North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

224
FXUS62 KCHS 092340
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
640 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Aviation Section was updated to reflect the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures expected this week.
  Colder conditions this weekend.

- 2) Frost/freeze conditions are possible Friday night through
  Sunday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures
expected this week. Colder conditions this weekend.

Tonight: It will be another cool dry night for Southeast
Georgia and the South Carolina Lowcountry as high pressure
maintains its influence on the region. Similar to the past few
nights, the boundary layer will decouple quickly after sunset
yielding calm to light/variable winds. Model cross sections and
simulated satellite imagery suggest some high clouds will
traverse the area at times, but mostly clear skies should
prevail in general. This will result in another night of modest
to locally strong radiational cooling and 11/13z NBM lows were
nudged down to the colder side of the guidance, blending in some
of the higher resolution RRFS, H3R and RAP hourly temperature
data to better align with known mesoscale influences. For
example, the Francis Marion National Forest, the Santee-Cooper
lakes, the open areas of Fort Stewart and areas adjacent to
larger waterways such as Charleston Harbor, the Broad River and
the Savannah River.

Another round of shallow ground is possible, especially over
parts of the Charleston Tri-County. The fog could remain fairly
shallow with 1000 hPa condensation pressure deficits remaining
some unfavorable for dense fog develop. However, the fog could
lift enough just before daybreak to yield about a 2-4 hour
period of reduced visibilities, possibly impacting parts of the
Charleston Metro Area per latest REFS and NBM visibility
probabilities.

Tuesday through Friday: Conditions remain quiet Tuesday into
Wednesday as broad high pressure gradually shifts offshore.
Nights will be generally dominated by some degree of radiational
influences within a calm/light wind regime, but there is
uncertainty in the degree of high clouds that will spread out
across the Southeast U.S. and Deep South ahead of the weakening
upper low over northern Mexico as it shears out. This could have
an impact on how cool overnight lows will get as radiative
processes could be disrupted depending on cirrus thickness.
Overall, seasonable temperatures are likely, highs in the mid-
upper 70s with lows in the mid-upper 40s inland/near 60 at the
beaches.

A potent northern stream shortwave will dig across the Northern
Plains Tuesday and gradually phase with a broader upper-level
cyclone over eastern Canada to produce a deep long-wave trough
across the eastern CONUS into the weekend. A strong cold front
is poised to cross the area late Thursday afternoon/evening
bringing significantly cooler weather to the region. A westerly
low-level flow will limit both Gulf and Atlantic moisture
return ahead of the front which will curtail the rainfall
potential despite modest UVVs associated with the favorable
alignment of both the polar and subtropical jets and the passing
of a shortwave embedded in the increasingly cyclonic flow
aloft. NBM pops were limited to 20% or less which looks
reasonable. Highs will warm well into the 70s Thursday then cool
to into the lower 60s for Friday.


KEY MESSAGE 2: Frost/freeze conditions are possible Friday
night through Sunday night.

It is becoming increasingly likely that the first frost/freeze
event of the season will impact the South Carolina Lowcountry
and Southeast Georgia beginning Friday night and continuing into
Sunday night as cold high pressure builds into the region.
Temperatures are expected to fall into the mid 30s inland Friday
night with lingering post frontal cold air advection, but winds
look to remain too elevated and the airmass too dry to support
much in the way of frost. Strong radiational cooling is expected
both Saturday and Sunday nights with high pressure overhead and
this is when the risk for freezing temperatures and frost will
be at its highest, especially inland away from the beaches.

11/13z NBM 10km neighborhood probabilities for emergency
management warming shelter planning:

Friday Night/Saturday Morning:
                              Inland Areas    Coastal Corridor
Temps 35 degrees or colder:      30-70%            5-10%
Temps 32 degrees or colder:      10-30%            <5%
Temps 30 degrees or colder:      5-10%             <5%

Saturday Night/Sunday Morning:
                              Inland Areas    Coastal Corridor
Temps 35 degrees or colder:      60-80%            20-40%
Temps 32 degrees or colder:      30-60%            5-10%
Temps 30 degrees or colder:      10-30%            <5%

Sunday Night/Monday Morning:
                              Inland Areas    Coastal Corridor
Temps 35 degrees or colder:      20-40%            10-20%
Temps 32 degrees or colder:      10-20%            5-10%
Temps 30 degrees or colder:      5-10%             <5%


Frost Advisories, Freeze Watches and Freeze Warnings may
eventually be needed, especially for areas roughly inland of
US-17 in the Lowcountry and I-95 in Southeast Georgia.

Detailed information on first freeze dates for the area can be
found online at:
https://www.weather.gov/media/chs/climate/AverageFirstLastFreezeDates.pdf

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS/KJZI: There is a risk for shallow ground fog early
Tuesday. The fog could remain fairly shallow, but may yield some
reductions, especially at KJZI 10-12z. The fog will quickly
dissipate after daybreak. VFR otherwise.

KSAV: VFR. Low end risk for some brief shallow ground fog just
before daybreak.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Moderate risk for vsbys reductions
Tuesday night from shallow ground fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface High pressure will continue across the Southeast U.S.
through Wednesday, bringing a light to perhaps gentle breeze.
Seas will be 2-3 ft within 20 NM and 3-4 ft for the 20-60 NM
waters. Winds increase out of the southwest Thursday ahead of an
approaching cold front, becoming gusty to near 30 knots.
Likewise, wind-driven seas will build. Small Craft Advisories
will likely be needed. Winds shift to become out of the west-
northwest overnight into Friday, with gusts to near 30 knots
continuing throughout the day. There is even a low-end risk for
gales over the offshore legs, mainly Thursday night.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$