North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

451
FXUS62 KCHS 090615
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
215 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Typical summertime storm activity will continue through
  early this week.

- 2) Hot and humid conditions will return this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Typical summertime storm activity will continue
through early this week.

Today, high pressure centered near Bermuda will gradually ridge to
the west over the region. Forecast soundings indicate that mixing up
to around 5 kft should keep sfc dewpoints in the mid 70s inland,
keeping LFC above 6 kft. A sea breeze may not develop until early
this afternoon, following light west winds through this morning. As
the sea breeze advances inland, isolated to scattered thunderstorms
may develop. However, as a H5 ridge gradually builds across FL,
shallow lapse rates may remain across the forecast area this
afternoon. These thunderstorms should remain as general
thunderstorms with limited updraft strength. In addition, rainfall
potential will remain limited by the short lifespan of these pulse
thunderstorms.

Monday, the overall pattern changes very little from today. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon and
evening. However, forecast soundings do indicate a bit more moisture
and potentially greater instability. However, the potential for any
thunderstorm impacts appears limited by rising H5 heights across the
region.

Tuesday through Thursday, the main issue will be the heat wave
across the region. The hot and humid air mass may result in moderate
instability during the afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings
feature high LFC with an inverted-V profile, DCAPE values may peak
in some areas between 1000-1500 J/kg. It is interesting to note that
some AI Convective Hazard Forecast products indicate a 15-30% chance
for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Hot and humid conditions will return this week.

Temperatures for today will be right around average for early/mid
August, largely in the lower 90s though a few locations may get up
into the mid 90s. With dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, heat index
values will peak in the 100-105 deg F range this afternoon.
Temperatures rise into Monday as a weak coastal trough begins to
develop, advecting in slightly warmer temperatures from the
southwest/west, with this pattern expected to linger across the
region throughout the workweek.

High temperatures each day are expected to peak in the lower to mid
90s, with chances for upper 90s by the end of the week. Inland areas
(especially those well west of the I-95 corridor) will likely see
enough surface mixing to limit dew points to the mid 70s, while
those along the coast will likely see dew points linger in the upper
70s to lower 80s. Combined with the aforementioned temperatures in
the mid to upper 90s, will likely see some heat index values in the
105-112 range along the coast on Monday through Wednesday. By the
end of the week, upper level ridging looks to further increase
temperatures, bringing heat index values up to 115 deg F for
isolated areas. Heat Advisories will likely be needed next week,
with Extreme Heat Warnings not out of the question. Current forecast
is within a few degrees of daily record highs and record high
minimum Tuesday through Friday, for more see the climate section
below.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
6Z TAFs: It is possible that some brief fog could develop across
KJZI and KSAV during the pre-dawn hours this morning, give wet
ground and calm winds. We will leave out of the TAFs at this time
and monitor observations. Light west winds should develop after
sunrise and remain until the sea breeze develops by 19z. This
afternoon, in the wake of the sea breeze, winds should turn from the
south and pick up to near 10 kts. The coverage of convection appears
limited, TAFs will remain dry at this time.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Periodic flight restrictions are expected
in showers and thunderstorms through next week.

&&

.MARINE...
The pressure pattern will support south winds between 10 to 15 kts
today, shifting from the southwest tonight. Wave heights are
forecast to remain between 2 to 3 ft.

Monday through Thursday: Atlantic high pressure will be the dominant
synoptic feature into next week, keeping winds out of the south-
southwest. Light to moderate winds prevail on Monday, though gusty
winds are expected along the land/sea interface during the afternoon
hours as the sea breeze moves ashore. Coastal troughing sets up
overnight into Tuesday and continues throughout the week, keeping
winds breezy with gusts into the teens to lower 20s. Seas look to
remain largely in the 2-3 ft range, though 4 foot waves will be
possible at times in the South Carolina waters from 20-60nm
offshore. Small Craft Advisories currently look unlikely, but will
be something to monitor.

Coastal Flooding: While elevated tidal cycles are expected next week
due to the upcoming perigee and new moon, the south-southwesterly
surface flow should keep tidal departures low, limiting the overall
coastal flood threat.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

August 11:
KCHS: 98/1968
KCXM: 97/1954
KSAV: 100/2011

August 12:
KCHS: 98/1957
KCXM: 98/1998
KSAV: 100/1999

August 13:
KCHS: 100/1995
KCXM: 98/1913
KSAV: 98/2010

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

August 10:
KCHS: 80/2007
KCXM: 83/2007
KSAV: 79/2024

August 11:
KCHS: 79/1983
KCXM: 82/2021
KSAV: 78/1878

August 12:
KCHS: 79/1999
KCXM: 83/2021
KSAV: 80/1878

August 13:
KCHS: 81/2023
KCXM: 83/2023
KSAV: 81/2023

August 14:
KCHS: 80/2023
KCXM: 83/2023
KSAV: 80/2023

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

APT/NED