North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

515
FXUS62 KCHS 171825
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
225 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
All section have been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected to
  continue through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected
to continue through the weekend.

Through tonight: The forecast area will remain within zonal
flow with west-southwest flow maintaining a feed of deep
moisture. Precipitable water values will persist in the 2" range
as a result. Forcing for ascent remains quite subtle and as a
result we are only expecting to see rounds of showers and
isolated thunderstorms through the evening. In fact, the area
continues to sit within a feed of cloud cover that is keeping
temperatures in the low to mid 80s so far and limiting
instability. Therefore, most of the activity through the evening
will be just showers with only an isolated threat of a
thunderstorm. We should see shower coverage diminish greatly for
the overnight and the area should be mostly dry.

Thursday and Thursday night: This time period is likely the
most interesting due to the expected close passage of the
remnant circulation of Arthur during the evening and overnight.
Model consensus suggests that the morning and the first part of
the afternoon should be relatively quiet. Thunderstorm activity
is expected then increase from the west late in the afternoon
and through the evening as the remnant circulation shifts
through central GA and into the SC Upstate and Midlands. Though
the best forcing and greatest coverage is expected to be focused
to the northwest and north, the forecast will sit solidly on
the periphery of a threat of severe weather and heavy rainfall.
Model soundings show the potential for 30-40 knots of deep layer
shear and possibly some backing of the low-level flow depending
on the condition of the remnant circulation. Instability will
be weak, but any thunderstorms that develop in the evening
through early morning hours will need to be watched closely for
a damaging wind threat. The potential for locally heavy rainfall
will come mainly from training storms thanks to a relatively
fast storm motion. Shower and thunderstorm potential should
begin to wane as sunrise Friday approaches and the circulation
starts to pass to the east.

Also of note for Thursday will be a return of temperatures into
the low 90s. With dewpoints getting into the mid to upper 70s
along the coastal corridor, we will likely see heat index values
up to around 105 with pockets potentially up to 107-108.

Friday through Sunday: Another active day appears likely Friday
as the forecast area sits ahead of a cold front approaching
from the north. Mid-level flow will continue to be elevated,
yielding some available shear in the presence of a warm moist
and unstable environment. A few severe storms with damaging wind
gusts will be possible. The front should sag through the area
by Saturday and we expect to see a return to a more typical
summertime pattern of diurnal showers and thunderstorms for the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The 18z TAF period begins with VFR conditions at KCHS, KJZI,
and KSAV. The main concern is for showers and brief periods of
MVFR through the rest of the afternoon and into the early
evening. These showers are moving quickly so any rainfall should
be short-lived, as well as any MVFR ceilings and visibilities.
We have included TEMPO groups at all 3 sites to cover the 18-23z
time period. West- southwest winds will also be breezy, with
frequent gusts into the 18-22 knot range. Shower activity
should dissipate in the evening and conditions should be rain-
free and VFR into Thursday morning. The risk for thunderstorms
on Thursday is expected to be beyond the 18z TAF period.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions should largely
prevail through the weekend, with brief periods of flight
restrictions possible with any showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight through Friday: Gusty southwest winds are expected
across the waters through late week in between high pressure
offshore and an approaching cold front and remnants of Arthur.
While a few gusts around 25 knots are possible through tonight,
especially over the SC waters, the time period of most concern
is Thursday night into Friday when gusts reach 25-30 kts and
seas build to 4-6 feet. Small Craft Advisories have been issued
for all coastal waters outside of the Charleston Harbor (though
one will likely be needed here at some point as well). A few
gusts in the low 30 kt range are possible, but should largely
stay shy of gale force. NBM probs for gusts >34 knots is
generally 30-40%.

Saturday through Monday: Marine conditions will subside
Saturday with no additional concerns through the weekend.
Another front could approach the area on Monday, potentially
leading to increasing winds and seas.

Rip Currents: Increasing swells and gusty winds will lead to an
elevated risk of rip currents on Friday. Local rip current
calculations produce a Moderate Risk at Charleston county
beaches, with a Low elsewhere.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 18:
KCHS: 78/2015
KCXM: 81/1998

June 19:
KCHS: 79/2025
KCXM: 81/2025
KSAV: 79/1881

June 22:
KCHS: 79/2018
KSAV: 78/1937

June 23:
KCHS: 78/2024
KCXM: 82/1998
KSAV: 77/2017

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 8 PM EDT Friday for
     AMZ360.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Thursday to 8 PM EDT Friday for
     AMZ362.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM EDT Friday for AMZ364.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ384.

&&

$$

BSH/ETM