North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

486
FXUS62 KCHS 271046
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
646 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Breezy and dry conditions across the forecast area today.

- 2) Minor coastal flooding is possible with the evening high
  tide cycle along the southeast South Carolina coast.

- 3) Rain chances will increase from midweek through the
  weekend, though no significant impacts are expected at this
  time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Breezy and dry conditions across the forecast
area today.

High pressure will continue to build into the area early this
morning resulting in breezy northeast flow even in the pre-dawn
hours. As the day progresses, the gradient will relax and the
northeast flow will gradually diminish. Accompanying the
northeast surge is a solid blanket of low stratus that will
result in cloudy conditions through the morning. However, by
midday the stratus should start to scatter out and yield plenty
of sun for the afternoon. Temperatures will be below normal for
the day, with low to mid 70s across southeast SC and mid to
upper 70s for southeast GA. The forecast is dry, but relative
humidity values aren`t expected to be too low. We should see RH
values away from the coast dip into the 30-40 percent range,
lowest across far interior southeast GA.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Minor coastal flooding is possible with the
evening high tide cycle along the southeast South Carolina
coast.

Astronomical tide levels are beginning to rise as we move
closer to the upcoming (5/1) full moon. Strong northeast flow
along the coast and across the adjacent coastal waters is
already driving tide levels higher as well, with the current
tide departure around 1.4 feet. For the evening high tide cycle,
the astronomical tide is 5.59 ft MLLW meaning that we would
need a departure of 1.41 ft to reach the minor coastal flood
threshold of 7 ft MLLW. We will continue to monitor tide trends
through the day and it is possible a Coastal Flood Advisory
could be needed for Charleston and Coastal Colleton counties.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Rain chances will increase from midweek through
the weekend, though no significant impacts are expected at this
time.

A surface low tracking across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys
could bring periods of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday. Instability remains
limited, so any thunderstorms that develop are expected to be
weak and non-severe, with low potential for significant impacts.

A second system could affect the region early this weekend,
bringing another round of rain chances. Similarly, the risk of
hazardous weather remains low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The 12z TAF period begins with low MVFR ceilings in place at
KCHS, KJZI and KSAV. A few locations nearby are also reporting
IFR ceilings, so the TAF sites could even come in with periodic
IFR ceilings for the next couple of hours. Model guidance
continues to favor ceilings scattering out and conditions
returning to VFR somewhere in the 17-19z time period. Northeast
winds will remain elevated as well through much of the period,
with more persistent gusts into the 15-20 knot range at KJZI.
Winds will diminish a bit by the afternoon and then turn more
easterly with time.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Showers and isolated thunderstorms
associated with a cold front could bring flight restrictions
Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through tonight: A solid northeast surge continues to work
southward across the local waters early this morning. We will
see solid Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions peak across the
waters through the morning, with frequent gusts into the 25-30
knot range. SCA`s remain in effect for all waters outside of
Charleston Harbor where winds should mostly top out in the 15-20
knot range. Seas are expected to mostly peak in the 4-6 ft
range across the nearshore waters and the 5-7 ft range across
the outer GA waters. Conditions should gradually improve through
the day such that the SCA`s for the southern SC waters and the
nearshore GA waters come down this afternoon. The Charleston
County waters will come down next (in the evening), followed
last by the outer GA waters which could stick around through
much of the night.

The pressure gradient over the local waters will weaken Tuesday
as high pressure weakens. Conditions are expected to
deteriorate Wednesday as a cold front approaches, with
increasing likelihood of Small Craft Advisories. Winds could
gust to near 25 knots, with seas building to 3-5 ft. Another
system this weekend could bring another period of elevated winds
and seas, potentially leading to additional Small Craft
Advisories.

Rip Currents: The combination of strong northeast winds and
elevated seas will result in a Moderate Risk of rip currents at
all beaches today.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ360.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ362-
     364.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ384.

&&

$$

BRS/BSH