Conway, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

922
FXUS62 KILM 141438
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1030 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather will remain quite unsettled today as a slow moving
upper low lifts north. Look for a drying trend Thursday through
Saturday with temperatures climbing to 10 to 15 degrees above
normal, with widespread daily highs in the 90s away from the
beaches. A weak but dry cold front is slated to pass late
Saturday with continued dry weather but not quite as warm Sunday
into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Storm initiation underway already as expected. CAPE values are
already exceeding 2000J/Kg in some locaes and LCLs are below 1000m
so even though we are only in the late morning hours cells may be on
the strong side with heavy rain and microburts. Later today as
updrafts mature a 1" hail threat should also materialize.
No changes are anticipated at this time.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mid to upper low will open up this morning with trough axis
swinging through the Carolinas later this afternoon into early
this evening. This will enhance shower and thunderstorm
activity later today. Looking at the model soundings, should see
best chc of storms later today into early evening with lapse
rates steepening giving rise to potential hail and gusty winds.
SPC has area outlined in a marginal risk. May even see enough
shortwave energy to keep storms going into tonight. Overall,
expect storms to be more scattered and localized in nature. A
deep SW flow will continue through today with winds veering to a
more westerly direction tonight as trough lifts off to the
north and east. High temps will be up around 80 with dewpoints
in the mid 60s. Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Will be under the influence of low amplitude upper ridging and
associated subsidence and downslope moisture scouring effect
trajectory during this period. Expect a drying trend along with
increasingly very warm temperatures this period. The upper ridge
axis extending from the NE Gulf to the Lower Great Lakes at the
start of this period, will slide eastward to the East Coast by
daybreak Fri and off the SE States Coast Fri night. With NW flow
aloft backing to the W by the end of this period, will keep
moisture tapping minimal. Various guidance illustrates max
temps Thu around 90 and low to mid 90s, away from the beaches,
Fri. Will be able to radiate out although may see weak to modest
low level jet keeping the boundary layer mixed each night.
Still looking at min temps in the 60s to around 70 Thu night and
70-75 Fri night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper ridge axis will be offshore from the SE States start of
this period. A sfc cold front will be situated just west of the
spine of the Appalachians at the start of this period. The sfc
pg will tighten across the FA ahead of the cold front as a lee
side trof develops ahead of the front. Will see breezy SW-W
winds Sat with max temps eclipsing 90, just not as warm as Fri.
Pcpn and clouds scour out pretty good after the cold front
pushes across the Appalachians, with only an isolated tstorm or
shower at best prior to the CFP late Sat or Sat night. For Sun
into next week, a closed low drops to the low and amplifying NE
States with an amplifying trof extending along the East Coast.
At the same time, an amplified upper ridging springs into action
along the entire length of the Mississippi River Valley. Flow
becomes northwest aloft while models potential indicate some
cooler air being filtered southward to the Carolinas from
Canadian high pressure north of the Great Lakes. Whether this
pans out we shall see. However, this NW flow aloft may be
subject to embedded vorts with associated convection pushing in
the vicinity Sun thru Mon. Too early to make a reflection in the
POP fields.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR will prevail through the morning with mid level clouds
across the area with spotty showers at times. Some MVFR
ceilings will come into play mainly after 14z as clouds and
convection chances increase. Have included probs for TSRA aftn
to early eve. Winds will remain out of the SSW generally 10 kts
or less through TAF period.

Extended Outlook...Improving conditions are expected Thursday
and Friday, with drier air bringing a return to VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through tonight...Small Craft Advisory will end very early this
morning for the northern waters. A persistent SW flow will
continue through the period up to 10 to 15 kts tonight. Seas
will come down from 4 to 6 ft to 3 to 4 ft by tonight with
diminishing SE swell of around 7 seconds.

Thursday through Sunday...SW winds to dominate this
period, initially around 15kt g20+ kt thru Thu night.
Diminishing Fri to aob 10 kt with the sfc pg relaxing. Later Fri
night, LLJ SW 20-25 kt will increase winds back to 10-15g20kt
and the tightening sfc pg Sat ahead of the front will likely see
a solid 15 to possibly 20 kt. Will see winds veer to westerly
immediately ahead and behind the cold front late Sat into Sun,
however sfc pressure pattern will return the SW winds later Sun
thru Sun night around 10 kt. Seas will generally remain in the 2
to 4 foot range for nearly the entire period. The SE to S swell
at 7+ second periods will dominate Thu thru Fri followed by SW
wind waves becoming more dominant Sat into Sun with an
underlying small SE swell at 8+ second period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for
the Pender and New Hanover County Beaches. Leftover SE-S 7 to 9
second period swell will continue to affect the area beaches
resulting with 2 to 4 foot surf conditions and a high rip
current risk threat. The 3 to 5 hour window centered around low
tide will be the time most susceptible for rip current activity.
Low tide this afternoon will occur around 300 pm EDT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MBB
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...DCH/RGZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...