likely Sunday afternoon (up to 25-30 kt).

&&

.MARINE...
Saturday through Monday: High pressure continues to strengthen
across the Mid-Atlantic states while low pressure becomes more
organized north of the Bahamas through the weekend. The setup favors
a strong pressure gradient across local waters, supporting the
continuation of Gale Warnings across nearshore/offshore waters into
Monday, but lingering longest across offshore Georgia waters into
Monday night. Gusts up to 40-45 kt are possible, strongest across
southern SC and GA offshore waters. A Small Craft Advisory will also
continue in the Charleston Harbor (gusts 25-30 kt and seas 1-2 ft)
through the weekend, but likely ending prior to daybreak Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday: Winds/seas will gradually trend lower
heading into Tuesday, but a tight gradient between inland high
pressure and persistent low pressure centered well offshore will
likely maintain elevated winds and seas through late week. Solid
Small Craft Advisory level conditions, north-northeast winds 25-30
kt with seas 5-8 ft nearshore and 7-10 ft offshore (largest across
GA waters), will be common through the period and could eventually
lead to another episode of high surf (5 ft breakers) along the
beaches mid-week given the persistent onshore wind and long duration
fetch. The GA coast appears to be more at risk should this scenario
develop.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ217-
     219-239-241.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from 9 PM EDT this evening through
     Sunday morning for GAZ217-219-239-241.
     High Surf Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for GAZ217-219-239-
     241.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for GAZ217-
     219-239-241.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     SCZ148>151.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from 9 PM EDT this evening through
     Sunday morning for SCZ148>151.
     High Surf Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for SCZ148>151.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     SCZ148>151.
     Lake Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Sunday
     for SCZ045.
     Coastal Flood Watch from 4 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday
     morning for SCZ149-150.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for AMZ340.
     Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Monday for AMZ360-362-364.
     Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT Monday for AMZ380-382.
     Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ384.

&&

$$

CPM/DPB