Lexington, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

441
FXUS62 KCAE 191702
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
102 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and muggy tonight as the region remains under the influence
of ridging aloft. The high heat and humidity continues Sunday and
Monday, with Heat Advisory conditions possible both days.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the north this
evening and again on Sunday, followed by increased convective
coverage Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures return to normal for
mid-week followed by another wave of heat to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Isolated showers possible north early this evening, otherwise dry.
- Warm and somewhat muggy again overnight.

Upper ridge remains centered south of the forecast area and will
continue to slowly retrograde westward overnight. Meanwhile, a weak
shortwave will track on the north side of the ridge, moving across
the northern counties late this afternoon/evening. Some isolated to
scattered showers and storms will continue to develop across the
higher elevations of the upstate regions of both SC/GA ahead of this
shortwave, but majority of the near term guidance keeps the bulk of
any activity moving across northern SC and into NC. Will have a few
hours of measurable rain potential north this evening, then all
areas return to a dry forecast overnight with loss of heating. After
seeing some lower dewpoints due to mixing through the day, a slight
recovery will occur overnight.  With lows in the middle 70s
forecast, somewhat muggy conditions will remain late tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Hot and humid with near Heat Advisory criteria both days,
  especially on Monday.

- A few thunderstorms possible on Sunday, especially in the
  Northern Midlands, with more coverage possible on Monday.

Upper ridging and associated surface high pressure will be
centered over the northern Gulf at the start of the period,
gradually shifting westward through the short term. This pattern
should result in continued above normal temperatures across the
FA, pushing heat indices over the 100 degree mark. Like today,
there should be sufficient mixing to prevent the issuance of a
Heat Advisory on Sunday, therefore no products are being issued
with this forecast package. Will need to monitor trends to
determine if a Heat Advisory will be needed on Monday,
particularly in parts of the CSRA. While the influence of the
ridge weakens on Monday, the main source of uncertainty
regarding heat index values comes from the increase in moisture
and rain chances around the periphery of departing high
pressure. The greatest chance of showers and thunderstorms on
both days will be across the Northern Midlands as a trough
swings through New England and Atlantic Canada and a cold front
sags south towards the forecast area. The front may provide
enough lift to promote the development of a few strong
thunderstorms. The Day 3 SPC SWO places the entire CWA in a
Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather with damaging winds as
the primary severe hazard.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures and lower heat
  index values expected for the mid-week period.
- Rain chances are highest on Tuesday, before drier air moves
  in from the north for Wednesday and Thursday.

Tuesday should be cooler and cloudier as the front slowly pushes
south through the FA in response to high pressure building into
New England. Rain chances are unsurprisingly the highest on
Tuesday. Should the boundary fully slip to our south, as
suggested by the 12Z GFS, rain chances will be low for the
remainder of the extended. Having said that, we will need to
watch the remnant boundary and tropical moisture to see if it is
able to surge back to the north and increase our chance of
showers and thunderstorms. With a cooler, drier air mass in
place, temperatures should continue to be near seasonal values
Wednesday and Thursday, perhaps increasing once again towards
the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR Conditions Likely the Next 24 Hours.

Upper ridge centered off to the south of the area will continue to
slowly retrograde and move westward into Sunday.  Region will see
some scattered cumulus through the afternoon, with bases remaining
vfr.  Best chance for an isolated shower/storm will remain north of
all taf locations, so no mention of precip at this time.  Winds
through the afternoon remain west to southwest, mainly around 10
knots with a few higher gusts.  Winds diminish tonight again, going
light to calm. Guidance continues to show to restrictions overnight
and into Sunday.  Can not rule out the usual patchy ground fog at
ags/ogb, but confidence is low in formation so vfr conditions
forecast a all taf locations.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Mainly isolated showers and storms
through Sunday. Seasonal chances of patchy early morning fog/stratus
through the extended. Rain chances increase early next week ahead of
an approaching surface boundary.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$