Goose Creek, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

379
FXUS62 KCHS 141940
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
Issued by National Weather Service Columbia SC
340 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Broad high pressure will remain across the area through early
next week, resulting in generally hot and dry conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
This afternoon: At 250 MB an upper level low that has been over
the Tennessee Valley for several days has finally started to
eject northeast. The best upper level ageostrophic divergence
has since translated to North Carolina and southern Virgina.
Across South Carolina and Georgia, we have transitioned to broad
upper level ageostrophic convergence. PWATs are around 1.50"
with ML CAPE values in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. A sea breeze
can also be seen moving inland across the Georgia and South
Carolina coast. The highest chance of precipitation will be
across the Charleston Tri- County, or closer to the ageostrophic
divergence and upper level low. Current PoPs of 20 to 40%
remain on track from Colleton County into the Charleston Tri-
County (highest north of I-26). No precipitation is expected in
Georgia.

Tonight: Thunderstorms have also developed across the mountains
of North Carolina this afternoon and are tracking with the net
MBE storm motion to the southeast. Based on these storm
motions, storms should remain just north of the CWA as they
reach the Carolina coast late tonight. The upper level
environment will also continue to become more and more harsh to
storm maintenance as 500 MB heights rise and 250 MB
ageostrophic convergence continues. Low temperatures are
forecast to range from the mid 60s inland to around 70 along the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thursday: As a mid-lvl trough shifts off the Eastern Seaboard,
strong upper-lvl ridging will begin to build across the Deep South
from the Gulf. At the surface, a dry, high pressure system will
build into the region, while a weak trough persists across the SC
Midlands. Due to upper-lvl ridging in place, any chance for shower
and thunderstorm development remains unlikely. Temperatures will
climb into the upper 80s to low 90s across the region, this will
make for several degrees above normal. Overnight lows will drop into
the upper 60s to low 70s.

Friday and Saturday: Expect a dry, warm weekend as high pressure
continues to govern the overall pattern for Friday and Saturday.
Temperatures will continue to be above normal, with highs reaching
into the low to mid 90s for both days. This combined with dewpoints
above normal will yield heat index values ~100-105F away from the
beaches. This remains below Heat Advisory Criteria, however this
will cause it to feel fairly miserable outside this weekend.
Overnight lows will dip into the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper-lvl ridging will govern the overall pattern for the Southeast
through the weekend, with zonal flow in place as well. There is some
indication of a shortwave trough rippling through the zonal flow on
Sunday, along associated weak cold front passing through in the
evening. In general, it stays dry and quiet through the weekend with
possible showers returning on Sunday evening ahead of the
approaching front. Temperatures will be above average for this time
of year throughout the period and summer-like conditions should
continue.

Extended Aviation: Brief flight restrictions are possible on Sunday
with the passage of the weak cold front, otherwise prevailing
VFR.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
14/18z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through early Thursday afternoon. A few
tstms could pass north of KCHS and KJZI from mid-afternoon
through early evening. Storms would get closest to KCHS. VCTS
will be highlighted 21-00z to account for this.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and tonight: Southwest winds 10 to 15 kts will persist
through the period with some gusts approaching 25 kts. Seas
should generally range between 2-4 ft.

Thursday through Monday: As high pressure governs the pattern, quiet
marine conditions are expected into early next week. Southeasterly
swell should be on tap for the next several days and allow for a
somewhat decent surf to develop. Expect south-southwesterly winds
throughout the period with seas generally 2 to 3 ft.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haines/ ST
SHORT TERM...Dennis/Haines
LONG TERM...Dennis/Haines
AVIATION...Dennis/ST
MARINE...Dennis/Haines