North Augusta, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

116
FXUS62 KCAE 221837
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
237 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper ridging establishes itself over the eastern CONUS
bringing an early week warming trend. Hot and humid conditions,
and dangerous heat index values, are expected during the mid-
week period under the continued influence of the upper ridge.
Rain chances increase later in the week as ridging should begin
to break down.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

-  Warming trend begins today with above normal temperatures.

Upper ridge axis has become entrenched over the OH/TN Valley
and Mid-Atlantic region. Atmospheric moisture is slightly below
normal with satellite derived PWATs around 1.2-1.4 inches
across the forecast area. Forecast soundings indicate a strong
subsidence inversion around 700mb which is limiting convective
development and a dry forecast continues. High temps expected
in the mid 90s.

Tonight, mostly clear skies expected but the very warm air mass
will be slow to cool and expect overnight lows in the lower to
mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Heat continues to build into the region with near Heat
  Advisory Heat Indices Tuesday and Wednesday.

The center of the strong upper level ridge will shift over the Mid-
Atlantic Monday. NAEFS mean indicates that 500mb heights will be
near the climatological max for this time of year for both Monday
and Tuesday as heat continues to build over the forecast area.
Temperatures rise as a result into the mid to upper 90s with heat
indices rising into the triple digits. Confidence is relatively high
that heat indices stay below heat advisory criteria but HREF
indicate 30 to 40 percent probability of heat indices 105F or
greater, so we will likely be close. Surface high pressure just off
the coast will also help to promote broad subsidence over the area
which will limit convective chances, although a shower or two
remains possible but most of the area remains dry.

Tuesday, heat is expected to continue to build in with slightly
higher chances to reach heat advisory criteria Tuesday or Wednesday
(although still not a lock). Tuesday and Wednesday will likely be
the hottest days of the period, with a slight increase in moisture
expected as well. Both days are highlighted in the EC Extreme
Forecast Index with values greater than 0.8 across the entire area
which indicates a high temperature anomaly with highs likely near
triple digits. Blended guidance typically struggles in keeping dew
points too high in these anomalously hot events which is why there
remains a question as to whether a heat advisory will be needed.
GEFS has also indicated a bit higher PWATs compared to early runs
Tuesday and Wednesday and possibly some weaknesses in the ridge.
This may allow for some convection to develop either day, although
confidence remains low.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Upper ridging may begin to break down during the extended,
  with an increase chance for afternoon and evening convection.

GEFS and EC ensemble mean trends have been showing a weakening
in upper level riding over the last several runs over the
forecast area. This will likely lead to highs a few degrees
cooler for the end of the week and into the weekend, although
blended guidance still favors highs above average with heat
indices near 100F. Not much of a relief from the heat by any
means but likely will not need a heat advisory in the extended.
LREF probabilities indicate a around 50 percent chance for PWATs
to exceed 1.8 inches Thursday and Friday with higher
probabilities for the weekend. This, along with weakening in the
ridge will lead to chances for diurnal showers and storms each
day in the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected most of the TAF period.

High pressure continues to build overhead with satellite imagery
showing fair weather cumulus across the region. No expectation
of convection impacting terminals. Variable winds around 5 knots
through this evening then diminishing to near calm overnight
before picking back up but remaining light from the west around
5 knots. FOg/stratus chances look lower tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Next week looks to be on the drier
side with minimal restrictions expected at this time.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$