North Charleston, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

109
FXUS62 KCHS 062348
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
648 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation section has been updated to reflect the 00z aviation
forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Scattered to numerous showers and a few embedded
  thunderstorms are expected ahead of a cold front through the
  early evening.

- 2) Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures expected this
  weekend and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered to numerous showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms are expected ahead of a cold front through the
early evening.

Current surface analysis (06/18z) suggests that the cold front
is entering the interior of the forecast area. The front is
expected to steadily move through the forecast area this
afternoon and offshore this evening. There is good model
agreement that the scattered to possibly numerous showers and
even a few thunderstorms will accompany the front, and current
radar already depicts some isolated to scattered ongoing
activity. The most coverage is expected further north and will
primarily impact southeast SC and more specifically Colleton
County and the Charleston Tri- County region. Regarding
thunderstorm potential, temperatures warming into the low 80s
coincident with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s will be
sufficient to yield MLCAPE values into the 1,000-1,500 J/kg
range. So, we will likely see a few thunderstorms with the best
chances in the area of greatest coverage previously mentioned.
Wind fields are not particularly impressive and the best forcing
and severe environment is expected to remain off to the north
across the Pee Dee, Grand Strand, and eastern NC. Rainfall
potential remains limited, with moderate potential for amounts
into the 0.25-0.50" range with the best coverage and presence of
thunderstorms. Elsewhere, localized amounts of 0.10-0.25" will
be more likely. Any remaining showers and thunderstorms will
shift offshore by the mid evening hours and the rest of the
overnight will be dry.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures
expected this weekend and into next week.

Behind the departing cold front, expansive high pressure is
expected to build in across the forecast area for the weekend
and continue into next week. The forecast is dry and no rainfall
is expected through the middle of the week. Saturday will bring
cooler temperatures, though highs should still get to around
climo normals for early November. Sunday could actually be
slightly below normal with a much cooler start than we have seen
recently. Sunday morning lows are forecast to be in the low to
mid 40s away from the coast, which should continue again Monday
and Tuesday mornings. Afternoon highs will rebound nicely each
day with widespread mid to upper 70s expected Monday through
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front has pushed offshore this evening with light rain
showers exiting the area. VFR conditions should return to all
aviation sites over the next hour as winds turn northerly
overnight. There is some potential that around daybreak some
MVFR to IFR ceilings and possibly a few instances of reduced
visibilities could spread along an north of I-26 including KCHS
and KJZI around daybreak. As a result, we have introduced
lowered ceilings to the TAF for a couple of hours from around
09Z to 12Z before returning back to VFR for the remainder of the
forecast.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through tonight: A cold front will shift into the local waters
this afternoon and evening, moving off to the east through the
overnight. Ahead of the front, southwest winds should top out in
the 10-15 knot range. Behind the front, winds will turn more
northerly and could get as high as 15-20 knots. Seas are
expected to remain 2-4 feet through the evening before
increasing up to around 5 feet in the outer GA waters by sunrise
Saturday.

Saturday through Wednesday: Northeast winds could be as high as
high as 15-20 knots at times through Sunday morning.
Thereafter, winds and seas should gradually diminish into early
next week with generally quiet conditions and no marine hazards
expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

November 6:
KCXM: 81/2003
KSAV: 86/2018

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

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