North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

211
FXUS62 KCHS 061130
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
630 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation section updated for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Patchy fog will be possible across the area early this morning.

- 2) Scattered to numerous showers with a few embedded
  thunderstorms should develop ahead of a cold front this
  afternoon.

- 3) Near-normal seasonal temperatures with dry conditions this
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Patchy fog will be possible across the area early
this morning.

Surface dewpoints across southeast GA and the SC Lowcountry will
remain in the mid to upper 60s early this morning. IR satellite
showed a large patch of high clouds and contrails across the region.
Given thin cloud cover and light to calm surface winds, patchy fog
or ground fog will remain possible through sunrise. Any fog that
does develop should dissipate shortly after daybreak.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Scattered to numerous showers with a few embedded
thunderstorms should develop ahead of a cold front this afternoon.

Temperatures this afternoon are forecast to peak in the low to mid
80s ahead of an approaching cold front. In addition, return flow
show keep dewpoints in the low 70s along the coast to the mid to
upper 60s inland.

A cold front is timed to sweep across southeast GA and the SC
Lowcountry today, likely pushing over the adjacent Atlantic waters
by 0Z. The timing of the front during the heat of the afternoon,
should result in a field of SBCAPE between 1000 to 1500 J/kg with
little to no CIN. The 0Z GFS indicates that an H5 trough will ripple
across the southern Appalachians this afternoon. As the trough
approaches the cold front, a frontal wave is expected to develop
over the Midlands of SC, then tracking northeast along the cold
front to the SC Grand Strand and eastern NC. Showers and
thunderstorms coverage should concentrate within the frontal wave,
tracking just inland and north of the forecast area. However, as the
cold front slides over the forecast area, scattered to numerous
showers with embedded thunderstorms should develop along and ahead
of the cold front. Instability is expected to remain the greatest
over the CHS Tri-county late this afternoon, likely supporting
scattered thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts is forecast to range from
0.25-.5 inches near the northern Charleston and Berkeley County
line, with 0.1-0.25 across the coastal counties, slightly less
inland.

The front should push offshore in the evening hours. In the wake of
the front, drier and cooler air will make a return with a rain-free
forecast in place through early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Near-normal seasonal temperatures with dry conditions
this weekend.

Behind the cold front that pushed through, surface high pressure
will be building into the southeast region on Saturday and into
Sunday. Aloft, the trough axis will move through during the morning
hours, with h500 heights starting to increase as a ridge of high
pressure builds across the central US into Sunday. This will result
in dry conditions throughout the weekend, with cooler near-normal
temperatures expected across the region. With h850 temperatures
ranging from 12 to 16 deg C, Saturday will see afternoon highs in
the lower to mid 70s. Overnight, clear skies and light winds will
result in cool temperatures as radiational cooling takes place. Lows
away from the coast are expected to drop into the lower to mid 40s,
with upper 40s to mid 50s for areas near to along the coast. While
winds are expected to be light, any puff of wind may create wind
chills down into the upper 30s to lower 40s.

The aforementioned surface high pressure expands into Sunday, with
h850 temperatures topping out into the 10 to 12 deg C range. This
will likely result in afternoon highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s,
coolest across southeast South Carolina. Upper level ridging
increases Monday into Tuesday, with afternoon highs back up into the
mid 70s across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Prior to the 12Z TAFs, patchy fog was observed across the
region, with KJZI occasionally reporting dense fog. IR
satellite showed a large patch LIFR SW of KSAV. Based on
satellite trends, restrictive ceilings may reach KSAV between 12
to 15Z, highlighted with a TEMPO. Any fog that does develop
should dissipate shortly after daybreak.

A cold front is timed to sweep across southeast GA and the SC
Lowcountry today, likely pushing over the adjacent Atlantic
waters by 0Z. The KCHS and KJZI TAFs will feature TEMPOs between
19-22Z for showers, with TSRA at KCHS. At KSAV, PROB30 at 19 to
21Z for showers. By 23Z, the cold front is expected to push
east of the terminals, resulting in light winds veering from
the NW.


Extended Aviation Outlook: Can`t rule out an MVFR stratus deck
developing behind the cold frontal passage overnight into Saturday
morning. VFR conditions expected for the rest of the weekend into
early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Ahead of a weak cold front, southerly winds will become
southwesterly throughout the morning hours, with a few gusts
possible into the upper teens. Can`t rule out an isolated shower or
two this morning, though the better chances for isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms arrive later this afternoon into
the evening hours. There is a chance we could see a thunderstorm or
two that could produce gusty winds, so a special marine warning or
two is possible later today.

The cold front pushes through this evening into the overnight
period, bringing a switch to northeasterly winds overnight becoming
northerly by Saturday morning. Wind gusts to near 20 knots are
possible across the local waters, especially in the offshore (20-
60nm off the coast) zones, with waves building to 4 to 5 foot
throughout the day. Unless things drastically change, not expecting
a Small Craft Advisory at this time. Northeasterly winds continue
into Sunday before decreasing into Monday, with no marine hazards
expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

November 6:
KCXM: 81/2003
KSAV: 86/2018

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

APT/NED