Greenwood, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

173
FXUS62 KGSP 050629
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
229 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
SPC expanded the marginal risk for severe weather across nearly the
entire GSP forecast area for this afternoon and early evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Hot and humid conditions will return each day east of the
mountains this week. Those with outdoor plans should stay hydrated
and take frequent breaks in air-conditioned or shaded areas. Do
not leave children or pets in unattended vehicles. Car interiors
will reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes.
2. Coverage of diurnal showers and thunderstorms increases for
all areas early this week before coverage becomes more confined
to the mountains mid to late week. Per usual, a few storms could
become strong to severe during peak heating hours, with the main
hazard being damaging wind gusts. Make sure you have multiple
ways to receive warnings, especially if you have outdoor plans.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Hot and humid conditions will return each day east of
the mountains this week. Those with outdoor plans should stay
hydrated and take frequent breaks in air-conditioned or shaded
areas. Do not leave children or pets in unattended vehicles. Car
interiors will reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes.

Although portions of the Charlotte Metro and the Upper Savannah
River Valley could flirt with Heat Advisory criteria this afternoon
with the return of higher dewpoints, coverage of convection should
help limit heat indices. So, even if these areas manage to reach
advisory criteria (which starts at 105) it should remain brief.
Thus, opted not to issue a Heat Advisory for today in collaboration
with neighboring WFOs. The same thinking also applies to Monday
regarding heat indices.

With the worst of the oppressive airmass finally behind us, we will
go into more of a typical summertime pattern as the Bermuda High
sets up over the western Atlantic. This will help keep low-level
flow mostly SW`ly through the week, which will allow dewpoints to
range from the upper 60s to lower 70s east of the mountains. With
highs east of the mountains expected to range from the lower to mid
90s each afternoon (starting Monday) and lows each night only
falling into the lower to mid 70s, expect warm and muggy nights and
hot and humid days to continue this week.


Key message 2: Coverage of diurnal showers and thunderstorms increases
for all areas early this week before coverage becomes more confined
to the mountains mid to late week. Per usual, a few storms could
become strong to severe during peak heating hours, with the main
hazard being damaging wind gusts. Make sure you have multiple ways
to receive warnings, especially if you have outdoor plans.

The aforementioned Bermuda High will work with fairly persistent
upper troughing over the Eastern CONUS to bring better coverage of
mostly diurnal convection through at least early this week. Slightly
drier conditions may return behind a cold front Wednesday into
Friday per the global models and per the latest NBM, which mostly
show convection being confined to the mountains during this
timeframe. The NBM and global models then show the potential for all
areas to see better chances for convection next weekend but
confidence is low at this time with this being towards the end of
the forecast period.

Regarding the severe weather potential, SPC expanded the Marginal
Risk for this afternoon and early evening across nearly the entire
GSP forecast area. This seems reasonable as both global models and
00Z CAMs depict around 1,500-2,500 J/kg of SBCAPE developing during
peaking heating hours. With only 10-15 kts of deep layer shear
expected (as we often see this time of year) damaging winds from
microbursts will be the main hazard with any severe storms that
develop. We should have a fairly similar environment in place for
Monday. However, confidence is fairly low regarding the coverage of
storms today as the majority of the 00Z CAMs show isolated to
scattered activity at best while the 00Z HRRR shows numerous showers
and thunderstorms developing during peak heating. Confidence on
coverage on Monday is higher as 00Z CAMs appear to be in better
agreement. Chances for severe storms will continue into Tuesday as
1,500-2,500 J/kg of SBCAPE will be in place during peak heating
again, per the global models. The one change is that deep layer
shear will increase slightly ahead of the front on Tuesday, ranging
from 20-30 kts. Thus, a more organized severe threat could
materialize Tuesday afternoon/evening ahead of the front. Although
lower wind shear should return behind the front the rest of the
week, we should see decent destabilization each afternoon/evening so
the isolated severe weather potential will stick around.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry and VFR through the 06Z TAF period
outside of patchy morning fog/low stratus and TSRA this afternoon
and evening. Maintained PROB30s for TSRA and associated restrictions
across all terminals rather than upgrading to TEMPOs as 00Z high-res
model guidance sources are not in agreement regarding the overall
coverage of convection. Hopefully the 06Z high-res guidance will
paint a more consistent picture. Have some patchy fog impacting the
Little TN valley as well as KHKY this morning. Have a TEMPO at KHKY
for IFR vsbys the next 4 hours. Confidence is low on whether fog
will stick around through daybreak at KHKY. However, confidence is
high that mountain valley fog/stratus will expand and thicken
through daybreak, especially across the Little TN Valley. Fog and
stratus are not expected to make it to KAVL. Wind direction should
stay mostly calm to light and VRB at KAVL through the period. Winds
east of the mountains will remain calm to light and VRB through the
morning hours before picking up out of the S/SW by early afternoon.
Winds east of the mountains appear to go VRB late afternoon/early
evening before going calm again overnight. However, KCLT should see
S/SW winds return by early evening.

Outlook: Mainly afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorm chances
will continue through early this week. Afternoon/evening shower and
thunderstorm chances will become more confined to the mountains mid
to late week. Low stratus and/or fog will be possible each morning
in the mountain valleys and in locations that see appreciable
rainfall the previous afternoon/evening.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 07-05

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      96 1948     71 1976     70 2024     46 1967
                                        2018        1933
   KCLT     101 2024     66 1892     78 2024     57 1967
   KGSP     101 2024     70 1976     78 2016     58 1967
                                                    1933
                                                    1892

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

AR