Moncks Corner, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

989
FXUS62 KCHS 111939
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
339 PM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will push offshore tonight. High pressure
will then prevail into Monday. Another cold front will push
through the region Tuesday. A storm system could impact much of
the Southeast U.S. Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Late this afternoon and this evening: Radar imagery shows
scattered showers developing just upstream across central GA and
the SC Midlands. Instability is quite weak and so far these
showers are quiet unimpressive. But, the coverage is more than
previously anticipated so we have increased rain chances in
percentage and overall coverage. We carry thunderstorms in the
grids, though we anticipate it will be mostly showers. If we can
get a thunderstorm to develop there is enough mid-level flow
and DCAPE to yield a gusty wind threat. Still think the severe
threat is very low given the lack of instability.

Tonight: The upstream front should push into the area and reach
the coast by approximately midnight and northerly flow will
prevail thereafter. Any lingering shower or thunderstorm
activity should push offshore by late evening and the rest of
the overnight will be dry. Lows are forecast to reach as low as
the mid 40s across the inland tier, with upper 40s to low 50s
along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday: The base of a sharp upper trough over the eastern
CONUS will traverse the area on Saturday as high pressure over
the Mid- Mississippi Valley builds east. A weak northwest-
southeast oriented surface trough induced by a weakness downwind
of the Southern Appalachians will result in an ill-defined low-
level confluence zone aligned along the Savannah River by early
afternoon. The atmosphere looks too dry in the downslope flow to
support any measurable rainfall along and to the north of the
confluence zone, even as forcing associated with the left exit
region of an approaching jet spreads in late. Highs will warm
into the upper 60s/lower 70s with no semblance of a sea breeze
expected within a modest offshore flow regime. Modest
radiational cooling is expected Saturday night as the boundary
layer decouples after sunset and the center of the high
propagates into the Southern Appalachians. The cooler side of
the 11/12z guidance as favored with local mesoscale adjustments
made in some of the normally colder locations such as the
Francis Marion National Forest. Lows will drop into the lower
40s well inland to the mid 50s at the beaches and barrier
islands.

Sunday and Monday: Subtropical ridging will briefly build over
the area Sunday before flattening out Monday in response to
shortwave energy propagating across the Northern Plains and
Great Lakes regions. The pressure gradient between high pressure
centered off the Southeast U.S. coast and an approaching cold
front will begin to tighten Monday. Winds could get breezy at
the beaches, especially along the Charleston County coast. Rain-
free conditions will continue with highs reaching the mid 70s
away from the beaches Sunday, then warm into the lower-mid 80s
Monday. Lows Sunday night will range from the upper 40s inland
to the lower 60s at the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tuesday: A cold front will cross the area Tuesday as shortwave
energy passes by to the north. The degree of moisture return
ahead of the front remains unclear and its very likely the front
will pass through dry. Some guidance members do generate a few
showers along/ahead of the wind shift, but there is not enough
evidence to deviate from 11/13z NBM`s depiction of silent 5-10%
pops at this time. Future forecast updates may need to introduce
some mentionable pops at some point. Lows Tuesday morning will
drop into the upper 50s/lower 60s with highs Tuesday topping out
in the lower-mid 80s.

Wednesday through Friday: High pressure will dominate Wednesday
and Thursday. Rain chances will increase Friday as the next
cold front pushes through. Temperatures will average near to
slightly above normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The 18z TAF period begins with VFR conditions at KCHS, KJZI,
and KSAV. Later this afternoon and early this evening there is a
low end chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm, mainly
across southeast SC. The potential for a direct impact at KCHS
or KJZI still appears very low so we have not included any
mention in the TAF`s. Winds will be breezy this afternoon, with
gusts into the 15-20 knot range at times. A front will move
through late tonight and winds will turn more northerly.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: A cold front will shift through the local waters and
winds will turn northwesterly after midnight and more northerly
by sunrise Saturday. Expect a modest surge with winds peaking in
the 15-20 knot range. Seas should mostly average 2-3 feet, with
up to 4 feet possible in the outer waters late in the period.

Saturday through Wednesday: Conditions across the local marine
area will remain fairly quiet through the period. Winds will get
a little gusty Monday into Tuesday as a cold front approaches
and eventually pushes through the region. Gusts near 25 kt will
be possible in the nearshore waters from South Santee River to
Edisto Beach Monday into Monday night and expanding into the
Georgia offshore waters out 20-60 NM Tuesday. Small Craft
Advisories may be needed during this time.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH