North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

714
FXUS62 KCHS 101822
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
122 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All sections were updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will continue
  through Thursday.

- 2) Frost/freeze conditions are possible Friday night through
  Sunday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry conditions and above normal temperatures
will continue through Thursday.

Dry high pressure will prevail across the area Wednesday before
being forced eastward as a cold front approaches the area
Wednesday night and Thursday. Currently, model consensus on the
timing of the front suggests that it will begin pushing through
the forecast area Thursday afternoon and should shift offshore
Thursday evening. The result will be well above normal
temperatures each day before the coolest air of the season so
far filters in for the late week and the weekend. Wednesday
highs are forecast to reach the upper 70s, with similar values
for Thursday. Lows will trend upward as well, with upper 40s and
low 50s Wednesday morning and mid to upper 50s Thursday
morning.

Wednesday afternoon, a mid-level southern stream shortwave will
move quickly across the Deep South and towards the forecast
area in the afternoon. Hi-res models suggest this could be
enough forcing to produce an area of light showers that could
move into our southeast GA zones. However, a closer perusal of
soundings reveals mostly mid- level moisture with substantial
dry air below about 600 mb. Therefore, if this area of showers
comes to fruition essentially no measurable rainfall is
expected. Also of note, as the front moves in on Thursday we
should see breezy conditions due to the combination of
tightening pressure gradient, deep diurnal mixing, and the onset
of cold-air advection. Frequent gusts into the 25-30 mph range
can be expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Frost/freeze conditions are possible Friday
night through Sunday night.

Friday: Notably cooler temperatures return heading into the
weekend in the wake of a departing cold front. After a brisk
start in the 40s to 50s, should see highs warm into the low to
mid 60s across the region. West-northwestly winds will also be
fairly breezy during this time, with gusts between 20 to 25 mph
- so you may still want a grab a jacket before heading out.

Cold air advection continues to surge throughout the overnight
period, which may prompt our first frost formation of the
season. That being said, wind speeds are still expected to
remain high enough to keep the overall concern on the lower end
for now. Our best chances for seeing frost look to occur Sunday
morning, thanks to clear skies, light winds, and efficient
radiational cooling. Otherwise, could see one more round of
frost/freeze return Monday morning as cold temperatures linger.

Nov 10 13z NBM 10km neighborhood probabilities for emergency
management warming shelter planning:

Friday Night/Saturday Morning:
                              Inland Areas    Coastal Corridor
Temps 35 degrees or colder:      20-50%             <5%
Temps 32 degrees or colder:       5-10%             <5%
Temps 30 degrees or colder:         <5%             <5%

Saturday Night/Sunday Morning:
                              Inland Areas    Coastal Corridor
Temps 35 degrees or colder:      60-80%          10-30%
Temps 32 degrees or colder:      20-40%              5%
Temps 30 degrees or colder:      10-30%             <5%

Sunday Night/Monday Morning:
                              Inland Areas    Coastal Corridor
Temps 35 degrees or colder:      20-50%           5-10%
Temps 32 degrees or colder:      10-20%             <5%
Temps 30 degrees or colder:       5-10%             <5%

Frost Advisories, Freeze Watches and Freeze Warnings may
eventually be needed, especially for areas roughly inland of
US-17 in the Lowcountry and I-95 in Southeast Georgia.

Detailed information on first freeze dates for the area can be
found online at:
https://www.weather.gov/media/chs/climate/AverageFirstLastFreezeDates.pdf

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV
through 18z Wednesday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail, with
westerly winds gusting up to 25 kts of ahead of an advancing
cold front Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through tonight: Modest southwest to west-southwest flow will
prevail across the local waters with speeds no more than 10-15
knots. Seas will remain in the 2-3 ft range.

Wednesday Onward: Surface high pressure will continue across
the Southeast U.S. through Wednesday, bringing a light to
perhaps gentle breeze. Seas will be 2-3 ft within 20 nm and 3-4
ft for the 20-60 nm waters. Winds increase out of the southwest
Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front, becoming gusty to
near 30 knots. Likewise, wind-driven seas will build.

Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for our waters
starting Thursday afternoon. Winds shift to become out of the
west-northwest overnight into Friday, with a brief period of
weakening winds during the morning/afternoon before wind speeds
pick up again. Winds decrease below Small Craft Thresholds
Saturday morning/afternoon, with the northwesterly winds
ushering out the 6 feet waves around the same time.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$