North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

083
FXUS62 KCHS 170609
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
209 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Key Message #1 and the Aviation section for the 06Z
TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
  this week within a persistent summertime pattern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue this week within a persistent summertime pattern.

Today: As weak shortwave energy tracks through moist southwesterly
flow, scattered showers and thunderstorms should persist through
this afternoon. The severe threat remains quite limited, however a
few rumbles of thunder and brief heavy downpours will be reasonable
within stronger thunderstorms. The highest PoPs will be located
across far southeast Georgia as pockets of partial sunshine could
support SBCAPE values ~1000 J/kg. Extensive cloud cover should limit
daytime heating with afternoon highs remaining in the mid to upper
80s, with a few inland locations struggling to reach into the low
80s. Activity should gradually diminish this evening, although a few
showers and thunderstorms could linger into the overnight period.
Conditions will remain warm and humid overnight with lows mainly in
the low to mid 70s.

Thursday and Friday: A relative lull precipitation is expect on
Thursday morning as the initial disturbance exits and weak ridging
briefly develops aloft. Clear skies combined with strengthening
southwesterly flow will yield afternoon temperatures in the low to
mid 90s. Heat index values could approach 100 to 105 degrees in some
locations.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will likely begin on
Thursday afternoon as anomalously high moisture from Potential
Tropical Cyclone (PTC) One will slowly migrate into the region. This
should result in numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms
though Friday evening. Severe threat remains limited at this time,
however cannot rule out an couple isolated storms becoming strong to
severe as instability increases out ahead of an advancing cold
front. Localized flooding of poor-drainage and low-lying areas will
be possible, especially where storms repeatedly track over the same
locations.

Saturday and Sunday: The aforementioned front should slide offshore
on Saturday morning as a few showers and thunderstorms linger near
the coastline. Thereafter, the typical summertime pattern will
dominate the forecast as the daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms initiating along the afternoon seabreeze return.
However, it`s important to note that coverage should be much less
than Thursday and Friday. Otherwise, afternoon highs will warm into
the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Occasional light rain will continue overnight, then the best
upper forcing will move offshore Wednesday morning. Although
there remains a chance for brief MVFR ceilings overnight, the
models have backed off on the probability, and we removed
mention from the 06Z TAFs. Convective coverage on Wednesday
looks fairly low, but the greatest chance will be at KSAV. Gusty
SW winds expected to develop by mid-morning.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions should largely
prevail through the weekend, with brief periods of flight
restrictions possible with any shower and thunderstorm
throughout the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: Breezy southwesterly winds should prevail across the local
waters with some a few gusts reaching up to 22-24 kts esp. along the
land-sea interface as the afternoon seabreeze pushes inland. Showers
and thunderstorms will remain possible through the evening, however
convection should gradually decrease overnight.

Thursday through Saturday: The pressure gradient should gradually
tighten ahead of an advancing cold front on Thursday with
southwesterly winds increasing through overnight into Friday
morning. Seas will also build from 2-4ft on Thursday night to 4-7 ft
by Friday afternoon across the South Carolina waters. The Georgia
waters will likely only build to 3-5 ft (maybe some 6 footers in the
offshore waters). Therefore, Small Craft Advisories will likely be
needed on Thursday evening into Friday night for elevated winds and
seas. As the aforementioned cold front pushes offshore on Saturday
morning, expect marine conditions to gradually improve throughout
Saturday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 18:
KCHS: 78/2015
KCXM: 81/1998

June 19:
KCHS: 79/2025
KCXM: 81/2025
KSAV: 79/1881

June 22:
KCHS: 79/2018
KSAV: 78/1937

June 23:
KCHS: 78/2024
KCXM: 82/1998
KSAV: 77/2017

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Dennis/JRL