Goose Creek, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

563
FXUS62 KCHS 150834
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
434 AM EDT Tue Apr 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front will move through the region today. High
pressure will then build into the southeastern states on
Wednesday and prevail into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: Aloft, a trough will advance across the Appalachian Mountains
early morning, with h5 shortwave energy eventually passing across
the local area late day. At the sfc, a cold front associated with
the eastward advancing trough will arrive this afternoon, although
is expected to be dry while passing across the local area given poor
convergence and rather modest moisture levels above large dewpt
depressions near the sfc. At this time, all areas are expected to
remain rain-free for the day, but scattered to broken low-mid lvl
clouds are possible as the front arrives within a modest swath of
moisture off the sfc this afternoon. A deep westerly flow along with
compressional heating in advance of the front will result in another
warm day with highs peaking in the low-mid 80s, although temps will
likely be cooling mid afternoon across inland areas once fropa
occurs from west to east. Breezy conditions are also expected ahead
of the front with sfc heating promoting a well mixed layer into low-
lvl wind fields around 40-45 kt. Southwest/west winds gusting up to
20-30 mph are possible late morning and afternoon. Winds across Lake
Moultrie will be close to Lake Wind Advisory criteria for a few
hours as well, but currently are forecast to remain just below these
levels.

Tonight: High pressure will spread across the region behind a cold
front departing the region well offshore. West winds could remain a
bit gusty (15-20 mph) early evening, but should gradually turn
northwest and weaken below 10-15 mph by mid evening. Dry conditions
and clear skies will support cooler conditions, with lows generally
dipping into the mid-upper 40s inland to low-mid 50s near the
beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ridging aloft will build into the central CONUS on Wednesday,
yielding northwesterly flow aloft across the forecast area. The
ridging will shift eastward through the end of the week, positioning
itself over the southeastern states by Friday. At the surface high
pressure initially centered over the Deep South on Wednesday will
similarly shift eastward, shifting just off the SC/NC coast by
Friday. Overall a quiet forecast is expected, with virtually no rain
chances and warming temperatures. Dew points were trended downwards
on Wednesday afternoon as the downsloping flow aloft will likely
result in a drier airmass. High temperatures on Wednesday are
forecast to reach into the low to mid 70s. As high pressure builds
into the region highs will reach into the low to mid 80s by Friday.
At night light to calm winds and clear skies will allow for
radiational cooling and resultant cooler low temperatures,
particularly on Wednesday night when the forecast features mid 40s
far inland and low 50s along the coastline.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ridging aloft and surface high pressure will continue to dominate
the synoptic pattern through the weekend. Early next week a low
pressure system is forecast to traverse from the southwestern states
towards the Great Lakes region. At this juncture the forecast only
features slight chance PoPs as there is model disagreement in how
close the feature gets to the southeastern states. Otherwise, high
temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend and into
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 06Z
Wednesday. However, LLWS is expected at CHS/JZI terminals until sfc
winds increase around 1330Z this morning. Gusty west-southwest
upwards to 25-30 kt are possible at the terminals this afternoon,
then are expected to turn more northwest late afternoon with cold
fropa, then decrease to around 10 kt or less around 02Z Wednesday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: An enhanced pressure gradient will persist across local
waters between high pressure centered near the Bahamas and a cold
front approaching from the northwest. In general, southwest winds
between 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt will be common outside
nearshore Georgia waters. A few gusts to around 30 kt are possible
off the Charleston County Coast, where the pressure gradient is
stronger and 40-45 kt low-lvl wind fields track across local waters
before fropa. Small Craft Advisories will be ongoing for all coastal
waters outside nearshore Georgia waters as result, although
conditions in the CHS Harbor will initially start out below criteria
until daytime heating/mixing begins mid-late morning. The cold front
is anticipated to shift offshore mid-afternoon, turning winds more
west-northwest in its wake, but gusty winds around 25 kt should
persist into early evening. Seas will gradually build during the
day, generally in the 2-4 ft range across southern South Carolina
and Georgia nearshore waters, and 3-5 ft across outer Georgia waters
and northern South Carolina nearshore waters. A few 6 footers are
possible across northern South Carolina nearshore waters prior to
fropa this afternoon.

Tonight: The pressure gradient will weaken considerably and stronger
low-lvl wind fields will shift well offshore with a cold front
advancing further east across the Atlantic. West-northwest winds
should tip more northwest during the evening and decrease to below
Small Craft Advisory thresholds, although wind gusts near 25 kt
could persist across outer Georgia waters for a few hours longer
than current advisories ending at 8 PM. Otherwise, expect northwest
winds gusting to 15-20 kt outside the Charleston Harbor during the
night. Seas will subside through the night, generally to 1-3 ft
nearshore and 3-4 ft across outer Georgia waters.

Wednesday through Sunday: High pressure will build into the region
through the end of the week and into the weekend. Prevailing high
pressure will yield tranquil marine conditions, with winds around 10
to 15 knots and seas averaging 2 to 4 ft. Gusts along the direct
coastline and the Charleston Harbor could surge each afternoon to
around 20 knots due to the afternoon sea breeze.

Rip Currents: The Charleston beaches are right on the cusp of a
Moderate Risk today, given breakers up to 3 feet and gusty winds
between 20-25 kt. The other beaches have a little smaller breaker
wave action, so Low Risk is forecast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
While there is stronger winds today than the previous day, RH levels
won`t be quite as low, even though dewpts were lowered below most
guidance, which is typical in deep offshore regimes. Winds will be
much weaker Wednesday, but critical RH values (20-25%) are possible
away from coastal areas, especially across inland Georgia.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ330-
     350-352-374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...CPM
LONG TERM...CPM
AVIATION...CPM/DPB
MARINE...CPM/DPB