Five Forks, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

977
FXUS62 KGSP 062343
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
643 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated for Aviation Discussion.  Made some minor tweaks to precip
probs thru Saturday afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A few thunderstorms will be possible through this evening, and
again Saturday afternoon. More numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected Saturday evening and Sunday. A small risk of damaging
wind may transpire Saturday evening.
2. Warm and well above normal with mainly diurnal convection
each day through the middle of next week. Cooler temperatures
and better coverage of convection returns Thursday into Friday
in association with a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: A few thunderstorms will be possible through this
evening, and again Saturday afternoon. More numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected Saturday evening and Sunday. A small
risk of damaging wind may transpire Saturday evening.

Isolated thunderstorms were on the downward trend as of 2330Z,
though the environment retains most-unstable CAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg. Cannot rule out additional convection into the mid/late
evening mainly closer to the Blue Ridge Escarpment, so a small
chance will be kept there. The risk of severe storms appears to
be low.

Otherwise, a warm and humid, weakly forced regime reminiscent of
late spring will remain over the Southeast through Saturday; key
features will be the Bermuda anticyclone and a deep trough centered
over the Rockies. That trough will shear apart Saturday, leaving a
northern stream shortwave which progresses toward the Great Lakes
and a cutoff low near Baja California. The advance of the northern
wave will bring a cold front into our vicinity by early Sunday,
which then stalls. Prior to the front, 700mb and 500mb heights
over NC/SC/GA remain above the 95th percentile of climatology,
reflected in unusually warm temperatures. Southwest flow around
the ridge looks to maintain dewpoints in the upper 50s to around
60 in the Piedmont and mountain valleys through early Sunday.

Radiation stratus and some fog look to develop tonight, and/or
low stratus of Atlantic origin may creep as far north as
the I-85 corridor. With that moisture being trapped under the
aforementioned inversion, most guidance that develops the clouds
keeps them through the morning, delaying warming such that max
temps end up a few degrees cooler than Friday. This would delay
diurnal destabilization as well, and CAMs generally produce less
convection near peak heating than what they develop for today
(Friday). Lapse rates not having changed much and upper forcing
still lacking, if diurnal initiation is able to occur isolated
showers/storms could again result. Thus we feature PoPs at 20-30%
through late afternoon. Somewhat stronger 850 to 700mb flow will be
present in advance of the trough, so shear will be slightly more
capable of organizing any convection that develops. A convective
line is expected to move thru the lower OH and TN valleys Saturday
afternoon; its outflow could reach the mountains late in the
afternoon or early evening, and could initiate storms after
the diurnal peak. Accordingly PoPs increase to 60-80% over the
western half of the CWA Saturday evening, with 30-50% chances east
of there. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will be available so storms
could organize along the outflow, which would be the most likely way
severe weather (damaging wind) could materialize. This is the reason
the SPC Day 2 Marginal Risk extends into our CWA. The front settles
east of the mountains on Sunday, providing a continued focus for
precip and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Instability
will be slightly lower, although 0-6km bulk shear is slightly
higher, so a low severe risk cannot be ruled out.


Key message 2: Warm and well above normal with mainly diurnal
convection each day through the middle of next week. Cooler
temperatures and better coverage of convection returns Thursday into
Friday in association with a cold front.

Weak upper troughing lingers over the forecast area through
Wednesday night before upper ridging builds over the Southeast
Tuesday into Wednesday. Meanwhile, at the surface, the southwestern
periphery of a surface ridge will remain extended over the Southeast
through Wednesday. This will keep warm, well above normal
temperatures around as well as allow for the return of mainly
diurnal convection through Wednesday. Global models generally show
30-40 kts of deep layer shear returning each afternoon (mainly on
Monday and Tuesday), with at least a a few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE
developing during peak heating each day, with values generally
generally remain below 1,000 J/kg. These SBCAPE values appear to
line up well with the LREF and the NBM, with the NBM only showing
low probabilities (20%-30% or less) of exceeding 1,000 J/kg of
SBCAPE each afternoon (mainly along and south of I-85).

Upper ridging gradually breaks down late Wednesday into Thursday as
weak upper troughing tracks across the northern CONUS while an upper
low gradually weakens and opens into an upper trough as it pushes
out of Texas and tracks eastward across the Gulf Coast. At the
surface, a cold front will approach out of the west on Wednesday
before tracking across the forecast area wednesday night into
daybreak Thursday, allowing the southwestern periphery of the
surface ridge to gradually retreat eastward. This will allow for
better coverage of convection late Wednesday night into at least
Thursday night, possibly lingering through Friday (despite the front
pushing east of the GSP forecast area) as global models depict a
surface low developing along the frontal boundary. For now, it
appears that severe weather associated with the front/area of low
pressure will be low as guidance generally shows limited surface
instability developing, especially on Friday. Confidence of course
will remain low on any severe threat as trends still have time to
change with this being right at the end of the forecast period.
Cooler highs return Thursday, but will still end up several degrees
above normal. Below normal highs should return Friday, especially if
extensive cloud cover and widespread rain chances linger.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Convective trends are downward at issuance
time, so the only location that might have a chance in the
immediate term would be KAVL where a dying storm was moving past
to the NW. Otherwise, we will have widespread convective debris
clouds and wind mostly from the S to SW, but modified locally by
storm outflows. Late tonight, once again we look to the south
for development of a low cloud deck and/or fog that would move
in with the continuing light southerly flow. The boundary layer
is moist enough that the development of a ceiling restriction
during mid-morning is a decent bet as convection starts to bubble
up with some heating. By mid-afternoon the boundary layer should
deepen enough to lift the ceiling to VFR, if it hasn`t already
scattered out. The S to SW flow will continue with some gusts
possible in the afternoon. Guidance suggests a better chance of
more shower/thunderstorm activity in the late afternoon and early
evening as a front approaches from the west. However, only KAVL
and KAND warrant inclusion of a PROB30 thru 00Z Sunday, and KCLT
after that by virtue of the later end time. Wind will stay SW.

Outlook: The spring-like weather pattern will persist over the next
several days with patchy fog/low stratus expected each morning. A
stalling front will likely bring showers and associated flight
restrictions Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...


RECORDS FOR 03-07

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      82 1974     23 1920     61 1956     15 1960
   KCLT      85 1974     30 1899     63 2022     14 1899
                                        1956
   KGSP      83 1974     36 1920     62 1961     13 1901
                            1901        1956



RECORDS FOR 03-08

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      81 1974     23 1996     57 1921      8 1920
   KCLT      84 1974     36 1989     59 1946     16 1920
   KGSP      84 1974     35 1899     56 1921     14 1901
                                                    1899



RECORDS FOR 03-09

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      80 1974     22 1932     57 1964      8 1996
   KCLT      83 2009     30 1960     62 1925     16 1996
                1974                    1921
                1925
   KGSP      85 2009     29 1960     60 2009     16 1996
                                        1921



RECORDS FOR 03-10

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      76 1974     29 1932     58 1903     10 1996
                                                    1932
   KCLT      82 1974     36 1924     59 1903     17 1932
   KGSP      84 1974     39 1924     58 2009     17 1932
                                        1997



RECORDS FOR 03-11

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      79 1967     29 1924     55 2016     14 1934
                1925
   KCLT      83 2015     37 1960     60 1986     22 1969
                2009                                1934
                1990
   KGSP      84 2009     34 1960     60 1986     17 1969

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

AR/JCW/PM