North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

865
FXUS62 KCHS 241106
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
706 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation section updated for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Increased chances for showers and thunderstorms through
  early this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Increased chances for showers and thunderstorms through
early this week.

The forecast area will remain on the edge of a 590 dm H5 ridge
centered over the western Atlantic, and a secondary center over
southern FL today. However, SW to NE oriented heights across the
region will likely result in a weak disturbance or two to track
across the Coastal Plain of SC/GA today. The passage of a weak
disturbance seen in satellite water vapor may allow a few showers to
develop over the nearshore waters this morning, possibly tracking
onshore.

By mid day, temperatures are expected to warm into the mid to upper
80s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. SBCAPE values are forecast
to increase to around 2000 J/kg, with pockets of 2500 J/kg. Steady
SE winds should allow a sea breeze to develop during the morning
hours, then drifting inland through this afternoon. Recent runs of
the HRRR and HREF indicate that the deep convection may develop
along and ahead of the sea breeze over the I-95 corridor as early as
16Z. Coverage should increase into the early to mid afternoon hours,
however, Corfidi vectors indicate slow storm motions, generally 10
kts or less. Given PW values between 1.8-1.9 inches, slow storm
motions, and moderate instability, localized heavy rainfall is
possible with the storms inland of I-95. In fact, the 0Z HREF
highlights inland GA with another round of heavy rain this
afternoon, with a 30% of 3"/hr and a 70% of 1"/hr rainfall. It is
possible that one or two storms may develop high echo tops,
collapsing water-loaded updrafts may yield a risk of damaging wind
gusts. SPC has highlighted portions of SE GA with a Marginal Risk
for severe thunderstorms.

Memorial Day: Conditions are not expected to change much from today,
with comparable temperatures and moisture content. The sea breeze
will again be the focus for the initial thunderstorms, then coverage
should expand across inland areas. Locally heavy rainfall is
possible generally along and west of I-95.

Later this week, the ridge of high pressure off to our east
strengthens, continuing our warm and moist conditions across the
southeast United States. This is expected to bring a summer-
like pattern, with showers and thunderstorms forming daily along
an early afternoon sea breeze before expanding across inland
areas into the early evening hours, which will continue to bring
much needed rainfall to the region. Temperatures remain above
average, with daily highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and
overnight lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s, possibly resulting in
record high minimum (warm overnight low) temperatures.

As a surface low pressure moves off the northeast coast late this
week, a cold front is expected to push through the southeast region.
The trend has been for later in the week, Thursday into Friday, with
cooler high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s expected
during the later half of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z TAFs: VFR conditions expected across the terminals this morning.
Showers may track onshore for develop along a early forming sea
breeze around daybreak this morning, highlighted with a mention of
VCSH beginning 15Z. Recent runs of the HRRR and HREF indicated
that a broken band of showers and thunderstorms will develop
near, perhaps just inland, of the terminals after 16Z. Storm
motions should remain limited to 5 to 10 kts. Each TAF will
feature a PROB30 until late this afternoon for TSRA. Showers
should dissipate with the loss of heating around sunset this
evening.

Extended Aviation Outlook: TEMPO flight restrictions possible with
showers and thunderstorms at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals during the
afternoon hours into the middle of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and tonight: High pressure centered over the western Atlantic
will remain remain over the marine zones. As a result, winds will
generally remain from the SSE through the period, favoring speeds
between 10 to 15 kts. Slight increases in wave heights may occur
through today, peaking overnight between 3 to 5 ft.

Monday through Thursday: Conditions are forecast to remain below
Small Craft Advisory criteria into the middle of next week, with
daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. High pressure to the
east will drive onshore ESE flow each day, with wind speeds mostly
topping out in the 10-15 knot range. Each afternoon and evening
there could be some local enhancement along the land/sea interface
with the diurnal sea breeze. Seas will average 2-4 feet through the
period.

Rip Currents: A modest easterly swell around 3ft/8s and sea breeze
influences each afternoon will keep the rip current risk in the
moderate category at all area beaches through Monday.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

APT/NED