Lexington, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

900
FXUS62 KCAE 221523 AAA
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1123 AM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper ridging establishes itself over the eastern CONUS this
weekend with an early week warming trend. Hot and humid
conditions, and dangerous heat index values, are expected during
the mid-week period under the continued influence of the upper
ridge. Rain chances increase later in the week as ridging should
begin to break down.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Message(s):

-  Warming trend begins today with above normal temperatures.

Upper ridge axis has migrated to the OH/TN Valley and Mid-
Atlantic region as the first real heat wave of the season begins
today. Atmospheric moisture is slightly below normal with
satellite derived PWATs around 1.2-1.4 inches across the
forecast area. Satellite imagery showing some passing high
clouds and developing cumulus as temperatures rise through the
mid 80s already and reaching convective temps. Forecast
soundings indicate a strong subsidence inversion around 700mb
which should limit convection today to be less than it was on
Saturday, therefore continuing a dry forecast. High temps
expected in the mid 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Dry conditions with heat and humidity combining to produce
  dangerous heat index values near advisory criteria.

Should be a bit of rinse and repeat this evening and overnight,
with lows in the low 70s and the potential for some patchy fog.

High confidence regarding the evolution of the strong upper
ridging during the short term, which is expected to be in firm
control of the weather pattern across the eastern CONUS through
Wednesday. Strong subsidence will result in a warming trend as
temperatures rise to around 100 degrees on Tuesday and
Wednesday. There is a high likelihood for dangerously high heat
index values which will approach our Heat Advisory criteria of
108 degrees or higher for two or more hours. Continued the trend
of lowering both T and Td grids from the NBM, which had high
temperatures in excess of 100 degrees on Tuesday and Wednesday,
quite the feat for our CWA this time or year without an ongoing
drought. After these adjustments, resultant heat index values
were in excess of 100 degrees every day, with Wednesday showing
the highest potential for some locations to meet or exceed the
108 mark. Regardless of whether criteria is met for heat
products, caution should be used when outside during peak
heating early this week.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Upper ridging may begin to break down during the extended,
  with an increase chance for afternoon and evening convection.

Hot and humid conditions are expected to continue for much of
the long term. Strong upper ridging is shown to break down in
the guidance, allowing for slightly cooler but still above
normal temperatures. If the ridge breaks down as modeled in some
of the guidance, the threat of afternoon and evening convection
should return, though the probability of precipitation remains
low, less than 30 percent, during the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected most of the TAF period.

Morning restrictions have dissipated and VFR conditions expected
through the remainder of the day. Another SCT-BKN cumulus field
should develop this afternoon, but precip chances remain low.
Surface winds once again ELY/SELY less than 10 kts. Winds
tonight into Monday morning then light and variable to calm.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal shower and thunderstorm
activity is possible to end the weekend, which could bring
associated restrictions. Next week looks to be on the drier side
with minimal restrictions expected at this time.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$