North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

213
FXUS62 KCHS 251135
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
735 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Aviation Section has been updated to reflect the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Locally heavy rainfall is possible today as a stalled
  front remains in the vicinity of the SC Lowcountry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Locally heavy rainfall is possible today as a
stalled front remains in the vicinity of the SC Lowcountry.

A stalled cold front can be analyzed just to the NW of the local
forecast area. Aloft, the region will remain positioned along
the southern periphery of a mid-level trough along the Eastern
Seaboard. Convection today will again be driven by both the
stalled front and the sea breeze. The 00Z HRRR, 3 km NAM, and
the RRFS indicate that convection could be a little slow to
develop, with the bulk of activity occurring this evening. This
is likely due to these models depicting a pinned sea breeze,
struggling to progress inland until later in the afternoon.
Heavy rainfall will be possible today, with PWATs forecast to
surge upwards of 2.5". It is worth noting that the 00Z KCHS RAOB
Sounding had a PWAT of 2.36". Additionally, forecast soundings
show tall, skinny CAPE profiles with around 1000-2000 J/kg of
CAPE. Models continue to paint the heaviest rainfall threat
exists along the immediate coast, with the 00Z HREF showing 10%
probability of 3" in 3 hours along the coastline this evening.
The SC coastline will likely see the highest rainfall totals,
given the proximity to the stalled front. The Weather
Prediction Center continues to advertise a Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall today across the SC Lowcountry and a Marginal
Risk elsewhere. While there is a threat of stationary/training
storms, forecast soundings show that storm motions should be
greater than on Friday. Rainfall amounts across the SC
Lowcountry are forecast to be 1 to 2 inches, with locally
higher amounts.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR to start the 12Z TAF period at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV.
Showers/tstorms will likely bring temporary restrictions to
KCHS/KJZI this afternoon/evening, reflected in the TEMPO group
at both terminals. Confidence in impacts to KSAV is lower, with
the tstorm threat conveyed within a PROB30 group at that
terminal.

Extended Aviation Outlook: A stationary front nearby will
continue to bring periods of flight restrictions through Sunday
due to showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through Thursday: A stationary front nearby will bring
southwesterly winds today. Winds will briefly veer to the north
and northeast on Sunday, then again Monday morning, followed by
a shift to the southeast Monday afternoon. Winds will become
elevated Tuesday night into Wednesday and Small Craft Advisories
may be needed for portions of the local waters.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 25:
KCHS: 80/2011
KCXM: 82/2016
KSAV: 80/1893

July 29:
KCHS: 80/2016

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$