Florence, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

238
FXUS62 KILM 121820
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
220 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to the east will produce more typical hot and
humid summertime conditions with afternoon and early evening
thunderstorms through mid to late week. A weak cold front should
drop down through the Eastern Carolinas Friday into the weekend
bringing relatively drier weather with fewer thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Convection has generally followed the analyzed arc of instability
from the I-95 corridor, northward along and north of US-74, and
southward along the coastal areas of northeastern SC and
southeastern NC. Cold pools generated by earlier convection and
amble debris clouds should bring an early end to showers and storms
for much of the area. Georgetown and Williamsburg counties have
enjoyed some sunshine this afternoon and afternoon convection could
re-develop here through the late afternoon or early evening hours.

Low level moisture following widespread rain this afternoon could
lead to areas of fog on Wednesday morning. Inland areas, especially
along the I-95 corridor will have the best chance of seeing fog due
to weak boundary layer winds. Fog may favor low clouds near the
coast with light boundary layer winds continuing overnight. Mild and
humid lows in the low to mid 70s.

Ridging over the southeastern US will allow sunshine and warm
weather to return to portions of the area on Wednesday. With weak
mid level energy riding the northern periphery of a weak ridge,
afternoon showers and thunderstorms should be focused over NC.
Isolated convection will be possible over northeastern SC,
particularly near the sea breeze and inland along the Piedmont
trough, but chances should decrease to the south. Highs back in the
upper 80s to around 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Southwesterly return flow will continue around high pressure to
the east. A trailing cold front, extending down from low
pressure moving eastward from the New England coast, will slowly
drop southward into the Carolinas through Thurs night. Deep
moisture will remain present ahead of this front with precip
water values up above 2 inches across much of the Eastern
Carolinas. In the mid to upper levels, the ridge centered near
the Bahamas will get suppressed farther south with shortwaves
riding around the deep westerly flow in the mid to upper levels.
Therefore, although deep moisture is present, convective
development and the timing of the convection will be based on
the front low level trough and shortwaves riding through the
area and of course, will be enhanced by daytime heating. Looks
like should be decent coverage into Wed evening and Thurs
aftn/eve ahead of front/trough dropping south. The westerly
steering flow will also drive convection eastward toward the
coast. Also, should see some morning fog or low clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will try and build in from the north on Fri, but
lingering front/low level trough may get held up with sea
breeze as weak low pressure may develop along it near or just
off the SC coast. This should remain the focal point for
shwrs/tstms Fri aftn, most likely remaining over eastern
and southern portions of the area. Models still showing drier
air building in for the weekend, initially in the mid to upper
levels late Fri, but working its way down with pcp water values
possibly dropping down closer to 1.6 inches with less convective
coverage through the weekend into early next week. Temps should
run above normal, especially with increasing sunshine probable
and dewpoints should drop a few degrees.

Current NHC forecast keeps Hurricane Erin on a westward to
slight northwestward track through the weekend, reaching north
of PR by Sunday. Models show Erin moving up between the east
coast and Bermuda around the 20th or so, but too early to know
with certainty and we will need to follow forecast updates from
the NHC. Right now, it looks like the greatest impact should be
the increasing chance of dangerous rip currents from swells
from distant Hurricane Erin, affecting our coast by early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Scattered convection is producing periodic restrictions for coastal
terminals this afternoon. ILM is likely to have the best chance of
prolonged IFR as showers push northeastward through the late
afternoon. While convection has impacted CRE/MYR previously, there
could be re-development of showers and storms over northeastern SC
this afternoon with VFR becoming likely after sunset. FLO/LBT are
likely to remain VFR until the early morning hours. Fog and low
stratus will plague the TAF sites on Wednesday morning. Confidence
is low on exactly where restrictions will occur, but best chance
appears inland due to weak boundary layer winds along the coast.

Extended Outlook... Periodic flight restrictions are expected with
convection each afternoon and evening. Fog and low stratus could
also cause brief restrictions each morning as transition back to a
more typical summer-like weather pattern starting mid to late this
week. Unsettled weather may return this weekend behind a stalled
offshore frontal boundary.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday...S and SW flow will remain light through
late Wednesday. Seas around 2-3 feet. Showers and thunderstorms
over the nearshore waters will persist through this evening,
decreasing in coverage on Wednesday morning.

Wednesday night through Saturday...Expect fairly light SW
return flow around high pressure centered east of our local
waters from Tues night through Thu night, with a slight uptick
each aftn in sea breeze. You will also see an offshore flow
overnight in land breeze and onshore during the aftn/eve due to
sea breeze, closer to the coast. By Fri, a front nears the
Eastern Carolinas and it should drop through the waters Fri
night with a wind shift to the NE for the weekend.

Seas will remain in the 2 to 4 ft range. Should see a bit of an
increase in winds and seas with NE push behind front through
the latter half of the weekend. Not expecting any SCA conditions
at this time. If Erin remains on track, should see increasing
long period swells up to 16 seconds reaching our waters by early
next week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...21
MARINE...RGZ/21