North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

159
FXUS62 KCHS 191813
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
213 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Breezy with isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms
  today.

- 2) A fairly typical summertime pattern is expected for the
  weekend into next week with daily shower and thunderstorm
  chances. Hot and humid conditions are likely Monday and
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Breezy with isolated afternoon and evening
thunderstorms today.

Regional radar composite has indicated a band of thunderstorms just
south of the Altamaha River, with stratiform rain and isolated
thunderstorms across SE GA into this afternoon. Corfidi vectors
indicate that the convection should remain on a track to the SE,
keeping the heaviest convection just south of the CWA. The majority
of stratiform rain may slide over the nearshore waters by mid-
afternoon. Mid to late afternoon temperatures may peak in the upper
80s across SE GA to around 90 across the SC Lowcountry. SPC
mesoanalysis indicates that instability will increase across the
forecast area this afternoon, with SBCAPE between 3000-3500 J/kg and
MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. At least isolated showers and thunderstorm
should develop during the heat of the afternoon, remaining until
around sunset this evening. The 12Z run of the HREF indicates that a
cluster of thunderstorms may just west of Lake Marion this evening,
then tracking east, possibly passing over portions of Berkeley and
Charleston Counties late this evening. This late evening round of
convection will likely be triggered by an approaching cold front.

The rest of the night should remain generally dry. Gradually cooling
llvl thickness are forecast following the slow moving cold front.
Low temperatures are forecast to range from the low 70s inland to
the mid 70s along the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A fairly typical summertime pattern is expected for
the weekend into next week with daily shower and thunderstorm
chances. Hot and humid conditions are likely Monday and Tuesday.

A front in the vicinity on Saturday will eventually wash out, with
the region to become positioned between high pressure offshore and
an approaching cold front Monday into Tuesday. Aloft, a series of
weak disturbances will cross the Southeast, before larger scale
troughing possibly settles into the eastern CONUS. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each day, with
coverage peaking in the afternoon and evenings when instability is
highest. The threat for organized severe weather is low, but cannot
rule out a couple strong to severe storms this time of year,
especially early next week.

Hot and humid conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday. High
temperatures should peak in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices
potentially reaching the 105-110F range, particularly along the
coastal counties. NWS HeatRisk also shows a Major Risk (level 3/4)
in these locations. We will need to watch the potential for Heat
Advisories.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Prior to the 18Z TAFs, KCLX detected the ragged back end of a large
area of stratiform rainfall tracking across KSAV. Light rain may
push east of the KSAV terminal by 20Z. Otherwise, a period or two of
MVFR ceilings will remain possible across the terminals through late
this afternoon. Southwest winds are forecast to remain around 10 kts
with gusts between 15-20 kts through the rest of the daylight hours.
After midnight, a backdoor cold front will approach KCHS and KJZI,
possibly bringing another round of restrictive ceilings and winds
veering from the northwest. Once the front push south, winds should
shift from the northeast and ceilings should improve to VFR.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief periods of flight restrictions
possible with any showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Following recent observation trends, the Gale Warning for
the SC waters will end at 2 PM. Small Craft Advisories will remain
for the CHS Harbor, GA nearshore, and lower SC nearshore until 5 PM.
The Outer GA and the Charleston County nearshore through 8 PM. A
backdoor cold front is forecast to push south across the waters late
tonight, shifting winds from the northwest. Seas will subside
through the night, reaching 2 to 3 ft by daybreak Saturday.

Saturday through Wednesday: No marine concerns are expected
over the weekend. The coastal waters will become positioned
between high pressure centered well offshore and an approaching
cold front Monday and Tuesday, leading to increasing winds.
Gusts could approach 25 knots at times especially in the
afternoons, but looks fairly marginal for Small Craft Advisories
at this time. Conditions should stay below advisory levels on
Wednesday.

Rip Currents: Swells and gusty winds will lead to a Moderate
risk for rip currents at South Carolina beaches Friday.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ340-
     362-364.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ360-
     384.

&&

$$

ETM/NED