North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

100
FXUS62 KCHS 251047
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
647 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation section was updated to refelect the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday.

- 2) Unsettled weather with the potential for locally heavy
  rainfall continues mid to late this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
Tuesday.

Overall yet another tricky forecast today as conditions look to
be fairly similar to the last two days. The only main difference
between Tuesday and the last two is that moisture will continue
to steadily increase compared to Monday and Sunday. As a
result, confidence in convective coverage is slightly increased
compared to the last few days. Best chances for storms looks to
be across Georgia and the immediate coastline of South Carolina
during the late afternoon with some remnant drier air in
subsidence possibly keeping storms more isolated to scattered
closer to Charleston and the tri-county area. MLCAPE values are
expected to climb to around 2000-2500 J/kg across the area
which is a tick lower than the past few days. With rather deep
moist profiles, today should feel more like a standard summer
afternoon as storms will likely need to cluster up and have a
few boundary collisions to really get strong to severe. However,
like most summer afternoons we do expect at least a couple
clusters to develop and a few strong to severe wind gusts
cannot be ruled out. This appears to be true for areas across
coastal Georgia including the Savannah metro area. Also much
like any summer day, PWATS are expected to be in the 2 to 2.1
inch range which would be enough to support rather heavy rain
rates with the strongest of storms. IF any of the clusters are
able to linger around for more than 30 min to an hour on the
wrong metro area, then some minor flooding concerns could arise.



KEY MESSAGE 2: Unsettled weather with the potential for locally
heavy rainfall continues mid to late this week.

Upper level trough holds tight across the Ohio River Valley, with a
series of shortwaves progged to graze the region through the end of
the week. Meanwhile, at the sfc, will see a stationary front linger
across the SE CONUS before a stronger cold front advances over the
weekend. As noted in the previous discussion, there is ample
moisture to work with, as PWATs near 2 inches, which is above normal
for this time of year. This combined with regional and mesoscale
lift along the aforementioned boundaries will yield daily chances
for showers and thunderstorms. While most guidance agrees that
convection will be diurnally driven and isolated to scattered in
nature, overall confidence in exact location still remains fairly
poor. Thus, further refinements to the forecast are expected in the
coming shifts as model consistency improves. In regard to severe
weather, can`t rule out seeing a few strong to severe thunderstorms
capable of producing damaging winds and lightning. However, think
the main hazard to watch for will be heavy rainfall - given the
stationary front in place. Slow moving, training, or back building
storms are favorable in these setups, which could result in
localized flooding or flash flooding, especially in urban or low-
lying areas.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
25/12z TAFs: VFR conditions should persist through the morning
with light southwesterly winds. Expect shower and thunderstorm
activity to increase once again along the slowly moving
seabreeze during the afternoon. Confidence in thunderstorms
appears highest around KSAV from 19Z to 22Z with lower
confidence at JZI and CHS. As a result, carried the TEMPO group
at KSAV given the higher confidence in coverage and a PROB30
group at KJZI AND KCHS for lower confidence in coverage. Storms
should subside by the evening as conditions return to VFR.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms could bring
brief flight restrictions each afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: Winds should relax some during the day with southwesterly
winds around 5 to 10 knots becoming easterly during the late
afternoon and early evening hours. Wave heights are forecast to
remain between 2 to 3 ft.


Wednesday through Saturday: South/southwesterly winds continue
through the period, with winds averaging 15 knots or less and seas 2
to 3 feet. While Small Craft Advisories are not expected at this
time, do want to highlight that any showers or thunderstorms moving
over the waters will be capable of producing higher gusts and
frequent lightning.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Black/SST