North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

905
FXUS62 KCHS 231826
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
226 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Dry conditions and below normal temperatures will continue
  into early next week.

- 2) A significant multi-day coastal flooding event is expected
  this weekend through at least the middle of next week.

- 3) Strong northeast flow this weekend and into early next week
  will result in several coastal hazards including rip currents,
  high surf, and beach erosion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry conditions and below normal temperatures
will continue into early next week.

Rest of Today and Tonight: Strong high pressure centered to the
north of the Great Lakes will dominate through the remainder of
today and through tonight. A strong mid-level shortwave trough was
analyzed on this morning`s 12Z 500mb analysis from the SPC. This
feature will help keep temperatures slightly cooler than yesterday,
with highs generally in the low to mid 70s away from the beaches.
The pressure gradient will begin to quickly tighten tonight as low
pressure begins to organize east of the Southern Bahamas and the
strong high pressure wedges south across the Carolinas and Georgia.
An uptick in winds is expected tonight, with breezy conditions
developing at the beaches and around the Santee-Cooper lakes.
Despite clear skies, the elevated winds will yield a warmer night in
comparison to previous nights this week with lows ranging from the
upper 40/lower 50s inland to around 60 at the beaches. Some mid 40s
could occur, mainly in the Jenkins- Allendale corridor where winds
will be the lightest.

Saturday through Thursday: Surface high pressure will extend across
the region through late next week. Over the weekend, the high will
strengthen inland while a coastal trough develops offshore.
The air mass will remain quite dry. The pattern will support a rain-
free forecast through at least early next week. Despite plenty of
sunshine, temperatures will lean on the cooler side of normal, owing
to the persistent NE flow. Highs will top out in the lower to mid
70s for the weekend and early next week. Low temperatures will fall
into the 40s across many interior locations.


KEY MESSAGE 2: A significant multi-day coastal flooding event is
expected this weekend through at least the middle of next week.

Astronomical tides will continue to rise through the weekend and
into next week due to the upcoming full moon (10/26) and the lunar
perigee (10/28). Large tidal departures are already ongoing, and
with an extended period of strong northeast flow this weekend and
into next week, these departures will increase in magnitude. The
combination of the highest astronomical tides of the year and
persistent strong northeast flow will result in a multi-day moderate
to major coastal flooding event for the entire southeast GA/SC
coast.

Upcoming evening high tide (~6:45 pm): Minor coastal flooding will
likely occur at Charleston with the evening high tide cycle. The
astronomical high tide is 5.79 ft MLLW and we are currently running
a 1.2-1.3 ft departure as we head into the preceding low tide. We
currently expect high tide to peak in the 7.0-7.2 ft MLLW range, and
a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for Charleston and coastal
Colleton counties. There are no coastal flooding concerns at Fort
Pulaski.

Over the weekend and into the middle of next week, there is
increasing potential for multiple rounds of moderate to major
coastal flooding at Charleston and minor to moderate coastal
flooding at Fort Pulaski. The highest water levels are expected to
occur with the Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday morning high tide
cycles. During these cycles, confidence is increasing that
Charleston will exceed major flood stage (8.0 ft MLLW) and Fort
Pulaski will exceed moderate flood stage (10.0 ft MLLW). There is
even concern that Fort Pulaski could reach or exceed its major flood
stage (10.5 ft MLLW), which has never happened in its history
(records begin in 1935) outside of a tropical system. Coastal
flooding will likely occur with both the morning and evening high
cycles for several days, though the evening tide will be the lower
of the two. Coastal Flood Advisories will definitely be needed, and
Coastal Flood Watches/Warnings are very likely for some or all of
the coast from Sunday through Wednesday.


KEY MESSAGE 3: Strong northeast flow this weekend and into early
next week will result in several coastal hazards including rip
currents, high surf, and beach erosion.

Rip Currents: Strong northeast winds and increased wave action will
support a period of enhanced rip current risk this weekend. A
Moderate Risk for rip currents remains along all beaches this
afternoon, followed by a High Risk for all beaches Saturday, and
likely again for all beaches on Sunday. An enhanced period of rip
currents will likely continue into early next week.

High Surf: Breaking wave heights of 5 ft or higher will be possible
this weekend into early next week and High Surf Advisories should be
needed. The greatest risk for high surf should occur along the GA
coast, where persistent/gusty northeast winds are more directly
onshore Saturday afternoon into Monday. The combination of elevated
tides, increased wave action, and the persistent/gusty northeast
winds will likely produce beach erosion as well, with the most
significant impacts occurring around high tide cycles this
weekend.

Lake Wind: Gusty northeast winds will pick up across Lake Moultrie
and persist through the weekend. There is a chance that winds could
gust up to 25 knots early Saturday morning through around 8 AM
Saturday, supported by the HREF. However, given the short duration
and low confidence have opted to not issue a Lake Wind Advisory with
this afternoon`s forecast package. Winds over the lake through most
of the day on Saturday will generally be gusting around 15-20 mph.
After sunset Saturday, the pattern flips and winds will rapidly pick
up as cold air advection occurs over the warmer lake waters. This
will trigger strong mixing, dragging 30 kt wind gusts down to the
lake surface. A Lake Wind Advisory will likely be needed starting
Saturday night. The combination of steady northeast winds and 2-3 ft
waves could yield lakeshore erosion along the southwest side of the
lake along with some overwash. This is includes areas from roughly
Pinopolis to Blacks Camp near Cross.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR through the 18Z TAF period. Gusty NE winds will develop at
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV on Saturday, gusting upwards of 25 knots.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Breezy northerly winds anticipated at
CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through Monday morning. Gusts could reach 25-
30 kt, especially during the afternoon hours Saturday and Sunday.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through Tuesday: High pressure will continue to
strengthen across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states while
low pressure develops east/north of the Bahamas this weekend.
The setup favors a strong pressure gradient across local waters
with marine conditions rapidly deteriorating tonight. Winds/seas
will substantially increase during the weekend, likely reaching
Small Craft Advisory levels for a period this evening, before
gales are prevalent. Gale Watches have been upgraded to Gale
Warnings for offshore waters starting tonight, and will likely
need to be upgraded for nearshore waters starting around
daybreak Saturday. The risk for gale force winds will remain
across nearshore and offshore waters through Monday (longest
across offshore waters). Additionally, a Small Craft Advisory is
in effect for the Charleston Harbor, starting overnight tonight
and persisting into Monday. Winds and seas start to trend lower
late Monday into Tuesday, but Small Craft Advisory level
conditions could persist across local waters outside the
Charleston Harbor through the middle of next week.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for SCZ149-
     150.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Monday for
     AMZ340.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ360-362-364.
     Gale Watch from Saturday morning through late Sunday night for
     AMZ360-362-364.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Monday for
     AMZ380-382.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ384.

&&

$$

BSH/CPM/DPB