North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

082
FXUS62 KCHS 101045
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
645 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Locally dense fog will be possible across inland areas
  this morning.

- 2) Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to
  impact portions of southeast Georgia and southeast South
  Carolina each day through the upcoming weekend.

- 3) The potential for coastal flooding will persist into
  Friday, primarily for portions of the southeast South Carolina
  coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Locally dense fog will be possible across inland
areas this morning.

Light to calm winds and ample low-level moisture should allow
for fog development this morning. The best chance of locally
dense fog will be generally inland of I-95, especially interior
southeast GA including Screven, Effingham, Jenkins, Bulloch,
Candler, Evans, Tattnall, and inland portions of
Bryan/Liberty/Long. In this area, the 10/00z HREF suggests
30-50% probabilities of visibility less than 0.5 miles. Dense
Fog Advisories could eventually be needed.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue to impact portions of southeast Georgia and southeast
South Carolina each day through the upcoming weekend.

Today: Early this morning, surface analysis shows the coastal
trough is still hanging on just off the coast. This is driving
scattered shower development over the coastal waters that is
trying to push onshore along the Charleston County coast. The
setup will change from the past few days as the surface high
drifts further out over the subtropical Atlantic, washing out
the coastal trough. The forecast area will then sit under the
western periphery of the subtropical high in a very typical
summertime setup. We then expect to see a progressive diurnal
sea breeze with convection initiating along it in the early
afternoon. Coverage should be scattered and steadily push inland
through the mid to late afternoon hours. Overall, the near
storm environment isn`t particularly noteworthy with weak flow
through the column and MLCAPE values in the 1,500- 2,000 J/kg
range. Model soundings do show DCAPE values upwards of 1,000
J/kg which could support an isolated damaging wind threat. Also,
precipitable water values will be in excess of 2 inches and
with storm motion no more than 10 knots, there could be some
locally heavy rainfall. Showers and thunderstorms should come to
an end through the evening with the loss of surface heating.

Friday through Sunday: As upper-lvl shortwave energy traverses
through the Southeast, southerly flow will continue to transport
rich moisture into the region on Friday through the weekend.
Expect PWATs to reach above 2.0 inches and support efficient
rainfall rates through the weekend. This pattern will yield
scattered showers and thunderstorms each day, especially during
the afternoon and evening hours. With abundant moisture combined
with weak steering flow, thunderstorms will be capable of
producing very heavy rainfall over short periods, and slow-
moving cells could lead to localized flooding where storms
repeatedly affect the same areas. Friday should feature
scattered afternoon storms, with Saturday seeing greater
coverage, while Sunday looks similar with another round of
mainly afternoon and convection. A widespread severe threat
seems unlikely through this period, however afternoon
instability (peak SBCAPE values of ~2000-2500 J/kg) could yield
frequent lightning and damaging wind gusts within the stronger
storms that develop. Overall, the main concern through the
weekend will be localized heavy rainfall, leading to minor
flooding issues within low-lying and poor drainage areas.

KEY MESSAGE 3: The potential for coastal flooding will persist
into Friday, primarily for portions of the southeast South
Carolina coast.

Astronomical tide levels have peaked with this previous
evening`s high tide, but will remain elevated into Friday. This
could support minor coastal flooding along the southeast South
Carolina coast during the next 1-2 evening high tide cycles
given recent positive tidal departures that will be slow to
change while winds weaken and turn more southerly. This
evening`s high tide should see the best chance for reaching
above 7.0 FT MLLW in the Charleston Harbor before conditions
improve further. A Coastal Flood Advisory could eventually be
needed.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The 12z TAF period begins with mostly VFR conditions at and
near KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV. There remains some concern for low
stratus and/or fog to impact KSAV for a couple of hours this
morning. So far, most of the fog and stratus has remained inland
of KSAV, but it could still spread in. We have maintained a
TEMPO group to account for IFR stratus with MVFR visibility
through 13z. The next forecast concern continues to be afternoon
thunderstorms. Current thinking is that storms will develop
along the sea breeze starting around midday or the early
afternoon. At KCHS and KSAV, we have introduced VCTS around
16-17z with a PROB30 group for a few hours through 19-20z to
account for thunderstorm impacts. At KJZI, current thinking is
that development along the sea breeze will be inland of the
terminal and there is no mention of thunderstorm impacts there.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Periodic flight restrictions will be
possible each day through the weekend within showers and
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through tonight: Light south winds in the 5-10 knot range
will prevail this morning before surging more into the 10-15
knot range this afternoon and evening. Overnight, winds will
remain 10-15 knots while turning more out of the southwest. Seas
are expected to average 2-3 feet.

Friday through Monday: Generally tranquil marine conditions
should continue on Friday through early next week, with winds
mostly 5 to 10 kts as high pressure remains the dominant feature
across the Atlantic. Southwest winds are expected on Friday,
becoming more southerly to southwesterly through the weekend
before turning westerly around 5 kts on Monday. The main concern
for mariners will be scattered showers and thunderstorms, with
the greatest coverage likely Friday afternoon through Saturday
and additional storms possible on Sunday and Monday. Any
stronger storm could produce frequent lightning, heavy rain with
reduced visibility, and brief gusts well above prevailing
winds. Seas will range from 2-3 ft through the period.

Rip Currents: Lingering swell and the light onshore flow
supports a Moderate Risk for rip currents along all beaches
today, before conditions improve to a Low Risk on Friday.
Beachgoers should swim near a lifeguard and heed local beach
patrol guidance.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

BSH/Dennis