North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

489
FXUS62 KCHS 251901
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
301 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A cold front will push across southeast Georgia and the
  South Carolina Lowcountry tonight into Sunday, bringing
  increased rain chances.

- 2) Dry conditions return early next week, with temperatures
  building back to near normal. Chances for rain increase on
  Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front will push across southeast Georgia
and the South Carolina Lowcountry tonight into Sunday, bringing
increased rain chances.

The mid-levels will consist of shortwave energy moving overhead
this evening, followed by another shortwave passing just to our
north Sunday afternoon. At the surface, a cold front is
approaching from the northwest, and will continue to move closer
tonight. There is a decent plume of moisture ahead of this
front, with PWATs increasing into the 1.25-1.5" range this
evening overnight. The combination of the shortwave energy, lift
from the front, and the increasing moisture will result in
increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage. Both the CAMs and
the synoptic models have convection forming along the sea breeze
late this afternoon and moving inland, while additional
convection associated with the front will form inland and shift
towards the coast. We`re only expecting isolated to scattered
coverage late this afternoon, with scattered coverage this
evening and overnight. Models and SPC Mesoscale Analysis point
towards minimal instability. Therefore, the severe threat is
very low. But there could be some rumbles of thunder. While
locations directly impacted by passing showers and thunderstorms
could see rainfall amounts of a 0.25" or more, overall rainfall
will be quite variable.

By Sunday morning, the front will extend across the Carolina
Midlands and into central Georgia, gradually pushing toward the
coast through the day. The higher PWATs will be offshore. This
will lead to scattered showers across our area during the
afternoon, then decreasing into the evening. Dry conditions
return Sunday night, when High pressure builds in from the
north.

While any rainfall will be beneficial, this system is not
expected to provide significant relief from the ongoing drought.
Most areas should receive between 0.1-0.25". A few inland
locations could see up to around 0.5", particularly where the
front slows and convection becomes more concentrated. However,
given the isolated to scattered nature of the convection, some
areas could receive little to no measurable rainfall.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Dry conditions return early next week, with
temperatures building back to near normal. Chances for rain
increase on Wednesday.

As upper level ridging builds behinds the exiting disturbance,
surface high pressure extends down the east coast Monday into
Tuesday. This will bring the return of dry weather, with high
temperatures starting in the mid 70s to lower 80s on Monday, rising
a bit into the upper 70s to mid 80s on Tuesday. The surface pressure
gradient will be increased as the surface high strengthens and
brings breezy northeast winds on Monday. Lowest relative humidity
values (~35-40%) are expected for inland areas, though we`ll have to
see how wetting the weekend rainfall ends up being before
determining the fire danger threat for Monday. The pressure gradient
relaxes on Tuesday as the surface high pressure weakens and dives
southeastwards, leading to less breezy conditions as winds switch to
become out of the southwest.

As the aforementioned cold front stalls off to our west on Tuesday,
can`t fully rule out some decaying showers/thunderstorms moving into
our well inland counties during the late afternoon hours, but most
look to remain dry. The main shortwave begins to move across the
region during the early morning hours Wednesday, with the cold front
following behind continuing rain chances throughout the day. While
the deterministic models aren`t showing renewed chances for rain on
Thursday, ensemble (and clustering) solutions suggest rain chances
continue Thursday. Clustering sensitivity analysis reveals the
uncertainties revolve on the strength and positioning of the trough
moving through, so expect that to be refined with additional model
runs.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z TAFs: Mainly VFR. There should be an increase in shower and
thunderstorm activity late this afternoon as the sea breeze
forms and moves inland, and a cold front approaches from the
northwest. We maintained VCHS for the most likely time period.
Amendments may be needed based on radar trends. The
thunderstorms potential remains low. Shower activity should
dissipate by the Sunday early morning hours.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Showers and isolated thunderstorms
associated with a cold front could bring reduced vsbys/cigs Sunday
and possibly again midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: A cold front will approach from the west. S winds in
the evening will veer to the SSW after midnight, maintaining 10-15
kts. Seas will be 2-3 ft.

Sunday - Monday: The cold front continues to push through the
region leading to increased chances for showers and
thunderstorms throughout the day. Winds will be variable in
strength and direction throughout the day as the cold front
pushes offshore, with a surface high pressure building in from
the north Sunday night bringing a switch to north-northeasterly
winds along with dry conditions. A period of small craft level
winds (sustained winds 20+ knots and/or gusts 25+ knots) are
expected starting very early morning Monday expanding
southwards, likely accompanied by 5-6 ft waves (~20nm+ out to
sea), with conditions weakening throughout the afternoon as the
pressure gradient begins to weakens.

Tuesday - Wednesday: The pressure gradient further relaxes on
Tuesday as the surface high pressure weakens and dives
southeastwards, leading to less breezy easterly winds which
further swing to become out of the southwest overnight into
Wednesday. Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms
return Wednesday afternoon as an upper level disturbance moves
through.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

APT